Census Population Estimates 2020-29
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #150 on: December 29, 2022, 02:06:02 AM »

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.
Is Baldwin County showing fast growth?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #151 on: December 29, 2022, 02:17:33 AM »

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.
Is Baldwin County showing fast growth?

Yes, but Mobile is shrinking pretty badly iirc
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #152 on: December 29, 2022, 04:25:33 AM »

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.
Is Baldwin County showing fast growth?

Yes, but Mobile is shrinking pretty badly iirc
I guess population trends in places like Birmingham must be rather healthy then. That feels like a necessary ingredient here.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #153 on: December 29, 2022, 01:58:22 PM »

In a few decades Idaho will have 4 or 5 seats and North Idaho will have enough population for a seat all to itself, without having to drop down into Boise. That's gonna give us some seriously fun primaries.

A 4-5 seat Idaho is probably at most a Lean R state given who's moving in.  That's interesting to think about. 

Anecdotal, but I know several people from Portland who lean right who moved to Idaho during the pandemic.
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« Reply #154 on: December 29, 2022, 02:00:35 PM »

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.



The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #155 on: December 29, 2022, 04:03:16 PM »

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.



The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #156 on: January 02, 2023, 12:43:51 AM »

This would obv be a massive upset, but is OR at risk of losing the 6th seat it gained from 2020?

Seems like Portland particularly has had slowed growth for a variety of reasons
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #157 on: January 02, 2023, 01:38:33 AM »

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.



The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.
One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #158 on: January 02, 2023, 01:48:26 AM »

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.



The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.
One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #159 on: January 02, 2023, 01:58:12 AM »

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.



The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.
One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.
A commission should be possible in Arkansas. But are enough people willing to sign a petition to get one to the ballot? The attempt back in 2020-2021 didn't really get enough support at that stage, so it never had a chance.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #160 on: January 02, 2023, 02:15:33 PM »

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.



The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.
One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.
A commission should be possible in Arkansas. But are enough people willing to sign a petition to get one to the ballot? The attempt back in 2020-2021 didn't really get enough support at that stage, so it never had a chance.

If Ds are smart, they'd prololy do it now since a redistricting commission wouldn't affect the topline composition of Congress and State Leg very much right now, but down the road it could if the 3rd becomes competative.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #161 on: January 02, 2023, 02:38:36 PM »

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.



The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.
One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.
A commission should be possible in Arkansas. But are enough people willing to sign a petition to get one to the ballot? The attempt back in 2020-2021 didn't really get enough support at that stage, so it never had a chance.

If Ds are smart, they'd prololy do it now since a redistricting commission wouldn't affect the topline composition of Congress and State Leg very much right now, but down the road it could if the 3rd becomes competative.
I don't disagree.
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Sol
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« Reply #162 on: January 02, 2023, 09:38:49 PM »

A more Democratic friendly commission could also draw a Pine Bluff-Little Rock district or combine both of those with the Delta.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #163 on: January 06, 2023, 07:22:23 PM »

A more Democratic friendly commission could also draw a Pine Bluff-Little Rock district or combine both of those with the Delta.

I think it depends upon whether race is a factor in the commission. From a racial standpoint, having a seat where blacks are at least competative in AR is possible and seems fair, but the Delta-PineBluff-Little Rock district isn't exactly natural and likely requires splitting greater Little Rock along racial lines.

The Delta is also getting a lot whiter and redder very fast, so that seat might not even be sustainable anyways.
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Sol
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« Reply #164 on: January 06, 2023, 09:34:24 PM »

The Delta is also getting a lot whiter and redder very fast, so that seat might not even be sustainable anyways.

IMO there's kind of a oft-repeated idea that rural Black Belt areas are getting whiter--that may be true in some places, but the Arkansas Delta, at least as defined by wikipedia, got more Black and much less whiter between 2010 and 2020.
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🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱
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« Reply #165 on: January 08, 2023, 01:24:46 AM »

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #166 on: January 08, 2023, 01:24:38 PM »

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

State pride?

In all seriousness, maybe the states have larger access to housing info than the census or smtg
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« Reply #167 on: January 08, 2023, 02:30:44 PM »

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

Both of the state departments are very big on domestic migration, assuming more Americans moved into those two states than people moving out. I'm more inclined to trust the Census Bureau data though since they base it on official IRS data and numbers from the US Postal Service also suggest that domestic migration in the Pacific Northwest took a big hit over the last two years.
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walleye26
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« Reply #168 on: January 14, 2023, 10:47:40 PM »

Yeah, I was going to ask about that too. The Wisconsin Department of Administration said that we have gained 53,000 residents, but the census shows a lot different numbers.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #169 on: January 15, 2023, 12:00:24 AM »
« Edited: January 15, 2023, 12:09:03 AM by Zaybay »

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

Yeah, I was going to ask about that too. The Wisconsin Department of Administration said that we have gained 53,000 residents, but the census shows a lot different numbers.

Both the 2022 census bureau numbers as well as the figures provided by the states are only estimates. They can very easily miss a lot of movement either through not including certain samples (its very difficult to track where international migrants move to), over relying on certain figures for estimates (such as using Social Security or Medicare registration as one of the key data points, which can easily make the estimates biased towards the movement of the elderly), or simple MOE. The real important tidbit to remember in all of this is to not take these figures as a sort of gospel.
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walleye26
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« Reply #170 on: January 15, 2023, 10:43:13 AM »

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

Yeah, I was going to ask about that too. The Wisconsin Department of Administration said that we have gained 53,000 residents, but the census shows a lot different numbers.

Both the 2022 census bureau numbers as well as the figures provided by the states are only estimates. They can very easily miss a lot of movement either through not including certain samples (its very difficult to track where international migrants move to), over relying on certain figures for estimates (such as using Social Security or Medicare registration as one of the key data points, which can easily make the estimates biased towards the movement of the elderly), or simple MOE. The real important tidbit to remember in all of this is to not take these figures as a sort of gospel.

Yeah, that makes sense. The 2020 numbers in WI showed that the census estimates very much underestimated Dane’s growth, and they projected rural WI to lose more than it did. However, I would guess the 2020 northern WI numbers were a lot to do with elderly folks moving out of cities as a result of Covid. Personally, my methods are 1) tracking development, such as number of housing units built, and 2) tracking number of votes in elections. Obviously those are imperfect, but when I can see a county consistently getting fewer votes cycle after cycle, I know it’s population has to be dropping. But turnout trends can mess that up.
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« Reply #171 on: March 04, 2023, 02:27:32 PM »

March 30, 2022 is the most likely release date of the 2022 County-Level Vintage Population Estimates
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Bismarck
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« Reply #172 on: March 25, 2023, 05:59:53 PM »

Does anyone know a way to see demographic breakdowns by age or race? I’d be curious to see income and race by age, and race by income for different geographies. There used to be the demographic statistical atlas website but they seem to have stopped updating that.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #173 on: March 30, 2023, 10:45:56 AM »

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2023/comm/percent-change-in-county-population.html

Some western states, the southern Atlantic coast area, and the Texas triangle are the three areas still having good growth,  everything else is either close to stagnant or declining.

Surprising to see all NH counties have grown in population last year.
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« Reply #174 on: March 30, 2023, 03:58:42 PM »

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2023/comm/percent-change-in-county-population.html

Some western states, the southern Atlantic coast area, and the Texas triangle are the three areas still having good growth,  everything else is either close to stagnant or declining.

Surprising to see all NH counties have grown in population last year.

What is going on in the Ozarks???

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