Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[Skill and Chance]

The year 2021 began with birth counts hitting record lows. January 2021 saw the United States' population contract by 96,000 people due to deaths outnumbering births, a record that still stands to this day. This is due to the month not only being the largest peak in COVID-19 deaths the United States saw, but also because it was nine months after March 2020, which was when COVID-19 and the panic surrounding it emerged and lockdowns were beginning to be put into place. To top it off, January is already typically the month with the lowest natural increase of any month due to seasonal birth / death patterns.

However, after the Spring of 2020, excess alarm over COVID-19 had largely subsided. This caused births over 2021 to recover in relation to their positions the previous year, and the latter half of 2021 more than made up for the loss seen in the year's first few months. The current preliminary count of total births in the United States stands at 3,654,930 for the year 2021, an increase of over 40,000 compared to the final 2020 number (3,611,086).

In fact, the Total Fertility Rate of the country in 2021 is likely to be placed at 1.65 to 1.66, much higher than predictions made mid-year. Whether the uptick is the beginning of a sustained trend upward or just a correction for the birth drop remains to be seen, but an uptick did happen.

Natural Increase in the calendar year 2021, though, remained lower than it was in 2020 (+229K in 2020 vs. +196K in 2021), because even though most of the year saw more births, death counts remained at an elevated state throughout 2021, with the beginning of the year peak, and then Delta and Omicron. However, nearly all the of the deficit between the two years comes in the first few months of 2021, and the COVID-19 waves coming later in the year have been less severe than those seen previously. Because of this, we can easily say that the Fiscal Year 2022 (with its population estimates) are almost certainly going to look better than they did in 2021 in regards to natural population growth.

Here are two graphs showing how natural growth and decline happened this last year:

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Of course, though, these changes did not occur evenly state-by-state. Some places fared better than others, as can be seen in these maps:

NATURAL INCREASE YEAR 2021

Each interval is 1 per thousand people, population figures coming from most recent Vintage Population estimates, green is positive and blue is negative.

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PERC. CHANGE IN BIRTHS 2020 - 21

Each interval is 1%, green is positive and blue is negative.

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Of course, I'll also continue the month-on-month maps I was making showing natural population growth and decline, as we've now received our Q4 2021 data. Here the maps are:

Each interval is 1 per thousand people (adjusted to annual numbers), population figures coming from most recent Vintage Population estimates, green is positive and blue is negative.

OCTOBER 2021 PRELIMINARY

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NOVEMBER 2021 PRELIMINARY

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DECEMBER 2021 PRELIMINARY

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Hmmm... is New England starting to have kids again?  Could be a blip, but interesting to follow.  Keep in mind Scandinavia now has some of the highest birthrates in Europe. 

[Biden his time]

May 2022 Land Border Encounters released

A new monthly record was made.
Here are the top ten countries by citizenship of those encountered:

273,309 Total

• 78,154 - Mexico
• 25,691 - Cuba
• 21,527 - Guatemala
• 19,701 - Honduras
• 19,591 - Colombia
• 18,998 - Nicaragua
• 10,673 - Haiti
• 9,026 - El Salvador
• 7,243 - Ukraine
• 6,507 - India

Slight month-on-month decline in border apprehensions by Mexicans (down 5K) as all border apprehensions rise (by 13K) leads to significant decline in Mexican proportion of apprehendees (from 31.8% to 28.6%).

Monthly levels of Cuban apprehendees drop significantly after recent "silent Mariel", down from 38.1K to 25.7K. However, these are still elevated numbers.

Number of Ukrainians intercepted at the border plummets from 21.2K to 7.2K as American protection for Ukrainians crossing the southern border without waiting in line for asylum expires.

Significant month-on-month jumps seen in Hondurans, Colombians, Nicaraguans, Indians, Venezuelans, and Russians reaching the border. The number of Haitians doubled since April.

[Biden his time]

The Total Fertility Rate of the United States rose from 1.64 in 2020 to 1.66 in 2021.

By Racial Grouping:

Non-Hispanic White: 1.55 to 1.60
Non-Hispanic Black: 1.71 to 1.68
Hispanic or Latino: 1.88 to 1.90


The share of Non-Hispanic White births also increased for the first time since 2014, from 51.0% to 51.5%.

[Biden his time]

June and July 2022 Land Border Encounters released

Slight decline as encounters fall from 275K in May to 248K in June then 239K in July
Still extremely elevated from the usual, as the two take #4 and #5 over the last few years.

