2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[Tender Branson]

Sidenote: As a consequence of the more and more scandal-ridden Grand Coalition in Austria (Bank scandal, Eurofighter-contract scandal, Chad-mission, Abduction scandal, Party spying scandal) between the Conservative People's Party (ÖVP) and the Social Democrats (SPÖ), the Far-Right and Greens are approaching new levels of support. Snap elections seem to be very likely, but no party wants to call them, because normally the party that calls snap elections gets badly punished at the polls. A new poll by Gallup underscores the difficulty of the Austrian Grand Coalition: 73% of all polled are for early elections. If early elections were held today, the ÖVP would receive 33% (-1 since the last elections in Oct. 2006), the Social Democrats 32% (-3). The Greens would get 15% (+4), the FPÖ 14% (+3) and the BZÖ 5% (+1). Others (Communists) are at 1%. If this poll is accurate, the only possible coalition after the snap elections would still be a Grand coalition (ROFL), because neither ÖVP-Green, nor SPÖ-Green or ÖVP-FPÖ would be possible. Greens won´t enter a coalition with either FPÖ and BZÖ and FPÖ and BZÖ won´t work together with the ÖVP ...

[Hash]

Don't you wish the FPO could collapse like the FN did in France?

[Tender Branson]

Don't you wish the FPO could collapse like the FN did in France?

Of course I would like to see that happening, but currently it´s very unlikely.

Rumors are that snap elections will now take place in the fall, after the EURO 2008. Both parties will likely run with new front-runners, because the current leaders have 20% approval ratings.

The ÖVP will likely choose Josef Pröll, currently Minister of Agriculture and nephew of popular Lower Austria governor Erwin Pröll as front-runner.

The Social Democrats are likely to ask the governor of Salzburg (where I live) - Gabriele Burgstaller - to run. I don´t know how likely this is, because she has said that she´ll stay in Salzburg for the 2009 state elections. But if she decides to enter federal politics, she would be a strong candidate.

I could see the following results if the parties are led by these 2 candidates:

SPÖ - 32%, ÖVP - 30%, Greens - 16%, FPÖ - 16%, BZÖ - 5%, KPÖ - 1%

[Tender Branson]

Today: Hamburg State Elections

[BenNebbich]

Hessen- part two.

[minionofmidas]

Today: Hamburg State Elections

Oh. Right. I'd almost forgotten. The Atlasian elections are more important.

[Tender Branson]

The so called "Wahl-Kabine" (Polling Booth) for Lower Austria is now online, created by the political science wing of the Danube-University in Krems and the Ministry of Education and Culture.

You can choose between "Agree", "Disagree" and "Don´t know/Neutral" and you can also weight your answers from "Important to me", "Not important to me" or "Don´t Know/Neutral"

The 25 questions are:

Children, Youth and Education

1 - Do you support creating a seperate subject "Political Education" in Lower Austrian schools (instead of being a part of History classes) ?

2 - Do you support the introduction of a comprehensive school system in Lower Austria (instead of various types of schools, where parents/children decide to go) ?

3 - Do you support that the state government pays for tuition fees to increase the share of students ?

4 - Do you support the promotion of child day care centers to support single parents and working parents ?

5 - Do you support tougher penalties for criminal juveniles ?

Welfare and Community

6 - Do you support expanding the construction/benefits of apartments for people who cannot afford it ?

7- Do you support a statewide basic income ?

State Security, Integration and Migration

8 - Do you think the state should demand more police officers and personell from the federal Ministry of Interior to tackle local crime ?

9 - Do you think that asylum seekers should receive a labor permit immediately ?

10 - Do you think the state should allow illegal foreigners who already lived here for quite some time and who are fully integrated in society to stay for humanitarian reasons ?

11 - Do you support releasing criminal records of asylum seekers to the public ?

Economy

12 - Do you think the state should support indebted companies with taxpayers' money ?

13 - Do you think the state energy company (EVN) should be fully privatized (the state should sell its current shares in the company) ?

14 - Do you think the penalties for clandestine employment should be raised ?

Democracy and State Constitution

15 - Do you think the current proportional election system should be replaced with a majority voting system ?

16 - Do you think that foreigners without citizenship should get active and passive statewide voting rights after a period of time ?

17 - Do you think that accepted religious communities should get the same financial benefits as the Christian community ?

Environment, Mobility and Infrastructure

18 - Do you think that biological agriculture subsidies should be increased by the state ?

19 - Do you think that alternative energy benefits should be increased by the state ?

20 - Do you think that on days with high particulate matter emmissions, speed limits should be implemented ?

21 - Do you think prices for public transport systems should be based on the income of passengers ?

Society, Culture and Media

22 - Do you think homosexual couples should be allowed to become foster parents ?

23 - Do you think abortion costs should be covered by universal health care ?

24 - Do you support that more qualified women than men should be accepted into the state civil servants sector to achieve a higher share of women in that sector (affirmative action) ?

25 - Do you think alternative arts should be funded by state government ?

http://www.politikkabine.at/noe/questionnaire.php

For me the results are:

Greens: 85.1% analogy
SPÖ: 79.1%
KPÖ: 74.6%
ÖVP: 61.5%
FPÖ: 53.6%
BZÖ: 52.5%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg polls close in six minutes...

[Tender Branson]

Hamburg polls close in six minutes...

