2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hesse (Infratest dimap, 01/17)

CDU 38%
SPD 37%
FDP 8%
Greens 7%
The Left 6%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens.



Lower Saxony (Infratest dimap, 01/17)

CDU 44%
SPD 34%
FDP 7%
Greens 7%
The Left 5%

Majority for CDU/FDP.



Apparently, Koch's "criminal immigrants" strategy has massively backfired in Hesse. Almost half of the voters (48%) say that they would prefer Andrea Ypsilanti (SPD) as minister-president, while only 38% would vote for Roland Koch now. Also, 51% say that the SPD "should lead the next government" (CDU: 38%).

[Tender Branson]

Hesse - (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF):

CDU 38%
SPD 37%
FDP 8%
Greens 8%
The Left 5%

Lower Saxony - (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF):

CDU 46%
SPD 33%
FDP 7%
Greens 7%
The Left 5%

[minionofmidas]

Man, it's like jacking off to political pornography. Have there ever been polls that made me as happy as those two?


You know what I'm beginning to seriously worry about though? The Greens and the 5% threshold. Absurd as it sounds when you think of the Hessian Greens' history, but with people talking about voting SPD to get rid off Koch (a four-letter word in some sections of society. I've actually seen posters for the CDU direct candidate in Frankfurt 5, who is an elderly city councillor and a nice enough man, defaced with just this word.) and with other people like my mate Marius, who feels like a natural Green supporter to me, telling me that he considers the Greens "obviously" to the SPD's right by now, and is only contemplating the options of SPD, Left, and staying home (which in fact he says he usually does, but probably won't this time) ... yeah well, I worry. Koch getting back in because the Greens dropped below 5% would be... awesome, in a way, but also completely disgusting.
The upshot is... I may be voting Green with the List Vote on Jan 27th after all. I'll probably be waiting till polling day to decide for good.

[minionofmidas]

Current election.de prognosis. Their unwillingness to call any SPD pickups certain is starting to look ridiculous. Then again, the new reduced safe CDU list is very conservative as well. I think it's just one or two seats off the list of where the CDU was ahead even in the 98 federals (when it trailed by 7 points statewide, not something anyone is expecting next week.)

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Politician Calls Prophet Muhammad a 'Child Molester'

LOL, the FPÖ just came in 5th today. Nonetheless, a victory for the center-right parties (ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ).

Results:

ÖVP: 38,6 (+2,5)
SPÖ: 20,4 (-5,5)
Greens: 14,8 (+6,5)
Communists: 11,7 (-9,1)
FPÖ: 11,4 (+3,4)
BZÖ: 4,6 (+4,6)
Others: 1,0 (+1,0)

[minionofmidas]

Perhaps the last poll we'll be seeing out of Hesse...
SPD 38
CDU 38
FDP 9
Greens 7
Left 5

EDIT: And it's by Forsa, too!

[Jens]

Austrian Politician Calls Prophet Muhammad a 'Child Molester'

LOL, the FPÖ just came in 5th today. Nonetheless, a victory for the center-right parties (ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ).

Results:

ÖVP: 38,6 (+2,5)
SPÖ: 20,4 (-5,5)
Greens: 14,8 (+6,5)
Communists: 11,7 (-9,1)
FPÖ: 11,4 (+3,4)
BZÖ: 4,6 (+4,6)
Others: 1,0 (+1,0)

What happened to KPÖ?

[Bono]

Austrian Politician Calls Prophet Muhammad a 'Child Molester'

LOL, the FPÖ just came in 5th today. Nonetheless, a victory for the center-right parties (ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ).

Results:

ÖVP: 38,6 (+2,5)
SPÖ: 20,4 (-5,5)
Greens: 14,8 (+6,5)
Communists: 11,7 (-9,1)
FPÖ: 11,4 (+3,4)
BZÖ: 4,6 (+4,6)
Others: 1,0 (+1,0)

Is this a poll or an election?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Austrian Politician Calls Prophet Muhammad a 'Child Molester'

LOL, the FPÖ just came in 5th today. Nonetheless, a victory for the center-right parties (ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ).