Here are the top ten countries by citizenship of those encountered over the two months:

486,532 Total (Two months)

• 124,805 - Mexico
• 45,133 - Guatemala
• 44,760 - Honduras
• 36,944 - Cuba
• 31,170 - Venezuela
• 27,204 - Colombia
• 25,337 - Ukraine
• 23,389 - Nicaragua
• 17,235 - El Salvador
• 12,046 - India

Cuba falls in the rankings as the silent Mariel ends, Guatemala and Honduras surpass it.
Ukraine once again jumps as the stream of encounters stands at a steady 12K to 13K a month.
Encounters from Venezuela skyrocket from a steady 3K to 5K a month during the beginning of the year to 13K in June and 18K in July.
Haiti falls off the list

[Biden his time]

Talking legal immigration, the two indicators I've been tracking are steady going into the first two quarters of 2022.

This is what the picture for immigrant visas was looking like after Quarter 1 had ended:

Immigration Visas have stabilized, reaching pre-pandemic levels over the past few months.

Q2 2017: 148,115
Q3 2017: 123,435
Q4 2017: 128,382
Q1 2018: 142,280
Q2 2018: 135,191
Q3 2018: 127,704
Q4 2018: 116,095
Q1 2019: 111,885
Q2 2019: 116,495
Q3 2019: 117,131
Q4 2019: 116,078
Q1 2020: 105,177
Q2 2020: 3,785
Q3 2020: 25,406
Q4 2020: 30,058
Q1 2021: 46,762
Q2 2021: 88,977
Q3 2021: 132,950
Q4 2021: 110,289
Q1 2022: 116,536

Source: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html

This is all leaving out 76K Afghan refugees who were granted humanitarian parole and an estimated 100K Ukrainian refugees which the Biden administration plans to take in over the coming months.

Quarter 2 of 2022 has been the strongest quarter since 2018, with 133,312 visas.

April 2022 - 41,862
May 2022 - 42,096
June 2022 - 49,354 (highest monthly number since 2017!)

July of 2022 also posted a healthy 43,148.


Now next up looking through the Department of Homeland Security data. This was the situation as 2021 ended.

For a more detailed look at the numbers, you can see the DHS's Quarterly New Arrivals numbers (still excluding the Afghan and Ukrainian refugees):



A similar pattern appears here as it shows that as of Q4 2021, New Arrivals to the US had nearly reached those seen before the pandemic.

With six more months of data, this is what we have:

112,684 - Quarter 1
96,440 - Quarter 2

A weak Q2, which is somewhat concerning, but this balances out with the visa data forecasting a much stronger future. There's something of a lag between getting a visa issued and arriving in America, after all.

Regional patterns also shifted from the odd year of 2021 new arrivals. 2021 looked like this:

This also has a country-by-country breakdown, with the top ten countries for legal immigration new arrivals in the calendar year 2021 being:

315,724 Total

• (16.6%) 52,469 - Mexico
• (6.6%) 20,759 - Dominican Republic
• (6.5%) 20,381 - China
• (5.1%) 16,079 - The Philippines
• (3.2%) 10,082 - Vietnam
• (3.1%) 9,864 - El Salvador
• (2.9%) 9,100 - India
• (2.8%) 8,865 - Afghanistan
• (2.3%) 7,359 - Pakistan
• (1.8%) 5,816 - Bangladesh

And here's the breakdown by continent:

• (36.9%) 116,379 - Asia
• (36.1%) 113,811 - North America
• (11.8%) 37,184 - Africa
• (6.7%) 21,307 - South America
• (6.4%) 20,085 - Europe

While this is how the first half of 2022 is looking like:

315,724 Total

• (17.4%) 36,344 - Mexico
• (7.2%) 15,092 - China
• (6.3%) 13,163 - Dominican Republic
• (4.3%) 9,022 - El Salvador
• (3.9%) 8,194 - The Philippines
• (3.1%) 6,448 - India
• (2.4%) 4,950 - Guatemala
• (2.3%) 4,719 - Vietnam
• (2.1%) 4,448 - Ecuador
• (2.1%) 4,377 - Colombia

By continent:

• (39.1%) 81,832 - North America
• (32.6%) 68,242 - Asia
• (10.0%) 20,990 - Africa
• (8.5%) 17,681 - South America
• (6.9%) 14,369 - Europe

