2020 Poll Hype Thread

[MillennialModerate]

AJC:
Trump +2
Perdue +4

NYT:
Trump +1 or TIED

Marquette:
Biden +6

[Bootes Void]

Texas: tied
Georgia : Biden +2
Wisconsin(Marquette) +7

[NOVA Green]

I’m gonna miss the hype =(


Anyways predictions:

AJC: TIED (48-48)
NYT Texas: TIED (46-46)


Marquette WI: Biden +8 (50-42)

Don’t worry Buzz, Atlas obsesses over every race, you can expect poll hyping long after this.

If Trump loses Florida I’ll be gone =(

It's okay... just like Vietnam, we will all go down together...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Marist has become one of the best pollsters for Republicans due to their methodology. In a year when most undecideds are young, independent, POC, and Trump disapprovers, their refusal to push them gives Republican candidates an artificial advantage. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'll take the pessimistic approach and say:

GA: Trump +2 -- Actual:  Tie
TX: Trump +4
WI: Biden +3

[wbrocks67]

GIven NYT/Siena's history of polling hispanics in TX, I don't have a lot of faith but we'll see.

[wbrocks67]

Apparently we're getting this one today too

https://elections.wisc.edu/2020-election-survey/

[wbrocks67]

Marist has become one of the best pollsters for Republicans due to their methodology. In a year when most undecideds are young, independent, POC, and Trump disapprovers, their refusal to push them gives Republican candidates an artificial advantage. 

anyone know what's going on with Marist? NBC/Marist said they'd be doing a bunch of surveys but they haven't done any state polls since like what, early Sept?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Marist has become one of the best pollsters for Republicans due to their methodology. In a year when most undecideds are young, independent, POC, and Trump disapprovers, their refusal to push them gives Republican candidates an artificial advantage. 

anyone know what's going on with Marist? NBC/Marist said they'd be doing a bunch of surveys but they haven't done any state polls since like what, early Sept?

Arghhh!!! I meant Sienna. I'm still confusing them two because of their collaboration with NYT. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Marist has become one of the best pollsters for Republicans due to their methodology. In a year when most undecideds are young, independent, POC, and Trump disapprovers, their refusal to push them gives Republican candidates an artificial advantage. 

anyone know what's going on with Marist? NBC/Marist said they'd be doing a bunch of surveys but they haven't done any state polls since like what, early Sept?

Arghhh!!! I meant Sienna. I'm still confusing them two because of their collaboration with NYT. 

Siena*, Lyndon! (GeorgiaModerate will yell at you lol). 

[Skye]

MI, NV, NC to follow.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320711092532858885/photo/1

[MillennialModerate]

What time is Marquette

[wbrocks67]

What time is Marquette

They're usually around 1:15pm EST

[wbrocks67]

MI, NV, NC to follow.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320711092532858885/photo/1

I assume PA will be among the last

[Skye]

MI, NV, NC to follow.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320711092532858885/photo/1

I assume PA will be among the last

If FL and PA aren't the final states they poll, what are they even doing.

[The Other Castro]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320759760107511808

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would be shocked if NYT showed anything better than a tie in TX for Biden. I have a feeling it'll be something "dissapointing" that everyone here will start freaking out over.

[ExSky]

I would be shocked if NYT showed anything better than a tie in TX for Biden. I have a feeling it'll be something "dissapointing" that everyone here will start freaking out over.

With the consistent under polling for Dems in Texas, all i want is something close. Trump+2 is a great result for Biden. The polling firms, even the great ones like NYT, still aren’t too great at Texas. NYT/Siena has Cruz +8 in October.

[wbrocks67]

I would be shocked if NYT showed anything better than a tie in TX for Biden. I have a feeling it'll be something "dissapointing" that everyone here will start freaking out over.

Or if Trump leads, it will still be like 45-43 and be rendered useless with the undecideds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would be shocked if NYT showed anything better than a tie in TX for Biden. I have a feeling it'll be something "dissapointing" that everyone here will start freaking out over.

With the consistent under polling for Dems in Texas, all i want is something close. Trump+2 is a great result for Biden. The polling firms, even the great ones like NYT, still aren’t too great at Texas. NYT/Siena has Cruz +8 in October.

Yeah, I pretty much agree with you. TX is a new swing state and it is very difficult to poll, which leads to polling that tends to be unreliable.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Rassy +1 head to head, NPV (48%-47%)

Rassy +6 approvals (52%-46%)

Along with Rassy polling good battle ground states.

Walls are closing in, Dems.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Rassy +6 approvals (52%-48%;

Math is off there, DTT. 

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Rassy +6 approvals (52%-48%;

Math is off there, DTT. 

Fixed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rassy +1 head to head, NPV (48%-47%)

Rassy +6 approvals (52%-46%)

Along with Rassy polling good battle ground states.

Walls are closing in, Dems.

Rassy is a very unreliable pollster. Cherry pick all you want but Biden is up by 9% nationally in the 538 aggregate of polls.

[BudgieForce]

Rassy +1 head to head, NPV (48%-47%)

Rassy +6 approvals (52%-46%)

Along with Rassy polling good battle ground states.

Walls are closing in, Dems.

I'm not judging, but putting all your faith in partisan polling firms with bad track records seems like a recipe for disappointment.