Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[cinyc]

This will serve as a thread to discuss the 2020-29 population estimates.

Census will release the July 1, 2020 County and other estimates on Tuesday, May 4. I'm expecting that they will not be using real 2020 Census as a base, but 2010 instead. It will be interesting to see how, if at all they handle the differences between those estimates and the real census results, especially in the Northeast.

[DINGO Joe]

US Births fall 4% in 2020 Down 142,00

Fell across every state, demo and age group.  Really can't blame it on the pandemic as only some December births could have been impacted.  When combined with a 530,000 increase in deaths, natural growth fell to 220,000 from 890,000 in 2019 and 1.5 million in 2010

In 2018, four states had more deaths than births WV, VT, NH and ME.  The map for 2020 looks like this

Blue=more deaths than births

Births

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr012-508.pdf

Deaths

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[Skill and Chance]

US Births fall 4% in 2020 Down 142,00

Fell across every state, demo and age group.  Really can't blame it on the pandemic as only some December births could have been impacted.  When combined with a 530,000 increase in deaths, natural growth fell to 220,000 from 890,000 in 2019 and 1.5 million in 2010

In 2018, four states had more deaths than births WV, VT, NH and ME.  The map for 2020 looks like this

Blue=more deaths than births

Births

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr012-508.pdf

Deaths

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Wow, from 4 states to that map in 2 years is depressing.

[Tender Branson]

WV had 17.000 births last year and 26.000 deaths ...

[DINGO Joe]

WV had 17.000 births last year and 26.000 deaths ...

Well, you're rounding things a bit far there, but they really weren't hit that hard by the COVID.  It's just the way their population pyramid is plus below average public health.

[Tender Branson]

I’m actually surprised NY had still more births than deaths ...

Also, AZ and OR having more deaths than births (but not by a lot).

AZ has a lot of old people and it seems a lot of Mexicans have fled the state in the past decade.

[DINGO Joe]

I’m actually surprised NY had still more births than deaths ...

Well, they still have immigrants to help keep the birth rate up some and as we all know, New Yorkers go that Great Elephant Graveyard (Florida) to die.   Which is why Florida can simultaneously be fast growing and upside down in natural growth.  That applies to other "retiree" states like AZ and SC too, it's just not as extreme.

[cinyc]

As expected, the July 1, 2020 county population estimates came out yesterday. Here's a map of the 7/1/19-7/1/20 county percentage population change:




As expected, the estimates used 2010 Census as base, not 2020, meaning NY's count is "only" off by 800K+. Every NYC borough supposedly lost population year-over-year. Take that with a huge grain of salt.

[Tender Branson]

Why is East TN so different to the rest of Appalachia ?

[Tender Branson]

As expected, the July 1, 2020 county population estimates came out yesterday. Here's a map of the 7/1/19-7/1/20 county percentage population change:

As expected, the estimates used 2010 Census as base, not 2020, meaning NY's count is "only" off by 800K+. Every NYC borough supposedly lost population year-over-year. Take that with a huge grain of salt.

The Vintage mid-2021 estimates are scheduled for release on a flow basis beginning in December 2021. This series will incorporate the results of the 2020 Census.

[Skill and Chance]

Why is East TN so different to the rest of Appalachia ?

Retirees mostly, also Knoxville gets some college+ yuppie influx. 

[DINGO Joe]

Why is East TN so different to the rest of Appalachia ?

Well, it's not different from WNC or NGA.  Coal mining really barely extended into TN.  Also I-81 is a major corridor.

[Sol]

Why is East TN so different to the rest of Appalachia ?

Well, it's not different from WNC or NGA.  Coal mining really barely extended into TN.  Also I-81 is a major corridor.

Shenandoah Valley is similar as well--all of these areas are near to big metro areas so they're the logical place for summer houses and tourists, and they never were industrial.

[DINGO Joe]

Why is East TN so different to the rest of Appalachia ?

Retirees mostly, also Knoxville gets some college+ yuppie influx. 

Let's not forgot that wonderous mecca--Dollywood

[cinyc]

Here's the 2010EB-2020 Map:



Note I've used the April 1, 2010 estimates base instead of actual census as base, which accounts for annexations and the like (a bigger deal at the muni level than county level, usually).

Suffolk County, NY is in the top 11 of raw pop losers according to these estimates. It might provide the key for figuring out why the 2020 state estimates were such a miss for NY. If it actually gained a lot more, especially on the East End (Hamptons and environs), there might be something to the double counting theory. If it actually lost pop while Queens (which also supposedly lost pop, albeit at a lower rate) gained big, the downward revising of international migration figures theory fits better.

We'll have to wait until August to see.

