Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Military Times poll of Trump’s favorable rating amongst service members-

Favorable: 42% (-2)
Unfavorable: 50% (+7)

Surprisingly matches what his national approval rating is now.

The change is from October 2018.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/12/17/half-of-active-duty-service-members-are-unhappy-with-trump-new-military-times-poll-shows/

[Matty]

How will trump being officially impeached affect his approval ratings?

No change?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How will trump being officially impeached affect his approval ratings?

Impeachment will destroy his ratings.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How will trump being officially impeached affect his approval ratings?

No change?

I expect a minimal effect either way.  People's minds are already made up on Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

"Me too preoccupied with Christmas shopping to pay attention to news or care about historic occurrence in country's history. Me might have to take out second mortgage on farm to pay for Christmas gifts due to Trump trade war, but me still support him and think Democrats bad! Me not read transcript, but me believe Trump anyway."

This country needs to put out of its misery.

If you thought my straw-man above was unfair though, I have some piss and vinegar for Democrats as well, if they are indeed becoming more skittish about impeachment according to polls: any Democrats turning on impeachment out of fear of it backfiring are just as cowardly as Jeff Van Drew and may be helping the process self-destruct in on itself and create a self-fulfilling prophecy that will help Trump. If cautious Democrats in the House or Senate, or even the very few possible Republicans with the potential to vote for his impeachment/conviction, continue to see polling that suggests that impeachment is losing support, what reason do they have to even consider it anymore? A self-interested rationale is the only one that will work, and if the politicians fear repercussions at the ballot box, they're more likely to listen. If impeachment does become less popular than it may very well end up hurting Democrats next year, which is the fear, but not one that is as inevitable as Trump's acquittal. Trump can be acquitted by his cabal in the Senate and it still yield bad results for them. The 1998 Clinton impeachment scenario is only one data point that may also suggest that it could at least help tarnish Trump and his party given how the 2000 election went. We don't know what will happen, and all the punditry around impeachment needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The media narrative will be far worse if we turn on our country's only real non-electoral consequence for a President. Democrats giving up is an infuriating surrender to a worse fate than one where we stand by our principles and emphasize how inexcusable Trump's conduct is.

From a less cynical standpoint, if Trump isn't held accountable, even if he ends up getting away with it (which is guaranteed) he would have gotten away with it anyway if he wasn't impeached.  So why not actually do the right thing if we're in another, all too common, lose-lose situation? I'm as pessimistic as anyone, but I would rather remain a pessimist and go down with a fight than remain helpless in the face of the GOP's destruction of our republic.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

WI-03 will still end up voting for him anyway, because muh caravan or whatever new wedge issue Trump is prattering on about throughout October 2020.

[bandg]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

There is no evidence to support a "holiday bump" in approval rating. Going by 538, on Dec 16, 2017, Trump actually hit his all time lowest approval rating of 36.4. In 2018, his approval rating was essentially stagnant at ~42.0 from October all the way through January.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

There is no evidence to support a "holiday bump" in approval rating. Going by 538, on Dec 16, 2017, Trump actually hit his all time lowest approval rating of 36.4. In 2018, his approval rating was essentially stagnant at ~42.0 from October all the way through January.

That makes me feel even worse...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

There is no evidence to support a "holiday bump" in approval rating. Going by 538, on Dec 16, 2017, Trump actually hit his all time lowest approval rating of 36.4. In 2018, his approval rating was essentially stagnant at ~42.0 from October all the way through January.

Wasn't this during a shutdown?

[Cinemark]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

There is no evidence to support a "holiday bump" in approval rating. Going by 538, on Dec 16, 2017, Trump actually hit his all time lowest approval rating of 36.4. In 2018, his approval rating was essentially stagnant at ~42.0 from October all the way through January.

Obama routinely got holiday bumps.

[Cinemark]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

There is no evidence to support a "holiday bump" in approval rating. Going by 538, on Dec 16, 2017, Trump actually hit his all time lowest approval rating of 36.4. In 2018, his approval rating was essentially stagnant at ~42.0 from October all the way through January.

That makes me feel even worse...

Also, not to be rude, but your recent posts make me think you should take a break. We're 11 months from the election. Trump will have more bumps and downtrends. If you freak out every month because of polling movement, your gonna have a miserable 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

There is no evidence to support a "holiday bump" in approval rating. Going by 538, on Dec 16, 2017, Trump actually hit his all time lowest approval rating of 36.4. In 2018, his approval rating was essentially stagnant at ~42.0 from October all the way through January.