Results:

ÖVP: 38,6 (+2,5)
SPÖ: 20,4 (-5,5)
Greens: 14,8 (+6,5)
Communists: 11,7 (-9,1)
FPÖ: 11,4 (+3,4)
BZÖ: 4,6 (+4,6)
Others: 1,0 (+1,0)

Is this a poll or an election?

Those are the results of the Graz city council elections.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Politician Calls Prophet Muhammad a 'Child Molester'

LOL, the FPÖ just came in 5th today. Nonetheless, a victory for the center-right parties (ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ).

Results:

ÖVP: 38,6 (+2,5)
SPÖ: 20,4 (-5,5)
Greens: 14,8 (+6,5)
Communists: 11,7 (-9,1)
FPÖ: 11,4 (+3,4)
BZÖ: 4,6 (+4,6)
Others: 1,0 (+1,0)

Is this a poll or an election?

Those are the results of the Graz city council elections.

Correct. And a ÖVP-Green coalition is likely to come.

What happened to KPÖ?

The 2003 result was unnaturally high for the KPÖ and was only achieved by popular local Communist frontman Ernest Kaltenegger, who now represents the Communists in the state parliament after the KPÖ crossed the 5% barrier in the Styria 2005 state elections.

[Tender Branson]

New Hamburg poll:

SPD: 38%
CDU: 37%
Greens: 13%
Left: 6%
FDP: 5%

Majority for SPD/Greens.

[minionofmidas]

New Hamburg poll:

SPD: 38%
CDU: 37%
Greens: 13%
Left: 6%
FDP: 5%

Majority for SPD/Greens.

What will von Beust do to Koch after the Hamburg election, I wonder?

[Tender Branson]

New Hamburg poll - Psephos:

CDU: 42%
SPD: 36%
Greens: 10%
Left: 5%
FDP: 4%

[Tender Branson]

Merkel faces humiliation in regional election

 By Tony Paterson in Berlin
Friday, 25 January 2008

Angela Merkel managed to avoid saying "foreign criminal" as she addressed supporters and a screaming mob of anti-conservative protesters outside Frankfurt's opera house last night – but the term has dominated this weekend's key German state election and it could decide her political future.

The German Chancellor was in the financial capital to attend a rally in support of Roland Koch, the right-wing conservative prime minister of Hesse state and her Christian Democrat (CDU) party's candidate in Sunday's regional poll.

But unusually for one of Germany's most popular leaders she faced chants of "Nazis out" from the 3,000-strong crowd and placards that described Mr Koch as a "racist who talks sh**t". At times she was barely able to make herself heard above the barracking. "I don't care how popular and nice Angela Merkel is – she's supporting an outright racist," said one protester.

The Hesse poll is Ms Merkel's first significant political test since she won office in 2005. Since then a string of foreign policy successes, rather than domestic reform, have helped her hold together an awkward grand coalition government comprising her own conservatives and their natural political enemies, the left-of-centre Social Democrats (SPD).

But in Hesse, Ms Merkel and her party have suddenly found themselves facing the sudden and wholly unexpected prospect of defeat. Opinion polls show that support for the state's ruling conservatives has slumped by more than 10 per cent, opening the way for a decisive victory by the Social Democrats.

Such a result would provoke bitter infighting within Ms Merkel's coalition, with each party trying to gain the upper hand before next year's full general election. Defeat for her party could be compounded should it lose again in Hamburg city state elections at the end of February.

The CDU's fall from grace in Hesse is almost entirely due to an abrasive anti-foreigner campaign launched by Mr Koch, who was elected in 1999 after vociferously opposing plans to give immigrants dual citizenship.

Mr Koch's attempts to repeat his victory with a similarly right-wing populist campaign appear to have backfired badly. Just before Christmas a white pensioner was severely beaten up on the Munich underground by Greek and Turkish youths after he asked them to stop smoking.

The attack was filmed on CCTV and subsequently broadcast nationwide. Almost immediately afterwards Mr Koch launched his campaign for "boot camps" declaring that Germany had "too many criminal young foreigners" and that a policy of "zero tolerance" was needed.

He threatened the 15 million immigrants with dire consequences if they failed to adapt to German ways and issued an extraordinary point by point critique of foreigners' shortcomings which included: failure to learn German, inability to sort their rubbish properly and the "strange" Muslim habit of slaughtering animals "in the kitchen".