[cinyc]

Interactive versions of these maps here:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/2020-county-estimates

[jimrtex]

These are the Rhode Island estimated components of change. Where did the extra people come from?

Year	Net	Births	Deaths	Net	International	Domestic	Migration
2010	1024	2871	2330	-37	1704	-1171	533
2011	-165	10998	9755	-112	4585	-6005	-1420
2012	1064	11006	9315	-103	4507	-5087	-580
2013	667	10873	9631	-139	3938	-4474	-536
2014	951	10726	9697	-166	3607	-3574	33
2015	375	10874	10077	-184	4654	-5027	-373
2016	930	10975	9828	-240	4242	-4436	-194
2017	-1262	10577	10043	-205	2282	-4048	-1766
2018	2784	10737	10039	-179	4631	-2522	2109
2019	-1180	10459	9996	-196	1295	-2950	-1655
2020	-1033	10447	10470	-248	1193	-2234	-1041

[Biden his time]

As expected, the July 1, 2020 county population estimates came out yesterday. Here's a map of the 7/1/19-7/1/20 county percentage population change:



As expected, the estimates used 2010 Census as base, not 2020, meaning NY's count is "only" off by 800K+. Every NYC borough supposedly lost population year-over-year. Take that with a huge grain of salt.

As always, excellent informative map, great work cinyc!


Here is some more data (in numerical form) I think you all might find interesting.

Color Scheme

Gold - South
Red - West
Green - Midwest
Blue - Northeast

Top Twenty Counties in terms of % population growth rate (2019 - 2020)

• Yakutat City and Borough, AK (+10.59%) (+61 people)
• Loving County, TX (+9.70%) (+16 people)
• Borden County, TX (+7.62%) (+50 people)
• Daggett County, UT (+6.43%) (+62 people)
• King County, TX (+5.99%) (+16 people)
• Comal County, TX (+5.35%) (+8,377 people)
• St. Johns County, FL (+5.14%) (+13,647 people)
• Kaufman County, TX (+4.94%) (+6,739 people)
• Rockwall County, TX (+4.79%) (+5,026 people)
• Hays County, TX (+4.76%) (+10,965 people)
• Williamson County, TX (+4.40%) (+26,032 people)
• Jackson County, GA (+4.36%) (+3,184 people)
• Jasper County, SC (+4.27%) (+1,294 people)
• Adams County, ID (+4.27%) (+182 people)
• Chambers County, TX (+4.26%) (+1,864 people)
• Brunswick County, NC (+4.23%) (+6,052 people)
• Pinal County, AZ (+4.16%) (+19,188 people)
• Currituck County, NC (+4.07%) (+1,136 people)
• Sumter County, FL (+3.92%) (+5,246 people)
• Washington County, UT (+3.92%) (+6,975 people)

Bottom Twenty Counties in terms of % population growth rate (2019 - 2020)

• Yazoo County, MS (-9.15%) (-2,716 people)
• Issaquena County, MS (-7.84%) (-104 people)
• Terrell County, TX (-6.65%) (-50 people)
• Hampton County, SC (-6.54%) (-1,263 people)
• Bristol Bay Borough, AK (-6.19%) (-52 people)
• Lake and Peninsula Borough, AK (-5.69%) (-90 people)
• Ziebach County, SD (-5.18%) (-145 people)
• Alexander County, IL (-5.08%) (-294 people)
• Billings County, ND (-5.02%) (-47 people)
• Crowley County, CO (-4.89%) (-293 people)
• Lee County, AR (-4.23%) (-376 people)
• Chattahoochee County, GA (-4.00%) (-440 people)
• Bent County, CO (-3.98%) (-222 people)
• Mississippi County, MO (-3.91%) (-517 people)
• De Baca County, NM (-3.91%) (-68 people)
• McDowell County, WV (-3.89%) (-684 people)
• McPherson County, NE (-3.85%) (-19 people)
• Livingston County, MO (-3.80%) (-569 people)
• Hamilton County, KS (-3.58%) (-358 people)
• Briscoe County, TX (-3.57%) (-55 people)

Top Twenty Counties in terms of Numerical population growth (2019 - 2020)

• Maricopa County, AZ (+86,820 people) (+1.93%)
• Clark County, NV (+40,079 people) (+1.76%)
• Collin County, TX (+36,997 people) (+3.57%)
• Denton County, TX (+30,559 people) (+3.44%)
• Harris County, TX (+29,010 people) (+0.62%)
• Fort Bend County, TX (+26,969 people) (+3.32%)
• Travis County, TX (+26,936 people) (+2.12%)
• Williamson County, TX (+26,032 people) (+4.40%)
• King County, WA (+24,662 people) (+1.10%)
• Bexar County, TX (+24,378 people) (+1.22%)
• Riverside County, CA (+23,619 people) (+0.96%)
• Tarrant County, TX (+22,065 people) (+1.05%)
• Hillsborough County, FL (+21,526 people) (+1.46%)
• Polk County, FL (+19,585 people) (+2.70%)
• Wake County, NC (+19,476 people) (+1.75%)
• Pinal County, AZ (+19,188 people) (+4.16%)
• Montgomery County, TX (+18,768 people) (+3.09%)
• Lee County, FL (+18,499 people) (+2.40%)
• Pasco County, FL (+16,380 people) (+2.96%)
• Mecklenburg County, NC (+15,662 people) (+1.41%)

