Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[Storr]

The new Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2023 (US, states, Puerto Rico and components of change) will be released next Tuesday, December 19.

I predict population growth was about 1.7 to 1.9 million last year, slightly up from the year before, or 0.5% to 0.6% in relative terms.

Natural growth, which is more births than deaths, was around 500.000, and maybe an additional 1.2 to 1.4 million net legal immigrants. There were obviously many illegals too, but they are not estimated into the Census Bureau numbers.

Texas, Florida, Utah, Nevada, Idaho should be the fastest growing states with between 1.6 and 2%.

Texas and Florida alone should be up by 550.000 and 350.000 respectively.

"The nation gained more than 1.6 million people this past year, growing by 0.5% to 334,914,895."

"Texas experienced the largest numeric change in the nation, adding 473,453 people, followed by Florida, which added 365,205 residents."

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-trends-return-to-pre-pandemic-norms.html

Doing some quick math, if population continued to grow by 0.5% for the next 6 years, by the 2030 Census the US population would be 343.37 million.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I have hope that Rhode Island will defy expectations for a third time. Just wait and see.

[cinyc]

Census' 7/1/23 city estimates are out today. Some highlights of the 2022-23 changes:

-NYC lost 77K, Chicago 8.2K and L.A. 1.8K. This is bad, but not as bad as prior years this decade.
-Detroit gained a little population from 2022-23 for the first time since the 1950s.
-Jacksonville, FL leapfrogged over Austin, TX into 10th place.
-The top growing cities (numeric terms, >20K) were San Antonio and Fort Worth. Most of the rest of the Top 15, except DC, were in the Sun Belt.
-The top growing cities (% terms, >20K) were mainly Texas exurbs. You probably haven’t heard of most of them.

I have a map on my website detailing the changes here:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/pop-change/23-town-pop-change

[danny]

Last decade I noticed that the estimates gave the Hasidic towns much slower growth than what would make sense for such places, and the 2020 census corrected these estimates with much higher numbers.

Looks like the census estimates are mostly back to making the same mistakes: Lakewood and and New Square show minimal growth, and Bloomingburg shows a small decrease. The one exception is
kiryas Joel which shows very high growth, even higher than would be expected purely from high birth rates.