2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[minionofmidas]

Something strike you as odd about this map?

And here's the final Hesse map:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something strike you as odd about this map?

One of the districts that went SPD in 2003 didn't this year?

[minionofmidas]

I *was* rounding when I calculated mandates. (Sigh of relief)

CDU 42, SPD 42, FDP 11, Greens 9, Left 6. 57-53. Much better (although a traffic light is still not off the table).

[minionofmidas]

Something strike you as odd about this map?

One of the districts that went SPD in 2003 didn't this year?

It's a new map, they reduced the size of the house slightly.

No, I'm just wondering about the comparatively strong SPD showing around Göttingen... *might* that be anything to do with the fact that Göttingen and Kassel is a single media market as far as newspapers go?

[minionofmidas]

As the CDU has 28 direct seats to the SPD's 27, there's 14 list MPs from the CDU and 15 from the SPD.
To demonstrate the relative uselessness of the direct seats, they had to go down to position 34 to fill the CDU seats (the woman vanquished by Ypsilanti is among those elected) and to position 31 to fill the SPD seats (*my* direct candidate was at no.29, so he's in too, for a total of four SPD and four CDU MdLs from Frankfurt, plus one Green, one FDP and no less than 3 Left.)

[minionofmidas]

Greens didn't win any precincts, but came second in one in the Gutleut, twenty in a fairly continous belt in the central and eastern North End just about spilling into Bornheim, the ridiculously low figure of 3 in Bockenheim, and just one postal precinct (same part of Bockenheim)... all of it to the SPD.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some useless (?) trivia:

- Assuming there is a change of government in Hesse, CDU/FDP have now lost their (theoretical) majority in the Bundesrat.

- This is the first time ever that the PDS/LINKE is represented in a majority of the German state parliaments (9 out of 16).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Map of the direct-seat results in Hesse.

[Tender Branson]

CDU beats SPD by 3.595 votes ! Recount ! *just kidding*

Are there any postal votes left to count ?

And if yes, which party are they (historically) benefitting ?

[minionofmidas]

In Göttingen area the SPD and CDU division is related to the Catholic -  Lutherian division in the area. Eichsfeld (Duderstadt) is traditionally and the protestant areas are traditionally SPD. It is interesting that in some circles the North Hesse is understood as some sort of rural periphery area of the Western Germany. 

True enough.

But Göttingen (three southernmost constituencies for the Landtag) was won by the CDU in the 1994 federals - unlike most of the country just north of that red blot.

[minionofmidas]

CDU beats SPD by 3.595 votes ! Recount ! *just kidding*

Are there any postal votes left to count ?

No.

(And they benefit the CDU - I'm 100% sure the SPD won day voting precincts yesterday.)

The CDU wants to lead a Grand Coalition now. Boddenberg has been a bit cagey about Koch's future, though.
The SPD wants to be joined by the FDP in a traffic light, but the FDP doesn't want to.
We shall see... this'll take a while.

[minionofmidas]

To extemporate on what I said about the uselessness of the direct vote...thanks to CDU and SPD  putting their direct candidates into the first 55 spots of the list anyways...

If there wasn't a direct vote and the lists were the same as they were, there'd be a total of 11 different MdLs - 7 for the CDU and 4 for the SPD.

Would have been elected that way:
Name (Party list spot / Constituency)
Claudia Ravensburg (CDU 35 / Frankenberg)
Klaus Dietz (CDU 37 / Wetterau East)
Frank Williges (CDU 38 / Kassel suburbs)
Roger Lenhart (CDU 39 / Groß-Gerau North)
Marion Petri (CDU 40 / Wiesbaden West)
Kurt Wiegel (CDU 41 / Vogelsberg)
Dirk Landau (CDU 42 / Eschwege)
Manfred Gönsch (SPD 34 / Hochtaunus West)
Roger Podstatny (SPD 37 / Frankfurt West)
Ulrike Alex (SPD 38 / Offenbach suburban Central)
Stephan Aurand (SPD 40 / Dill Valley)

Elected in their stead:
Hugo Klein (CDU 44 / Hanau suburbs)
Holger Bellino (CDU 46 / Hochtaunus East)
Hartmut Horka (CDU 49 / Offenbach suburban West)
Peter Stephan (CDU 50 / Bergstraße West)
Ralf-Norbert Bartelt (CDU 51 / Frankfurt West Central)
Tobias Utter (CDU 52 / Wetterau SW)
Alexander Bauer (CDU 53 / Bergstraße East)
Silke Tesch (SPD 43 / Biedenkopf)
Michael Paris (SPD 45 / Frankfurt East Central)
Dagmar Metzger (SPD 46 / Darmstadt South)
Wolfgang Decker (SPD 49 / Kassel East)

