AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[Person Man]

I know because I was supposed to marry a bisexual pantsuit wearer once.

The bisexual pantsuit wearers I know are mostly Catholics with almost the exact opposite of Sinema's politics, but I know my experiences are not representative.

It might be the difference between Rocky Mountain Democrats and New England Democrats.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I know because I was supposed to marry a bisexual pantsuit wearer once.

The bisexual pantsuit wearers I know are mostly Catholics with almost the exact opposite of Sinema's politics, but I know my experiences are not representative.

It might be the difference between Rocky Mountain Democrats and New England Democrats.

I'd say it's likelier to be the difference between Catholic bisexuals and non-Catholic bisexuals.

[Peanut]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

[Person Man]

I know because I was supposed to marry a bisexual pantsuit wearer once.

The bisexual pantsuit wearers I know are mostly Catholics with almost the exact opposite of Sinema's politics, but I know my experiences are not representative.

It might be the difference between Rocky Mountain Democrats and New England Democrats.

I'd say it's likelier to be the difference between Catholic bisexuals and non-Catholic bisexuals.

My ex considered herself catholic.

[Devout Centrist]

Sinema literally invoked John McCain in her victory speech. She’s going to be Hot Joe Manchin.

You do know McCain is insanely popular here right now? Even Democrats invoke his memory a lot.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I know because I was supposed to marry a bisexual pantsuit wearer once.

The bisexual pantsuit wearers I know are mostly Catholics with almost the exact opposite of Sinema's politics, but I know my experiences are not representative.

It might be the difference between Rocky Mountain Democrats and New England Democrats.

I'd say it's likelier to be the difference between Catholic bisexuals and non-Catholic bisexuals.

My ex considered herself catholic.

Then, yeah, maybe it's an East Coast thing. (Or a degree-of-devoutness thing, but I don't want to make assumptions about your ex.)

Anyway, to get back on topic, does anybody really expect Sinema to do the Gillibrand Pivot as a white woman representing Arizona? Her current political persona seems pretty close to my understanding of what the Anglo segments of the Democratic coalition there want and will continue to vote for. Maybe if Gallego or somebody follows her into the Senate then we'll see a more progressive posture from them.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

-2 in the Senate, assuming Scott holds on. Not bad, considering the map.

Yeah, it's really not bad at all. The handwringing was somewhat understandable when it looked like we'd lose AZ/MT.

It's nice to see the narrative shift back towards Blue Wave. Regardless of what Fox says, that was a bad night for the Rs and they could've done better in the Senate.

[Person Man]

-2 in the Senate, assuming Scott holds on. Not bad, considering the map.

Yeah, it's really not bad at all. The handwringing was somewhat understandable when it looked like we'd lose AZ/MT.

It's nice to see the narrative shift back towards Blue Wave. Regardless of what Fox says, that was a bad night for the Rs and they could've done better in the Senate.

They did slightly better than they were expected of outside of the House and slightly worse in the House. I expect Ds to eventually get 40 seats or close.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

[OneJ]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

This. Although Arizona will probably be bluer by the time she runs for reelection.

[libertpaulian]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

This. Although Arizona will probably be bluer by the time she runs for reelection.

That may be true, but Arizona has always been known for its moderate, independent political environment.  Sinema was elected with the expectation that she'd continue in that tradition.

[Calthrina950]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

This. Although Arizona will probably be bluer by the time she runs for reelection.

That may be true, but Arizona has always been known for its moderate, independent political environment.  Sinema was elected with the expectation that she'd continue in that tradition.

Hopefully she does. Her addition to the Senate might help to somewhat counterbalance the loss of Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Her addition to the Senate might help to somewhat counterbalance the loss of Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly.

It really won't. Not all moderates are cut from the same cloth.

[libertpaulian]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

This. Although Arizona will probably be bluer by the time she runs for reelection.

That may be true, but Arizona has always been known for its moderate, independent political environment.  Sinema was elected with the expectation that she'd continue in that tradition.

Hopefully she does. Her addition to the Senate might help to somewhat counterbalance the loss of Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly.

Agreed.  I'm still bummed about Donnelly, but I've come to accept that his loss was mostly his own doing, especially as the late ballots show his margin of defeat narrowing.

[Calthrina950]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

This. Although Arizona will probably be bluer by the time she runs for reelection.

That may be true, but Arizona has always been known for its moderate, independent political environment.  Sinema was elected with the expectation that she'd continue in that tradition.

Hopefully she does. Her addition to the Senate might help to somewhat counterbalance the loss of Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly.

Agreed.  I'm still bummed about Donnelly, but I've come to accept that his loss was mostly his own doing, especially as the late ballots show his margin of defeat narrowing.

Donnelly should have focused more on the suburbs of Indianapolis than he did, and he shouldn't have run his "pro-wall" ad campaign. That probably helped to depress turnout among Democratic voters throughout the state. Hopefully, as the final results are tabulated in Arizona though, Sinema clears the 50% mark.

Her addition to the Senate might help to somewhat counterbalance the loss of Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly.

It really won't. Not all moderates are cut from the same cloth.

I'm not sure how you can say that, given that Sinema has one of the most conservative voting records of any House Democrat, and has carefully positioned herself as a moderate centrist over the past two years. I would argue that is a major part of the reason she won. She was able to appeal to independent and lean Republican voters in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Her addition to the Senate might help to somewhat counterbalance the loss of Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly.

It really won't. Not all moderates are cut from the same cloth.

