Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[DINGO Joe]

From the CDC provisional death board, I dug out the infant deaths for 2020 and 2021.  The number of infant deaths fell 1300 in 2020.  From 20900 to 19600.  That corresponded to a decline in births of 140000.  The infant death number for 2021 is at 18935 and probably won't hit 19000, so that corresponds to a decline of about 50-70000 births in 2020.  It looks like deaths will end up about 60-70000 higher in 2021 vs 2020.  So natural growth looks to be 110000 to 140000 less than 2020.

[Biden his time]

UPDATE!

Birth and Death data has been released for the first quarter of FY 2022 (JUL - SEP '21)

978K Births, 862K Deaths, +116K Natural Increase

Here are the new graphs:

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The Delta Variant most assuredly took its toll, starting with the Interior South and Florida, but by September nearly every state got a piece of it, as can be seen from the Natural Population Growth/Decline Maps below (with each interval being 1 per thousand people, population figures coming from most recent Vintage Population estimates):

JULY 2021 PRELIMINARY

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AUGUST 2021 PRELIMINARY

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SEPTEMBER 2021 PRELIMINARY

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[Biden his time]

RECOVERY FROM THE PANDEMIC

PERCENT CHANGE IN BIRTHS Q3 2020 to Q3 2021

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THE PANDEMIC'S LONG-TERM EFFECT

PERCENT CHANGE IN BIRTHS Q3 2019 to Q3 2021

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Finishing up previously-made maps showing the fertility recovery from the Pandemic.
Interesting patterns abound.

[Biden his time]

Pasting this post here as well. Perhaps some of you all will find it interesting:

Of course, the interesting part of looking through these statistics are the up-to-date monthly data they provide. January 2022 moving data already has been released as of today, even though Official 2022 Population and Migration statistics per county aren't going to be released until the Summer of next year. So I've mapped out some statistics showcasing how domestic migration has evolved over the first seven months of Fiscal Year 2022, and comparing them to the first seven months of Fiscal Year 2021 and Fiscal Year 2019 (before the COVID-19 pandemic).

Change from FY 2021 to FY 2022
(first seven months)

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Listing Extremes:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Top ZIP Code Prefixes

+67,426 Moves — Prefixes 100, 101, 102 — Manhattan, NY
+28,712 Moves — Prefix 941 — San Francisco, CA
+26,452 Moves — Prefix 112 — Brooklyn, NY
+20,952 Moves — Prefixes 900, 901 — Los Angeles, CA
+15,681 Moves — Prefixes 606, 607, 608 — Chicago, IL
+14,981 Moves — Prefixes 021, 022 — Boston, MA
+13,648 Moves — Prefix 200 — Washington, D.C.
+10,046 Moves — Prefix 981 — Seattle, WA
+10,016 Moves — Prefix 940 — San Mateo County, CA
+8,780 Moves — Prefix 104 — The Bronx, NY
+8,588 Moves — Prefixes 770, 772 — Houston, TX
+8,401 Moves — Prefix 328 — Orlando, FL
+8,264 Moves — Prefix 339 — Lee County, FL
+7,833 Moves — Prefix 111 — Northwest Queens, NY
+7,458 Moves — Prefix 334 — Palm Beach County, FL
+7,373 Moves — Prefix 330 — Homestead, FL; Hialeah, FL; Miami Gardens, FL; Miramar, FL
+6,065 Moves — Prefix 342 — Sarasota, Manatee, and Charlotte Counties in FL
+5,920 Moves — Prefix 706 — Southwest Louisiana
+5,730 Moves — Prefixes 752, 753 — Dallas, TX
+5,357 Moves — Prefix 946 — Oakland, CA
+5,341 Moves — Prefix 341 — Collier County, FL
+5,275 Moves — Prefix 191 — Philadelphia, PA

Bottom ZIP Code Prefixes

-6,782 Moves — Prefix 119 — Eastern Long Island in NY state
-6,477 Moves — Prefix 117 — Western Suffolk County, NY
-6,295 Moves — Prefix 786 — Austin, TX suburbs
-6,129 Moves — Prefix 840 — Salt Lake City, UT suburbs
-6,114 Moves — Prefix 973 — Salem, OR
-5,262 Moves — Prefix 836 — Boise, ID suburbs
-5,204 Moves — Prefix 926 — Irvine, CA

Of course, the main thing that can be seen here is recoveries throughout many American cities which saw worsening losses from migration over 2020 and 2021. New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Washington, D.C., Boston, Seattle, Houston, as well as many, many more large cities saw much better domestic migration numbers in the first months of FY 2022 than they did in the first months of FY 2021. Nearly all of Florida saw gains from the FY 2021 numbers, as did Southwest Louisiana (due to Hurricane Laura having hit the region early that fiscal year).

