Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1497368313873133570

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1497368313873133570

Putin is probably like "I JUST CRUSHED THE PROTESTERS FOR YOU, YOU UNGRATEFUL PUPPET"

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Shockingly according to a new Poll Voters think Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497340903643566091

I dislike Trump as much as any other Democrat, I agree with the 62%. Putin generally avoided provoking the US during the Trump administration. Trump espoused things Putin wanted (leaving NATO, reducing US troop numbers in Europe, etc.) and openly mentioned his admiration of Putin. If Putin invaded Ukraine, he'd lose any hope of weakening NATO (not to mention actively give NATO countries reason to support the organization) and give up the best relationship with a US President he's ever had. Invasion under a Trump administration makes no sense for Putin.

Yes, if only we had a Putin lickspittle in the White House, Putin would never have invaded Ukraine. I don’t know why you think it would damage his relationship with Trump when Trump is saying how smart and strong Putin is for invading Ukraine or why you think an even further damaged NATO wouldn’t embolden him.

I’m not sure how this is much better than Sergei’s ‘if only the Ukrainians had personally blow Putin this would all go away’ hot take.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1497368313873133570

This makes sense, Kazakhstan has many similarities to Ukraine: long land border with Russia, regions bordering Russia with significant ethnic Russian populations, long history of Russian/Soviet rule over its people, a Russian/native language divide, etc. The Kazakh government may have brutally crushed peaceful protests at home with the help of Russian special forces, but it certainly doesn't want to legitimize Russia invading neighboring countries under the guise of self defense.

Edit: Plus Kazakhstan was a signatory of the Budapest Memorandum like Ukraine. Seeing Russia flagrantly violate the use of force and territorial integrity guarantees for one of the signatories likely doesn't make the Kazakh government all too happy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

China's breaking formation. Putin is probably not amused.


https://twitter.com/julianborger/status/1497351508366667779

[Oakvale]

Shockingly according to a new Poll Voters think Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497340903643566091

I dislike Trump as much as any other Democrat, I agree with the 62%. Putin generally avoided provoking the US during the Trump administration. Trump espoused things Putin wanted (leaving NATO, reducing US troop numbers in Europe, etc.) and openly mentioned his admiration of Putin. If Putin invaded Ukraine, he'd lose any hope of weakening NATO (not to mention actively give NATO countries reason to support the organization) and give up the best relationship with a US President he's ever had. Invasion under a Trump administration makes no sense for Putin.

Yes, if only we had a Putin lickspittle in the White House, Putin would never have invaded Ukraine. I don’t know why you think it would damage his relationship with Trump when Trump is saying how smart and strong Putin is for invading Ukraine or why you think an even further damaged NATO wouldn’t embolden him.

I’m not sure how this is much better than Sergei’s ‘if only the Ukrainians had personally blow Putin this would all go away’ hot take.

Presumably the logic is Trump would have used US power to just hand Ukraine to Russia without the need for a war in about February 2021.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What progress are the Russian troops making with their "denazification" efforts btw??


https://twitter.com/Ukrainerabbi/status/1497292070276550656

[Storr]

Shockingly according to a new Poll Voters think Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump was President
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497340903643566091

I dislike Trump as much as any other Democrat, I agree with the 62%. Putin generally avoided provoking the US during the Trump administration. Trump espoused things Putin wanted (leaving NATO, reducing US troop numbers in Europe, etc.) and openly mentioned his admiration of Putin. If Putin invaded Ukraine, he'd lose any hope of weakening NATO (not to mention actively give NATO countries reason to support the organization) and give up the best relationship with a US President he's ever had. Invasion under a Trump administration makes no sense for Putin.

Yes, if only we had a Putin lickspittle in the White House, Putin would never have invaded Ukraine. I don’t know why you think it would damage his relationship with Trump when Trump is saying how smart and strong Putin is for invading Ukraine or why you think an even further damaged NATO wouldn’t embolden him.

I’m not sure how this is much better than Sergei’s ‘if only the Ukrainians had personally blow Putin this would all go away’ hot take.

Presumably the logic is Trump would have used US power to just hand Ukraine to Russia without the need for a war in about February 2021.

I'm not saying it would have been a good thing for Trump to have won reelection in 2020. I just don't feel it would have been in Putin's interest to invade (he probably still would have massed troops on the border at some point to pressure the Ukrainian government) had Trump been reelected.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What progress are the Russian troops making with their "denazification" efforts btw??


https://twitter.com/Ukrainerabbi/status/1497292070276550656

Denazify Ukraine by murdering it’s Jewish president was not in my bingo card.

[Aurelius]

What progress are the Russian troops making with their "denazification" efforts btw??


https://twitter.com/Ukrainerabbi/status/1497292070276550656

When Russia talks about Nazis in Ukraine, they're playing Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon except it's six degrees from anyone who has expressed even tepid support for Stepan Bandera.

Back in 2014 Russian internal propaganda kept flipping back and forth between "Nazi coup" and "Jewish coup". Nothing to do with actual Nazis.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What progress are the Russian troops making with their "denazification" efforts btw??


https://twitter.com/Ukrainerabbi/status/1497292070276550656

When Russia talks about Nazis in Ukraine, they're playing Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon except it's six degrees from anyone who has expressed even tepid support for Stepan Bandera.

