Polish Politics and Elections

[Epaminondas]

Counting has slowed to a trickle, I imagine poll workers are wrapping up for the night.

So tomorrow will be the day of fabulous maps splashed with orange and green.

[windjammer]

I'm relieved they have finally Lost.

They were too much annoying

[Epaminondas]

Some of my great-grandparents came to the United States from Bialystok, back when it was a heavily Jewish city at the western fringe of the Russian Empire. Nice to see a net opposition gain here.

Białystok is now a mandatory layover for all trains from the Baltics to the rest of Europe, and there does seem to be some developing nature tourism in the area (went barge-pushing nearby a few years ago)

[Epaminondas]

PO have passed 30%, and it now looks like PiS could fall below 36.
Beautiful.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 14 (Nowy Sącz) fully reported
PiS - 53.73% (-12.07) 229,587
KO - 16.10% (+2.27) 68,804
Third Way - 11.58% (+4.23) 49,487
Konfederacja - 8.73% (+1.78) 37,301
Left 3.18% (-2.89) 13,594

Seats
PiS - 6 (-2)
KO - 2 (+1)
Third Way - 1
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
Left - 0 (-1)


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/14

[Epaminondas]

Consituency no. 14 (Nowy Sącz) fully reported
PiS - 53.73% (-12.07) 229,587
KO - 16.10% (+2.27) 68,804
Third Way - 11.58% (+4.23) 49,487

Seats
PiS - 6 (-2)
KO - 2 (+1)
Third Way - 1

Curious result for KO: 16% of the vote, but 20% of the seats. How can that happen in D'Hondt.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

94.92% reporting (+/- compared to 82.91% in)

PiS: 36.13% (-0.65%)
KO: 30.02% (+0.66%)
TD: 14.44% (-0.04%)
Lewica: 8.44% (+0.10%)
Kon: 7.18% (-0.06%)
BS: 1.88% (+0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (-0.01%)
MN: 0.13% (-0.02%)
Others: 0.15% (+0.01%)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Warszawa still has 30% left to go.

42 KO
22 PiS
13 TD
13 Lewica
6 Kon
2 BS
1 PJJ

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Looks like Poznan just finished. I'm not sure how to count the seats on the official website but the vote totals are 44.09% PO, 19.57% PiS, 16.54% TD, 12.31% Lewica, 5.90% Konf.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 4 (Bydgoszcz) fully reported
KO - 35.01% (+3.96) 186,914
PiS - 30.45% (-5.98) 162,603
Third Way - 15.06% (+6.04) 80,246
Left - 9.92% (-5.25) 52,959
Konfederacja - 6.42% (-0.63) 34,266


Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1 (-1)
Konfederacja - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/21

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Consituency no. 4 (Bydgoszcz) fully reported
KO - 35.01% (+3.96) 186,914
PiS - 30.45% (-5.98) 162,603
Third Way - 15.06% (+6.04) 80,246
Left - 9.92% (-5.25) 52,959
Konfederacja - 6.42% (-0.63) 34,266


Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1 (-1)
Konfederacja - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/21

Is this the first one that's outright flipped, in terms of first party/list in the constituency?

[Duke of York]

Warszawa still has 30% left to go.

42 KO
22 PiS
13 TD
13 Lewica
6 Kon
2 BS
1 PJJ

I assume they have gained seats there and could probably get a few more?

[Logical]

Is this the first one that's outright flipped, in terms of first party/list in the constituency?

No, Opole and Walzbrych flipped earlier.

[Oryxslayer]

If anyone cares, i went through the Senate seats to see who is presently leading. The opposition alliance, which in the FPTP Senate is officially aligned to prevent vote loss, is leading in a whopping 62 or 63 of 100 seats right now. Some surprises include:

#13 Toruń III, aka the Southeast corner of the Voivodeship. Left leading by a lot in a Duda-won seat, clear spoiler effect from Confederation.

#18 Chełm II, previously a uber-safe PiS seat flipping to an Independent by 3%. There is no Opposition candidate, so the independent is anti-PiS right? If I am wrong, the total is 62, if right, 63.

#38 Płock I: currently a 60 vote PiS lead over Third Way.