On the other hand, many suburban areas that benefited off of urban areas emptying out saw large drops regarding domestic migration, such as Long Island, the suburbs of many Western cities. The Midwest also saw losses, as did New England and much of the Western United States (excluding some large cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco).

Overall, most parts of the United States saw reversions to the mean in the first seven months of FY 2022 as compared to some extreme numbers seen in the previous year. Many rural areas that saw slowdowns in outmigration began to see the floodgates open once more, and many cities that suffered during COVID saw a much better year than did previously.


However, how has the pandemic affected the state of domestic migration in the United States overall? How do these first few months of FY 2022 compare to pre-COVID numbers, the first few months of FY 2019? That's what the next map is for:

Change from FY 2019 to FY 2022
(first seven months)

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Listing Extremes:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Top ZIP Code Prefixes

+9,150 Moves — Prefix 324 — Panama City, FL
+8,402 Moves — Prefix 959 — Chico, CA; Marysville, CA
+5,741 Moves — Prefix 328 — Orlando, FL
+5,276 Moves — Prefix 773 — Montgomery County, TX

Bottom ZIP Code Prefixes

-8,115 Moves — Prefix 852 — Mesa, AZ; Gilbert, AZ
-7,389 Moves — Prefix 945 — Eastern Alameda County, CA and Contra Costa County, CA
-7,004 Moves — Prefixes 606, 607, 608 — Chicago, IL
-6,777 Moves — Prefix 972 — Portland, OR
-6,598 Moves — Prefix 802 — Denver, CO
-5,972 Moves — Prefix 891 — Las Vegas, NV
-5,611 Moves — Prefix 334 — Palm Beach County, FL
-5,051 Moves — Prefix 981 — Seattle, WA

So overall, this map paints a much more interesting picture of how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected migration patterns, directly comparing numbers in the first few months of FY 2022 (outside the bounds of the large swings back and forth we saw during COVID), and the first few months of FY 2019, which were even before COVID.

Let's start at the Western United States, which seems to have become much less attractive to prospective movers than it was before the pandemic. The Pacific Northwest, the San Francisco Bay Area, all of Southern California, as well as the Las Vegas metro area, the Denver metro area, and the Phoenix metro area are nearly universally seeing lower domestic migration than they did before the pandemic. Perhaps this suggests that growth in the Pacific Northwest, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, previously some of the fastest-growing parts of the US, is bound to slow down, and California only will shrink ever-faster over the coming years (or at least in FY 2022). Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and New Mexico are breaking about even with their migration rates in FY 2019, as Montana and Hawaii somewhat improve.

Moving Eastwards, the Western part of North Dakota seems to be doing even worse than they did in FY 2019, as the oil boom there has passed long ago. However, the rest of the Great Plains seem to be doing fine, particularly the suburbs of Sioux Falls, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa.

Going down to Texas, the state as a whole is doing somewhat better than it did in FY 2019, but regional differences abound. The only parts of the state doing much worse than they did in FY 2019 are the McAllen metro area and the previously-booming oil areas in Western Texas. The Texas Triangle's growth only intensified in FY 2022 as compared to three years prior, as San Antonio, the North Houston suburbs (including Montgomery County), and the Western Dallas suburbs (with Denton County, Parker County, Wise County) standing out in particular for their gains. The boom in Austin has mellowed somewhat, but it remains a strong gainer of residents.

The Midwestern United States largely was stable in between FY 2019 and FY 2022, with many notable exceptions. Metro Minneapolis and Chicago both seem to have lost much of their luster since then (perhaps contributing to Minnesota growing slower than Wisconsin for the first time in years in FY 2021), while Northern Michigan and Northern Wisconsin are seeing much better numbers than they did a few years back.