And the only part of Ukraine that has any actual mass constituency for vaguely-pro-Nazi sentiment--the historically Polish- or Austrian-dominated, mostly Catholic rather than mostly Orthodox far west of the country that was Bandera's own stomping grounds--has so far suffered the least from the invasion, even factoring in the air raids.

[Storr]

Institute for the Study of War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Update February 25th:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2022

PDF: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20February%2025%202022.pdf

"Immediate items to watch:

Social media users observed a Russian armored column assembling in Stolin, Belarus, on February 25.[29] These forces could potentially conduct a new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.

Russian Naval Infantry have not yet conducted amphibious landings but retain the capability to do so against the Odesa or the Azov Sea coasts or both.

Russian forces continue to refrain from using their likely full spectrum of air and missile capabilities. The Ukrainian air force also remains active. Russian operations will likely steadily wear down Ukrainian air capabilities and eventually take the Ukrainian air force out of the fight.

Russian forces have not yet attempted the decapitation strike several analysts and outlets have forecasted and may attempt to do so in the near future.

Russia has sufficient conventional military power to reinforce each of its current axes of advance and overpower the conventional Ukrainian forces defending them."

[ugabug]

Maybe China isn't as supportive of Russia as i thought they were going to be.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/china-restrict-financing-russia-ukraina-invasion

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

US Bank Stadium is lit in blue and yellow tonight.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497389484362461187?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[Storr]

The BND is the German foreign intelligence agency.

https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1497387915168694275?s=20&t=bHMxVVib6ZxK...

[WMS]

Haven’t seen these yet here:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497288086622978048?s=21

https://twitter.com/calebwatney/status/1497314136182697984?s=21

https://twitter.com/m_morganjones/status/1497229556306300929?s=21

https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1497304668703236102?s=21

https://twitter.com/maxwelltani/status/1497299896398974984?s=21

https://twitter.com/itsborys/status/1497203241100132354?s=21

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497136374369116171?s=21

[Middle-aged Europe]

For whom it may interest, German magazine Der Spiegel has a rather lengthy English-language article on the prospective impact of Ukraine on German politics, titled "The Calamitous Errors of Germany's Russia Policy":

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-military-and-political-disaster-the-calamitous-errors-of-germany-s-russia-policy-a-c8b9818e-4bc2-4eb2-ac55-39e5790b29b2

One SPD politician has essentially described current events as Europe's 9/11. The German government is planning to talk next week about an increase of its defense budget. And it seems certain that we'll be getting a whole lot of LNG terminals in the years to come.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

For whom it may interest, German magazine Der Spiegel has a rather lengthy English-language article on the prospective impact of Ukraine on German politics, titled "The Calamitous Errors of Germany's Russia Policy":

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-military-and-political-disaster-the-calamitous-errors-of-germany-s-russia-policy-a-c8b9818e-4bc2-4eb2-ac55-39e5790b29b2

One SPD politician has essentially described current events as Europe's 9/11. The German government is planning to talk next week about an increase of its defense budget. And it seems certain that we'll be getting a whole lot of LNG terminals in the years to come.

If Der Spiegel is moving on this, can we hope that German public opinion is finally turning on Russia?

[jojoju1998]

Guys. I know prayers don't help, but in this case, we might just see the fall of a country and so Pray for the Children. They don't deserve this evil. Putin is evil, and I hope he rots in hell. Pray for the Brave Ukranian soldiers, and civilians, they have much more courage than I do.

As a child of refugees who fled from a country that also fell, I know the costs of tyranny, dictatorship. It just breeds misery. Human resentment. Fear. Trauma. Pain.

I don't know what the US will do or can do, if and when Ukraine falls, but... sigh.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497392300019920897

I don't know how as Russia you can let this happen a 2nd time.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497128097140858901
Unconfirmed, but Ukraine may have hit a Russian airfield/staging area with a cruise missile.

[Storr]

For whom it may interest, German magazine Der Spiegel has a rather lengthy English-language article on the prospective impact of Ukraine on German politics, titled "The Calamitous Errors of Germany's Russia Policy":

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-military-and-political-disaster-the-calamitous-errors-of-germany-s-russia-policy-a-c8b9818e-4bc2-4eb2-ac55-39e5790b29b2

One SPD politician has essentially described current events as Europe's 9/11. The German government is planning to talk next week about an increase of its defense budget. And it seems certain that we'll be getting a whole lot of LNG terminals in the years to come.

A statistic that shocked me was that the Bundeswehr had more than 4,700 tanks in 1989 and today there are less than 300 in inventory!

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

For whom it may interest, German magazine Der Spiegel has a rather lengthy English-language article on the prospective impact of Ukraine on German politics, titled "The Calamitous Errors of Germany's Russia Policy":

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-military-and-political-disaster-the-calamitous-errors-of-germany-s-russia-policy-a-c8b9818e-4bc2-4eb2-ac55-39e5790b29b2

One SPD politician has essentially described current events as Europe's 9/11. The German government is planning to talk next week about an increase of its defense budget. And it seems certain that we'll be getting a whole lot of LNG terminals in the years to come.

A statistic that shocked me was that the Bundeswehr had more than 4,700 tanks in 1989 and today there are less than 300 in inventory!

FWIW, the current thinking is that tanks aren’t really survivable in a peer-peer conflict because of the large scale presence of manpads and long range precision munitions. The USMC is also ditching their armored divisions.

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1497377520663941121