Surge towards Latin America (particularly Central America) and away from much of Asia (exc. China and India) are some of trends I'm picking up

[Kamala's side hoe]

Regional patterns also shifted from the odd year of 2021 new arrivals. 2021 looked like this:

This also has a country-by-country breakdown, with the top ten countries for legal immigration new arrivals in the calendar year 2021 being:

315,724 Total

• (16.6%) 52,469 - Mexico
• (6.6%) 20,759 - Dominican Republic
• (6.5%) 20,381 - China
• (5.1%) 16,079 - The Philippines
• (3.2%) 10,082 - Vietnam
• (3.1%) 9,864 - El Salvador
• (2.9%) 9,100 - India
• (2.8%) 8,865 - Afghanistan
• (2.3%) 7,359 - Pakistan
• (1.8%) 5,816 - Bangladesh

And here's the breakdown by continent:

• (36.9%) 116,379 - Asia
• (36.1%) 113,811 - North America
• (11.8%) 37,184 - Africa
• (6.7%) 21,307 - South America
• (6.4%) 20,085 - Europe

While this is how the first half of 2022 is looking like:

315,724 Total

• (17.4%) 36,344 - Mexico
• (7.2%) 15,092 - China
• (6.3%) 13,163 - Dominican Republic
• (4.3%) 9,022 - El Salvador
• (3.9%) 8,194 - The Philippines
• (3.1%) 6,448 - India
• (2.4%) 4,950 - Guatemala
• (2.3%) 4,719 - Vietnam
• (2.1%) 4,448 - Ecuador
• (2.1%) 4,377 - Colombia

By continent:

• (39.1%) 81,832 - North America
• (32.6%) 68,242 - Asia
• (10.0%) 20,990 - Africa
• (8.5%) 17,681 - South America
• (6.9%) 14,369 - Europe

Surge towards Latin America (particularly Central America) and away from much of Asia (exc. China and India) are some of trends I'm picking up

Vietnam and the Philippines seem on-par with 2021 numbers so far, while China and India are matching the surge from Spanish-speaking Latin America.

[walleye26]

Wisconsin’s Department of Administration released their population estimates from 2020-June 2022. It states that Wisconsin added 53,700 people from The 2020 census to now. That seems a bit high, but if we are gaining people from Chicago (which it looks like Kenosha, Walworth, and Waukesha are adding people) that might be the case. Of the 53,700 new Wisconsinites, top gainers are:

Dane +20,661
Brown +4,420
Waukesha +3,791
St Croix +2,733
Calumet +2,555
Eau Claire +2,309
Outagamie +2,233
Washington + 1,468
LaCrosse +1,342
Rock +1,272


Biggest Losers in Population were the following
Milwaukee -1,574
Grant -767
Dodge -574
(All other population losses were under 100 people, with Ashland being the next at -90).

The state DOA says 12 counties lost population, but most of them were marginal (less than 100 people)
Of the 60 counties that gained population, 21 had a gain of less than 100 people.

Full results here: https://doa.wi.gov/DIR/Prelim_Est_Co_2022.pdf

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wisconsin’s Department of Administration released their population estimates from 2020-June 2022. It states that Wisconsin added 53,700 people from The 2020 census to now. That seems a bit high, but if we are gaining people from Chicago (which it looks like Kenosha, Walworth, and Waukesha are adding people) that might be the case. Of the 53,700 new Wisconsinites, top gainers are:

Dane +20,661
Brown +4,420
Waukesha +3,791
St Croix +2,733
Calumet +2,555
Eau Claire +2,309
Outagamie +2,233
Washington + 1,468
LaCrosse +1,342
Rock +1,272


Biggest Losers in Population were the following
Milwaukee -1,574
Grant -767
Dodge -574
(All other population losses were under 100 people, with Ashland being the next at -90).

The state DOA says 12 counties lost population, but most of them were marginal (less than 100 people)
Of the 60 counties that gained population, 21 had a gain of less than 100 people.

Full results here: https://doa.wi.gov/DIR/Prelim_Est_Co_2022.pdf

Dane is really the MVP for Dems in WI. Extremely blue for a city of its size, high turnout, and the fastest growing part of the state and has been able to overcome a lot of brutal shifts for Dems. Will it be enough going forwards? We’ll see.