[minionofmidas]

Top five and Drop five Frankfurt precincts (also answers Tender's question on postal votes rather impressively)

CDU:
Sossenheim East postal 52.6
Zeilsheim postal 52.4
a precinct in north central Nied 52.2
southern Sachsenhausen postal precinct that includes the Lerchesberg 52.1
Seckbach North postal 51.3
...
Bockenheim just northwest of Hessenplatz 16.7
Round about the Prüfling in Bornheim 16.3
Just across Friedberger and Alleenring from the Fachhochschule 15.8
Just north of Merianplatz 15.2
Just southwest of Bornheim Mitte subway station 15.0 (latter three all in Nordend Ost)

SPD
Southeastern Hausen 52.7
Western Ben-Gurion-Ring (nominally Nieder-Eschbach) 52.1
Northernmost precinct in Höchst 51.0
South of Wöllstädter in Bornheim 49.3
neighboring precinct in Höchst 48.3
...
central West End postal 18.0 (that's in South)
Sachsenhäuser Berg postal 17.9 (that's in South)
central Sachsenhäuser Berg 16.9
postal including Lerchesberg 15.9
Lerchesberg 11.2

Greens
Between Schwarzburg and Nordend 27.3 (Nordend W)
Just Southeast of Bornheim Mitte 24.5 (Bornheim)
Across from the FH 24.0
Between Wieland and Neuhof 23.9 (Nordend W)
NW of Hessenplatz 23.4
...
Northernmost Nied 2.8
Southwesternmost Sossenheim 2.6
one in northern Zeilsheim 2.5
Zeilsheim postal 2.0
that same Nied precinct mentioned for the CDU 2.0

FDP
Lerchesberg 28.3
Central West End precinct holding West End Synagogue 24.6
neighboring, right by the Palmengarten 24.3
Westend North precinct including Grüneburgpark and Campus Westend 23.9
Dichterviertel (poshest bit of the Dornbusch) 23.8
...
Estateland precinct in North Sindlingen 3.3
one in Northern Griesheim right around the Mainzer 3.2
Sindlingen postal 3.1
same Sossenheim precinct that also hates the Greens 2.2
Jügesheimer Straße in Niederrad 2.1

Left
Riederwald postal 17.0
Jügesheimer 15.2
Northwestern Gutleut proper 15.0
Gallus near where my mom grew up, just east of the more westerly railroad tracks 14.5
Bockenheim just north of Adalbert 14.3
...
Lerchesberg 1.9
postal precinct including the Lerchesberg 1.7
Seckbach north postal 1.5
SW corner of Schwanheim 1.0
northern Eschersheim around Im Uhrig 0.0

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hesse totally resembles Germany right after the 2005 federal election.


The official stances of all parties (I hope I got that right now)...

CDU: Hasn't ruled out a coalition with the SPD or with the FDP and the Greens so far.

SPD: Rules out a coalition with the CDU or the Left. Favors a coalition with the Greens and the FDP.

FDP: Rules out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens. Considers a coalition with the CDU and the Greens.

Greens: Rule out a coalition with the Left. Reluctantly favor a coalition with the SPD and the FDP. I don't know what their stance concerning the CDU is or whether they even have an official one, but I guess they would rule a coalition with the CDU and the FDP too (since they already seem somewhat reluctant when it comes to a SPD/FDP/Green coalition).

Left: Is ready to cooperate with the SPD and the Greens.


EDIT: Most political scientists and experts seem to agree that the most likely outcome will be a CDU/SPD coalition in the end... without Roland Koch though. Often mentioned as a replacement is the current German defense minister Franz Josef Jung (whose homestate is Hesse).

The newly elected state parliament will first convene in early April. It might take at least until then for a coalition to be formed.

[minionofmidas]

"Greens: Rule out a coalition with the Left. Reluctantly favor a coalition with the SPD and the FDP. I don't know what their stance concerning the CDU is or whether they even have an official one, but I guess they would rule a coalition with the CDU and the FDP too (since they already seem somewhat reluctant when it comes to a SPD/FDP/Green coalition)."

