NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Here is a live thread for NYT's new project of live polling many of the HOUSE and SENATE competitive races

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

Remove this mods if fit, I didn't want us cluttering the other thread, NYT plans to do at least 5 races per day

[Florida Man for Crime]

OK, I will start posting here. I think this should become a megathread.



Of the various weighting options, it seems like across all the polls the way NYT/Siena is weighting is the most GOP-friendly of all the other options they list.

Dems generally do better when you don't weight by primary vote, use census data instead of voting records, and don't weight by education.

However, I think the NYT/Upshot methodology on weighting is the most methodologically sound of the options, and likely the most accurate as compared to the others. That means that some other public polls may be overstating the Dems, perhaps.



As opposed to weighting methodology, it is a little bit harder to tell a systematic difference between different turnout models. So far, in some districts the broader turnout models seem better for the GOP, and in others better for Dems.

[Rhenna]

Here is a live thread for NYT's new project of live polling many of the HOUSE and SENATE competitive races

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

Remove this mods if fit, I didn't want us cluttering the other thread, NYT plans to do at least 5 races per day

Where are we getting 5 a day from? They only plan to do 100 races with 61 days until election day.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Here is a live thread for NYT's new project of live polling many of the HOUSE and SENATE competitive races

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

Remove this mods if fit, I didn't want us cluttering the other thread, NYT plans to do at least 5 races per day

Where are we getting 5 a day from? They only plan to do 100 races with 61 days until election day.

I believe it was from a tweet

[Holmes]

Here is a live thread for NYT's new project of live polling many of the HOUSE and SENATE competitive races

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

Remove this mods if fit, I didn't want us cluttering the other thread, NYT plans to do at least 5 races per day

Where are we getting 5 a day from? They only plan to do 100 races with 61 days until election day.

They might repeat some of the same races sometimes.

[Rhenna]

Here is a live thread for NYT's new project of live polling many of the HOUSE and SENATE competitive races

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

Remove this mods if fit, I didn't want us cluttering the other thread, NYT plans to do at least 5 races per day

Where are we getting 5 a day from? They only plan to do 100 races with 61 days until election day.

I believe it was from a tweet

Was it from Cohn himself, NYT, or anybody who would really be involved with this? I think they'll probably do a few of these per week.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Where are we getting 5 a day from? They only plan to do 100 races with 61 days until election day.

Well, they are running 5 polls simultaneously now. I am just assuming they will keep doing the same amount as they are starting off with (though you are right, that is just an assumption, so maybe not).

However, all the polls are conducted over multiple days, and it seems like they are staggering when they start the polls. So my guess is that perhaps at any one time there will be about 5 polls running, but that is entirely consistent with having only 1 or 2 NEW polls start (or finish) each day. The other polls going at any given time will be ones that already started, but need another day or two to get more responses.

[Rhenna]

Here is a live thread for NYT's new project of live polling many of the HOUSE and SENATE competitive races

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

Remove this mods if fit, I didn't want us cluttering the other thread, NYT plans to do at least 5 races per day

Where are we getting 5 a day from? They only plan to do 100 races with 61 days until election day.

They might repeat some of the same races sometimes.

That's possible too. Rougly 65-80 competitive House races plus a dozen or so competitive Senate races allows for a handful of repeats.

[Sorenroy]

I think the biggest takeaway for me is that most of the non-incumbent candidates need to improve their name recognition. Besides KY-06, which is a clear outlier (both candidates have nearly 90% of people giving a favorable or unfavorable view), all of the seats see the Democratic challenger with less than 50% of people actually having an opinion either way.

[Pollster]

Folks, please don't extrapolate a conclusion from a poll with n = 164. Wait for a larger sample size.
The Ky-6 poll only reached two voters under the age of 30. Foolish to make conclusions on it at this point.

I will say, their methodology looks incredibly sound and these polls will likely be highly legitimate when they are complete.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

OK, I will start posting here. I think this should become a megathread.



Of the various weighting options, it seems like across all the polls the way NYT/Siena is weighting is the most GOP-friendly of all the other options they list.

Dems generally do better when you don't weight by primary vote, use census data instead of voting records, and don't weight by education.

However, I think the NYT/Upshot methodology on weighting is the most methodologically sound of the options, and likely the most accurate as compared to the others. That means that some other public polls may be overstating the Dems, perhaps.



As opposed to weighting methodology, it is a little bit harder to tell a systematic difference between different turnout models. So far, in some districts the broader turnout models seem better for the GOP, and in others better for Dems.

Yep, when the methodology that is the most sound isn't showing a #BlueWave, we need to pay attention.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cali-48 polling has resumed, Rouda is now up by 2

[Xing]

So far all of these races are looking very close, though since the Republicans are the incumbents in most of these races, that's not great news for them, especially CA-48.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Where can I find the data for IL-06 and IL-12?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Where can I find the data for IL-06 and IL-12?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il06-1.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot

[DrScholl]

In CA-48 the number of callers selecting Rouda looks really strong in Huntington Beach which is really good since it has long been a Republican stronghold.

[CityofSinners]

I wonder how much this whole project will cost. Even getting a discount for the huge amount of polls commisioned it can't  be cheap.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Rouda now down to +1

[Devout Centrist]

Wow, horrible results for Democrats. There are five more red dots than blue dots in Illinois's 12th and ten more red dots than blue dots in the other districts.

I hope you delusional bastards now agree that the blue wave is dead. There is nothing you can do about it. R+5 midterm coming.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at how there's not even a 2% response rate.

[psychprofessor]

Every GOP incumbent is well below 50% and all but one has higher unfavorables than favorables...yikes

[Ebsy]

Trump's approval rating in these districts is what is really catching my eye.

I think there is going to be 2-3 new polls a day with polling being spread out over a couple days for each race until they get an n of around 500. Not sure if they are going to do Senate races.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump's approval rating in these districts is what is really catching my eye.

I think there is going to be 2-3 new polls a day with polling being spread out over a couple days for each race until they get an n of around 500. Not sure if they are going to do Senate races.

I mean they said they would, but I guess it could also depend on if they get enough respondents for the House races too.

[BudgieForce]

I'm not sure I like watching how the sausage gets made.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting concept.