Live stream of N-TV exit polls here:

http://www.n-tv.de/61215.html

[Tender Branson]

I expect:

CDU: 40%
SPD: 34%
Greens: 10%
Left: 9%
FDP: 5%
Others: 2%

[Tender Branson]

ARD Exit Poll (18:00)

CDU: 42.5%
SPD: 34.0%
Greens: 9.5%
Left: 6.5%
FDP: 5.0%
Others: 2.5%

ZDF Exit Poll (18:00)

CDU: 43.0%
SPD: 34.0%
Greens: 9.5%
Left: 6.5%
FDP: 5.0%
Others: 2.0%

[BenNebbich]

@ tender

fdp in or out?

[Tender Branson]

@ tender

fdp in or out?

The FDP is at 5% right now, so it will be close. Let´s wait until the votes are counted.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Projected seat distribution (provided the FDP is in), both ARD & ZDF:

CDU 53
SPD 42
Greens 12
The Left 8
FDP 6

CDU/FDP two seats short of a majority, SPD/Greens seven seats short of a majority.

Hypothetical majorities for CDU/SPD, CDU/Greens, and SPD/Greens/The Left.

[BenNebbich]

I'd prefer cdu/green.

could work in hamburg.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU will now hold coalition talks with the SPD and the Greens.

My prediction: Hamburg will have a new government sooner than Hesse.

[Tender Branson]

FDP currently @ 4.9% and out ...

New percentages and seat distribution:

CDU: 42.8% - 56 seats
SPD: 33.9% - 44 seats
Greens: 9.3% - 12 seats
Left: 6.5% - 9 seats

FDP: 4.9%
Others: 2.6%

Turnout: 63%

[minionofmidas]

On these results it's actually preferable that the FDP get in, weird as it sounds. (The prevention of as many black-green coalitions as possible, except as a last resort, must have a high priority for anyone interested in the Green Party's long term survival. That much should be clear to anyone who's analysed the Hesse results. Which means that the narrower the theoretical majority for black-green, the better.)

There doesn't seem to be any good election coverage on the web, at least not from official sources.

[minionofmidas]

Ahh, good coverage at the Spiegel website.

[minionofmidas]

The so called "Wahl-Kabine" (Polling Booth) for Lower Austria is now online, created by the political science wing of the Danube-University in Krems and the Ministry of Education and Culture.

KPÖ 88.4
Greens 82.1
SPÖ 65.2
BZÖ 38.7
ÖVP 33.8
FPÖ 31.9

[Tender Branson]

The so called "Wahl-Kabine" (Polling Booth) for Lower Austria is now online, created by the political science wing of the Danube-University in Krems and the Ministry of Education and Culture.

KPÖ 88.4
Greens 82.1
SPÖ 65.2
BZÖ 38.7
ÖVP 33.8
FPÖ 31.9

I´m interested in how some of the US guys on here would vote in Austria. I spent half an hour translating the questions and (nearly) nobody bothers to take the test ...

[minionofmidas]

There#s also one for Hamburg (there wasn't one for Hesse. )

My result

[Tender Branson]

There#s also one for Hamburg (there wasn't one for Hesse. )

My result

And mine

[minionofmidas]

Green collapse in traditional strongholds, as evidenced by Frankfurt and Wiesbaden results, continues in Hamburg. The Spiegel website doesn't report turnout by neighborhoods, just vote shares (frigging journalists), so I don't know if the highly peculiar "collapse of a party's vote share in its strongholds, coupled with unusually strong turnout in its strongholds" (something I basically do not recall seeing ever before, anywhere in the world) picture from Frankfurt holds.

This is the continuous belt of Green >20 neighborhoods in Hamburg in 2004, presented west to east. First result is 2004 (CDU-SPD-Greens), second is 2008 (same plus Left):

Ottensen            25.3 - 32.3 - 32.6  22.2 - 40.4 - 21.6 - 10.6
Altona North       22.8 - 35.3 - 31.1  17.8 - 43.0 - 20.7 - 13.4
Altona Old Town 27.0 - 34.7 - 25.6  21.4 - 41.1 - 17.5 - 13.7
Eimsbüttel          28.9 - 33.3 - 28.3  26.5 - 39.6 - 19.5 - 8.7
Hoheluft West    34.8 - 33.3 - 24.1  30.6 - 38.6 - 17.2 - 6.9
Hoheluft East     37.1 - 33.8 - 21.7  38.4 - 33.8 - 16.4 - 5.0
Sternschanze     16.1 - 29.5 - 40.5  13.3 - 40.7 - 24.9 - 16.2
St Pauli               19.8 - 28.2 - 38.6  15.3 - 41.2 - 21.0 - 15.0
New Town          32.6 - 34.6 - 22.9  29.7 - 38.6 - 15.3 - 8.9
Rotherbaum       41.5 - 28.9 - 22.1  39.7 - 32.4 - 14.4 - 5.5
St Georg             31.3 - 29.0 - 28.9  29.8 - 35.7 - 17.9 - 10.2
Hammerbrook     26.9 - 25.5 - 35.1  20.9 - 36.3 - 21.1 - 10.6

[minionofmidas]

Final results:
turnout 63.4

CDU 42.6
SPD 34.1
Greens 9.6
Left 6.4
FDP 4.8
all others under 1