2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Umengus]

I am going to guess that If the democrats have at least a 20% lead in early-in person/mail votes in Florida once it totals over 5 million, they'll likely be able to win the state. It would be unimaginable to think that republicans can catch up with the other half of the vote on election day. There's over 5.5 million votes out too so it is possible we will get there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

not so unimaginable in the actual situation.

[Skill and Chance]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

Wisconsin too.

What the heck is going on in South Dakota?  There's nothing competitive anywhere on the ballot from president to state legislature. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

up to 6.6 millions votes!

[Non Swing Voter]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

Wisconsin too.

What the heck is going on in South Dakota?  There's nothing competitive anywhere on the ballot from president to state legislature. 

someone said it's due to both a gambling and weed ballot initiative.

[neostassenite31]

Next MN update is due tomorrow

[republican1993]

I am going to guess that If the democrats have at least a 20% lead in early-in person/mail votes in Florida once it totals over 5 million, they'll likely be able to win the state. It would be unimaginable to think that republicans can catch up with the other half of the vote on election day. There's over 5.5 million votes out too so it is possible we will get there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

so pretty much they have a 50/50 shot at this moment? i see the % going up slowly per day since republicans will be trickling in more votes the closer election day comes vs democrats eager to vote ASAP

[kph14]

Another huge update from Michigan:

824,525 returned (up 187,737 from yesterday)

17.2% of total 2016 turnout

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MI.html

[Gass3268]

The longest we'll have to wait for absentees to be counted in Wisconsin will be Milwaukee, but they are still expecting results that night/early morning.

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1314255979022868482?s=20

[Splash]

Another huge update from Michigan:

824,525 returned (up 187,737 from yesterday)

17.2% of total 2016 turnout

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MI.html

Impressive. The statewide return rate is 29.9% with this update. Oakland County is lagging behind at 24.9%, but I think most of that difference is a function of township and city clerks in the county sending out absentee ballots somewhat late.

I am heartened to see Wayne County is still generally keeping pace with the rest of the state (27.3% return rate); I would be interested to see how Detroit is doing specifically but I can't find anything online and the city clerk's website is useless.

No concerns so far with what I am seeing in the other Dem strongholds. Voters in Ingham, Kalamazoo, Washtenaw, etc. all seem to be returning their ballots at a brisk pace.

Of the counties that voted for Whitmer in 2018, there is currently an average return rate of 33.5% but this I didn't the time to weight the returns so that's not going to be a useful metric; maybe I'll create a spreadsheet to track all of this and weight the returns properly over the weekend.

[Rep Jessica]

Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
17m
The early voting blog is updated!

Dems have gained 3,000 on their voter registration lead over the GOP in Clark County since mid-September. They are gaining hundreds every day now.

Also, a look at key Assembly races.

[Gass3268]

Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
17m
The early voting blog is updated!

Dems have gained 3,000 on their voter registration lead over the GOP in Clark County since mid-September. They are gaining hundreds every day now.

Also, a look at key Assembly races.

The Machine has awakened!

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1314333732522913793

Dem enthusiasm high. 

[Minnesota Mike]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

Look for MN to about double when the next report comes in tomorrow.  As of today the city of Minneapolis has a little over 63,000 votes cast or about 28.9% of the vote cast in 2016.
 
https://vote.minneapolismn.gov/results-data/turnout/2020-general-early-voting-dashboard/

[Non Swing Voter]

Early voting options are really making it hard for Republicans to suppress the vote this time.

[Roblox]

Just had my registration application approved in Virginia, I'm planning to vote in person this weekend.

[republican1993]

Just had my registration application approved in Virginia, I'm planning to vote in person this weekend.

Biden or Trump?

[Roblox]

Just had my registration application approved in Virginia, I'm planning to vote in person this weekend.

Biden or Trump?

Biden.

[republican1993]

boooo glad ur expressing ur duty to vote i am casting my vote this weekend too by mail for Trump (i think)

[Rep Jessica]

Early voting options are really making it hard for Republicans to suppress the vote this time.

Voting should be by mail in every state. I am a conservative but I believe everyone should have a right to vote and it should be easy!

[libertpaulian]

Early voting options are really making it hard for Republicans to suppress the vote this time.

Voting should be by mail in every state. I am a conservative but I believe everyone should have a right to vote and it should be easy!

I think it would work in most states, but VBM in high population center states like CA, NY, IL, etc. would be catastrophic in close elections.

[Thomas D]

The longest we'll have to wait for absentees to be counted in Wisconsin will be Milwaukee, but they are still expecting results that night/early morning.

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1314255979022868482?s=20

So does this mean Dems shouldn't be worried if Trump is up by 20,000 votes at midnight on election night?

[Gass3268]

The longest we'll have to wait for absentees to be counted in Wisconsin will be Milwaukee, but they are still expecting results that night/early morning.

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1314255979022868482?s=20

So does this mean Dems shouldn't be worried if Trump is up by 20,000 votes at midnight on election night?

I think so. This is similar to what happened in the 2018 Gubernatorial Race, but that was unintentional.

[Stuart98]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

Wisconsin too.

What the heck is going on in South Dakota?  There's nothing competitive anywhere on the ballot from president to state legislature. 

someone said it's due to both a gambling and weed ballot initiative.

Wonder if that will help Biden and Ahlers do a bit better than expected.

[wbrocks67]

Early voting options are really making it hard for Republicans to suppress the vote this time.

I'm really really happy that PA in particular not only implemented vote by mail but basically early voting as well this time around.

[Non Swing Voter]

Early voting options are really making it hard for Republicans to suppress the vote this time.

I'm really really happy that PA in particular not only implemented vote by mail but basically early voting as well this time around.

Wish they were better at reporting their numbers though...