Ruled out a coalition with the CDU. In rather clearer terms than one with the Left, actually.

[Middle-aged Europe]

"Greens: Rule out a coalition with the Left. Reluctantly favor a coalition with the SPD and the FDP. I don't know what their stance concerning the CDU is or whether they even have an official one, but I guess they would rule a coalition with the CDU and the FDP too (since they already seem somewhat reluctant when it comes to a SPD/FDP/Green coalition)."

Ruled out a coalition with the CDU. In rather clearer terms than one with the Left, actually.

Ah, thanks.

Roland Koch has now officially invited the SPD, the FDP and the Greens for coalition talks. The Hessian Greens are probably laughing their asses off that their arch-enemy Koch wants to form a government with them.

In other news, Franz Josef Jung had denied any intentions to become Koch's replacement as PM... so far (?).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Göttingen/Kassel thing shows up quite clearly. But what's with the big swing to the SPD in Salzgitter?

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Hessian SPD has officially declined the CDU's offer for coalition talks, saying there won't be a Grand coalition... neither with nor without Roland Koch. However, Andrea Ypsilanti has also said that she's willing to hold a "personal conversation" with Koch.

Wtf?


The SPD is either trying to force the FDP into a coalition this time or they want the CDU to begthem for a coalition... or both. Well let's see how they talk in a month from now.

[minionofmidas]

The Göttingen/Kassel thing shows up quite clearly. But what's with the big swing to the SPD in Salzgitter?

RE your question days ago about the one seat notionally lost by the SPD....

Goslar. Sigmar Gabriel's constituency.

[minionofmidas]

Hesse by Bundestag constituency, own calculations
List vote. Comparison is with 2005 Bundestag result.

Hesse
turnout 64.3 - CDU 36.8 (+3.1) - SPD 36.7 (+1.0) - FDP 9.4 (-2.3) - Greens 7.5 (-2.6) - Left 5.1 (-0.2)

