Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[MR DARK BRANDON]

It's a shame that President Biden will only get to enjoy his high approval ratings for another two days since Trump is going to become President again on March 4.

The only president in American History to never fall below 50% approval. Beautiful.

JFK says Hi

[MR DARK BRANDON]

It's a shame that President Biden will only get to enjoy his high approval ratings for another two days since Trump is going to become President again on March 4.

It’s been fun....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We should only make approvals for the  for the blue wall with the exception of NC because D's aren't winning 55 or more seats with or without NC and GA as wave insurance seats for 52 votes to bypass Sinema on Filibuster.

Rs have been living in 2016 too long they haven't cracked the blue wall for 5 yrs since 2016

[VAR]

Nevada - WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal
February 26-March 1
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Approve 47%
Disapprove 40%
Not sure 12%

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/the-nevada-poll-nevadans-give-biden-sisolak-favorable-marks-2293284/

[Sir Mohamed]

Nevada - WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal
February 26-March 1
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Approve 47%
Disapprove 40%
Not sure 12%

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/the-nevada-poll-nevadans-give-biden-sisolak-favorable-marks-2293284/

How credible is this pollster? But if true it confirms that NV is less blue than people think, as the 2020 election has shown.

[It’s so Joever]

Nevada - WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal
February 26-March 1
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Approve 47%
Disapprove 40%
Not sure 12%

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/the-nevada-poll-nevadans-give-biden-sisolak-favorable-marks-2293284/

Yep, we are losing NV Senate.
I am calling it.

[BudgieForce]

Nevada - WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal
February 26-March 1
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Approve 47%
Disapprove 40%
Not sure 12%

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/the-nevada-poll-nevadans-give-biden-sisolak-favorable-marks-2293284/

Yep, we are losing NV Senate.
I am calling it.

Not sure I agree since that number seems fairly decent for Nevada.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nevada - WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal
February 26-March 1
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Approve 47%
Disapprove 40%
Not sure 12%

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/the-nevada-poll-nevadans-give-biden-sisolak-favorable-marks-2293284/

Yep, we are losing NV Senate.
I am calling it.

3 years and 8 months out. LOL. Doomers gonna doom.

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult

President Biden approval: 57/37 (+20)

Presiden’t Biden’s approval on…
Coronavirus: 60/30 (+30)
The environment: 53/29 (+24)
Protecting Medicare and Social Security: 50/27 (+23)
Climate change: 52/30 (+22)
Health care: 52/31 (+21)
Education: 49/30 (+19)
Voting rights: 47/29 (+18)
Energy: 49/33 (+16)
The economy: 52/37 (+15)
National security: 48/34 (+14)
Jobs: 49/35 (+14)
Foreign policy: 45/35 (+10)
Immigration: 45/40 (+5)
Gun policy: 37/39 (-2)

$1.9T COVID relief bill support: 77/18 (+59)

Joe Biden fav: 57/39 (+18)
Kamala Harris fav: 51/39 (+12)
Mike Pence fav: 40/48 (-8)
Donald Trump fav: 39/57 (-18)

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177-f5de-d750-a77f-f5ffd9750000

[Sir Mohamed]

The gap between Biden/Harris and Trump is 36 pts. and 30 pts., respectively, in favorability. Even if that decreases by a few points, some posters still try to convince us the election of Mr. Donald J. Trump as 47th POTUS is inevitable.

[Inmate Trump]

The gap between Biden/Harris and Trump is 36 pts. and 30 pts., respectively, in favorability. Even if that decreases by a few points, some posters still try to convince us the election of Mr. Donald J. Trump as 47th POTUS is inevitable.

Don't get cocky.  Trump winning again isn't inevitable but it's possible and after living through the tragedy of his 4 year term, we should all take that possibility extremely seriously.

[pbrower2a]

Nevada - WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal
February 26-March 1
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Approve 47%
Disapprove 40%
Not sure 12%

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/the-nevada-poll-nevadans-give-biden-sisolak-favorable-marks-2293284/

North Carolina - High Point University
February 12-26
854 adults
MoE: 3.7%

Approve 48%
Disapprove 37%
Don’t know/refused 15%

http://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2021/03/hpu-poll-presidential-approval-at-48-governor-approval-at-50-in-north-carolina/

Virginia - Roanoke College
February 14-27
596 adults
MoE: 4%

Approve 47%
Disapprove 30%
Mixed 8%
Refused 15%

https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RCPoll%20Feb%202021%20Political%20topline.pdf

An eleven-point gap favoring approval makes more sense in North Carolina. Approval is now below 50%, but disapproval is under 40%. I expect more polls today and Wednesday. This one replaces an older poll. There are enough extant polls that some can be replaced, and there can be polls from states from which we have yet to see approval polls.

I expect the big double-digit approval gap in Georgia favoring President Biden to shrink markedly in its next poll.      