[Biden his time]

Prelude to the FY 2022 numbers that will be released in December

-AN EARLIER POST COVERING ONLY THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS OF THE 2021 FISCAL YEAR-
-ARCHIVED HERE-

-THIS HAS BEEN DELETED NOW AS THE DATA FOR THE WHOLE YEAR HAS BEEN MADE AVAILABLE-

Of course, the interesting part of looking through these statistics are the up-to-date monthly data they provide. Moving data up to June 2022 had already been released in July*, even though Official 2022 Population and Migration statistics per county aren't going to be released until the Summer of next year. So I've mapped out some statistics showcasing how domestic migration has evolved over Fiscal Year 2022, and comparing them to Fiscal Year 2021 and Fiscal Year 2019 (before the COVID-19 pandemic).

*As for today, November 05, moving data up to September is available (possibly October too but I haven't checked in about a week, it doesn't matter anyway)

Change from FY 2021 to FY 2022

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Listing Extremes:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Top ZIP Code Prefixes

+74,502 Moves — Prefixes 100, 101, 102 — Manhattan, NY
+35,289 Moves — Prefix 112 — Brooklyn, NY
+32,612 Moves — Prefix 941 — San Francisco, CA
+28,189 Moves — Prefixes 900, 901 — Los Angeles, CA
+23,326 Moves — Prefixes 606, 607, 608 — Chicago, IL
+18,444 Moves — Prefixes 021, 022 — Boston, MA
+15,961 Moves — Prefix 200 — Washington, D.C.
+13,180 Moves — Prefix 940 — San Mateo County, CA
+13,093 Moves — Prefix 104 — The Bronx, NY
+11,732 Moves — Prefixes 770, 772 — Houston, TX
+10,076 Moves — Prefix 981 — Seattle, WA
+9,963 Moves — Prefix 328 — Orlando, FL
+9,697 Moves — Prefix 111 — Northwest Queens, NY
+7,977 Moves — Prefix 113 — Flushing, Queens, NY
+7,913 Moves — Prefix 946 — Oakland, CA
+7,035 Moves — Prefix 191 — Philadelphia, PA
+6,567 Moves — Prefix 706 — Southwest Louisiana
+6,364 Moves — Prefix 330 — Homestead, FL; Hialeah, FL; Miami Gardens, FL; Miramar, FL
+5,578 Moves — Prefix 070 — Newark, NJ suburbs
+5,214 Moves — Prefixes 752, 753 — Dallas, TX
+5,178 Moves — Prefix 073 — Jersey City, NJ
+5,116 Moves — Prefix 951 — Southern Santa Clara County, CA

Bottom ZIP Code Prefixes

-9,505 Moves — Prefix 786 — Austin, TX suburbs
-9,251 Moves — Prefix 840 — Salt Lake City, UT suburbs
-8,963 Moves — Prefix 750 — Plano, TX
-8,646 Moves — Prefix 119 — Eastern Long Island in NY state
-8,017 Moves — Prefix 300 — N and E Atlanta, GA suburbs
-7,866 Moves — Prefix 973 — Salem, OR
-7,859 Moves — Prefix 926 — Irvine, CA
-7,853 Moves — Prefix 774 — Fort Bend County, TX
-7,161 Moves — Prefix 117 — Western Suffolk County, NY
-6,712 Moves — Prefix 836 — Boise, ID suburbs
-6,500 Moves — Prefix 852 — Mesa, AZ; Gilbert, AZ
-6,391 Moves — Prefix 925 — Riverside, CA
-6,146 Moves — Prefix 983 — Southern Seattle suburbs
-6,007 Moves — Prefix 275 — Raleigh, NC suburbs
-5,880 Moves — Prefix 891 — Las Vegas, NV
-5,730 Moves — Prefix 026 — East Cape Cod, MA
-5,446 Moves — Prefix 805 — Northern Boulder County, CO and Larimer County, CO
-5,330 Moves — Prefix 956 — Sacramento, CA suburbs
-5,153 Moves — Prefix 600 — Lake County, IL
-5,145 Moves — Prefix 028 — Rhode Island exc. Providence
-5,078 Moves — Prefix 953 — Modesto, CA
-5,020 Moves — Prefix 553 — Western Minneapolis, MN suburbs

Of course, the main thing that can be seen here is recoveries throughout many American cities which saw worsening losses from migration over 2020 and 2021. New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Washington, D.C., Houston, Seattle, Philadelphia as well as many, many more large cities saw much better domestic migration numbers in the first months of FY 2022 than they did in the first months of FY 2021.

The Bloomington metro area and its vicinity was another region that saw much more inflow this fiscal year, as did the resource-extraction areas of the Great Plains: Western North Dakota and the Midland-Odessa nexus straddling the Texas-New Mexico border. Southwest Louisiana saw large gains, too (due to Hurricane Laura having hit the region early that fiscal year).

On the other hand, many suburban areas that benefited off of urban areas emptying out saw large drops regarding domestic migration, such as Long Island and the suburbs of many Sun Belt cities: for example Austin, Atlanta, Nashville, Raleigh, Houston, Dallas, Seattle, and Los Angeles. The suburbs of Sacramento, Boston, and Minneapolis also notably joined this group, as did many other places.

Las Vegas, Portland, Boise, and Salt Lake City saw their gains cut down to size significantly, as even the city centers did not fare well here. The Midwest also saw losses, as did New England and much of the Western United States (excluding some large cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco).

Overall, most parts of the United States saw reversions to the mean in the first seven months of FY 2022 as compared to some extreme numbers seen in the previous year. Many rural areas that saw slowdowns in outmigration began to see the floodgates open once more, and many cities that suffered during COVID saw a much better year than did previously.


However, how has the pandemic affected the state of domestic migration in the United States overall? How does the first year in a largely post-COVID environment, FY 2022, compare to pre-COVID numbers, FY 2019? That's what the next map is for:

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Listing Extremes:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Top ZIP Code Prefixes

+24,396 Moves — Prefix 959 — Chico, CA; Marysville, CA
+12,230 Moves — Prefix 324 — Panama City, FL
+9,881 Moves — Prefix 328 — Orlando, FL
+6,836 Moves — Prefix 339 — Lee County, FL
+6,643 Moves — Prefix 773 — Montgomery County, TX
+6,596 Moves — Prefix 760 — Fort Worth, TX southern and western suburbs
+6,259 Moves — Prefix 285 — Kinston, NC
+5,947 Moves — Prefix 763 — Wichita County, TX
+5,443 Moves — Prefix 296 — Greenville, SC
+5,386 Moves — Prefix 762 — Denton County, TX
+5,373 Moves — Prefixes 100, 101, 102 — Manhattan, NY
+5,291 Moves — Prefix 284 — Wilmington, NC

Bottom ZIP Code Prefixes

-12,049 Moves — Prefix 852 — Mesa, AZ; Gilbert, AZ
-11,274 Moves — Prefix 972 — Portland, OR
-10,205 Moves — Prefix 981 — Seattle, WA
-10,101 Moves — Prefix 945 — Eastern Alameda County, CA and Contra Costa County, CA
-9,979 Moves — Prefixes 606, 607, 608 — Chicago, IL
-9,446 Moves — Prefix 891 — Las Vegas, NV
-9,283 Moves — Prefix 962 — Military Bases in South Korea
-8,791 Moves — Prefix 802 — Denver, CO
-7,679 Moves — Prefix 802 — Seattle, WA western and eastern suburbs
-7,448 Moves — Prefix 191 — Philadelphia, PA
-7,285 Moves — Prefix 958 — Sacramento, CA
-7,124 Moves — Prefix 850 — Phoenix, AZ
-6,167 Moves — Prefix 112 — Brooklyn, NY
-5,906 Moves — Prefix 112 — Austin, TX
-5,687 Moves — Prefix 554 — Minneapolis, MN
-5,599 Moves — Prefix 973 — Salem, OR
-5,358 Moves — Prefix 700 — New Orleans, LA suburbs
-5,276 Moves — Prefix 917 — Vicinity of Alhambra, CA in Los Angeles County
-5,076 Moves — Prefix 201 — Loudoun County, VA

So overall, this map paints a much more interesting picture of how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected migration patterns, directly comparing numbers of FY 2022 (outside the bounds of the large swings back and forth we saw during COVID), and FY 2019, which were completely before COVID

Let's start at the Western United States, which seems to have become much less attractive to prospective movers than it was before the pandemic. The Pacific Northwest, the San Francisco Bay Area, all of Southern California, as well as the Las Vegas metro area, the Denver metro area, and the Phoenix metro area are nearly universally seeing lower domestic migration than they did before the pandemic.

Perhaps this suggests that growth in the Pacific Northwest, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, previously some of the fastest-growing parts of the US, is bound to slow down, and California only will shrink ever-faster over the coming years (or at least in FY 2022). Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and New Mexico are breaking about even with their migration rates in FY 2019, as Montana and Hawaii somewhat improve.

Moving Eastwards, the Western part of North Dakota seems to be doing slightly worse than they did in FY 2019, as the oil boom there has passed long ago. However, the rest of the Great Plains seem to be doing fine, even the rural areas, and many parts of it are seeing gains, particularly the suburbs of Sioux Falls, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa.

Going down to Texas, the state as a whole is doing somewhat better than it did in FY 2019, but regional differences abound. The only parts of the state doing much worse than they did in FY 2019 are the McAllen metro area, the Austin metro area, and the previously-booming oil areas in Western Texas. Outside Austin, the Texas Triangle's growth only intensified in FY 2022 as compared to three years prior, as San Antonio, the North Houston suburbs (including Montgomery County), and the Western Dallas suburbs (with Denton County, Parker County, Wise County) standing out in particular for their gains. More rural parts of Texas also saw slight gains.

The Midwestern United States largely was stable in between FY 2019 and FY 2022, with many notable exceptions. The Twin Cities of Minnesota and Chicago both seem to have lost much of their luster since then (perhaps contributing to Minnesota growing slower than Wisconsin for the first time in years in FY 2021), while Northern Michigan and Northern Wisconsin are seeing much better numbers than they did a few years back, and an upwards trajectory makes itself visible across much of the rural Midwest as well.

The Southeastern US is also largely stable, with many exceptions. Memphis, TN, the New Orleans area and Louisiana, and the Atlanta metro area (exc. its Southern suburbs) all saw drops in migration between FY 2019 and FY 2022. On the other hand, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Georgia outside of Atlanta all do better, as does nearly the entire state of Florida (with the exception of the Tampa Bay Area's suburbs, Palm Beach County, and Central Miami).

Back up to the Mid-Atlantic, the Washington, D.C. metro area's suburbs in NoVA and Maryland all perform lower than they did in FY 2019. The Loudoun County area especially stands out, perhaps signalling an end to fast growth in that region. On the other hand, Delaware stands out as performing better.

Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Upstate New York all largely break even with their FY 2019 numbers, excluding a large drop in the city of Philadelphia. The New York City metro area faces, despite its wild swings, largely is performing worse than it did in FY 2019 (especially Brooklyn). Interestingly, though, Manhattan and the Bronx both buck this trend, with Manhattan being a top gainer of relative domestic migration growth (although it is still losing people). New England also seems to be doing significantly better than it did three years back, with the exception of Eastern Massachusetts.

[Skill and Chance]

The 2020 census was obviously out of whack because of COVID and I expect the Sunbelt will most likely get a big boost in 2030.  Could even something like TX+4/FL+3/AZ+2 be possible?   

[Biden his time]

I'm not gonna be making quarterly vital statistics updates anymore and splitting them up by month since it's pretty safe to say that the days of wild COVID fluctuations are over and numbers are now settling back into their usual patterns.

However, now vital statistics data for the full Fiscal Year 2022 (July 2021 to June 2022) has been released on the statewide level (and that will be used in the upcoming 2022 Vintage Population estimates), and more patterns continue to develop. For reference, this is what the situation looked like a year ago during FY 2021):

Here is the final map (green positive natural increase, blue negative natural increase):

FISCAL YEAR 2021 PRELIMINARY

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After a long, hectic twelve months with plenty of ups and downs, we get a natural increase of +147K.

3,577,000 Births
3,430,000 Deaths

-SNIP-

Repeating the same analysis in FY 2022, here is what we get:

FISCAL YEAR 2022 PRELIMINARY

(Green positive natural increase, Blue negative, each interval is 1 per 1,000 people)

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For Fiscal Year 2022 in the 50 states and the District of Columbia
We get a natural increase of +223K.

3,674,000 Births
3,451,000 Deaths


Here's the statewide list of natural increase per 1,000 people (so +1.000 is +0.1% population increase):

