2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[Hash]

14% for Die Linke in a West-state? Isn't that, uhm, a bit too high to be true?

It's a national poll, I think.

Oh yes it is, sorry.

14% is still a bit high.

[Tender Branson]

New Lower Austria poll by Gallup:

ÖVP: 53%
SPÖ: 29%
FPÖ: 8%
Greens: 8%
Others (BZÖ, KPÖ): 2%

BZÖ and KPÖ have 1 week left to collect the signatures to be on the ballot statewide.

This poll is bad news for the Social Democrats, not only because of their bad showing in the Graz elections 2 weeks ago, but also because Lower Austria is the home of Austrian SPÖ Chancellor Gusenbauer, which last time I checked, had a 24% approval rating. ÖVP-Governor Pröll would defeat SPÖ candidate Onodi 65-10 ...

[The Mikado]

Not sure I'm putting much stock in this poll, but...

Forsa 02.02.2008 (change on one week previously, ie on before the Hesse election and its fallout)
CDU/CSU              35 % (-4)
SPD              25 % (-2)
FDP              11 % (+2)
Die Linke.              14 % (+2)
GRÜNE              10 % (+2)
Sonstige              5 % (0)

That's a recipe for more Grand Coalition (with CDU even more firmly in the driver's seat).

[Verily]

Not sure I'm putting much stock in this poll, but...

Forsa 02.02.2008 (change on one week previously, ie on before the Hesse election and its fallout)
CDU/CSU              35 % (-4)
SPD              25 % (-2)
FDP              11 % (+2)
Die Linke.              14 % (+2)
GRÜNE              10 % (+2)
Sonstige              5 % (0)

That's a recipe for more Grand Coalition (with CDU even more firmly in the driver's seat).

Which is really just good news for the small parties, which will continue to gain as long as the Grand Coalition survives.

[minionofmidas]

Not sure I'm putting much stock in this poll, but...

Forsa 02.02.2008 (change on one week previously, ie on before the Hesse election and its fallout)
CDU/CSU              35 % (-4)
SPD              25 % (-2)
FDP              11 % (+2)
Die Linke.              14 % (+2)
GRÜNE              10 % (+2)
Sonstige              5 % (0)

That's a recipe for more Grand Coalition (with CDU even more firmly in the driver's seat).

Which is really just good news for the small parties, which will continue to gain as long as the Grand Coalition survives.

Not necessarily. Most of the time when there've been Grand Coalitions in Germany, the larger partner has benefitted and third parties have lost. A lot depends on how content people are with the Grand Coalition in question... which depends a lot on how it deports itself.

[minionofmidas]

Seat distribution in Hesse without threshold:
CDU 41
SPD 40
FDP 11
Greens 8
Left 6
REP 1
FW 1
NPD 1
Animal Rights 1

...and suddenly a grand coalition becomes almost a certainty...

[Tender Branson]

New Lower Austria poll by Gallup:

ÖVP: 53%
SPÖ: 29%
FPÖ: 8%
Greens: 8%
Others (BZÖ, KPÖ): 2%

BZÖ and KPÖ have 1 week left to collect the signatures to be on the ballot statewide.

This poll is bad news for the Social Democrats, not only because of their bad showing in the Graz elections 2 weeks ago, but also because Lower Austria is the home of Austrian SPÖ Chancellor Gusenbauer, which last time I checked, had a 24% approval rating. ÖVP-Governor Pröll would defeat SPÖ candidate Onodi 65-10 ...

9 parties will be on the March 9 ballot:

ÖVP (statewide)
SPÖ (statewide)
FPÖ (statewide)
Greens (statewide)
KPÖ (statewide)

DCP (in 20 of 21 electoral districts)
BZÖ (in 17 of 21 electoral districts)
LNÖ (in 6 of 21 electoral districts)
Animal Rights Party (in 1 of 21 electoral districts)

Every citizen aged 16+ will be eligible to vote, that means 1.397.647 people, 724.542 women and 673.105 men.