Sixteen states; one more makes it one third if you count Dee Cee as a state for all practical purposes in the 2024 election.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

[pbrower2a]

I notice a pattern: although approval numbers in most states aren't high, disapproval numbers are low. This said, Biden practices so far seem pointed toward re-election if he wants it. So far he has done little controversial, something that will not be possible for now. Count also on people with Hard Right values on economics who define freedom as themselves getting their way no matter who pays a price (poor people, workers, pro-environment people) for the agenda of their choosing to start firing their political weapons as liberal politics tend to marginalize their power.   Think of the 1994, 1998, 2010, and 2014 midterms when the Economic Right find willing stooges to serve their interests and lavish those stooges with seemingly-unlimited funds. The Economic Right finds politics just another investment.

[VAR]

Monmouth
February 25-March 1
802 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Changes with January 2021

Approve 51% (-3)
Disapprove 42% (+12)
No opinion 8% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_030321.pdf/

[It’s so Joever]

Monmouth
February 25-March 1
802 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Changes with January 2021

Approve 51% (-3)
Disapprove 42% (+12)
No opinion 8% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_030321.pdf/

Oh dear god.
At this rate we will be having a 2010 midterm.

[Bootes Void]

Monmouth
February 25-March 1
802 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Changes with January 2021

Approve 51% (-3)
Disapprove 42% (+12)
No opinion 8% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_030321.pdf/

Oh dear god.
At this rate we will be having a 2010 midterm.

You seem to be dooming alot. You also have to wait and see the economic recovery as well to know how it ends up

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth
February 25-March 1
802 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Changes with January 2021

Approve 51% (-3)
Disapprove 42% (+12)
No opinion 8% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_030321.pdf/

Hmm, this is not really in line with what we're seeing elsewhere (even the 538 tracker average is closer to +16/17), but could be something under the hood, since the Right track/wrong track has gone from 42/51 in Jan to 34/61 now which seems odd given the good COVID vaccine news recently

[BudgieForce]

Monmouth
February 25-March 1
802 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Changes with January 2021

Approve 51% (-3)
Disapprove 42% (+12)
No opinion 8% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_030321.pdf/

Guess the honeymoon is wearing off. Not surprising, but I was hoping it would last a little longer.

Edit: It appears like most of the increase came from Republicans forming an opinion on Biden. Again, not surprising.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 27-March 2, 1500 adults including 1191 RV

Adults:

Approve 50 (-1)
Disapprove 39 (+3)

Strongly approve 32 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 29 (+1)

RV:

Approve 52 (+1)
Disapprove 42 (+2)

Strongly approve 36 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 33 (nc)

[BudgieForce]

I don't think Biden's approval numbers are going to fall below the low 50s, but his disapproval numbers will shoot up as Republican's start forming an opinion/start answering polls again.

If I were a gambling man, I'd say Biden's floor right now is 51%/47%. Unless everything starts imploding again, I doubt he ever goes below that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know what 2022 will hold but boarder security is also vital to Immigration reform, Biden stopped building the wall but he has plenty of time to restart the wall, D's can certainly win without the boarder fense but they will be in even better position if Biden restarts the wall as AZ, NV and NH are keys to holding on Majority.  WC and AA supports a boarder wall except for Latinos. We haven't gotten to Immigration reform yet

We also don't know how the Economy is gonna be next summer, hopefully it will be in Recovery

[sting in the rafters]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 27-March 2, 1500 adults including 1191 RV

Adults:

Approve 50 (-1)
Disapprove 39 (+3)

Strongly approve 32 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 29 (+1)

RV:

Approve 52 (+1)
Disapprove 42 (+2)

Strongly approve 36 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 33 (nc)

What's key is that Biden is still polling at 48% with independents and 61% with moderates.
On the other hand, only 43% approval among independents in the Monmouth poll is a cause for concern, though Joey still polls 60% with moderates there.

Those independent and moderate numbers are the most important metrics to be follow to evaluate the Dems' chances in 2022 and Biden's chances in 2024. <45% and <20-point gap in moderate support will be a death knell, if he stays over those numbers then they should prosper.

[pbrower2a]

We don't know what 2022 will hold but boarder security is also vital to Immigration reform, Biden stopped building the wall but he has plenty of time to restart the wall, D's can certainly win without the boarder fense but they will be in even better position if Biden restarts the wall as AZ, NV and NH are keys to holding on Majority.  WC and AA supports a boarder wall except for Latinos. We haven't gotten to Immigration reform yet

We also don't know how the Economy is gonna be next summer, hopefully it will be in Recovery

Budget buster or rich source of jobs?

[GeorgiaModerate]

McLaughlin & Associates (Trump's favorite pollster), Feb. 24-28, 1000 LV

Approve 55
Disapprove 40

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 30

[pbrower2a]

Nothing by Quinnipiac for the last two weeks. It is also about time for those on-line 50-state polls by Morning Consult or Civiqs or whatever, don't you think?