Florida 2022 Megathread

[2016]

How does DeSantis do by CD? His gerrymander is interesting because only 3 of the districts are true Dem packs; Biden won 9, 14, 22, 23, and 25 all by under 20%. Realistically though, I think it'd be tricky for DeSantis to flip any of these even if he's landsliding statewide. The most likely one may be Biden + 17 FL-09 because it's relatively homogenous and tends to favor incumbents, but that's a stretch.

On the flip side, the only Trump districts Christ has a remote shot at are FL-27 and FL-28 if Trump 2020's performance (which was pretty insane) really was a fluke. 27 was only Trump +0.3 so even a tiny bit of reversion would flip it to Christ, plus 27 has the best shifts of all 3 cuban districts for Dems long term due to it taking in a lot of educated areas and downtown downtown Miami. My guess is he loses it though.

So the same 20-8 breakdown.

Here is the Turnout in all 28 Districts thus far:

https://twitter.com/Bryce__FL/status/1588991994361450497

https://twitter.com/Bryce__FL/status/1588992108643307521

https://twitter.com/Bryce__FL/status/1588992231397990400

Republicans have an 8.3 Point Edge FL-27 (Salazars District). Taddeo is screwed if this holds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How does DeSantis do by CD? His gerrymander is interesting because only 3 of the districts are true Dem packs; Biden won 9, 14, 22, 23, and 25 all by under 20%. Realistically though, I think it'd be tricky for DeSantis to flip any of these even if he's landsliding statewide. The most likely one may be Biden + 17 FL-09 because it's relatively homogenous and tends to favor incumbents, but that's a stretch.

On the flip side, the only Trump districts Christ has a remote shot at are FL-27 and FL-28 if Trump 2020's performance (which was pretty insane) really was a fluke. 27 was only Trump +0.3 so even a tiny bit of reversion would flip it to Christ, plus 27 has the best shifts of all 3 cuban districts for Dems long term due to it taking in a lot of educated areas and downtown downtown Miami. My guess is he loses it though.

So the same 20-8 breakdown.

Here is the Turnout in all 28 Districts thus far:

https://twitter.com/Bryce__FL/status/1588991994361450497

https://twitter.com/Bryce__FL/status/1588992108643307521

https://twitter.com/Bryce__FL/status/1588992231397990400

Republicans have an 8.3 Point Edge FL-27 (Salazars District). Taddeo is screwed if this holds.

Thank you except I cannot see the tweets lol cause they're protected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 keep talking about red wave Dem enthusiasm is now tied with Rs 73%up from 69/73 a month ago we're gonna win WAVE INSURANCE

What happened to Drazen she was ahead in now 3 straight polls she is down she won't win

[2016]

2016 keep talking about red wave Dem enthusiasm is now tied with Rs 73%up from 69/73 a month ago we're gonna win WAVE INSURANCE

What happened to Drazen she was ahead in now 3 straight polls she is down she won't win

I don't care about Oregon, I only care about two Numbers, 51 and 218 and Republicans will reach both.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MARIST just polled PA, GA and AZ that's 51(50 for Ds all Ds ahead

We will see in 48 hrs which polls are right

[2016]

I wonder if Democrats in Florida are now regretting not voting early in larger Numbers.

The Office of Governor Ron DeSantis issued a potential Tropical Storm Warning today for Southeastern FL namely Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties for Tuesday Nov 8

https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1589315536420499456

[iceman]

I wonder if Democrats in Florida are now regretting not voting early in larger Numbers.

The Office of Governor Ron DeSantis issued a potential Tropical Storm Warning today for Southeastern FL namely Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties for Tuesday Nov 8

https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1589315536420499456

based on the weather models, it’s not going to hit until the 10th.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In that same MARIST poll that has Fetterman, Warnock and Kelly AHEAD Ds are outvoting Rs 70/30 for Fetterman so much without PA a 51 R majority

[2016]

I wonder if Democrats in Florida are now regretting not voting early in larger Numbers.

The Office of Governor Ron DeSantis issued a potential Tropical Storm Warning today for Southeastern FL namely Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties for Tuesday Nov 8

https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1589315536420499456

based on the weather models, it’s not going to hit until the 10th.

Thank You for telling me
Ron is going to romp to victory on Tuesday then
Republicans still have a lead in Dade County.

About 60 % of all Florida Ballots will be cast early. Not a good sign if you are Crist, Demings or anyone else named D in a competitive District.

I was worried about FL-27 (Salazar) but Republicans seem to have an 8.3 Percentage Point Turnout Edge so unless something crazy happens Salazar will be reelected I think.

[iceman]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

[2016]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

[iceman]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

where are you getting your numbers for early vote?


seems like the votes today are more DEM as the GOP lead decrease slightly and today is most likely only in-person as there are no VBM counted? DEMS resurge in FL?

[EastwoodS]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

where are you getting your numbers for early vote?


seems like the votes today are more DEM as the GOP lead decrease slightly and today is most likely only in-person as there are no VBM counted? DEMS resurge in FL?

Dems are still losing in a massive landslide there

[2016]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

where are you getting your numbers for early vote?


seems like the votes today are more DEM as the GOP lead decrease slightly and today is most likely only in-person as there are no VBM counted? DEMS resurge in FL?