The Southeastern US is also largely stable, with many exceptions. Memphis, TN, the whole state of Louisiana, and the Atlanta metro area (exc. its Southern suburbs) all saw drops in migration between FY 2019 and FY 2022. On the other hand, the Carolinas and Tennessee do better, as does nearly the entire state of Florida (with the exception of the Tampa Bay Area's suburbs and Palm Beach County).

Back up to the Mid-Atlantic, the Washington, D.C. metro area's suburbs in NoVA and Maryland all perform lower than they did in FY 2019. The Loudoun County area especially stands out, perhaps signalling an end to fast growth in that region. On the other hand, Delaware stands out as performing better.

Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Upstate New York all largely break even with their FY 2019 numbers, excluding a large drop in the city of Philadelphia. The New York City metro area faces, despite its wild swings, largely is performing worse than it did in FY 2019. Interestingly, though, Manhattan and the Bronx both buck this trend. New England also seems to be doing significantly better than it did three years back, with the exception of Eastern Massachusetts.

[Biden his time]

Total Population and Components of Change Estimates for Counties, Puerto Rico Municipios, and Metropolitan/Micropolitan Statistical Areas are being made public on Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 10:00 AM Eastern Time.

What do you all expect?


I'm thinking Los Angeles County crashes below 10 Million.
NYC will also crash hard as Kings County falls below Miami-Dade

SF Bay will be another major loser

Miami-Dade and South Florida also shrink marginally, but that'll be more than made up for next year.

Duval County, FL (2020 Population 995,567) surpasses 1 Million residents.

Large growth in Upstate NY to reverse next year as NYC picks up to pre-COVID levels.

[Biden his time]

But Dallas County I doubt has lost population. The census estimates missed most cities in 2020, and they could being doing that again.

Dallas County was barely growing during the late 2010s (in fact it only grew by +0.01% in 2020), and then underperformed on the census by some 20K people. It isn't a huge surprise that it lost people (especially with remote work rising in COVID).


Duval County (Jacksonville, FL) population at 999,935. So close yet so far

[Biden his time]

DATA RELEASE


NEW YORK CITY POPULATION

Between July 01, 2020 and July 01, 2021

+29,572 Natural Increase
+12,695 Net International Migration
-342,449 Net Domestic Migration
-5,283 Residual

From Census Day 2020 to July 01, 2021

+38,564 Natural Increase
+12,952 Net International Migration
-383,105 Net Domestic Migration
-5,088 Residual

Population 8,467,513
(down 3.48% since July 01, 2020)
(down 3.82% since Census 2020)


2021 was a uniquely bad year for New York City, but it's likely to revert back to pre-COVID levels of population change soon (especially as international migration starts up again and people stop leaving the city en-masse)

That doesn't mean it's about to grow, but the declines over the coming years are probably going to be far more modest.

[DINGO Joe]

The overall increase in deaths for March 1st 2020 to the end of Feb 2022 will be 1.3 million for the 24 months of the pandemic

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[ProgressiveModerate]

DATA RELEASE


NEW YORK CITY POPULATION

Between July 01, 2020 and July 01, 2021

+29,572 Natural Increase
+12,695 Net International Migration
-342,449 Net Domestic Migration
-5,283 Residual

From Census Day 2020 to July 01, 2021

+38,564 Natural Increase
+12,952 Net International Migration
-383,105 Net Domestic Migration
-5,088 Residual

Population 8,467,513
(down 3.48% since July 01, 2020)
(down 3.82% since Census 2020)


2021 was a uniquely bad year for New York City, but it's likely to revert back to pre-COVID levels of population change soon (especially as international migration starts up again and people stop leaving the city en-masse)

That doesn't mean it's about to grow, but the declines over the coming years are probably going to be far more modest.

I swear you have something against NY(C). On the ground here there is still a lot of development suggesting more folks are moving here so colour me skeptical.

[Biden his time]

-SNIP-

I swear you have something against NY(C). On the ground here there is still a lot of development suggesting more folks are moving here so colour me skeptical.

I love New York City and would like to see it succeed.
It's very difficult to say that's what's happening, though.

Every single piece of data coming out of the city suggests its population contracted last year on an unprecedented scale (as did most urban areas nationwide, just see remote work). I explained further in this thread, and actual moving data can be seen in this thread.

By the way, you keep bringing up construction and development. So I gotta say, no matter what anecdotal evidence you have, New York state's actual building numbers are pitiful (as are most of the Northeast's and Midwest's). Some of the nation's lowest building rates per capita are happening in the state.

Just see the year 2021 how far down the country's fourth-largest state ranks in terms of the number of housing units that have been authorized:

• 261,951 - Texas
• 209,657 - Florida
• 117,291 - California
• 91,141 - North Carolina
• 65,766 - Arizona
• 65,167 - Georgia
• 60,123 - Colorado
• 57,068 - Tennessee
• 56,169 - Washington state
• 50,787 - Pennsylvania
• 49,125 - South Carolina
• 42,058 - New York state

The first two months of 2022 aren't looking much better:

• 43,533 - Texas
• 33,809 - Florida
• 17,231 - California
• 16,444 - North Carolina
• 11,885 - Georgia
• 10,980 - Arizona
• 9,076 - Colorado
• 8,917 - Tennessee
• 8,407 - Washington state
• 7,893 - South Carolina
• 6,898 - Utah
• 5,950 - New York state

[Biden his time]

The 2021 Vintage Population Estimates by county were released about a month ago, but no post was made here except the one about NYC.

Here is the map:


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The overarching theme is flight from urban areas across the country into the suburbs and desirable rural areas. This is largely due to the rise of remote work over the COVID-19 pandemic which caused many Americans to leave the cities, and also is compounded by the near-complete halt of international immigration (which had previously been a major source of population growth for many urban counties, especially Miami-Dade).

Los Angeles County lost 185K residents (-1.8% since Census 2020) as its population fell below 10 Million.
Cook County lost 102K residents (-1.9% since Census 2020).
Harris County lost 3K residents (-0.1% since Census 2020)
Maricopa County gained 76K residents (+1.7% since Census 2020), owing to its primarily suburban nature.

Kings County, NY watched its population drop below the also-shrinking Miami-Dade County, FL (now ranked #7 in the country).


Natural Increase also was in free-fall throughout FY 2021, as it reached a record low. This is the county breakdown of that statistic:


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Westchester County, NY and St. Louis County, MO both watched their populations drop below 1 Million

Duval County, FL, on the other hand, saw its population rise, but not quite enough to reach the mark, with a population of 999,935 on July 01, 2021 (an increase of 0.4% since the 2020 census).

New York County, NY (Manhattan) lost over 100K people as its population fell below Alameda County, Middlesex County, and Sacramento County.

San Francisco, CA lost over 50K people and saw its population drop below 10 counties.

[Biden his time]

Some more data you all may find interesting with commentary

Color Scheme

Gold - South
Red - West
Green - Midwest
Blue - Northeast

Top Ten Counties in terms of % population growth rate (2020 - 21)

• Kaufman County, TX (+7.34%) (+10,782 people) - (Dallas Eastern suburbs)
• Custer County, CO (+7.07%) (+333 people)
• Comal County, TX (+6.98%) (+11,413 people) - (Suburbs between San Antonio and Austin)
• Blaine County, NE (+6.96%) (+30 people)
• Rockwall County, TX (+6.68%) (+7,291 people) - (Dallas Eastern suburbs)
• Mineral County, CO (+6.57%) (+57 people)
• Mineral County, MT (+6.46%) (+295 people)
• Broadwater County, MT (+6.46%) (+442 people)
• Boise County, ID (+5.85%) (+447 people) - (Does not actually have Boise city)
• Liberty County, TX (+5.71%) (+5,270 people) - (Houston Eastern suburbs)

Bottom Ten Counties in terms of % population growth rate (2020 - 21)

• Loving County, TX (-14.93%) (-10 people) - (Smallest County in America gets smaller)
• Cameron Parish, LA (-9.59%) (-539 people) - (Hurricane Laura made landfall here)
• Skagway Municipality, AK (-8.64%) (-107 people)
• New York County, NY (-6.57%) (-110,958 people)
• Williams County, ND (-6.48%) (-2,665 people) - (Oil prices were very low in 2021)
• San Francisco County, CA (-6.30%) (-54,813 people)
• McKenzie County, ND (-6.27%) (-925 people) - (Another oil county in ND)
• Grant County, NE (-5.24%) (-32 people)
• Calcasieu Parish, LA (-5.14%) (-11,134 people) - (Lake Charles, LA - Devastated by Hurricane Laura)
• Jones County, SD (-4.97%) (-46 people)

Top Ten Counties in terms of Numerical population growth (2020 - 21)