[minionofmidas]

Nothing's going to happen here in Hesse until after the Hamburg elections - everyone's just too scared of voter reactions. After that, probably the FDP will quickly move into a traffic light direction. If not, we'll get Red-Green-Red.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg poll (Infratest-dimap, 02/14)

CDU 39%
SPD 35%
Greens 10%
The Left 8%
FDP 5%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg (FGW, 02/15)

CDU 41%
SPD 34%
Greens 10%
The Left 7%
FDP 5%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens.

[minionofmidas]

CDU seems to have really rebounded after the noise from Hesse stopped and von Beust signed that antikoch letter.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg (Emnid, 02/16)

CDU 42%
SPD 32%
Greens 11%
The Left 7%
FDP 5%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens.

[Tender Branson]

New poll for Lower Austria by Gallup:

ÖVP: 53%
SPÖ: 28%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 7%
BZÖ: 2%
KPÖ: 1%

BTW: There´s a big Interior Ministry (ÖVP-led) scandal right now in Austria involving the BKA (the Austrian version of the FBI). But 78% of Lower Austrians polled said their decision won´t be influenced by the scandal. Governor Pröll would win a direct vote against his Social Demratic challenger 62-10. Even among SPÖ voters, Pröll leads 45-36 ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg (Infratest-dimap, 02/17)

CDU 39%
SPD 35%
Greens 9%
The Left 9%
FDP 5%

Strange, Infratest had already released a poll this Thursday. Well, the results are almost the same anyway (Greens -1, The Left +1).

[Hash]

Found this Bundestag election prognosis on election.de

.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't treat that even slightly seriously. Someone should dig up the ones they did prior to the last election. Worth a chuckle, even now.

[minionofmidas]

Don't treat that even slightly seriously. Someone should dig up the ones they did prior to the last election. Worth a chuckle, even now.

Yeah, "certain" is basically "certain if the election turns out like the polls do".

[Hash]

Don't treat that even slightly seriously. Someone should dig up the ones they did prior to the last election. Worth a chuckle, even now.

Ah, you seem correct looking a  this page. Lolz.

[minionofmidas]

Don't treat that even slightly seriously. Someone should dig up the ones they did prior to the last election. Worth a chuckle, even now.

Ah, you seem correct looking a  this page. Lolz.

And that's just based on a slightly too CDU friendly exit poll, not on pre-election polling.
I don't think they're still flounting their maps based on those...

[Hash]

Don't treat that even slightly seriously. Someone should dig up the ones they did prior to the last election. Worth a chuckle, even now.

Ah, you seem correct looking a  this page. Lolz.

And that's just based on a slightly too CDU friendly exit poll, not on pre-election polling.
I don't think they're still flounting their maps based on those...

How'd they do in predicting the Hessian and Lower Saxony elections recently?

[minionofmidas]

Don't treat that even slightly seriously. Someone should dig up the ones they did prior to the last election. Worth a chuckle, even now.

Ah, you seem correct looking a  this page. Lolz.

And that's just based on a slightly too CDU friendly exit poll, not on pre-election polling.
I don't think they're still flounting their maps based on those...

How'd they do in predicting the Hessian and Lower Saxony elections recently?

final prediction:

Wrong on six constituencies (Wetzlar, Vogelsberg, eastern Wetterau, western Wiesbaden, northeastern Frankfurt, Dieburg)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg (Psephos, 02/18)

CDU 42%
SPD 34%
Greens 9%
The Left 7%
FDP 5%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens.

[Tender Branson]

New poll for Tyrol by SORA (600 interviewed, MoE=4%):

Independent list "For Tyrol" included:

ÖVP: 37%
For Tyrol: 23%
SPÖ: 19%
Greens: 14%
FPÖ: 6%
Others (KPÖ+BZÖ): 1%

Without "For Tyrol":

ÖVP: 44%
SPÖ: 24%
Greens: 20%
FPÖ: 9%
Others (KPÖ+BZÖ): 3%

Update: I just read that "For Tyrol" will definitely participate in the elections.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg (election.de, 02/20)

CDU 41%
SPD 35%
Greens 10%
The Left 6%
FDP 4%

No majority for CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg (GMS, 02/21)

CDU 40%
SPD 35%
Greens 9%
The Left 8%
FDP 4%

No majority for CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens.