AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tbh, yeah, the polls will probably narrow, but acting like it's a pure coinflip is a bit too far.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is everyone talking about North Carolina in a thread about Arizona?

[Antonio the Sixth]

God Sinema is trash.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Honestly, the “Sinema/Gillibrand/Harris/any female politician is too progressive/not progressive enough/too sharp elbowed” thing is tired. Sinema is a very intelligent woman, and I think this comes from her state’s tendency towards maverick minded politicians. This isn’t the house, she can vote for Schumer on the private ballot (or not), but use this as a point of contrast with whoever wins the republican primary.

Hilarious. I was one of Hillary's biggest supporters on this forum and would strongly consider voting for Gillibrand or Harris in the 2020 primary, so it has zero to do with gender. Sinema is just crap. Her swift transition from Prada Socialist to Blue Dog was nauseating, and it's getting even worse now that the final stage of her metamorphosis seems to be turning into something that makes Joe Manchin and Doug Jones look like raging communists and loyal party food soldiers by comparison. It's also just horrid political strategy. If demonizing Schumer, who most voters don't know/care about (ESPECIALLY those that aren't already locked in partisans in either direction) isn't going to work in West Virginia, North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, etc. then it's not going to work in Arizona either. It's just kowtowing to a GOP narrative and senselessly playing defense on an "issue" that was never working against you to begin with.

I couldn't care less about Schumer personally or whether her threat will actually have a practical effect or not, but if you're going to dump your leader in a competitive race because of a year of ineffective demonization, then you might as well just be prepared to get a new one every two years, which is utterly retarded. Meanwhile, she (and most other Democrats for that matter) have no problem throwing their leaders under the bus while allowing the much more toxic Ryan and McConnell to skate by untouched, and allow their puppets like McSally to not have to answer for their association with them. The double standard is ridiculous.

This same critcism applies to Gillibrand, too (although to a lesser extent, obviously). From Blue Dog to Abolish ICE.

The difference is that Gillibrand changed for the better while Sinema has only ever gotten worse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If winning the Senate this year wasn't so important, I'd honestly be rooting for Sinema to lose. The idea of being stuck with such deadweight for decades to come is painful.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If winning the Senate this year wasn't so important, I'd honestly be rooting for Sinema to lose. The idea of being stuck with such deadweight for decades to come is painful.

She's running for Senate in Arizona, not Vermont.

She has to do what she has to do and there's nothing wrong with that.

You're right, she's running in Arizona, not Oklahoma. She's running a more conservative campaign than Clare McCaskill

Sinema is also doing better at this point than McCaskill.

Yeah, clearly that's because she's running as a Conservadem and bashing some random New York Senator in Politico interviews, and not because she's running in a Trump +3 state rather than a Trump +18 state. And I'm sure the fact that her opponent is locked in a fierce and bitter primary while McCaskill's has been already set for like a year now has nothing to do with it either. Clearly it's all because of her right wing posturing that 80% of voters aren't even paying attention to.

And what's wrong with "running as a Conservadem and bashing some random New York Senator"?

She ahead by a lot, so clearly, she knows what she's doing.

These days, you can't take anything for granted.

Even conceding that this helps Sinema (which it doesn't), "maximize your chance of winning at any cost" is a pretty f**king stupid strategy if you want a party that's actually able to implement any coherent policy once in power.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kirsten Gillibrand would make a great majority leader, but I doubt she's interested.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kirsten Gillibrand would make a great majority leader, but I doubt she's interested.

She'd be Pelosi 2.0. Very unpopular.

Why, because she's a woman who's a progressive?

Any Democratic leader is going to be slandered by the GOP no matter how centrist and inoffensive they are. Might as well choose someone who isn't afraid to tell it like it is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The most important thing is that she wins.

See, that's where you're wrong. I've just explained why, if you bother to actually read.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God, why are all the candidates in this race so awful?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Dems somehow won every competitive Senate race this cycle except for Arizona, I certainly wouldn't shed a tear. Hopefully this would convince Democrats to run someone with a spine next time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sinema clearly learned nothing from 2016 if she thinks there's legions of "moderate, independent, reasonable, centrist" heroes out there ready and willing to support the most moderate, independent, reasonable, centrist candidate. She should've spent all this extra time she had slamming McSally for being a Ryan/McConnell stooge and going far to the right to pander to the base. Instead she spent all her time talking about what a moderate hero she was and how much she hated Chuck Schumer. Bold strategy, we'll see if it pays off.

McSally, on the other hand, is already hitting Sinema where it hurts. She is a far superior candidate.

This x1000

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://thinkprogress.org/arizona-republican-kelli-ward-blames-mccain-of-dying-to-hurt-senate-campaign-d4f8480d0e36/
Stay classy...

........

..amazing

[Antonio the Sixth]

With Schumer's conceding to Trump/McConnell and allowing Dems to confirm Drumpf's judges, maybe Sinema's "I won't vote for Schumer" line makes sense.  At least, if you're a Democrat pissed off at this administration.

I personally think shes another Gillibrand, pretending to be more Conservative so she can win and move up. She was a super-Liberal in the state senate when she had a lean D seat, and when she won a tossup seat, she suddenly shifted. She could be setting up for a "I did say I wouldnt vote for Schumer" by going after Schumer from the Left. At least, thats what I hope. Her behavior has just been way too odd and seems like shes trying to be a fake moderate.