• Maricopa County, AZ (+58,246 people) (+1.31%)
• Collin County, TX (+36,313 people) (+3.38%) - (Growth steady in northern suburbs of Dallas)
• Riverside County, CA (+35,631 people) (+1.47%) - (Growth accelerates due to flight from L.A.)
• Fort Bend County, TX (+29,895 people) (+3.61%) - (Accelerating growth in SW suburbs of Houston)
• Williamson County, TX (+27,760 people) (+4.51%) - (Accelerating growth in Northern suburbs of Austin)
• Denton County, TX (+27,747 people) (+3.04%) - (Northern suburbs of Ft. Worth, slight deceleration in growth)
• Polk County, FL (+24,287 people) (+3.33%) - (Accelerating growth between Tampa and Orlando)
• Montgomery County, TX (+23,948 people) (+3.83%) - (Accelerating growth in northern suburbs of Houston)
• Lee County, FL (+23,297 people) (+3.05%) - (Accelerating growth in SW FL retiree haven)
• Utah County, UT (+21,843 people) (+3.29%) - (Southern suburbs of Salt Lake City)

Bottom Twenty Counties in terms of Numerical population growth (2019 - 2020)

• Los Angeles County, CA (-159,621 people) (-1.60%) - (Population below 10M as domestic outmigration surges by over 50%)
• New York County, NY (-110,958 people) (-6.57%) - (Dometic outmigration QUADRUPLES!)
• Cook County, IL (-89,595 people) (-1.70%) - (Domestic outmigration surges by some 70%)
• Kings County, NY (-86,341 people) (-3.17%) - (Domestic outmigration more than doubles!)
• Queens County, NY (-64,648 people) (-2.70%) - (Domestic outmigration nearly doubles!)
• San Francisco County, CA (-54,813 people) (-6.30%) - (Domestic outmigration more than TRIPLES!)
• Santa Clara County, CA (-45,090 people) (-2.34%) - (Domestic outmigration surges by 75%)
• Bronx County, NY (-41,490 people) (-2.83%) - (Domestic outmigration surges by 60%)
• Alameda County, CA (-31,288 people) (-1.86%) - (Domestic outmigration more than doubles!)
• Miami-Dade County, FL (-29,682 people) (-1.10%) - (No surge in domestic outmigration due to desirability (domestic outmigration only increased 10%); population decrease mainly due to stop in international immigration; the resumption of international immigration in 2022 bodes well for a population rebound in the coming years)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro Dallas is gonna be huge both in terms of raw population but also size. I wonder if one day Kaufman County will be like Collin County.

Exurban growth is possibly one silver lining for the gop in Texas as a lot of it still nets R votes even if the % margin is refuced

I’m a bit hesitant to believe those nyc numbers though.

[Biden his time]

Although 2021 was record low for international immigration, as 2022 has progressed, more and more data has come out showing that this year is set to make records in the other direction.


Firstly, legal immigration:

Immigration Visas have stabilized, reaching pre-pandemic levels over the past few months.

Q2 2017: 148,115
Q3 2017: 123,435
Q4 2017: 128,382
Q1 2018: 142,280
Q2 2018: 135,191
Q3 2018: 127,704
Q4 2018: 116,095
Q1 2019: 111,885
Q2 2019: 116,495
Q3 2019: 117,131
Q4 2019: 116,078
Q1 2020: 105,177
Q2 2020: 3,785
Q3 2020: 25,406
Q4 2020: 30,058
Q1 2021: 46,762
Q2 2021: 88,977
Q3 2021: 132,950
Q4 2021: 110,289
Q1 2022: 116,536

Source: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html

This is all leaving out 76K Afghan refugees who were granted humanitarian parole and an estimated 100K Ukrainian refugees which the Biden administration plans to take in over the coming months.


For a more detailed look at the numbers, you can see the DHS's Quarterly New Arrivals numbers (still excluding the Afghan and Ukrainian refugees):



A similar pattern appears here as it shows that as of Q4 2021, New Arrivals to the US had nearly reached those seen before the pandemic. This also has a country-by-country breakdown, with the top ten countries for legal immigration new arrivals in the calendar year 2021 being:

315,724 Total

• (16.6%) 52,469 - Mexico
• (6.6%) 20,759 - Dominican Republic
• (6.5%) 20,381 - China
• (5.1%) 16,079 - The Philippines
• (3.2%) 10,082 - Vietnam
• (3.1%) 9,864 - El Salvador
• (2.9%) 9,100 - India
• (2.8%) 8,865 - Afghanistan
• (2.3%) 7,359 - Pakistan
• (1.8%) 5,816 - Bangladesh

And here's the breakdown by continent:

• (36.9%) 116,379 - Asia
• (36.1%) 113,811 - North America
• (11.8%) 37,184 - Africa
• (6.7%) 21,307 - South America
• (6.4%) 20,085 - Europe

Illegal immigration also has surged, if we're going by the numbers posted by the Border Patrol regarding Land Border encounters to track with demand for entering the United States illegally (which has historically held true, as about 50% of the apprehensions at the land border are released into the United States).

While land border encounters remained at a level ranging around ~500K a year throughout the late 2010s (along with an anomalously high 922K in calendar year 2019), encounters dropped dramatically in 2020 as COVID-19 struck, but rose again quickly, surpassing pre-COVID numbers.

Following another surge in March 2021, they have been at an elevated state of nearly 200K encounters a month (far, far above the 2010s average and reaching levels not seen since the mid-2000s). This suggests that large-scale illegal immigration is here in America once again.

Here are the numbers by quarter, to make this more clear (we currently have data up to March 2022):

Q4 2019: 174,869
Q1 2020: 159,007
Q2 2020: 119,706
Q3 2020: 193,240
Q4 2020: 272,403
Q1 2021: 402,860
Q2 2021: 602,472
Q3 2021: 678,784
Q4 2021: 591,371
Q1 2022: 626,431

Along with a graph showing month by month numbers, notice the surge since March 2022:

However, the nature of this immigration has changed largely, being composed of mainly single adults, and with many different countries reporting surges at different times throughout the past year.

Here are the top ten countries of citizenship for border apprehensions since the fiscal year began in July 2021 (with data up to March 2022). This is the first nine months of the fiscal year:

1,896,586 Total

• (31.1%) 589,392 - Mexico
• (11.5%) 218,174 - Honduras
• (11.2%) 213,067 - Guatemala
• (6.0%) 112,935 - Venezuela
• (5.8%) 110,299 - Nicaragua
• (4.9%) 92,943 - Cuba
• (4.6%) 86,595 - El Salvador
• (3.1%) 58,408 - Brazil
• (2.6%) 49,461 - Haiti
• (2.5%) 47,224 - Colombia

Of course, these countries all have different monthly patterns, and while Mexico's pattern largely mirrors the total, it's interesting to see what the others look like.

Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador all have a similar pattern, spiking in March 2021 then decreasing back down to normal levels in October 2022.

Venezuela had with virtually zero throughout COVID, rising significantly to about 6K - 8K a month during the spring and summer of 2021, a rapid rise afterwards leading to three months over 20K admissions (November 2021 - January 2022), and a sudden plummet downwards to 3K and 4K in February and March 2022. Brazil has a similar pattern on a smaller scale.

Nicaraguans virtually never were encountered at the border until the summer of 2021 (previously being low hundreds), and since then about 10K - 15K have shown up a month.

Haiti saw a peak in September 2021 (17,966 entries that month) as a number of issues came to a head, notably the 2021 Haiti earthquake the previous month being the deadliest natural disaster of the year. Since then it has declined to about 3K a month.

Cuba and Colombia are interesting since they both have been skyrocketing over the past few months, without an end in sight as of yet. This could foreshadow a large increase in Miami-Dade's population, as many of these Cubans and Colombians will go there after surpassing the border. Perhaps Hialeah can grow once again.

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Finally, as for something that will be watched throughout the next few months, you can see Ukraine's totals. Steady 1K a month before March 2022, when it shoots up to 5K. How high it may go will be seen especially as today (April 25) is the first day when Ukrainians aren't freely allowed across since the invasion. Next month we'll see how many made it across in time.

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These graphs, graphs for the countries I didn't link an image to above, and more can be found at this link if you want a visualization.

Once again, about half of them make it into the US. So we're possibly looking at upwards of 1 Million + illegal immigrants over the full FY 2022.