#51 Opole I: 6% lead for PO in a seat lost by 10% for the Alliance's Left candidate left time. Suprising since this seat is seemingly captures all the PiS areas in Opole, to the point of a Duda win in 2020.

#60 Białystok II: The city and Belarus border. Giving a huge 12% margin to Third Way. Previously won by 7% for PiS.

Quoting this cause #38 is now a TD/Third Way lead of 538 votes.

[M0096]

Is this the first one that's outright flipped, in terms of first party/list in the constituency?

No, the first was 2nd (Wałbrzych) or 38th (Piła).

[President Johnson]

94.92% reporting (+/- compared to 82.91% in)

PiS: 36.13% (-0.65%)
KO: 30.02% (+0.66%)
TD: 14.44% (-0.04%)
Lewica: 8.44% (+0.10%)
Kon: 7.18% (-0.06%)
BS: 1.88% (+0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (-0.01%)
MN: 0.13% (-0.02%)
Others: 0.15% (+0.01%)

So the three opposition, pro-EU parties of the political center garnered more than 52% of the vote? That's awesome to see and should translate into a stable parliamentary majority.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Warszawa still has 30% left to go.

42 KO
22 PiS
13 TD
13 Lewica
6 Kon
2 BS
1 PJJ

I assume they have gained seats there and could probably get a few more?

TD looks to be the big winner here.

[Duke of York]

94.92% reporting (+/- compared to 82.91% in)

PiS: 36.13% (-0.65%)
KO: 30.02% (+0.66%)
TD: 14.44% (-0.04%)
Lewica: 8.44% (+0.10%)
Kon: 7.18% (-0.06%)
BS: 1.88% (+0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (-0.01%)
MN: 0.13% (-0.02%)
Others: 0.15% (+0.01%)

So the three opposition, pro-EU parties of the political center garnered more than 52% of the vote? That's awesome to see and should translate into a stable parliamentary majority.

If so that is a very impressive victory and a big defeat for the right in Europe.

[Duke of York]

Warszawa still has 30% left to go.

42 KO
22 PiS
13 TD
13 Lewica
6 Kon
2 BS
1 PJJ

I assume they have gained seats there and could probably get a few more?

TD looks to be the big winner here.

What party is TD? how are they the big winner in Warsaw?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Warszawa still has 30% left to go.

42 KO
22 PiS
13 TD
13 Lewica
6 Kon
2 BS
1 PJJ

I assume they have gained seats there and could probably get a few more?

TD looks to be the big winner here.

What party is TD? how are they the big winner in Warsaw?

TD is an alliance between an agrarian centrist party and a green party, and it's doing well this election in general. I imagine the green component is popular in Warsaw for similar reasons to the "teal independents" in the Australian election last year. It's the big winner relative to how its component parties did in 2019; obviously PO is winning Warsaw overall, but its vote total hasn't changed much, whereas there's been a major shift from PiS to TD.

There's also a Warsaw-II constituency consisting of the capital's hinterlands where it looks like there's a more straightforward PiS->PO shift going on.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 39 (Poznan) fully reported
KO - 44.09% (-1.29) 262,729
PiS - 19.57% (-5.76) 116,666
Third Way - 16.54% (+10.34) 98,589
Left - 12.31% (-4.18) 73,345
Konfederacja - 5.90% (-0.71) 35,182


Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 2 (-1)
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1 (-1)
Konfederacja - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/39

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Warszawa still has 30% left to go.

42 KO
22 PiS
13 TD
13 Lewica
6 Kon
2 BS
1 PJJ

I assume they have gained seats there and could probably get a few more?

TD looks to be the big winner here.

What party is TD? how are they the big winner in Warsaw?

Agrarian opposition. Warsaw isn't the sort of place I expect for them to do well

[Epaminondas]

In Poznan PO has further increased their lead in seats while losing votes.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 6 (Lublin) fully reported
PiS - 45.48% (-9.91) 294,847
KO - 20.32% (+1.02) 131,712
Third Way - 15.87% (+6.77) 102,894
Konfederacja - 8.38% (+1.31) 54,325
Left 5.72% (-2.09) 37,083


Seats
PiS - 8 (-1)
KO - 3
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Konfederacja - 1
Left - 1


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/6

[Epaminondas]

The next dump should bring the total votes above the 2020 presidential election total (20.6M), itself a record at the time.