Bottom Twenty Counties in terms of Numerical population growth (2019 - 2020)

• Los Angeles County, CA (-68,556 people) (-0.68%)
• Cook County, IL (-37,042 people) (-0.72%)
• Queens County, NY (-28,121 people) (-1.25%)
• Kings County, NY (-23,395 people) (-0.91%)
• New York County, NY (-20,337 people) (-1.25%)
• Bronx County, NY (-17,045 people) (-1.20%)
• Santa Clara County, CA (-15,306 people) (-0.80%)
• San Francisco County, CA (-12,220 people) (-1.39%)
• Honolulu County, HI (-9,665 people) (-0.99%)
• Wayne County, MI (-9,470 people) (-0.54%)
• Baltimore City, MD (-8,470 people) (-1.42%)
• Cuyahoga County, OH (-7,691 people) (-0.62%)
• San Mateo County, CA (-6,502 people) (-0.85%)
• Alameda County, CA (-6,089 people) (-0.36%)
• Butte County, CA (-5,982 people) (-2.73%)
• Philadelphia County, PA (-5,952 people) (-0.38%)
• DuPage County, IL (-5,280 people) (-0.57%)
• Nassau County, NY (-4,739 people) (-0.35%)
• Allegheny County, PA (-4,358 people) (-0.36%)
• Suffolk County, MA (-4,333 people) (-0.54%)

[cinyc]

These are the Rhode Island estimated components of change. Where did the extra people come from?

Year	Net	Births	Deaths	Net	International	Domestic	Migration
2010	1024	2871	2330	-37	1704	-1171	533
2011	-165	10998	9755	-112	4585	-6005	-1420
2012	1064	11006	9315	-103	4507	-5087	-580
2013	667	10873	9631	-139	3938	-4474	-536
2014	951	10726	9697	-166	3607	-3574	33
2015	375	10874	10077	-184	4654	-5027	-373
2016	930	10975	9828	-240	4242	-4436	-194
2017	-1262	10577	10043	-205	2282	-4048	-1766
2018	2784	10737	10039	-179	4631	-2522	2109
2019	-1180	10459	9996	-196	1295	-2950	-1655
2020	-1033	10447	10470	-248	1193	-2234	-1041

New York COVID refugees? Or maybe they misestimated immigration from places like the Cape Verdes?

[jimrtex]

As expected, the July 1, 2020 county population estimates came out yesterday. Here's a map of the 7/1/19-7/1/20 county percentage population change:



As expected, the estimates used 2010 Census as base, not 2020, meaning NY's count is "only" off by 800K+. Every NYC borough supposedly lost population year-over-year. Take that with a huge grain of salt.

As always, excellent informative map, great work cinyc!


Here is some more data (in numerical form) I think you all might find interesting.

Color Scheme

Gold - South
Red - West
Green - Midwest
Blue - Northeast

Top Twenty Counties in terms of % population growth rate (2019 - 2020)

• Yakutat City and Borough, AK (+10.59%) (+61 people)
• Loving County, TX (+9.70%) (+16 people)

I remember a visit to Mentone the county seat. Many Texas counties have courthouse squares with parking on four streets around the courthouse. In Mentone, the courthouse square only had two sides. The highway along the front, and a dirt road along one side.

• Borden County, TX (+7.62%) (+50 people)

At the county seat in Gail, there is a hitching rail, though I think it is mostly ceremonial.

• Daggett County, UT (+6.43%) (+62 people)
• King County, TX (+5.99%) (+16 people)

There is a sweet picture from Guthrie CSD with the entire student body from PPK-12 on a staircase, and including the entire staff - teachers, secretary, principal, cooks, custodian, etc. The youngest children are on the ground with their sweet three-year-old smiles. The seniors at the top include some in their cheerleader uniforms. Guthrie is the HQ of the 6666 Ranch and is not related to the King Ranch.

• Comal County, TX (+5.35%) (+8,377 people)

Suburb NE of San Antonio, as Bexar is finally beginning to spill over.

• St. Johns County, FL (+5.14%) (+13,647 people)
• Kaufman County, TX (+4.94%) (+6,739 people)

Suburb east of Dallas, spillover - Dallas is slightly to the west of center.