Combining the possibly upwards of 1 Million illegal immigrants with a possible ~450K legal immigrants with an additional 76K Afghan and 100K Ukrainian refugees, it's clear that 2022 will be one of the highest years for foreign immigration on record, more than making up for the last two years' slowdown. The United States is still an incredible appealing place to live.


The massive increase in international immigration over the next year is sure to give some respite to metro areas that were major losers with domestic migration trends which received lots of international migration prior to COVID (particularly New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, Philadelphia, Boston, Seattle, Minneapolis, San Diego, and Portland).

On the other hand, it looks to boost population gains or reverse declines in Sun Belt metro areas where domestic migration didn't take much of a big hit (such as Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Miami, Phoenix, Riverside, Tampa, Denver, Charlotte, Orlando, San Antonio, Austin, and Las Vegas).

In any case, it looks like the population of the United States is set to surge this year, not just on the back of increased foreign immigration, but also on the back of much higher natural increase numbers (which I'll cover in the next post).

[Biden his time]

The year 2021 began with birth counts hitting record lows. January 2021 saw the United States' population contract by 96,000 people due to deaths outnumbering births, a record that still stands to this day. This is due to the month not only being the largest peak in COVID-19 deaths the United States saw, but also because it was nine months after March 2020, which was when COVID-19 and the panic surrounding it emerged and lockdowns were beginning to be put into place. To top it off, January is already typically the month with the lowest natural increase of any month due to seasonal birth / death patterns.

However, after the Spring of 2020, excess alarm over COVID-19 had largely subsided. This caused births over 2021 to recover in relation to their positions the previous year, and the latter half of 2021 more than made up for the loss seen in the year's first few months. The current preliminary count of total births in the United States stands at 3,654,930 for the year 2021, an increase of over 40,000 compared to the final 2020 number (3,611,086).

In fact, the Total Fertility Rate of the country in 2021 is likely to be placed at 1.65 to 1.66, much higher than predictions made mid-year. Whether the uptick is the beginning of a sustained trend upward or just a correction for the birth drop remains to be seen, but an uptick did happen.

Natural Increase in the calendar year 2021, though, remained lower than it was in 2020 (+229K in 2020 vs. +196K in 2021), because even though most of the year saw more births, death counts remained at an elevated state throughout 2021, with the beginning of the year peak, and then Delta and Omicron. However, nearly all the of the deficit between the two years comes in the first few months of 2021, and the COVID-19 waves coming later in the year have been less severe than those seen previously. Because of this, we can easily say that the Fiscal Year 2022 (with its population estimates) are almost certainly going to look better than they did in 2021 in regards to natural population growth.

Here are two graphs showing how natural growth and decline happened this last year:

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Of course, though, these changes did not occur evenly state-by-state. Some places fared better than others, as can be seen in these maps:

NATURAL INCREASE YEAR 2021

Each interval is 1 per thousand people, population figures coming from most recent Vintage Population estimates, green is positive and blue is negative.

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PERC. CHANGE IN BIRTHS 2020 - 21

Each interval is 1%, green is positive and blue is negative.

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Of course, I'll also continue the month-on-month maps I was making showing natural population growth and decline, as we've now received our Q4 2021 data. Here the maps are:

Each interval is 1 per thousand people (adjusted to annual numbers), population figures coming from most recent Vintage Population estimates, green is positive and blue is negative.

OCTOBER 2021 PRELIMINARY

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NOVEMBER 2021 PRELIMINARY

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DECEMBER 2021 PRELIMINARY

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch.
Poor West Virginia.

[locked_out]

Abdullah, thank you so much for the incredibly comprehensive overview! That was more informative than any coverage I've seen elsewhere. One question I have is: how much are the 2021 ACS numbers to be believed for large cities? I have some questions due to the systematic undercounting that seems to have happened for the population estimates in the years between 2010 and 2020.

[Biden his time]

Abdullah, thank you so much for the incredibly comprehensive overview! That was more informative than any coverage I've seen elsewhere.

Glad to hear, thank you!

One question I have is: how much are the 2021 ACS numbers to be believed for large cities? I have some questions due to the systematic undercounting that seems to have happened for the population estimates in the years between 2010 and 2020.

This I don't know
However, all I can say is that it's likely to be more accurate than other estimates and projections made by non-Census Bureau outfits.

I'm no expert on this topic though so I won't speak much of it. For further reading and also if you'd like to read about something that potentially provides insight onto why the Census Bureau missed numbers in cities so bad and had a significant undercount overall, you may find this article made by the Center for Immigration Studies interesting.