+6.904 Utah
+4.112 Texas
+3.953 Alaska
+3.489 District of Columbia
+2.982 North Dakota
+2.656 California
+2.372 Nebraska
+2.252 South Dakota
+2.185 Colorado
+2.027 New Jersey
+2.020 Minnesota
+1.894 Maryland
+1.808 Idaho
+1.704 New York
+1.692 Washington
+1.614 Hawaii
+1.470 Georgia
+1.158 Virginia
+0.801 Massachusetts
+0.674 UNITED STATES
+0.624 UNITED STATES inc. PUERTO RICO
+0.542 North Carolina
+0.453 Kansas
+0.372 Iowa
+0.220 Illinois
+0.104 Connecticut
+0.068 Nevada
+0.052 Indiana
+0.002 Louisiana
-0.183 Arizona
-0.444 Wisconsin
-0.661 Delaware
-0.673 Rhode Island
-0.865 Oklahoma
-1.044 Wyoming
-1.045 Missouri
-1.223 Tennessee
-1.320 Oregon
-1.338 Michigan
-1.473 South Carolina
-1.524 Arkansas
-1.652 Montana
-1.652 New Hampshire
-1.689 Ohio
-1.740 Pennsylvania
-1.750 Alabama
-1.774 Florida
-1.977 Kentucky
-2.037 Mississippi
-2.191 New Mexico
-2.808 Vermont
-4.316 Maine
-4.492 Puerto Rico
-7.204 West Virginia


Now let's do that again but with raw numbers:

+223,843 UNITED STATES
+209,183 UNITED STATES inc. PUERTO RICO
+121,406 Texas
+104,229 California
+33,799  New York
+23,045   Utah
+18,789   New Jersey
+15,872   Georgia
+13,093   Washington
+12,700   Colorado
+11,679   Maryland
+11,527   Minnesota
+10,004   Virginia
+5,716   North Carolina
+5,592   Massachusetts
+4,658     Nebraska
+3,437     Idaho
+2,896     Alaska
+2,789     Illinois
+2,338     District of Columbia
+2,326     Hawaii
+2,311     North Dakota
+2,016     South Dakota
+1,330     Kansas
+1,188     Iowa
+374       Connecticut
+352       Indiana
+213       Nevada
+10         Louisiana
-604         Wyoming
-663         Delaware
-737         Rhode Island
-1,329     Arizona
-1,813     Vermont
-1,824     Montana
-2,295     New Hampshire
-2,616    Wisconsin
-3,449     Oklahoma
-4,612     Arkansas
-4,635     New Mexico
-5,605    Oregon
-5,922     Maine
-6,009     Mississippi
-6,446     Missouri
-7,644    South Carolina
-8,528     Tennessee
-8,818     Alabama
-8,913    Kentucky
-12,845   West Virginia
-13,448   Michigan
-14,660   Puerto Rico
-19,893   Ohio
-22,562   Pennsylvania
-38,636   Florida


Two states went from posting natural decreases in FY 2021 to posting natural increases in FY 2022:

Indiana and Connecticut

[locked_out]

Great post! The pattern is very interesting here... I suppose average age is the strongest correlate? Seeing NY in the same category as SD is always unusual

[Biden his time]

Change in Natural Increase / Decrease from FY 2021 to FY 2022 measured in change in rate per 1,000 residents:

Blue states had a lower natural increase or higher natural decrease in FY 2022 than FY 2021
Green states had a higher natural increase or lower natural decrease in FY 2021 than FY 2022

Image Link

Intervals are 0.2 per 1,000 residents

Change in Natural Growth / Decline by state per thousand residents:

+1.140   South Dakota
+0.965   Texas
+0.953   California
+0.651   New Jersey
+0.610   Arizona
+0.544   Rhode Island
+0.506   Alabama
+0.504   Maryland
+0.409   South Carolina
+0.344   North Carolina
+0.303   Arkansas
+0.297   Mississippi
+0.263   Georgia
+0.260   North Dakota
+0.260   New York
+0.257   Connecticut
+0.233   District of Columbia
+0.230   UNITED STATES
+0.229   UNITED STATES inc. PUERTO RICO
+0.209   Iowa
+0.199   Florida
+0.172   Indiana
+0.164   Delaware
+0.153   Pennsylvania
+0.133   Tennessee
+0.089   Puerto Rico
+0.066   Massachusetts
+0.005   Kansas
-0.039    Nebraska
-0.006    Missouri
-0.065    Minnesota
-0.086    Oklahoma
-0.089    Illinois
-0.113    Michigan
-0.130    Wisconsin
-0.137    Ohio
-0.141    Virginia
-0.173    Louisiana
-0.272    Utah
-0.295    Nevada
-0.412    Montana
-0.479    Kentucky
-0.490    Colorado
-0.500    New Hampshire
-0.589    New Mexico
-0.590    Washington
-0.687    Vermont
-0.732    Hawaii
-0.775    Idaho
-0.865    Oregon
-0.981    Maine
-1.029    Wyoming
-1.472    West Virginia
-1.670    Alaska


