AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[Arkansas Yankee]

In 2016 PPP conducted a poll Aug 26-28.  It had a tie at 43% between McCain and Kilpatrick.

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/AZResults1.pdf

It was posted in this list https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2016

I can find no other listing of a public poll by PPP in this 2016 race after this date.

I have noticed a tendency of PPP to conducted polls prior to September showing good Democratic results.  Then they disappear if the seat trends Republican.  It will be interesting to see if they do a quick early poll in the McSally v. Sinema race and follow it with additional,polls.

This is how I think PPP shows its Democratic bias in some races.

We will need to watch for this possibility in Florida gubernatorial race also.

[Roblox]

With Schumer's conceding to Trump/McConnell and allowing Dems to confirm Drumpf's judges, maybe Sinema's "I won't vote for Schumer" line makes sense.  At least, if you're a Democrat pissed off at this administration.

I personally think shes another Gillibrand, pretending to be more Conservative so she can win and move up. She was a super-Liberal in the state senate when she had a lean D seat, and when she won a tossup seat, she suddenly shifted. She could be setting up for a "I did say I wouldnt vote for Schumer" by going after Schumer from the Left. At least, thats what I hope. Her behavior has just been way too odd and seems like shes trying to be a fake moderate.

The difference is that Gillibrand is the Senator of an already liberal state.  Sinema is poised to become the Senator of a light pink state that, while rapidly trending D, hasn't shed its libertarian or moderate conservative tendencies.

True, but its just a character analysis. For most of her life, she was a Left Dem, then as soon as she won the conservative seat, she changed. And, listening to most of what shes saying on the campaign trail, it all sounds like something Lefties would mock moderates over. Also, to note, that if she does win, then she is up in 2024, which by then, the state should be tilt D, at the least.

Wishful thinking is strong in this one. All signs point to Sinema remaining a moderate hero hack.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

lol

https://twitter.com/stevemorris__/status/1037696237464641537

[Landslide Lyndon]

lol

https://twitter.com/stevemorris__/status/1037696237464641537

Like I was saying, no need for Sinema to spend money trying to paint McSally as a right-wing nut when McSally herself does such a good job on that front.

[Xing]

lol

https://twitter.com/stevemorris__/status/1037696237464641537

I guess she forgot that the primary is already over.

[JG]

How popular is the ACA in Arizona?

[Webnicz]

lol

https://twitter.com/stevemorris__/status/1037696237464641537

Most of us in Arizona have known for a few months now that McSally is basically the same person as Kelli Ward but with more money and no chemtrails.

It's unfortunate she decided to go to the right of where she was before just to win a primary, tbh with all the money she had she probably didn't have to.

[Webnicz]

I love this new Sinema ad its so sexy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HxKhiMPKRc

I find it also interesting how whenever Sinema shows pictures with her brother, she always chooses the pictures when he is wearing a blue lives matter shirt. this is the second ad where she has done that,it's definitely a shout out to that crowd.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

With Schumer's conceding to Trump/McConnell and allowing Dems to confirm Drumpf's judges, maybe Sinema's "I won't vote for Schumer" line makes sense.  At least, if you're a Democrat pissed off at this administration.

I personally think shes another Gillibrand, pretending to be more Conservative so she can win and move up. She was a super-Liberal in the state senate when she had a lean D seat, and when she won a tossup seat, she suddenly shifted. She could be setting up for a "I did say I wouldnt vote for Schumer" by going after Schumer from the Left. At least, thats what I hope. Her behavior has just been way too odd and seems like shes trying to be a fake moderate.

The difference is that Gillibrand is the Senator of an already liberal state.  Sinema is poised to become the Senator of a light pink state that, while rapidly trending D, hasn't shed its libertarian or moderate conservative tendencies.

True, but its just a character analysis. For most of her life, she was a Left Dem, then as soon as she won the conservative seat, she changed. And, listening to most of what shes saying on the campaign trail, it all sounds like something Lefties would mock moderates over. Also, to note, that if she does win, then she is up in 2024, which by then, the state should be tilt D, at the least.

Wishful thinking is strong in this one. All signs point to Sinema remaining a moderate hero hack.

Hack? When was the last time Dems had an AZ Senate seat? How about winning some elections before complaining about people?

[IceSpear]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love this new Sinema ad its so sexy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HxKhiMPKRc

I find it also interesting how whenever Sinema shows pictures with her brother, she always chooses the pictures when he is wearing a blue lives matter shirt. this is the second ad where she has done that,it's definitely a shout out to that crowd.

OH FFS, that's disgusting. I swear, if I knew for sure that Dems could win 51 seats in the Senate without her, I'd be rooting for her to lose.

[Webnicz]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

If you look into mcsally's ads are pretty much "vote me i can fly a plane" and "sinema is bad". No actual policy in there. Sinema appears to be going for a positive policy based campaign. McSally prefers personal attacks, i'm not surprised that was how it was with her campaign against Ward too.