Waldeck
turnout 63.7 - SPD 44.3 (+0.2) - CDU 32.2 (+2.0) - FDP 8.5 (-1.3) - Greens 5.9 (-1.6) - Left 5.4 (0)
Includes Waldeck, Kassel rural I except those two towns recently transferred in, and two towns (including Baunatal, the largest) from southwest corner of Kassel suburban rural II
Kassel
turnout 61.6 - SPD 44.5 (+0.6) - CDU 27.2 (+0.7) - Greens 9.9 (-2.0) - Left 7.6 (+0.8) - FDP 7.5 (-0.7)
City, remainder of rural district
Werra-Meißner / Hersfeld-Rotenburg
turnout 64.5 - SPD 45.0 (-0.3) - CDU 33.2 (+3.4) - FDP 7.2 (-1.5) - Left 5.6 (-0.3) - Greens 4.9 (-1.8)
Districts as titled
Schwalm-Eder
turnout 65.5 - SPD 44.2 (-0.8) - CDU 31.0 (+2.4) - FDP 9.1 (-0.8) - Greens 5.6 (-1.6) - Left 5.5 (-0.3)
Also includes Frankenberg
Marburg
turnout 64.3 - SPD 43.3 (+4.4) - CDU 32.5 (+0.6) - FDP 7.9 (-1.5) - Greens 7.0 (-3.1) - Left 5.9 (-0.3)
Marburg-Biedenkopf district
Lahn-Dill
turnout 60.1 - CDU 39.2 (+4.7) - SPD 38.4 (+1.1) - FDP 8.0 (-2.7) - Greens 4.8 (-2.7) - Left 4.7 (-1.0)
District, two towns from northwestern Gießen district
Gießen
turnout 64.7 - SPD 40.3 (+3.9) - CDU 34.0 (+2.0) - FDP 9.0 (-3.4) - Greens 6.3 (-3.7) - Left 4.9 (-0.9)
remainder of district, somewhat over half of Vogelsberg district (former Alsfeld district and town of Schotten)
Fulda
turnout 64.4 - CDU 46.5 (+3.0) - SPD 29.9 (-0.6) - FDP 9.4 (-1.2) - Greens 4.9 (-1.2) - Left 4.6 (-0.3)
district, remainder of Vogelsberg, four towns of Main-Kinzig district (eastern part of former Schlüchtern district)
Hochtaunus
turnout 68.0 - CDU 43.5 (+6.1) - SPD 29.4 (-0.2) - FDP 12.1 (-3.5) - Greens 7.2 (-2.6) - Left 4.1 (-0.5)
district except three southern towns of Steinbach, Kronberg and Königstein, Weilburg constituency
Wetterau
turnout 64.6 - CDU 39.7 (+5.0) - SPD 34.6 (-0.1) - FDP 9.4 (-2.9) - Greens 6.2 (-3.0) - Left 4.4 (-0.6)
district, three western towns of former Schlüchtern district
Rheingau-Taunus / Limburg
turnout 66.0 - CDU 42.1 (+2.3) - SPD 33.0 (+1.1) - FDP 10.4 (-2.1) - Greens 6.7 (-2.1) - Left 3.8 (-0.3)
Rheingau-Taunus district, Limburg constituency
Wiesbaden
turnout 60.8 - CDU 36.1 (+4.0) - SPD 35.2 (+2.6) - FDP 10.7 (-2.6) - Greens 9.3 (-4.0) - Left 5.1 (0)
city
Hanau
turnout 63.5 - CDU 39.7 (+4.6) - SPD 34.7 (+0.3) - FDP 9.0 (-2.7) - Greens 6.5 (-2.6) - Left 5.2 (-0.3)
Main-Kinzig district except former Schlüchtern district
Main-Taunus
turnout 71.6 - CDU 43.6 (+3.5) - SPD 26.6 (-0.7) - FDP 13.8 (-2.6) - Greens 8.7 (-1.3) - Left 3.5 (-0.1)
district, three Hochtaunus towns
Frankfurt am Main I
turnout 60.6 - CDU 34.3 (+4.8) - SPD 33.9 (+2.8) - FDP 10.5 (-2.4) - Greens 9.9 (-5.7) - Left 7.1 (+0.1)
constituencies I, II and III
Frankfurt am Main II
turnout 64.4 - SPD 33.1 (+3.2) - CDU 32.3 (+3.1) - Greens 12.8 (-4.7) - FDP 11.0 (-2.8) - Left 7.0 (+0.5)
constituencies IV, V and VI
Groß-Gerau
turnout 65.0 - SPD 39.4 (+0.2) - CDU 33.1 (+2.9) - Greens 9.2 (-1.5) - FDP 7.5 (-3.2) - Left 5.0 (-0.1)
district
Offenbach
turnout 62.6 - CDU 39.4 (+3.4) - SPD 32.7 (+0.7) - FDP 9.6 (-3.0) - Greens 8.9 (-2.0) - Left 5.0 (-0.1)
city, suburban rural I and II constituencies
Darmstadt
turnout 67.4 - SPD 39.5 (+3.0) - CDU 31.5 (+1.1) - Greens 11.0 (-3.2) - FDP 9.4 (-1.4) - Left 5.2 (-0.1)
city and former district (city I, city II, suburban constituencies), towns of Eppertshausen and Münster
Odenwald
turnout 66.1 - CDU 38.3 (+2.8) - SPD 36.5 (+1.9) - FDP 8.8 (-2.9) - Greens 6.9 (-2.6) - Left 4.7 (-0.1)
district, Dieburg constituency except Eppertshausen and Münster, Offenbach suburban III constituency
Bergstraße
turnout 60.9 - CDU 40.1 (+3.6) - SPD 35.9 (+0.5) - FDP 8.6 (-2.5) - Greens 6.1 (-2.4) - Left 3.9 (-0.5)
district

Some very interesting patterns there.

[minionofmidas]

I would like to point out two factoids about turnout in Hesse:

In 13 states - all but NRW and Brandenburg - turnout dropped by more than 0.3 points at the last Landtag election.

In 13 states - all but Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg - turnout was less than 64.3 percent at the last Landtag election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Hamburg poll (Infratest dimap, 02/01)

CDU 41%
SPD 33%
Greens 10%
The Left 7%
FDP 5%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens.

[minionofmidas]

Not sure I'm putting much stock in this poll, but...

Forsa 02.02.2008 (change on one week previously, ie on before the Hesse election and its fallout)
CDU/CSU              35 % (-4)
SPD              25 % (-2)
FDP              11 % (+2)
Die Linke.              14 % (+2)
GRÜNE              10 % (+2)
Sonstige              5 % (0)

[Hash]

14% for Die Linke in a West-state? Isn't that, uhm, a bit too high to be true?

[Middle-aged Europe]

14% for Die Linke in a West-state? Isn't that, uhm, a bit too high to be true?

It's a national poll, I think.