Today is "SOULS TO THE POLLS" Day remember. The Final Sunday before an Election is traditionally a Democratic Day.

Check this Site out, it has all the Numbers:
https://www.freshtake.vote/home/turnout.php

[iceman]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

where are you getting your numbers for early vote?


seems like the votes today are more DEM as the GOP lead decrease slightly and today is most likely only in-person as there are no VBM counted? DEMS resurge in FL?

Today is "SOULS TO THE POLLS" Day remember. The Final Sunday before an Election is traditionally a Democratic Day.

Check this Site out, it has all the Numbers:
https://www.freshtake.vote/home/turnout.php

It doesn’t show the actual number of ballots though, only the return rate and percentages the ballots received.

[2016]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

where are you getting your numbers for early vote?


seems like the votes today are more DEM as the GOP lead decrease slightly and today is most likely only in-person as there are no VBM counted? DEMS resurge in FL?

Today is "SOULS TO THE POLLS" Day remember. The Final Sunday before an Election is traditionally a Democratic Day.

Check this Site out, it has all the Numbers:
https://www.freshtake.vote/home/turnout.php

It doesn’t show the actual number of ballots though, only the return rate and percentages the ballots received.

Look into the upper left hand corner.

It says
(R) 2,071,787
(D) 1,746,886
(NPA) 946,965
R lead by 324,901

[iceman]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

where are you getting your numbers for early vote?


seems like the votes today are more DEM as the GOP lead decrease slightly and today is most likely only in-person as there are no VBM counted? DEMS resurge in FL?

Today is "SOULS TO THE POLLS" Day remember. The Final Sunday before an Election is traditionally a Democratic Day.

Check this Site out, it has all the Numbers:
https://www.freshtake.vote/home/turnout.php

It doesn’t show the actual number of ballots though, only the return rate and percentages the ballots received.

Look into the upper left hand corner.

It says
(R) 2,071,787
(D) 1,746,886
(NPA) 946,965
R lead by 324,901

from a county by county breakdown perspective it doesnt.

[2016]

If 60% is cast as an EV then the actual number of votes on election night might not exceed 8M based on how the EV is going. That would be unimpressive since there were 8.2 Million cast in Florida in 2018.

Right now cast Ballots in FL:
4,726,089

Total Ballots cast in FL 2018:
8,305,929

Current Turnout: 56,90 %

Tomorrow a lot of VBM Ballots will be tabulated.

where are you getting your numbers for early vote?


seems like the votes today are more DEM as the GOP lead decrease slightly and today is most likely only in-person as there are no VBM counted? DEMS resurge in FL?

Today is "SOULS TO THE POLLS" Day remember. The Final Sunday before an Election is traditionally a Democratic Day.

Check this Site out, it has all the Numbers:
https://www.freshtake.vote/home/turnout.php

It doesn’t show the actual number of ballots though, only the return rate and percentages the ballots received.

Look into the upper left hand corner.

It says
(R) 2,071,787
(D) 1,746,886
(NPA) 946,965
R lead by 324,901

from a county by county breakdown perspective it doesnt.

You can select the County here:
https://www.freshtake.vote/home/index.php
and here
https://www.freshtake.vote/home/who.php

[iceman]

Tropical Storm Nicole forecast to hit SE Florida on Thursday. What impacts would it have on the election?

Will the voters not show up on Eday and would rather do some preparations instead?

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm convinced DeSantis will win Miami-Dade and perhaps even win statewide by more than Jeb! 2002.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1589591163740250112

[2016]

I'm convinced DeSantis will win Miami-Dade and perhaps even win statewide by more than Jeb! 2002.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1589591163740250112

Perhaps. We will see. Trump got 47 % of Hispanics in FL during the 2020 Election.

If DeSantis wins the Hispanic Vote tomorrow then YES you could very well be right with your Prediction

[iceman]

turnout is exceptionally high so far on the 3 counties that were affected by Hurricane Ian than in 2018. Huge improvements also for the GOP in Broward county compared to the last midterm. The only places where I see the DEMS is doing much better or at par with the DEMS in 2018 is on Pinellas, Hillsborough and Orange counties.

[2016]

turnout is exceptionally high so far on the 3 counties that were affected by Hurricane Ian than in 2018. Huge improvements also for the GOP in Broward county compared to the last midterm. The only places where I see the DEMS is doing much better or at par with the DEMS in 2018 is on Pinellas, Hillsborough and Orange counties.

Please don't get me too excited

[iceman]

based on the early vote, Crist probably ekes out a win in his home county of Pinellas.


I actually dont care much for the other races only the Florida ones. If the GOP loses tomorrow, then they should by all means put the blame on Trump so that they can get rid of his hold on the party once in for all. I am actually crossing my fingers that the GOP may underperform tomorrow nationally so that Trump will not have a talking point or narrative that the midterm is all about him.

[2016]

based on the early vote, Crist probably ekes out a win in his home county of Pinellas.


I actually dont care much for the other races only the Florida ones. If the GOP loses tomorrow, then they should by all means put the blame on Trump so that they can get rid of his hold on the party once in for all. I am actually crossing my fingers that the GOP may underperform tomorrow nationally so that Trump will not have a talking point or narrative that the midterm is all about him.

Which of the 5 Statewide Races in Florida Governor, Senate, AG, CFO, Ag Comm will be the closest?

I think CFO! What do you think?