NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

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So far all of these races are looking very close, though since the Republicans are the incumbents in most of these races, that's not great news for them, especially CA-48.

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MN-08 is too early to really be able to tell. As for KY-06, a narrow Barr lead isn't devasting news for McGrath. It's not like 3% (and this margin could certainly change) is insurmountable, and did anyone really think she was trouncing Barr by 15%?

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That's weird. One response caused the margin to go from 46-44 Barr to 47-44 McGrath. Was it a glitch or something? Or were they not calculating the percentages properly before then?

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I realize that House polls needs to be taken with mounds of salt, but I will say that this is a really neat idea and it's interesting to see how the numbers unfold.

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Reading into crosstabs ironically in a poll with two responses so far is peak Atlas.

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Reading into crosstabs unironically in a poll with two responses so far is peak Atlas.

I stand corrected.

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If those MN-08 numbers hold it would be a pretty great result for Dems considering it is supposed to be their most vulnerable seat.

Yeah, if more polls back this up, Nate might have to reconsider rating it "Lean R".

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Interesting that they stopped polling KY-06 so close to getting 500 responses. Since they've targeted the Midwest quite a bit so far, I wonder if the next district that they're going to poll will be somewhere in the South, or maybe a Northeastern district like NY-19 or NY-22.

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Interesting that they stopped polling KY-06 so close to getting 500 responses. Since they've targeted the Midwest quite a bit so far, I wonder if the next district that they're going to poll will be somewhere in the South, or maybe a Northeastern district like NY-19 or NY-22.

I'd really rather see some KS-02/KS-03 polls to be honest. Much more interesting races.

I'd also like to see KS-02/03, but I think that there are plenty of interesting races to watch in New York, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas.

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XINGKERUI Ratings Change Projection

MN-03: Likely R to Toss-Up

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These polls aren't actually that interesting if they are all just weighted to show up as virtual ties.

That's a good point. It would be pretty suspicious if literally every poll showed a result within 1 or 2%.

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WV-03 is coming up next.

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Ruh-oh, Miller's lead is down to 6%. Titanium R -> Lean R

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Annnnnnd Ojeda's ahead again. Atlas meltdown in 3... 2... 1...

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It's looking like MN-03 will be the first poll to show something other than an extremely close race. As for WV-03, I have no idea what to expect for the eventual results.

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Now that we have 1 response from the VA-07 poll, I'm ready to make a XINGKERUI Projection:

Virginia's 7th Congressional District:

Spanberger - 100% (Projected Winner)
Brat - 0%

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In all seriousness, it looks like MN-08 is probably going to end at Radinovich +1 or 2, since they hit 500 responses.

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Phillips is up by 10 now, which just about puts him outside of the MoE.

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I think Miller seems to be heading for a double-digit lead. Not at all a comfortable margin for a district that Trump won by 49 points, but forcing Republicans to invest here in the first place is great. Less money to go to around for other districts like VA-02 and VA-07, where they might be caught flat-footed.

But, I was told that Ojeda would win by double-digits and the race was Lean D because Ojeda was so #populist and a June poll showed him leading. Anyway, here's why Bevin is an underdog in 2019.

LOL

Told you guys not rely on the #populist rural districts. They'll stab you in the back every time the second some black guys in the NFL kneel. Focus on the burbstompings like VA-10, PA-17, and newcomer MN-03.

Racist WV Hicks will not vote for Ojeda even though he seems like a "good fit", as he is a member of the anti-white hate group (Democratic Party.)

But WV is a Democratic state at heart, and would totally have gone for Hillary in 2016 if only elitists living in their ivory towers like you had been nicer to WWC Populists in WV.

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From a pragmatic perspective, why shouldn't liberals and progressives prefer to have Phillips in the House as opposed to Ojeda? Ojeda would probably vote with Trump 50-60% of the time.

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While WV-03 might be a bridge too far (this is actually not an attack on people from West Virginia, unless you think saying that it's Republican-leaning is an insult, lol), it definitely looks like Democrats are set for a comeback in the Midwest.

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Meanwhile, the MN-03 poll is done, and Phillips finished a little over 9 points ahead, enough for it to be just outside the margin of error. So what's bigger news? That an incumbent Republican who won by double digits in 2016 while Clinton won easily is now losing by near double digits? Or that a Democrat is down by 6% so far in a poll of a district that Trump won by 50%?

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Meanwhile, the MN-03 poll is done, and Phillips finished a little over 9 points ahead, enough for it to be just outside the margin of error. So what's bigger news? That an incumbent Republican who won by double digits in 2016 while Clinton won easily is now losing by near double digits? Or that a Democrat is down by 6% so far in a poll of a district that Trump won by 50%?

Well this could bode really really badly for Manchin, so they are about equal.

This being bad news for Manchin doesn't follow. As an incumbent, he's certainly going to do better than Ojeda, possibly significantly better, and I doubt Ojeda is going to drag him down. It doesn't work like that. Also, we already do have several polls showing Manchin ahead, so this poll (again, so far) just suggests that Ojeda is underperforming Manchin.

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Sure, there are issues with the methodology, but it's not like internal polls are going to be more accurate, especially since they're often released to send a specific message.

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I'm gonna guess that VA-05 or VA-02 will be the next polled district.

I'm going to guess OH-01