NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2024, 07:38:55 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 14 15 16 17 ... 83
Poll
Question: How would you rate the NYT/Siena House polls methodology
#1
A: Freedom Methodology		  
#2
B		  
#3
C		  
#4
D		  
#5
F: Horrible Methodology		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 139

Author Topic: NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:  (Read 138418 times)
Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,909


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #275 on: September 09, 2018, 03:18:21 PM »
Hmmm, one interesting thing to note regarding WV-03 is that yesterday they were calling ONLY cell phones.

Now they are calling landlines as well. I wonder who does better on landlines vs cells in this case?
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,256


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #276 on: September 09, 2018, 03:30:24 PM »
Seems odd to be polling Minnesota in the middle of the opening Vikings game.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #277 on: September 09, 2018, 03:31:32 PM »
It's looking like MN-03 will be the first poll to show something other than an extremely close race. As for WV-03, I have no idea what to expect for the eventual results.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,765


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #278 on: September 09, 2018, 04:15:53 PM »
Phillips does appear to be pulling away in MN-3, important to note that while it is still a MOE race, Paulsen doesn't get to 50% even if the MOE is as favorable to him as possible.

Based on the WV-3 results so far, it appears Ojeda has done a superb job defining himself, his favorability at the moment is terrific.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #279 on: September 09, 2018, 04:48:45 PM »
Miller in the lead again!
Logged
Jeppe
Bosse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,805
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #280 on: September 09, 2018, 04:52:07 PM »
Miller actually looks somewhat pretty in her NYT photo. I always remember her from unflattering photos like this.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #281 on: September 09, 2018, 04:53:41 PM »
Yeah, Manchin needs to be outperforming Ojeda here or else he is almost screwed.
Logged
Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,909


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #282 on: September 09, 2018, 04:56:47 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 09, 2018, 04:53:41 PM
Yeah, Manchin needs to be outperforming Ojeda here or else he is almost screwed.

LOL, compare the trajectory of the poll with the MN-03 poll. At this point in the MN-03 poll, Paulsen was ahead (by more than Miller is up now). And now towards the end of the MN-03, Paulsen is getting absolutely blanched.

Also looks like VA-07 will be starting soon.
Logged
Jeppe
Bosse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,805
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #283 on: September 09, 2018, 04:58:14 PM »
Yeah, the sample size is small enough where it's probably not at all indicative of what the results will be like when we're at ~500 respondents.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #284 on: September 09, 2018, 05:04:04 PM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on September 09, 2018, 04:56:47 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 09, 2018, 04:53:41 PM
Yeah, Manchin needs to be outperforming Ojeda here or else he is almost screwed.

LOL, compare the trajectory of the poll with the MN-03 poll. At this point in the MN-03 poll, Paulsen was ahead (by more than Miller is up now). And now towards the end of the MN-03, Paulsen is getting absolutely blanched.

Also looks like VA-07 will be starting soon.

I thought it was a well accepted fact that Manchin is and probably needs to do better in WV 3rd than Ojeda.
Logged
nerd73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 985
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #285 on: September 09, 2018, 05:14:02 PM »
VA-07 is Titanium D.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,948


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #286 on: September 09, 2018, 05:14:46 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 09, 2018, 05:04:04 PM
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on September 09, 2018, 04:56:47 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 09, 2018, 04:53:41 PM
Yeah, Manchin needs to be outperforming Ojeda here or else he is almost screwed.

LOL, compare the trajectory of the poll with the MN-03 poll. At this point in the MN-03 poll, Paulsen was ahead (by more than Miller is up now). And now towards the end of the MN-03, Paulsen is getting absolutely blanched.

Also looks like VA-07 will be starting soon.

I thought it was a well accepted fact that Manchin is and probably needs to do better in WV 3rd than Ojeda.

That depends on how well Ojeda is doing.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #287 on: September 09, 2018, 05:19:45 PM »
Now that we have 1 response from the VA-07 poll, I'm ready to make a XINGKERUI Projection:

Virginia's 7th Congressional District:

Spanberger - 100% (Projected Winner)
Brat - 0%
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,525
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #288 on: September 09, 2018, 05:20:49 PM »
Please remember you all that Siena is pro incumbent
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #289 on: September 09, 2018, 05:22:34 PM »
Quote from: King Louis XVI on September 09, 2018, 05:20:49 PM
Please remember you all that Siena is pro incumbent


That makes the MN-03 poll even better for Dems than it is already, tbh.
Logged
ltomlinson31
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 448
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #290 on: September 09, 2018, 05:23:46 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 09, 2018, 05:19:45 PM
Now that we have 1 response from the VA-07 poll, I'm ready to make a XINGKERUI Projection:

Virginia's 7th Congressional District:

Spanberger - 100% (Projected Winner)
Brat - 0%

She's up to two votes now. Safe D to Titanium D.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #291 on: September 09, 2018, 05:27:31 PM »
It's now 3-0!

No wonder Republicans illegally leaked her files. They were desperate to make up that 100 point gap.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #292 on: September 09, 2018, 05:33:48 PM »
Brat has just made up 40 points in the past 5 minutes. At this rate, Republicans will win every single election in the country by November.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,279
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #293 on: September 09, 2018, 05:34:03 PM »
 Ojeda is going to win guys. The environment plus strong campaign will sink Miller.
Logged
Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,909


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #294 on: September 09, 2018, 05:35:07 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 09, 2018, 05:19:45 PM
Now that we have 1 response from the VA-07 poll, I'm ready to make a XINGKERUI Projection:

Virginia's 7th Congressional District:

Spanberger - 100% (Projected Winner)
Brat - 0%

So a XINGKERUI Projection is based on more information than a WULFRIC Projection?
Logged
Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,909


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #295 on: September 09, 2018, 05:37:48 PM »
Quote from: King Louis XVI on September 09, 2018, 05:20:49 PM
Please remember you all that Siena is pro incumbent


I don't think it really makes sense to compare these NYT/Siena polls to other Siena polls.

From what I understand, they are not using exactly the same methodology, for one thing. The NYT/Siena polls are based off the voter file, whereas (I think?) the regular Siena polls used random digit dialing, though maybe I am wrong about that.

If this is the case, that also means it is probably a mistake for 538 to be adjusting these based on past Siena polls, because they are not going to be the same as the other Siena polls.
Logged
kph14
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #296 on: September 09, 2018, 05:39:01 PM »
Even the one suburban Republican voter thinks that Trump committed federal crimes. Wow.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #297 on: September 09, 2018, 05:39:06 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on September 09, 2018, 05:33:48 PM
Brat has just made up 40 points in the past 5 minutes. At this rate, Republicans will win every single election in the country by November.

Never mind, Spanberger just made up like 10 points. I'm back to projecting Democrats will win every single election in the country by November.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,760


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #298 on: September 09, 2018, 05:40:51 PM »
Icespear needs to stop with the trolling overreactions.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #299 on: September 09, 2018, 05:49:24 PM »
This thread is a bad idea.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 14 15 16 17 ... 83  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 10 queries.