2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Theodore]

Big recruitment news across the board today...

https://twitter.com/wendydavis/status/1153280783383191552?

Carpetbagger, will lose.

This seat just moved to Safe R

[Politician]

Big recruitment news across the board today...

https://twitter.com/wendydavis/status/1153280783383191552?

Carpetbagger, will lose.

This seat just moved to Safe R

A bit extreme, but yeah, Lean R. Roy should be happy about this.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1153261184054956032?s=19

Big recruit but it's a tough district. Good would've had a tough challenge in her state house district which is more R than FL16, so it makes sense she's going for the higher office.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1153261184054956032?s=19

Big recruit but it's a tough district. Good would've had a tough challenge in her state house district which is more R than FL16, so it makes sense she's going for the higher office.

No her HD is more D friendly than this CD. Trump only won her HD by 4%

[InheritTheWind]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, the retirment is supposed to be Wittman in VA-01. What makes this interesting is that Confederate Corey is rumored to throw his hat back into the ring if the seat opens up so....

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

If Democrats control redistricting why wouldn’t they just make four Dem NOVA seats? Keeping Wexton’s seat roughly as is allows them to make vA-01 a lot bluer and put the entirety of PWC in that seat

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

Please, he will lose handily.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

If Democrats control redistricting why wouldn’t they just make four Dem NOVA seats? Keeping Wexton’s seat roughly as is allows them to make vA-01 a lot bluer and put the entirety of PWC in that seat

If Dems control redistricting they probably will go for 4 NOVA seats(actually 5 is pretty possible if Dems are willing to get ugly and not be in Titanium D districts) but if they pass a commission Wexton could be in a Trump +2 or 4 seat. However Whitman would get a Clinton +9 or +11.(Fairfax +arlington+Alexandria is just a bit more than 2 districts. If the commision decides to not combine Loudon and PWC you get a Trump seat from one of these.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

Please, he will lose handily.

Of course Josh Kraushaar, of all people, is bloating his chances.

Anyways, Wexton will win by at least 15 points.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

If Democrats control redistricting why wouldn’t they just make four Dem NOVA seats? Keeping Wexton’s seat roughly as is allows them to make vA-01 a lot bluer and put the entirety of PWC in that seat

If Dems control redistricting they probably will go for 4 NOVA seats(actually 5 is pretty possible if Dems are willing to get ugly and not be in Titanium D districts) but if they pass a commission Wexton could be in a Trump +2 or 4 seat. However Whitman would get a Clinton +9 or +11.(Fairfax +arlington+Alexandria is just a bit more than 2 districts. If the commision decides to not combine Loudon and PWC you get a Trump seat from one of these.

Wait, what do you mean? It's pretty easy to get four NOVA Dem seats that went for Clinton if you keep VA-10 as is (Frederick+Clarke+Winchester+Loudoun+Reston/heavily Dem western Fairfax will be roughly a Congressional seat based on population growth). Arlington+Alexandria+remainder of Fairfax is two seats. That leaves VA-01 to take all of PWC, Manassas, MPC all the way out to Fredericksburg. Both VA-10 and VA-01 would in that redraw would have easily voted for Clinton and have only gotten bluer since then.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

If Democrats control redistricting why wouldn’t they just make four Dem NOVA seats? Keeping Wexton’s seat roughly as is allows them to make vA-01 a lot bluer and put the entirety of PWC in that seat

If Dems control redistricting they probably will go for 4 NOVA seats(actually 5 is pretty possible if Dems are willing to get ugly and not be in Titanium D districts) but if they pass a commission Wexton could be in a Trump +2 or 4 seat. However Whitman would get a Clinton +9 or +11.(Fairfax +arlington+Alexandria is just a bit more than 2 districts. If the commision decides to not combine Loudon and PWC you get a Trump seat from one of these.

Wait, what do you mean? It's pretty easy to get four NOVA Dem seats that went for Clinton if you keep VA-10 as is (Frederick+Clarke+Winchester+Loudoun+Reston/heavily Dem western Fairfax will be roughly a Congressional seat based on population growth). Arlington+Alexandria+remainder of Fairfax is two seats. That leaves VA-01 to take all of PWC, Manassas, MPC all the way out to Fredericksburg. Both VA-10 and VA-01 would in that redraw would have easily voted for Clinton and have only gotten bluer since then.

It isn't actually if you want to Limit county splits to minimum like a commission based map would do.



The inner nova Districts are obviously Titanium D. The yellow district is Clinton +11 but the red district is Trump +4.5. Redistricting should shed a little bit of the red parts of the district to make it around Trump +1 to Trump +3? The red district is trending D but not massively. Obama lost it by 2 points compared to Clintons loss of +4 so thats around a 3 point D trend compared to the current VA 10th 16 point D trend. So anyway Id call the red district a tossup district. Compared to the current situation of the two Titanium D districts in NOVA along with the Safe D VA 10th but Safe R Va 1st(Even Corey Stewart won it) it is an improvement map for Democrats but not a major one.

Edit: the red is actually Trump +4 because I took the wrong screenshot. The red districts fairfax portion should be moved north from 70 30 D territory to around 55 40 and would look less ugly and less like an obtrusion.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1153261184054956032?s=19

Big recruit but it's a tough district. Good would've had a tough challenge in her state house district which is more R than FL16, so it makes sense she's going for the higher office.