• Rockwall County, TX (+4.79%) (+5,026 people)

Suburb (northeast) of Dallas, Spillover.

• Hays County, TX (+4.76%) (+10,965 people)

Suburb south of Austin.

• Williamson County, TX (+4.40%) (+26,032 people)

Suburb north of Austin.

• Jackson County, GA (+4.36%) (+3,184 people)
• Jasper County, SC (+4.27%) (+1,294 people)
• Adams County, ID (+4.27%) (+182 people)
• Chambers County, TX (+4.26%) (+1,864 people)

Exurb east of Houston. Growth is inhibited by Upper Galveston Bay which is in Chambers County, but Harris County includes the western shore.

• Brunswick County, NC (+4.23%) (+6,052 people)
• Pinal County, AZ (+4.16%) (+19,188 people)
• Currituck County, NC (+4.07%) (+1,136 people)
• Sumter County, FL (+3.92%) (+5,246 people)
• Washington County, UT (+3.92%) (+6,975 people)

Bottom Twenty Counties in terms of % population growth rate (2019 - 2020)

• Yazoo County, MS (-9.15%) (-2,716 people)
• Issaquena County, MS (-7.84%) (-104 people)
• Terrell County, TX (-6.65%) (-50 people)

At one time, railroad crew days were measured in miles. Sanderson is midway between San Antonio and El Paso. Crews would change in Sanderson and overnight there. Regulations in 1995 and eliminated this practice. I-10 through the Hill Country has bypassed US 90 for transcontinental travel, and even from Houston and San Antonio to Big Bend.

• Hampton County, SC (-6.54%) (-1,263 people)
• Bristol Bay Borough, AK (-6.19%) (-52 people)
• Lake and Peninsula Borough, AK (-5.69%) (-90 people)
• Ziebach County, SD (-5.18%) (-145 people)
• Alexander County, IL (-5.08%) (-294 people)
• Billings County, ND (-5.02%) (-47 people)
• Crowley County, CO (-4.89%) (-293 people)
• Lee County, AR (-4.23%) (-376 people)
• Chattahoochee County, GA (-4.00%) (-440 people)
• Bent County, CO (-3.98%) (-222 people)
• Mississippi County, MO (-3.91%) (-517 people)
• De Baca County, NM (-3.91%) (-68 people)
• McDowell County, WV (-3.89%) (-684 people)
• McPherson County, NE (-3.85%) (-19 people)
• Livingston County, MO (-3.80%) (-569 people)
• Hamilton County, KS (-3.58%) (-358 people)
• Briscoe County, TX (-3.57%) (-55 people)

Unknown. This is ranch country. I'd think that COVID-19 would show up in estimates due to decreased visits to Caprock Canyons.
[/list]

[cinyc]

The July 1, 2020 incorporated place estimates are scheduled to be released this Thursday. Like the county estimates, 2010 Census will be the base for these estimates.

[cinyc]

IMHO, I feel like we should have different threads for population estimates based on Census 2010 (2010 - 2020) and population estimates based on Census 2020 (2021 - 2029). Grouping in these 2020 estimates which are based on the 2010 census results with the future 2021  - 2029 census estimates (which will be based on the 2020 census results) doesn't sit well with me.

To be fair, we didn't know for sure whether the estimates would be based on 2010 or 2020 census when I posted this. Plus, the old thread says -19, as it should for a normal census year.

[cinyc]

Interactive maps of the July 1, 2020 population change estimates are here:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/05/31/2020-incorporated-place-and-remainder-population-change-map/

[Biden his time]

Interactive maps of the July 1, 2020 population change estimates are here:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/05/31/2020-incorporated-place-and-remainder-population-change-map/

Interesting map. Doral (which has gone from 45K to 65K people) stands out heavily from its neighbors in Western Miami-Dade, presumably due to increased immigration from Venezuela over the last few years. Hialeah was the Cuban hotspot of Miami-Dade (immigration from which has now slowed greatly) and it looks like Doral's gonna be the Venezuelan hotspot. I wonder how much longer it'll grow for.

Will you make another map after the final census results are released and the intercensal results come out? I think it'd be neat to compare.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

US Births fall 4% in 2020 Down 142,00

Fell across every state, demo and age group.  Really can't blame it on the pandemic as only some December births could have been impacted.  When combined with a 530,000 increase in deaths, natural growth fell to 220,000 from 890,000 in 2019 and 1.5 million in 2010

In 2018, four states had more deaths than births WV, VT, NH and ME.  The map for 2020 looks like this

Blue=more deaths than births

Births

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr012-508.pdf

Deaths

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Surprised IL is having more births than deaths despite population loss.