The difference is that Gillibrand is the Senator of an already liberal state.  Sinema is poised to become the Senator of a light pink state that, while rapidly trending D, hasn't shed its libertarian or moderate conservative tendencies.

True, but its just a character analysis. For most of her life, she was a Left Dem, then as soon as she won the conservative seat, she changed. And, listening to most of what shes saying on the campaign trail, it all sounds like something Lefties would mock moderates over. Also, to note, that if she does win, then she is up in 2024, which by then, the state should be tilt D, at the least.

Wishful thinking is strong in this one. All signs point to Sinema remaining a moderate hero hack.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love this new Sinema ad its so sexy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HxKhiMPKRc

I find it also interesting how whenever Sinema shows pictures with her brother, she always chooses the pictures when he is wearing a blue lives matter shirt. this is the second ad where she has done that,it's definitely a shout out to that crowd.

OH FFS, that's disgusting. I swear, if I knew for sure that Dems could win 51 seats in the Senate without her, I'd be rooting for her to lose.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

If you look into mcsally's ads are pretty much "vote me i can fly a plane" and "sinema is bad". No actual policy in there. Sinema appears to be going for a positive policy based campaign. McSally prefers personal attacks, i'm not surprised that was how it was with her campaign against Ward too.

In terms of negativity- what Sinema can rely on to go after  McSally is outside groups.  This negative policy based ad has 2 million behind it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxc5p6DTcJo

Running a positive policy based campaign sure seems like a risky bet in 2018, especially the "policy based" part.

Especially when the "policies" you tout are milquetoast, ineffectual half-measures that no one in America gives a sh*t about except Beltway insiders, yes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

Uh oh.

AZ-SEN Lean Dem ---> Tossup

Yeah, if she just lets the GOP bash her with no response she's going to fumble this thing.

Then again, if she gets elected, she'll quite possibly be the worst/most annoying democratic senator from a progressive perspective. What kind of democrat votes with Trump 61% of the time when he lost their district by double digits?

Yeah exactly. The choice in this race is not between a Republican and a Democrat, but between one Republican and 0.6 Republicans.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sinema will probably move left after taking office, at least for four years. She had a reputation as one of the most liberal members of the Arizona Senate. Her move to the center in the House was clearly calculated.

Why would she move to the left while representing a Lean R state when she was a DINO while representing a Lean D district?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah exactly. The choice in this race is not between a Republican and a Democrat, but between one Republican and 0.6 Republicans.

Would you Berniecrats rather have 35 Elizabeth Warrens in the senate and let the GOP steamroll?

> 2018
> still thinking that being a gutless moderate hero makes you inherently more ~electable~

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah exactly. The choice in this race is not between a Republican and a Democrat, but between one Republican and 0.6 Republicans.

Would you Berniecrats rather have 35 Elizabeth Warrens in the senate and let the GOP steamroll?

> 2018
> still thinking that being a gutless moderate hero makes you inherently more ~electable~

> French/Italian Socialist
> Thinks Socialism sells in a majority of American states

> literally any time and place in history
> thinks voters actually vote based on a label

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah exactly. The choice in this race is not between a Republican and a Democrat, but between one Republican and 0.6 Republicans.

Would you Berniecrats rather have 35 Elizabeth Warrens in the senate and let the GOP steamroll?

> 2018
> still thinking that being a gutless moderate hero makes you inherently more ~electable~

> French/Italian Socialist
> Thinks Socialism sells in a majority of American states

> literally any time and place in history
> thinks voters actually vote based on a label

Let me know when southern whites and blacks unite in class solidarity to overthrow the Bourgeoise.

What a compelling argument in favor of Sinema.

[Antonio the Sixth]

With all these compelling arguments, I am now convinced: Sinema is a stellar candidate and the only Democrat who could ever win Titanium-R Arizona in a red wave year like 2018. Thanks for enlightening me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

He's right that moderate heroism is a terrible campaign strategy, though. We're seeing examples over and over again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lol, yeah, because Bredesen did so well by running to the center

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know because I was supposed to marry a bisexual pantsuit wearer once.

The bisexual pantsuit wearers I know are mostly Catholics with almost the exact opposite of Sinema's politics, but I know my experiences are not representative.

It might be the difference between Rocky Mountain Democrats and New England Democrats.

I'd say it's likelier to be the difference between Catholic bisexuals and non-Catholic bisexuals.

My ex considered herself catholic.

Then, yeah, maybe it's an East Coast thing. (Or a degree-of-devoutness thing, but I don't want to make assumptions about your ex.)

Anyway, to get back on topic, does anybody really expect Sinema to do the Gillibrand Pivot as a white woman representing Arizona? Her current political persona seems pretty close to my understanding of what the Anglo segments of the Democratic coalition there want and will continue to vote for. Maybe if Gallego or somebody follows her into the Senate then we'll see a more progressive posture from them.

Yeah. The only way I could see her moving to the left is if she's angling for a Presidential run down the line (which I wouldn't put past her, but that won't be relevant before 2022 or so).