2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Young Conservative]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

damn it, this is like the one person who can take down Rose pretty easily.

yeah this is an amazing recruit. Great for the GOP image too. She's a star, and I expect Elise Stefanik's new PAC to absolutely DUMP money into supporting her.

[Young Conservative]

Though it's worth mentioning that if the trend of Dems way overperforming in special elections holds it could be a potential longshot. Just look at the results in KS-04 and SC-05 special elections vs. the general elections. Would almost certainly be a part term rental even if they did win it though.

Is the trend holding though? The GOP has already picked up three of four state legislative seats, including a Clinton seat in Connecticut.

[Young Conservative]

Though it's worth mentioning that if the trend of Dems way overperforming in special elections holds it could be a potential longshot. Just look at the results in KS-04 and SC-05 special elections vs. the general elections. Would almost certainly be a part term rental even if they did win it though.

Is the trend holding though? The GOP has already picked up three of four state legislative seats, including a Clinton seat in Connecticut.

how do you calculate “of four”? I thought there were five seats up for election in Connecticut alone.

Sorry, it was a typo. I meant three OR four.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

Safe to say Olson's the strongest candidate thus far here?

maybe, but she blatantly carpetbagged from 80 miles away.

Literally nobody cares about cross-district carpetbagging

This is utterly false.

[Young Conservative]

GOP are supposedly trying to get Ngyuen for CA48. I see no reason why her fate won't be similar that of Kim - and I actually like her. There are a few differences about the races and the districts, but the prevailing trends will still be the same.

Nguyen has represented more of the district before, hasn't she? And doesn't Nguyen have a reputation as a moderate already built up? And 2020 will almost certainly be a less democratic year than 2018. Those are some of the differences, I think.

[Young Conservative]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

[Young Conservative]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/republicans-identify-vulnerable-members-for-2020

NRCC patriot program. Weirdly enough Kenny Marchant isn't on here.

This either signals to me that Tom Emmer is extremely stupid or Marchant is retiring.

Its definitely the second one.

[Young Conservative]

Former Home Depot exec Lynne Homrich is the first Republican to file in GA-07.  There are currently four Democrats in the race.

Lots of GOP women running in 2020...

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1120327456634728449

Lol

Likely D————->Tilt D

Our recruitment is much better this cycle, but it’s coming from the wrong places

I would wager it is lean D, Evelynn Sanlinguine does not even seem like that great of a candidate though.

Why not exactly? Rauner won this district.

[Young Conservative]

LOL all Casten has to do is tie her to Rauner and he's safe for reelection.

Why would that be bad in a district Rauner won?

[Young Conservative]

Former CIA Officer and notorious anti-semite Valerie Plame running for NM-03:

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1126496160456134656?s=20

[Young Conservative]

Former CIA Officer and notorious anti-semite Valerie Plame running for NM-03:

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1126496160456134656?s=20

If you're going to mangle people's quotes, your should at least spell check the result.

My bad. I fixed it.

[Young Conservative]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

Lean D--> Tossup/Tilt R

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/Forrest4Trees/status/1136794746993561600

No idea if this is someones hope or a leak.

Ew

Davis Versus Roy is a safe R race that will suck up Texas Democratic money for a lost cause.

[Young Conservative]

Did Davis carpetbag down there?

I believe so. She used to represent a Dallas-Fort Worth state house district

[Young Conservative]

Big pharma lobbyist Amanda Makki announces challenge to Charlie Crist in FL-13. She recently moved from DC to Pinellas County. Horrible recruit for the GOP.

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2019/06/05/republican-amanda-makki-files-to-run-for-charlie-crists-congressional-seat/

Makki worked for Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski for seven years, specializing in health policy, and left in 2014 to become a lobbyist for Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk. In 2017, she joined the lobbying firm of K&L Gates and worked as a partner in their Washington, D.C. office.

Novo Nordisk is best known as the company that increased insulin prices by 700%.

LOL

Nobody wants her to run and she should have been thinking before she decided to work at Novo Nordisk to run for Congress.

By nobody you mean the NRCC?

Presumably, they mean nobody in Florida politics or the NRCC wanted her to run.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1138848739261526018?s=19

Likely R if she's the nominee...close to safe than lean.

[Young Conservative]

Democrat Max Rose raised 800k in Q2, 1 million in cash on hand in what will likely be an expensive battle for re-election.

https://twitter.com/cliff_michel/status/1148258198949892101?s=21

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/ajapko/status/1148257976643465217

The next Bill Nelson/totally anonymous, clearly.

Bill Nelson did fine in fundraising. That wasn’t his problem at all. Bad take.

[Young Conservative]

John James raises $1.5 million in 3 weeks, but headlines only say Peters out-raised him. (Seems biased)

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/11/peters-leads-gop-challenger-james-early-fundraising/1700727001/

Other Republican numbers:

Michelle Steel (CA-48) Raises $535k

Bill Hightower (AL-01) Raises $395k

Terry Neese (OK-05) Raises $185k and self funds 350k

Wesley Hunt (TX-07) Raises 500k

Ted Cruz raises $1.2 million, despite being off cycle and plans to be “heavily involved” in 2020 down-ballot

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2019/07/11/democrats-top-5-horde-donations-678438

Some Democratic numbers:

Harley Rouda (CA-48) Raised $774k

Lizzie Panell Fletcher (TX-07) Raised $565k

Some  of these numbers are from officially twitter accounts, didn’t want to link them all.

[Young Conservative]

Van Drew waking up and picking his game up, good sign.

https://twitter.com/BenJKest/status/1150871659810893824

He has too. He only won narrowly against a racist anti semite. He's probably the most vulnerable New Jersey Democrat after Andrew Kim.

Malinowski is pretty vulnerable. Kim definitely the most.

[Young Conservative]

Isn’t Valadao in debt up to his eye balls? I’m surprised he didn’t just cash out as a lobbyist or something. Seems like a poor decision

Yeah he was one of the poorest members of congress and even his farm was being repo’d iirc.

House rules prohibited himself from being involved with the daily operations of the farm, so this probably isnt on him. It was managed by his brothers.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/ReElectWittman/status/1153419011507535873

Shutting the retirement rumors down- he's running.

[Young Conservative]

Another House recruit: Sara Hart Weir (R) officially in against Rep. Sharice Davids (D) in KS-03

https://twitter.com/sarahartweir/status/1155858444047585280

Powerful statement decrying # of GOP women in Congress and defending those with preexisting conditions. Trying to present herself as the moderate independent voice relative to Sharice David’s, whom she called a “rubber yes stamp for Pelosi.”

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1155929898378072064

Only 2 of them hadn't raised double their R opponent: Cisneros (CA-39) and Horn (OK-5).

Isn't this at least somewhat misleading? Challengers haven't been in the race as long as their incumbents.