NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Florida Man for Crime]

MN-03 is starting to confirm the stereotype a bit more.

Phillips is really killing it with white college grads, post-grads, and independents. 100% of all of those.

However, he is up 80-20 with males. Paulsen really underperforming for a Republican with men. Maybe he needs to do some sort of ad to make himself appear more masculine somehow.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

MN-03 is starting to confirm the stereotype a bit more.

Phillips is really killing it with white college grads, post-grads, and independents. 100% of all of those.

However, he is up 80-20 with males. Paulsen really underperforming for a Republican with men. Maybe he needs to do some sort of ad to make himself appear more masculine somehow.

I mean, it's only 10 respondents so...

[Antonio the Sixth]

#analysis in this thread is godawful even by Atlas standards.

[Predictor]

13 respondents now. 9 Democrats and 3 Republicans plus 1 undecided.

[Xing]

Reading into crosstabs unironically in a poll with two responses so far is peak Atlas.

I stand corrected.

[morgieb]

#analysis in this thread is godawful even by Atlas standards.

I'm pretty sure everyone is joking about the MN-03 stuff.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

KY-06 interesting poll

[Florida Man for Crime]

Reading into crosstabs unironically in a poll with two responses so far is peak Atlas.

I stand corrected.

LOL Paulsen is doing better (tied) with non-whites than with whites (whites going Dem 59-34). I guess he must have really great minority outreach, and Trump is gaining ground with non-whites.

[Florida Man for Crime]

#analysis in this thread is godawful even by Atlas standards.

I'm pretty sure everyone is joking about the MN-03 stuff.

[IceSpear]

If those MN-08 numbers hold it would be a pretty great result for Dems considering it is supposed to be their most vulnerable seat.

[Xing]

If those MN-08 numbers hold it would be a pretty great result for Dems considering it is supposed to be their most vulnerable seat.

Yeah, if more polls back this up, Nate might have to reconsider rating it "Lean R".

[Florida Man for Crime]

Paulsen has pulled into the lead, with the help of the one and only 18-29 year old respondent, who is voting Republican. #GENZISGENGOP

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Paulsen has pulled into the lead, with the help of the one and only 18-29 year old respondent, who is voting Republican. #GENZISGENGOP

How can we best extrapolate this sample of 1 to those under 18 for future elections? We must analyze this to death.

[KingSweden]

Paulsen has pulled into the lead, with the help of the one and only 18-29 year old respondent, who is voting Republican. #GENZISGENGOP

How can we best extrapolate this sample of 1 to those under 18 for future elections? We must analyze this to death.

He is presumably the voice of a generation

[Xing]

Interesting that they stopped polling KY-06 so close to getting 500 responses. Since they've targeted the Midwest quite a bit so far, I wonder if the next district that they're going to poll will be somewhere in the South, or maybe a Northeastern district like NY-19 or NY-22.

[Predictor]

Interesting that they stopped polling KY-06 so close to getting 500 responses. Since they've targeted the Midwest quite a bit so far, I wonder if the next district that they're going to poll will be somewhere in the South, or maybe a Northeastern district like NY-19 or NY-22.

I'd really rather see some KS-02/KS-03 polls to be honest. Much more interesting races.

Also with 94 respondents as of right now, Paulsen is +8.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Interesting that they stopped polling KY-06 so close to getting 500 responses. Since they've targeted the Midwest quite a bit so far, I wonder if the next district that they're going to poll will be somewhere in the South, or maybe a Northeastern district like NY-19 or NY-22.

I'd really rather see some KS-02/KS-03 polls to be honest. Much more interesting races.

Also with 93 respondents as of right now, Paulsen is +9.

I'd like to see races that are currently "Likely R" polled.

We know that the races currently rated tossup are generally competitive, more or less. I don't really care that much if the Dem is up 3 or down 3 in those, we know that they will generally be in that sort of area already.

On the other hand, we could see something surprising in those Likely R races, and that would give us an idea of to what degree they are within reach (or not).

Also, I would really like to see the handful of races where ratings are mostly based upon private un-released polling, such as TX-23 and CA-21. Do polls really show the R incumbents safe in those districts? Would be nice to get confirmation (or disconfirmation) in a public poll.

[Xing]

Interesting that they stopped polling KY-06 so close to getting 500 responses. Since they've targeted the Midwest quite a bit so far, I wonder if the next district that they're going to poll will be somewhere in the South, or maybe a Northeastern district like NY-19 or NY-22.

I'd really rather see some KS-02/KS-03 polls to be honest. Much more interesting races.

I'd also like to see KS-02/03, but I think that there are plenty of interesting races to watch in New York, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas.

[Predictor]

Seems like they're done with MN-03 for a little bit. Paulsen is currently +12 with 102 polled.

[Adam Griffin]

Interesting tidbits out of KY-6:

[Sorenroy]

I hate the way 538 is handling these live polls. They seem to be entering them every day as completely separate data points. That means that KY-06 will likely go into their model as three different polls despite the fact that over a fifth of the voters will be the same throughout. Also, Sienna (the company doing the polling) is saying pretty clearly that, unless the polls have over 500 responses, they are not finished. It seems to me like a poor practice on 538's part.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls

[Sorenroy]

I hate the way 538 is handling these live polls. They seem to be entering them every day as completely separate data points. That means that KY-06 will likely go into their model as three different polls despite the fact that over a fifth of the voters will be the same throughout. Also, Sienna (the company doing the polling) is saying pretty clearly that, unless the polls have over 500 responses, they are not finished. It seems to me like a poor practice on 538's part.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls

Actually, it's even worse then just entering it as three polls. Looking at Kentucky, the "first poll" has 164 LV and shows Barr up two points. The second poll has 485 LV and shows Barr up one. Rather then enter them as two separate polls or just using the most recent data, FiveThirtyEight seems to have gone with the most logical solution of averaging the two numbers together to show a sample size of 324.5 LV and a lead for Barr of 1.5%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/kentucky/6/#deluxe

[GeorgiaModerate]

I hate the way 538 is handling these live polls. They seem to be entering them every day as completely separate data points. That means that KY-06 will likely go into their model as three different polls despite the fact that over a fifth of the voters will be the same throughout. Also, Sienna (the company doing the polling) is saying pretty clearly that, unless the polls have over 500 responses, they are not finished. It seems to me like a poor practice on 538's part.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls

I sent feedback to 538 about the KY-06 poll being included with a sample size of 164, and got a response this morning: "...we're updating any Siena/Upshot poll once its sample size is over 150. Then we put in the finished poll once it's done."

[Florida Man for Crime]

They are resuming polling again. Looks like they are polling during the day on the weekend.

[Pollster]

What I find interesting in the KY-6 race is that among voters who simply say they are likely to vote, McGrath leads somewhat comfortably, whereas among likely voter screens based on voting history, Barr leads somewhat comfortably.

I anticipate the likely voter screen to become a subject of some debate among pollsters as we get closer to the election. There are pros and cons to both approaches.