I'll warn you that the CIS has a certain bias against such high population growth and views it unfavorably. Their slogan is "Low-immigrant, pro-immigrant", however as someone who strongly disagrees with a "low-immigrant" philosophy myself, this bias of theirs doesn't take away from their analysis in this article. It's a great (although somewhat lengthy) read with tons of sources at the bottom for all their claims, I found it very interesting, and I think you will too.

[locked_out]

Abdullah, thank you so much for the incredibly comprehensive overview! That was more informative than any coverage I've seen elsewhere.

Glad to hear, thank you!

One question I have is: how much are the 2021 ACS numbers to be believed for large cities? I have some questions due to the systematic undercounting that seems to have happened for the population estimates in the years between 2010 and 2020.

This I don't know
However, all I can say is that it's likely to be more accurate than other estimates and projections made by non-Census Bureau outfits.

I'm no expert on this topic though so I won't speak much of it. For further reading and also if you'd like to read about something that potentially provides insight onto why the Census Bureau missed numbers in cities so bad and had a significant undercount overall, you may find made by the Center for Immigration Studies interesting.

I'll warn you that the CIS has a certain bias against such high population growth and views it unfavorably. Their slogan is "Low-immigrant, pro-immigrant", however as someone who strongly disagrees with a "low-immigrant" philosophy myself, this bias of theirs doesn't take away from their analysis in this article. It's a great (although somewhat lengthy) read with tons of sources at the bottom for all their claims, I found it very interesting, and I think you will too.

Thank you for the reference! I study demography and this will be very useful. Much appreciated!

[Biden his time]

April 2022 Land Border Encounters released

A new monthly record was made.
Here are the top ten countries by citizenship of those encountered:

260,450 Total

• 82,917 - Mexico
• 35,079 - Cuba
• 21,153 - Ukraine
• 19,990 - Guatemala
• 15,744 - Honduras
• 13,312 - Colombia
• 12,630 - Nicaragua
• 8,401 - El Salvador
• 5,591 - Haiti
• 5,079 - India

No significant increase for Russia
Jump up for Ukraine up to 20K from 5K last month and roughly 1K a month before that.
Cuba remains at elevated level
Colombia sees significant decline

[cinyc]

Census' 2021 incorporated place estimates are out. They're not pretty, especially for NYC.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/fastest-growing-cities-population-estimates.html

My yearly interactive map is here:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/110-2021-incorporated-place-and-remainder-population-change-map

[jimrtex]

Census' 2021 incorporated place estimates are out. They're not pretty, especially for NYC.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/fastest-growing-cities-population-estimates.html

My yearly interactive map is here:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/110-2021-incorporated-place-and-remainder-population-change-map

It is interesting that they included housing counts. The new urban area definition is based on housing units, rather than population. This is because they now fudge population figures, particularly for small areas, while the housing units count is correct (a casual observer can count how many houses there are on a block, and there really are not privacy issues in revealing how many apartments are in a block). The use of housing units will also permit urban areas to be updated during the decade.

Based on the April 2020 to July 2021 change, Houston will pass Chicago in about 15 years (2036).

[Brittain33]

Based on the April 2020 to July 2021 change, Houston will pass Chicago in about 15 years (2036).

It will be interesting to see how the impacts of climate change, which are already hurting Houston more than Chicago, affect this trend. Chicago is coming in for some deadly heat but not the kind of flooding Houston's going to see more and more of.

[Torie]

Census' 2021 incorporated place estimates are out. They're not pretty, especially for NYC.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/fastest-growing-cities-population-estimates.html

My yearly interactive map is here:
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/110-2021-incorporated-place-and-remainder-population-change-map

Covid and NYC do not mix.

[Skill and Chance]

Based on the April 2020 to July 2021 change, Houston will pass Chicago in about 15 years (2036).

It will be interesting to see how the impacts of climate change, which are already hurting Houston more than Chicago, affect this trend. Chicago is coming in for some deadly heat but not the kind of flooding Houston's going to see more and more of.

Houston growth still meaningfully depends on oil prices.  This was one of the worst time periods on record for oil prices and they are now much higher.  If current prices are sustained for multiple years, expect very rapid late 2000's style growth in Houston again and it could catch Chicago a lot sooner.