2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[minionofmidas]

I'm an idiot. Those Stadtteil results are on the city site anyways. And I miscalculated by calculating party#s percentage of the total rather than the valid vote, so it's really SPD 34.0, CDU 26.0, Greens 14.9, FDP 11.3, Left 10.0

[minionofmidas]

With just 69 precincts missing - including my own - CDU lead across the city is down to 0.3.

[minionofmidas]

ARD now too saying the Left is in.
WHich is a good thing since CDU/FDP seems to be pulling ever so slightly ahead of Red/Green.

173 of 426 municipalities in.

Ooh... and our first constituency, Waldeck(-Frankenberg 1):

SPD 37.7 (+6.5), CDU 37.5 (-13.1), FDP 10.7 (+1.6), Greens 5.6 (-0.5), Left 4.6
Minister of Environment Wilhelm Dietzel (CDU) retains direct seat, however, 40.6 to 37.5.

[Tender Branson]

First Wahlkreis is in:

05 Waldeck-Frankenberg I

SPD beats CDU 37,7 (+6,5) to 37,5 (-13,1) in the statewide vote.

Elected: Wilhelm Dietzel (CDU) by 40,6 to 37,5 (54,0 to 33,4).

[minionofmidas]

Looks like the Greens didn't win a single precinct in Frankfurt. There's still a few precincts out that might be straws to cling on to, such as 222-02, but I'd expect those to go like all the similar precincts, ie heavily SPD. If they'd retained this low a share of their voters elsewhere in the state, they'd be looking at the 5-% threshold from below now.

[Tender Branson]

Are returns in Hesse always so slow ?

Polls closed 2 hours ago and only half of all towns have reported.

In the 2006 Austrian elections, polls closed at 5 pm and slightly more than 1 hour later I posted this:

2138 out of 2380 cities counted

[minionofmidas]

Two votes, remember?

[minionofmidas]

Just 25 precincts in Frankfurt missing... but they include three of the six I've ever lived in.

EDIT: four, actually.

[minionofmidas]

We have our second constituency, Schwalm-Eder I (one of the SPD's holds from 2003.)
SPD 48.0 (+5.3)
CDU 27.2 (-10.7)
FDP 9.1 (+0.1)
Greens 5.6 (-1.5)
Left 5.5

And just as in Waldeck, the SPD's share of the direct vote is actually less than in the list vote.

[Hash]

Lower Saxony: 4 seats CDU, 2 with majority of votes

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt 1 by Stadtteile... (order is turnout - CDU - SPD - Greens - FDP - Left)

total 54.6 - 40.2 - 34.0 - 6.5 - 7.7 - 6.3
Griesheim 48.5 - 36.9 - 36.0 - 5.9 - 7.7 - 7.1
Höchst 52.3 - 30.4 - 39.8 - 10.2 - 6.9 - 8.4
Nied 57.6 - 39.4 - 34.1 - 6.3 - 8.0 - 6.4
Sindlingen 55.2 - 42.3 - 34.5 - 5.5 - 5.8 - 5.8
Sossenheim 54.4 - 43.7 - 31.9 - 5.6 - 8.0 - 6.5
Unterliederbach 58.7 - 41.5 - 32.3 - 8.0 - 8.8 - 4.8
Zeilsheim 56.9 - 46.2 - 30.6 - 4.4 - 7.3 - 5.2

2003:
total 55.4 - 49.9 - 27.4 - 9.9 - 7.1
Griesheim 52.7 - 46.8 - 29.8 - 10.4 - 7.1
Höchst 51.9 - 40.5 - 28.7 - 16.8 - 7.7
Nied 57.7 - 47.7 - 29.7 - 10.2 - 6.9
Sindlingen 57.3 - 51.0 - 29.9 - 6.8 - 6.3
Sossenheim 52.3 - 55.5 - 23.4 - 8.8 - 7.2
Unterliederbach 58.0 - 50.9 - 24.2 - 10.4 - 8.8
Zeilsheim 58.3 - 55.7 - 26.6 - 7.2 - 5.4

[minionofmidas]

My precinct's in... finally... SPD 40.4, CDU 25.5, Greens 12.1, Left 9.7, FDP 7.6

SPD wins... Höchst, Bockenheim, Rödelheim, Hausen, Praunheim, Heddernheim, Ginnheim, Gallus, Gutleut/Bahnhof, Innenstadt, possibly Niederrad (43 votes ahead, but with the sole precinct still out CDU territory), probably Sachsenhausen North (22 votes down, but no way the one precinct still out doesn't cover that distance, not the way Greens have been flocking to the SPD), Northend East and West, Bornheim, Ostend, Riederwald, Fechenheim, Preungesheim, Eckenheim, Bonames/Frankfurter Berg,

[minionofmidas]

SPD takes lead in Frankfurt.

[minionofmidas]

Limburg-Weilburg 2 (Weilburg):
turnout 62.3 (-1.1)
CDU 42.5 (-11.5)
SPD 35.5 (+6.0)
FDP 8.5 (+1.0)
Greens 4.9 (-1.2)
Left 4.2
Direct seat safe for Minister of Finance Karlheinz Weimar.