In terms of negativity- what Sinema can rely on to go after  McSally is outside groups.  This negative policy based ad has 2 million behind it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxc5p6DTcJo

[Beet]

Sinema is the only Dem Senate candidate I'm rooting for this cycle!

[IceSpear]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

If you look into mcsally's ads are pretty much "vote me i can fly a plane" and "sinema is bad". No actual policy in there. Sinema appears to be going for a positive policy based campaign. McSally prefers personal attacks, i'm not surprised that was how it was with her campaign against Ward too.

In terms of negativity- what Sinema can rely on to go after  McSally is outside groups.  This negative policy based ad has 2 million behind it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxc5p6DTcJo

Running a positive policy based campaign sure seems like a risky bet in 2018, especially the "policy based" part.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

If you look into mcsally's ads are pretty much "vote me i can fly a plane" and "sinema is bad". No actual policy in there. Sinema appears to be going for a positive policy based campaign. McSally prefers personal attacks, i'm not surprised that was how it was with her campaign against Ward too.

In terms of negativity- what Sinema can rely on to go after  McSally is outside groups.  This negative policy based ad has 2 million behind it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxc5p6DTcJo

Running a positive policy based campaign sure seems like a risky bet in 2018, especially the "policy based" part.

Especially when the "policies" you tout are milquetoast, ineffectual half-measures that no one in America gives a sh*t about except Beltway insiders, yes.

[Webnicz]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

If you look into mcsally's ads are pretty much "vote me i can fly a plane" and "sinema is bad". No actual policy in there. Sinema appears to be going for a positive policy based campaign. McSally prefers personal attacks, i'm not surprised that was how it was with her campaign against Ward too.

In terms of negativity- what Sinema can rely on to go after  McSally is outside groups.  This negative policy based ad has 2 million behind it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxc5p6DTcJo

Running a positive policy based campaign sure seems like a risky bet in 2018, especially the "policy based" part.

we all have our opinions.  But using only negative attacks that are personal  and not talking about policy, definitely translates to "im loosing and hitting the panic button"

[Sumner 1868]

I love this new Sinema ad its so sexy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HxKhiMPKRc

I find it also interesting how whenever Sinema shows pictures with her brother, she always chooses the pictures when he is wearing a blue lives matter shirt. this is the second ad where she has done that,it's definitely a shout out to that crowd.

Re$i$tance!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I love this new Sinema ad its so sexy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HxKhiMPKRc

I find it also interesting how whenever Sinema shows pictures with her brother, she always chooses the pictures when he is wearing a blue lives matter shirt. this is the second ad where she has done that,it's definitely a shout out to that crowd.

Freedom ad!

[Florida Man for Crime]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

Uh oh.

AZ-SEN Lean Dem ---> Tossup

[Roblox]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

Uh oh.

AZ-SEN Lean Dem ---> Tossup

Yeah, if she just lets the GOP bash her with no response she's going to fumble this thing.

Then again, if she gets elected, she'll quite possibly be the worst/most annoying democratic senator from a progressive perspective. What kind of democrat votes with Trump 61% of the time when he lost their district by double digits?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

Uh oh.

AZ-SEN Lean Dem ---> Tossup

For once, could you not be a hack.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

Uh oh.

AZ-SEN Lean Dem ---> Tossup

Yeah, if she just lets the GOP bash her with no response she's going to fumble this thing.

Then again, if she gets elected, she'll quite possibly be the worst/most annoying democratic senator from a progressive perspective. What kind of democrat votes with Trump 61% of the time when he lost their district by double digits?

Yeah exactly. The choice in this race is not between a Republican and a Democrat, but between one Republican and 0.6 Republicans.

[AtorBoltox]

Why exactly is sinema running to the right of Joe Manchin?

[Bidenworth2020]

UGH!!!! This is what always happens! Dems appear ahead in a winnable race, then they pull the holier than thou sh**t and go for the fake moderates, not focusing any attention to the base, and end up losing in a heartbreaker.

[Former Kentuckian]

Putting aside the Prada Socialist's transparent pandering for a second...is she just going to let McSally savage her over the next two months and never throw a single punch back? She's attacked a Senator from New York more than she's attacked her own opponent.

From what I understand she is going for a positive campaign, she never has run a negative campaign in her previous elections to congress.

Uh oh.

AZ-SEN Lean Dem ---> Tossup

Yeah, if she just lets the GOP bash her with no response she's going to fumble this thing.

Then again, if she gets elected, she'll quite possibly be the worst/most annoying democratic senator from a progressive perspective. What kind of democrat votes with Trump 61% of the time when he lost their district by double digits?

Democratic groups are attacking McSally, so it's not like she's getting by unscathed