In Raw Numbers:

+76,956   UNITED STATES inc. PUERTO RICO
+76,562   UNITED STATES
+36,889   California
+29,672   Texas
+6,011     New Jersey
+4,633     New York
+4,339     Arizona
+3,850     Florida
+3,650     North Carolina
+3,091     Maryland
+2,939     Georgia
+2,517     Alabama
+2,052     Pennsylvania
+1,990     South Carolina
+1,163     Indiana
+1,030     South Dakota
+924        Connecticut
+902        Mississippi
+889        Arkansas
+843        Tennessee
+667        Iowa
+598        Rhode Island
+422        Massachusetts
+394        Puerto Rico
+190        North Dakota
+154        Delaware
+86          District of Columbia
+13          Kansas
-50           Missouri
-72           Nebraska
-365         Oklahoma
-373         Minnesota
-433         Utah
-449         Vermont
-480         Montana
-593         Wyoming
-706         New Hampshire
-768         Wisconsin
-807         Louisiana
-913         Nevada
-1,088      Hawaii
-1,102      Michigan
-1,166      Illinois
-1,205      Virginia
-1,228      Alaska
-1,242      New Mexico
-1,314      Idaho
-1,379      Maine
-1,583      Ohio
-2,162      Kentucky
-2,563      West Virginia
-2,745      Colorado
-3,676      Oregon
-4,490      Washington

In the above data you can see which states contributed the most to the increase in natural growth in the United States from FY 2021 to FY 2022. California and Texas had much sharper rebounds than every other state, while the northwestern states, appalachian states, northern New England, Alaska, and Hawaii all saw significant declines in their natural growth. Washington state and Oregon led the way among this group as their natural change decreased by over 3,000 people each.

[Biden his time]

Image Link

Sad and sluggish numbers in New York state

[Biden his time]

December 22, 2022 is the most likely release date of the 2022 Vintage Population Estimates

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1605959620123447307


https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1605959697911119877

2nd seat Delaware if trends continue

[locked_out]

Do you know where these figures are available?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1605959620123447307


https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1605959697911119877

2nd seat Delaware if trends continue

Wow!

Idaho has already gained enough for a 3rd seat?!

Also, that projection would be a net shift of 11 districts (roughly equivalent to the entire population of Virginia!) and 11 EV from clearly D leaning states to clearly R leaning states in 2031.  D’s were extremely lucky the census happened when it did.  At this point, I will be surprised if there isn’t a Dem EC/PV advantage in 2028.

[Vern]

I’m glad to see NC on track to gain another seat!

[kwabbit]

Do you know where these figures are available?

2022 Vintage Estimates

[Biden his time]

DATA RELEASE


Between July 01, 2021 and July 01, 2022

+245,080 Natural Increase
+1,010,923 Net International Migration

From Census Day 2020 to July 01, 2022

+431,192 Natural Increase
+1,406,845 Net International Migration

Population 333,287,557
(up 0.38% since July 01, 2020)
(up 0.55% since Census 2020)

[Biden his time]

Notable: Huge surge in International Immigration towards the United States, reaching pre-COVID levels. Natural increase slightly rebounds as well to give the USA decent population growth.

Tennessee's population reaches 7 million, surpassing a shrinking Massachusetts to become the fifteenth-most populated state in the country.

Florida is the FASTEST-GROWING state by percentage and only second in raw growth to Texas. Nearly 450,000 people moved to Florida over the previous year, 125,000 internationally and 320,000 domestically

[Roll Roons]

Wow!

Idaho has already gained enough for a 3rd seat?!

There are few better places to live and raise a family than Ada County. It has very low rates of crime and poverty, friendly locals, a diverse, dynamic and recession-proof economy, a relatively low cost of living and plenty of opportunities for cultural activities and outdoor recreation.

In light of all this, its insane growth rate is not surprising.

And if you've ever been to Coeur d'Alene, it's real a contender for one of the most beautiful places in the US. Shame the far-right nutjobs kind of spoil it.

[Biden his time]

The Northeast and Midwest both shrank while the South and West both grew.

The South had natural change +70K and migration +1.28M
The West had natural change +150K and migration +3K
The Midwest had natural change -8K and migration -30K
The Northeast had natural change +30K and migration -250K

[Biden his time]

Image Link