Marburg-Biedenkopf 1 (Marburg rural, Biedenkopf)
turnout 63.0 (+0.9)
SPD 44.4 (+9.7)
CDU 34.3 (-14.3)
FDP 7.6 (+1.3)
Left 5.2
Greens 4.8 (-1.8)
First SPD gain of the night. :)

Odenwald
turnout 64.2 (-1.9)
SPD 40.3 (+5.0)
CDU 35.7 (-12.0)
FDP 7.3 (+1.8)
Greens 5.8 (-1.7)
Left 5.7
Another SPD gain, this one a little closer.

Waldeck-Frankenberg 2 (Frankenberg)
turnout 60.7 (+0.6)
SPD 39.5 (+9.1)
CDU 36.1 (-14.8)
FDP 9.3 (+0.8)
Greens 6.0 (-0.8)
Left 5.4
For once, the SPD direct vote outperforms the list vote as it should, so easy pickup.

[minionofmidas]

Further results...

SPD hold: Kassel rural II
SPD gains: city of Kassel I and II, Eschwege-Witzenhausen, Marburg-Biedenkopf II, Wiesbaden I, Groß-Gerau I, Darmstadt-Dieburg I
CDU holds: Lahn-Dill I, Fulda II, Bergstraße II, Rheingau-Taunus I and II, Wiesbaden II, City of Offenbach (SPD ahead in list vote)

[minionofmidas]

And whoever was updating the Frankfurt results seems to have gone out for a drink or something.

[minionofmidas]

Further results:
SPD gain Kassel rural 1, Schwalm-Eder 2, Lahn-Dill 2, Vogelsberg*, Wetterau 2, Groß-Gerau 2, City of Darmstadt 1 and 2 (which of course isn't entirely in the city), Darmstadt-Dieburg 2 (that was a bit of a surprise given how similar seats have been going, but whatever. Very tight o/c)
CDU hold Gießen 2 with SPD ahead in list vote (And I would have so liked to see Volker Bouffier lose here. )
CDU hold Limburg-Weilburg 1, Fulda 1, Main-Kinzig 3, Wetterau 3, Main-Taunus 1 (Koch himself) and 2, Offenbach rural 3, Bergstraße 1

*see page 5 of this thread:

Vogelsberg *safe* CDU?

[minionofmidas]

Of course with most of the seats still out now I can tell you who won:
SPD Rotenburg, Hersfeld, Gießen 1, Frankfurt 2, 5
CDU Hochtaunus 1, 2, Wetterau 1, Frankfurt 1, 3, 4, Offenbach rural 1, 2
but I want the results for Frankfurt 6, Main-Kinzig 1 and 2 NOW.

Eh... Main-Kinzig 2 nowhere as close as I thought it would be. Less than average swing in Hanau. .CDU hold. Both Main-Kinzig seats actually.

SPD gains of Hersfeld and Gießen 1 confirmed, CDU hold in Offenbach rural 2 confirmed. I don't get what happened in Frankfurt, though. You'd think 30-odd precincts in the direct vote and 9 in the city vote in the past two hours shouldn't be too difficult.
On a more upbeat note, I'm feeling fabulous about the Left after having looked at all those results. Should come to about 5.2 by my guesstimate.

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt's in. So it was my original guess after all - stopped updating until they're all in.
SPD 33.5, CDU 33.2, Greens 11.5, FDP 10.9, Left 7.1. Turnout 62.6
2003: CDU 42.4, SPD 26.5, Greens 17.2, FDP 8.9. Turnout 61.1
Oh, and 1999: CDU 41.7, SPD 33.4, Greens 14.2, FDP 8.8. Turnout 63.8

[minionofmidas]

Official final result any second now.

[minionofmidas]

WTF? Why aren`t they adding that? It's available on the Frankfurt website anyways!?!

Anyways, my calculations... bit of a surprise...

Turnout 64.3
CDU 36.8
SPD 36.7
FDP 9.4
Greens 7.2
Left 5.2

Using election.de that#s 43 CDU, 42 SPD, 11 FDP, 8 Greens, 6 Left. 56-54 is not going to be enough to see red-green-red on its way... if this result stands up, it's either a grand coalition without Koch (yeah I know. He claims he's not going anywhere) or a traffic light.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, if that stays as it is, Koch's out?

[minionofmidas]

Well, I was predicting... but it's extremely hard to imagine.

Lower Saxony
Final Results

Turnout 57.0 (-10.0)
CDU 42.5 (-5.     68
SPD 30.3 (-3.1)     48
FDP 8.2 (+0.1)      13
Greens 8.0 (+0.4) 12
Left 7.1 (+6.6)      11

152 in total as the CDU won one direct seat more than their share of the vote entitled them to.

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt is up... like about an hour late, and with no change to the vote totals I had an hour ago.

Maybe someone found Ypsilanti's win suspicious (it does look odd... she got a pretty giant personal vote) and doublechecked a couple of precincts?

Re: Does look odd...

List vote in that constituency
CDU 36.4
SPD 33.0
Greens 9.8
FDP 9.8
Left 6.4

Direct vote
SPD 41.0
CDU 37.4
FDP 7.3
Greens 5.6
Left 4.3

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, I was predicting... but it's extremely hard to imagine.

Good news then