No her HD is more D friendly than this CD. Trump only won her HD by 4%

Bad move IMO. Does she want to lose her state house seat?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m not interested in the hypothetical commission unless and until that commission is actually established, which I’m skeptical it will be by 2021. I’m more interested in what a hypothetical D trifecta will do, and I’d guess they’d draw a 10th similar to yours but fewer of the deep red counties given population explosion

Im saying population growth would let the 10th shed a lot of those red counties that you have attached to it. Loudoun ballooned in population this decade and can support like 60-70% of the new 10th%

[lfromnj]

I’m not interested in the hypothetical commission unless and until that commission is actually established, which I’m skeptical it will be by 2021. I’m more interested in what a hypothetical D trifecta will do, and I’d guess they’d draw a 10th similar to yours but fewer of the deep red counties given population explosion

Im saying population growth would let the 10th shed a lot of those red counties that you have attached to it. Loudoun ballooned in population this decade and can support like 60-70% of the new 10th%

Loudon did grow but DRA virginia is 2016 Census estimates so 60% of the population trend has already been accounted for.  Actually just did some population calculations with 2019 data which is basically 2020 and you should get around a Trump +1.5 district by shedding around 80k people Trump +1 is probably what it should be. But You aren't getting 4 NOVA districts in a commission based map. Id say a commission as of now is 50/50. Again its not possible to have a 4th Safe D district in NOVA without cracking Fairfax.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m not interested in the hypothetical commission unless and until that commission is actually established, which I’m skeptical it will be by 2021. I’m more interested in what a hypothetical D trifecta will do, and I’d guess they’d draw a 10th similar to yours but fewer of the deep red counties given population explosion

Im saying population growth would let the 10th shed a lot of those red counties that you have attached to it. Loudoun ballooned in population this decade and can support like 60-70% of the new 10th%

Loudon did grow but DRA virginia is 2016 Census estimates so 60% of the population trend has already been accounted for.  Actually just did some population calculations with 2019 data which is basically 2020 and you should get around a Trump +1.5 district by shedding around 80k people Trump +1 is probably what it should be. But You aren't getting 4 NOVA districts in a commission based map. Id say a commission as of now is 50/50. Again its not possible to have a 4th Safe D district in NOVA without cracking Fairfax.

A Trump+1 Loudoun based seat will almost definitely be voting against him in 2020, and probably won’t even be close, so while it probably wouldn’t be Safe D starting out after redistricting, it’d probably have a bluish his to it, and will get harder and harder for the GOP to win as the decade passes on.

But again, I reject the premise that a commission will draw the map. That is pretty unlikely to happen unless VA Dems want to shoot themseves in the foot

[lfromnj]

I’m not interested in the hypothetical commission unless and until that commission is actually established, which I’m skeptical it will be by 2021. I’m more interested in what a hypothetical D trifecta will do, and I’d guess they’d draw a 10th similar to yours but fewer of the deep red counties given population explosion

Im saying population growth would let the 10th shed a lot of those red counties that you have attached to it. Loudoun ballooned in population this decade and can support like 60-70% of the new 10th%

Loudon did grow but DRA virginia is 2016 Census estimates so 60% of the population trend has already been accounted for.  Actually just did some population calculations with 2019 data which is basically 2020 and you should get around a Trump +1.5 district by shedding around 80k people Trump +1 is probably what it should be. But You aren't getting 4 NOVA districts in a commission based map. Id say a commission as of now is 50/50. Again its not possible to have a 4th Safe D district in NOVA without cracking Fairfax.

A Trump+1 Loudoun based seat will almost definitely be voting against him in 2020, and probably won’t even be close, so while it probably wouldn’t be Safe D starting out after redistricting, it’d probably have a bluish his to it, and will get harder and harder for the GOP to win as the decade passes on.

But again, I reject the premise that a commission will draw the map. That is pretty unlikely to happen unless VA Dems want to shoot themseves in the foot

But literally half the county would be rurals which are also Trending R. The district wouldnt be zooming left. Trump would probably lose it but in a D midterm it isn't safe at all lol. Also never underestimate a parties ability to shoot themselves in the foot. See Emmanuel Cleaver.

[Nyvin]

Anyway, the retirment is supposed to be Wittman in VA-01. What makes this interesting is that Confederate Corey is rumored to throw his hat back into the ring if the seat opens up so....

Wittman is only 60.   He must hate being in the minority I guess.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It is pretty impressive how well Democratic House recruiting is going, even in reach seats like CO-3, MI-6, FL-16, PA-10, AZ-6, and Montana.

Republicans are still struggling to land decent candidates in a ton of Democratic seats that Trump won.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/ReElectWittman/status/1153419011507535873

Shutting the retirement rumors down- he's running.

[Pollster]

McLaughlin poll has Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leading Irina Vilariño 45-33, Curbelo leads DMP 45-42

[Oryxslayer]

McLaughlin poll has Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leading Irina Vilariño 45-33, Curbelo leads DMP 45-42

This admittedly funny McLaughlin Poll comes as curbelo says he won't run in 2020.

[Gracile]

FL-26 is Safe D.