That makes me feel even worse...

Also, not to be rude, but your recent posts make me think you should take a break. We're 11 months from the election. Trump will have more bumps and downtrends. If you freak out every month because of polling movement, your gonna have a miserable 2020.

Haha! I appreciate that. You're totally right. My inner voice tells me that all the time, but I can't help but think about this kind of s*** all the time even if I am not on this forum.

Posting here actually offers me some catharsis. I also visit because I just need some kind of encouragement to cling to, any kind, even if it's just a poll.  I'll probably end up taking a break soon enough anyway with Christmas being next week.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Trump's poll levels now exceed any holiday boost. At 43.8% among all and 44.8% among registered voters, they're now the highest they've been at any point since March 2017. Furthermore, impeachment has fallen to just +0.7% (538 tracker for both).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

There is no evidence to support a "holiday bump" in approval rating. Going by 538, on Dec 16, 2017, Trump actually hit his all time lowest approval rating of 36.4. In 2018, his approval rating was essentially stagnant at ~42.0 from October all the way through January.

That makes me feel even worse...

Also, not to be rude, but your recent posts make me think you should take a break. We're 11 months from the election. Trump will have more bumps and downtrends. If you freak out every month because of polling movement, your gonna have a miserable 2020.

It's not just polling movement when Trump reaches the all time high of his actual Presidency the day before he gets impeached by the House.

[Annatar]

Heading into election day 2018, Trump's approval on 538 was -10.9, 41.9/52.8, the exit poll had him at -9 or 2% higher. Since Trump's approval is around -8.2 on 538 now, his actual approval is probably around -6.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Heading into election day 2018, Trump's approval on 538 was -10.9, 41.9/52.8, the exit poll had him at -9 or 2% higher. Since Trump's approval is around -8.2 on 538 now, his actual approval is probably around -6.

-5 among registered voters

[Earthling]

His approval ratings are somewhat higher because he is almost invisible these days. For some reason that always works in his favor.  
Trump does not show himself that much lately. Hardly any rallies, no helicoptertalks, no speeches, etc.
For me that is sign that there something going on with him.

In the end, I still believe Trump won't run for reelection next year. He will survive his trial in the Senate (of course) but medical and political reasons will force him to retire.

[Cinemark]

So...anyway

I think one of the reasons Trump's numbers have improved so quickly in the 538 aggregate is how in sync all the high quality, heavily weighted polls are and just the sheer volume of how many have been released this last week. Seems like they've all centered around -8% and since they're weighted so heavily, its turned the average into something resembling RCP. You'll notice RCP hasnt seen much movement due to them weighing all polls equally in their average.

[bandg]

Gallup 12/2-15

Approve: 45 (+2)
Disapprove: 51 (-3)

Impeach: 46 (-2)
Don't Impeach: 51 (+1)

https://news.gallup.com/poll/271691/trump-approval-inches-support-impeachment-dips.aspx

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Dec. 15-17, 1222 RV (1-month change)

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 49 (+2)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 45 (+2), No 45 (nc)

Biden 52 (+3), Trump 48 (-3)
Sanders 52 (+2), Trump 48 (-1)
Warren 51 (+1), Trump 49 (-1)
Buttigieg 50 (+2), Trump 40 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Mason-Dixon, Dec. 11-16, 625 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Impeach Trump: Support 46, Oppose 50

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Dec. 16-17, 1117 adults including 963 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+2)

Impeach Trump: Yes 46 (+1), No 42 (+1)


RV:

Approve 45 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Strongly approve 28 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Impeach Trump: Yes 47 (nc), No 45 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Dec. 14-17, 1500 adults including 1164 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

Impeach Trump? Yes 47 (+2), No 39 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 47 (+3), No 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Impeach Trump? Yes 50 (+2), No 43 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 50 (+3), No 42 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 40 (nc)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Dec. 14-17, 1500 adults including 1164 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

Impeach Trump? Yes 47 (+2), No 39 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 47 (+3), No 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Impeach Trump? Yes 50 (+2), No 43 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 50 (+3), No 42 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 40 (nc)

So much for the big, bright Trump bump balloon that was bobbing along the American skyline in recent days.

[Cinemark]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

I just kind of felt like reaffirming my point that Holiday bumps are a real thing. If Trump is currently in one is a matter of debate, but Obama got one every year between Thanksgiving and New Years.