Polish Politics and Elections

[warandwar]

US Results by State:

This basically looks like a heatmap of the polish community

[Logical]

After losing his seat to a woman within his party list, the internet's favorite crazy uncle, Janusz Korwin-Mikke says women should not have the right to vote lol.
https://twitter.com/gromotapl/status/1713954547058593905

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

After losing his seat to a woman within his party list, internet's favorite crazy uncle, Janusz Korwin-Mikke says women should not have the right to vote lol.
https://twitter.com/gromotapl/status/1713954547058593905

I still remember the pic of him holding a femboy at some anime convention

[Harlow]

After losing his seat to a woman within his party list, internet's favorite crazy uncle, Janusz Korwin-Mikke says women should not have the right to vote lol.
https://twitter.com/gromotapl/status/1713954547058593905

W... why all the swords? Who is this man.

[Logical]

After losing his seat to a woman within his party list, internet's favorite crazy uncle, Janusz Korwin-Mikke says women should not have the right to vote lol.
https://twitter.com/gromotapl/status/1713954547058593905

W... why all the swords? Who is this man.

Where to even begin......

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

After losing his seat to a woman within his party list, internet's favorite crazy uncle, Janusz Korwin-Mikke says women should not have the right to vote lol.
https://twitter.com/gromotapl/status/1713954547058593905

I still remember the pic of him holding a femboy at some anime convention

[adma]

The Chicago Metro Area is the main reason PiS was the winner here in the United States. In 14 polling states, the only lost 2 and they only failed to get a majority in a total of 4. In some polling places they got over 70% of the vote!

So the same constituency that votes 70% Democratic in US election votes 70% for the Polish GOP. Ideological splits.

It makes no sense at all to map American politics onto the politics of a country where both major parties are right-wing.

Though just because the *constituency* might be 70% Dem, doesn't mean that the *Poles within the constituency* are among that 70%.  Keep that in mind.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

and there it is. PiS 35.55, KO 30.55.

[Pericles]

Great news from Poland, this is an important step for this great country and the EU to have a bright future.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

so why did Lewica do so bad compared to 2019? Voters coalescing behind KO to try and kick PiS out better?

Exit polls provided data that generally yes - more than 1/4 of previous electorate voted for PO. But we must also remember that in 2019 leader of PO was Grzegorz Schetyna. PO is now a little bit more liberal in terms of topics like abortion etc. - and we must remember that Left electorate is left wing only in terms of such issues, not really economically - so for them switching to the PO is not really that difficult. Other thing is turnout - more voters, but those new voters were not really charmed by the Left.

[It’s so Joever]

US Results by State:

This basically looks like a heatmap of the polish community

PA is the exception.

[Oryxslayer]

so why did Lewica do so bad compared to 2019? Voters coalescing behind KO to try and kick PiS out better?

Exit polls provided data that generally yes - more than 1/4 of previous electorate voted for PO. But we must also remember that in 2019 leader of PO was Grzegorz Schetyna. PO is now a little bit more liberal in terms of topics like abortion etc. - and we must remember that Left electorate is left wing only in terms of such issues, not really economically - so for them switching to the PO is not really that difficult. Other thing is turnout - more voters, but those new voters were not really charmed by the Left.

Something else we should perhaps consider is the surge for TD/Third Way/2050 in cities. They previously had mostly the Rural/Agrarian base of PSL in 2019. The new ticket being a partnership with Hołownia and his Green approach provides the urban "activist" type an alternative ticket to just Lewica.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

99.72% reporting (+/- compared to 98.72% in)

PiS: 35.52% (-0.24%)
KO: 30.59% (+0.23%)
TD: 14.42% (-0.01%)
Lewica: 8.57% (+0.04%)
Kon: 7.15% (+/- 0.00%)
BS: 1.86% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.12% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

https://twitter.com/broderly/status/1713950624377655313?s=20

[M0096]

https://twitter.com/broderly/status/1713950624377655313?s=20

He has almost twice as many votes as party leader Włodzimierz Czarzasty, who carpetbagged to that constituency. Constituency no. 32 is problably the most leftist one in Poland, so Left won 2 seats, but there was chance that leader of Left would not win reelection.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/broderly/status/1713950624377655313?s=20

He has almost twice as many votes as party leader Włodzimierz Czarzasty, who carpetbagged to that constituency. Constituency no. 32 is problably the most leftist one in Poland, so Left won 2 seats, but there was chance that leader of Left would not win reelection.

TFW you get put at the bottom of your party's list and get more votes than the guy at the top.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

It's actually looking like the gap will be 4.75% or so, it's been a KO rout the last 0.1% which has made the margin go from 4.93 to 4.81

[Oryxslayer]

There will probably be plenty detailed maps that will come out soon, but here's just  quick rough one of the Opposition/Liberal/Reformist 3-Party coalition compared to PiS and their intended partner of Konfederacja, if the two got a majority. There remain 35 precincts not yet tabulated, so the overall margin may widen. But the map shouldn't change cause they are either from abroad or from around Warsaw.



When looking at the results from just this two-block perspective, it is a margin close to 56-44 when removing the minor parties. That's fairly massive, but it is only really translated into the Senate landslide where the three tickets actually all are one. In the Sejm, divisions, wasted votes, and D'Hondt allocations make things a lot tighter than the topline.



And here's just a straight map of the Sejm constituencies won by the PO ticket and PiS.

[Pericles]

That's actually a pretty strong victory. And I do love how you can always see Imperial Germany on Polish election maps.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

the fact the government website has results going down like 3 levels of administrative divisions is really great. Definitely looking forward to the maps there (including seeing if any bottom-level divisions voted for the smaller parties, I remember looking in Opole and found one that voted for MN, but they're obviously more concentrated)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

That's actually a pretty strong victory. And I do love how you can always see Imperial Germany on Polish election maps.

I almost said something about that the other day, lol.

[Epaminondas]

Maps of the Senate
(snip)

Lovely maps, thanks. Have you a list of the the closest seats? There were quite a few nailbiters decided by <1000 votes in the Senate.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

9 polling stations left.

2 in Warsaw
1 in Constituency 20 (surrounding Warsaw)

6 abroad
 2 in the UK
 1 in France
 3 in Germany

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

99.97% reporting (+/- compared to 99.72% in)

PiS: 35.39% (-0.13%)
KO: 30.69% (+0.10%)
TD: 14.40% (-0.02%)
Lewica: 8.61% (+0.04%)
Kon: 7.16% (+0.01%)
BS: 1.86% (+/- 0.00%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.12% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

[windjammer]

It wasn't even close lol