I'm not sure how you can say that, given that Sinema has one of the most conservative voting records of any House Democrat, and has carefully positioned herself as a moderate centrist over the past two years. I would argue that is a major part of the reason she won. She was able to appeal to independent and lean Republican voters in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

Do I really need to spell this out? Donnelly (less so McCaskill and Heitkamp, but definitely Donnelly) was moderate in that he had a center-right image on muh social issues while being relatively reliably pro-worker. Sinema is moderate in that she's a reliable social liberal who's centrist to center-right on "bread and butter" issues. Not all moderate Democrats are considered moderate for the same reasons, and replacing one type of moderate Democrat with another doesn't necessarily keep the same ideological balance within the caucus.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know because I was supposed to marry a bisexual pantsuit wearer once.

The bisexual pantsuit wearers I know are mostly Catholics with almost the exact opposite of Sinema's politics, but I know my experiences are not representative.

It might be the difference between Rocky Mountain Democrats and New England Democrats.

I'd say it's likelier to be the difference between Catholic bisexuals and non-Catholic bisexuals.

My ex considered herself catholic.

Then, yeah, maybe it's an East Coast thing. (Or a degree-of-devoutness thing, but I don't want to make assumptions about your ex.)

Anyway, to get back on topic, does anybody really expect Sinema to do the Gillibrand Pivot as a white woman representing Arizona? Her current political persona seems pretty close to my understanding of what the Anglo segments of the Democratic coalition there want and will continue to vote for. Maybe if Gallego or somebody follows her into the Senate then we'll see a more progressive posture from them.

Yeah. The only way I could see her moving to the left is if she's angling for a Presidential run down the line (which I wouldn't put past her, but that won't be relevant before 2022 or so).

[Calthrina950]

Her addition to the Senate might help to somewhat counterbalance the loss of Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly.

It really won't. Not all moderates are cut from the same cloth.

I'm not sure how you can say that, given that Sinema has one of the most conservative voting records of any House Democrat, and has carefully positioned herself as a moderate centrist over the past two years. I would argue that is a major part of the reason she won. She was able to appeal to independent and lean Republican voters in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

Do I really need to spell this out? Donnelly (less so McCaskill and Heitkamp, but definitely Donnelly) was moderate in that he had a center-right image on muh social issues while being relatively reliably pro-worker. Sinema is moderate in that she's a reliable social liberal who's centrist to center-right on "bread and butter" issues. Not all moderate Democrats are considered moderate for the same reasons, and replacing one type of moderate Democrat with another doesn't necessarily keep the same ideological balance within the caucus.

There is no need for you to get hostile like that. I don't take too kindly to people who engage in such antics. Of course, no two politicians are exactly the same. I am well aware of the ideological differences that exist within and between the parties.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

This. Although Arizona will probably be bluer by the time she runs for reelection.

That may be true, but Arizona has always been known for its moderate, independent political environment.  Sinema was elected with the expectation that she'd continue in that tradition.

Has it though?  I mean, McCain, Kyl, McSally, and Flake were all pretty right-wing with all but McCain being decidedly partisan as well, the House delegation has recently included the likes of Matt Salmon, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, David Schweikert, and Trent Franks.  Plus, the state has produced Jan Brewer, Joe Arpaio, Kelly Ward, etc.  Duecy isn’t a moderate by any stretch either.  If you really want to go back in time, the state produced Barry Goldwater.

[Oryxslayer]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

This. Although Arizona will probably be bluer by the time she runs for reelection.

That may be true, but Arizona has always been known for its moderate, independent political environment.  Sinema was elected with the expectation that she'd continue in that tradition.

Has it though?  I mean, McCain, Kyl, McSally, and Flake were all pretty right-wing with all but McCain being decidedly partisan as well, the House delegation has recently included the likes of Matt Salmon, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, David Schweikert, and Trent Franks.  Plus, the state has produced Jan Brewer, Joe Arpaio, Kelly Ward, etc.  Duecy isn’t a moderate by any stretch either.  If you really want to go back in time, the state produced Barry Goldwater.

Yeah when I first libpaulian's post, I thought instantly of Goldwater. But he still has a point. Arizona, at least in the popular political imagination, has always been a state where the independent voice is stronger then elsewhere. But independents are not just moderates. There are a growing chunk of indies who are just as, or even more extreme then the two parties. Its how you get people like McCain legislating in the same state as people like Ward.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh BTW, MCSally finally got a favorable bucket lol

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1062821573655068672

[Young Conservative]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

This. Although Arizona will probably be bluer by the time she runs for reelection.

That may be true, but Arizona has always been known for its moderate, independent political environment.  Sinema was elected with the expectation that she'd continue in that tradition.

Ah yes, historically moderate Arizona. Like when they voted for Jan Brewer, Joe Arpaio and Jeff Flake with little problem

Arpaio lost, Flake had an independent streak, and Brewer left office with high unpopularity

[IceSpear]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

This. Although Arizona will probably be bluer by the time she runs for reelection.

That may be true, but Arizona has always been known for its moderate, independent political environment.  Sinema was elected with the expectation that she'd continue in that tradition.

Ah yes, historically moderate Arizona. Like when they voted for Jan Brewer, Joe Arpaio and Jeff Flake with little problem

Arpaio lost, Flake had an independent streak, and Brewer left office with high unpopularity

It doesn't count as an "independent streak" when the only thing independent about you is your yapping mouth.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sinema will probably (I hope) Gillibrandize in the Senate.

Sinema’s not representing New York

This. Although Arizona will probably be bluer by the time she runs for reelection.

That may be true, but Arizona has always been known for its moderate, independent political environment.  Sinema was elected with the expectation that she'd continue in that tradition.

Ah yes, historically moderate Arizona. Like when they voted for Jan Brewer, Joe Arpaio and Jeff Flake with little problem

Arpaio lost, Flake had an independent streak, and Brewer left office with high unpopularity

LOL