But many of Mr Koch's supporters appear to have switched to the Social Democrats, after figures were released showing that Hesse is one of the worst states in Germany at dealing with young criminals because it has run out of places to detain them.

Mr Koch's campaign appears to have played into the hands of Andrea Yspilanti, his left-wing Social Democrat opponent, who has an immigrant background herself. "The voters in Hesse are cleverer than Koch thinks," she said.

Osmonde Brehme, a 64-year-old schoolteacher and former conservative stalwart, is one of the thousands who will be voting for the Social Democrats. "I just can't stand Koch any more, I find his campaign against foreigners disgusting," she said.

But most observers say that victory for Ms Yspilanti could be pyrrhic. It would force the CDU to abandon the hardline conservatism espoused by Mr Koch and oblige it to opt for the softer liberal approach for which Ms Merkel is already renowned.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/europe/merkel-faces--humiliation-in-regional-election-773883.html

[BenNebbich]

New Hamburg poll:

SPD: 38%
CDU: 37%
Greens: 13%
Left: 6%
FDP: 5%

Majority for SPD/Greens.

that ain't gonna happen. no way.

[minionofmidas]

New Hamburg poll:

SPD: 38%
CDU: 37%
Greens: 13%
Left: 6%
FDP: 5%

Majority for SPD/Greens.

that ain't gonna happen. no way.

A majority for SPD/Greens in Hamburg is very much the most likely result at this point, especially if the FDP doesn't get in (and I don't expect it too). That Koch's campaign was gonna hurt von Beust in Hamburg is something I felt sure of even before it became apparent that it was hurting him here as well.
But the SPD ahead of the CDU... yeah, I'm a bit incredulous as well, actually.

[Tender Branson]

Latest 2 Hesse polls:

Forsa:

CDU: 38-39%
SPD: 37-38%
FDP: 9-10%
Greens: 6-7%
Left: 4-5%

Advanced Market Research:

SPD: 38%
CDU: 37%
FDP: 10%
Greens: 7%
Left: 5%

[minionofmidas]

Turnout slightly up in Frankfurt. 20.1% turnout til noon, up from 18.6% five years ago.

EDIT: Same amount of increase by 2pm.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What sort of time do the results start to come through?

[Hash]

Any results site that would be good? In English preferably, although I remember some German from Munich.

[minionofmidas]

What sort of time do the results start to come through?

Polls close 6pm (5 to you). Exit poll right after that.
Most polling stations will be reporting between 7 and half past 8, I'd guess, with some stragglers well into the night. Final results could be in around 11 or so.

[minionofmidas]

Any results site that would be good? In English preferably, although I remember some German from Munich.

I've frankly no idea what site will be any good... the official results will probably be coming up here.

Major daily (Social Democrat)
Major daily (Conservative)
Regional tv channel
Frankfurt precinct results will be coming up =3677127]here.

[Tender Branson]

1st Exit Poll (ARD) - Hesse:

SPD: 37,5
CDU: 35,5
FDP: 9,5
Greens: 8,0
Left: 4,9

[minionofmidas]

ZDF Exit Poll, Lower Saxony:
CDU 42, SPD 31, Greens 8, FDP 8, Left 7, other 4
ZDF Exit Poll, Hesse:
SPD 37, CDU 36.5, FDP 9, Greens 8, Left 4.8, other 4.7.
They usually only do half-point steps  in those.

[minionofmidas]

YAY ! If the Left doesn´t cross 5%, it´s SPD-Green and a big defeat for Koch's CDU.

No. If the Left crosses 5%, Koch's political career is over. If it doesn't, Koch can pretend to have been only narrowly beaten, or worse will actually hang on.

Double cliffhanger... the suspense is ing killing me. Good thing I did vote Left in the end - and convinced Marius to do so - , so I won't feel personally responsible if they're out.

EDIT: ARD Lower Saxony:
CDU 44, SPD 29.5, Greens 8, FDP 8, Left 6.5
ARD also has turnout estimates, Hesse 64.5 (that'd be -0.1), Lower Saxony 57.0 (that'd be about -10.0)

EDIT 2: Oh and what's hilarious... thanks to Hesse's parliament having an even no. of seats, on the ZDF's figures we're seeing a 55-55 tie. SPD-FDP would have a one-seat majority though.