2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Gracile]

MI: John James (R) is being recruited by both the House and Senate -

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1126804503557230593

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

MI: John James (R) is being recruited by both the House and Senate -

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1126804503557230593

If he ran for the House, which District would it be?

[Gracile]

MI: John James (R) is being recruited by both the House and Senate -

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1126804503557230593

If he ran for the House, which District would it be?

The consensus seems to be that he would run for MI-11.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

MI: John James (R) is being recruited by both the House and Senate -

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1126804503557230593

Oh f#ck, hopefully he runs for MI 11 so we get to at least save Peters, but I think he is gonna go for senate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MI: John James (R) is being recruited by both the House and Senate -

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1126804503557230593

Oh f#ck, hopefully he runs for MI 11 so we get to at least save Peters, but I think he is gonna go for senate.

He’ll lose either way. 

[UncleSam]

I’ll bet he goes for senate but it won’t be more than a toss up if he does - if he loses then he will have a tough time running again so honestly Dems might prefer he goes for Senate so Peters can have a chance to knock him out of the ring.

If he goes for Mi-11 he would be a favorite imo - he has big name recognition, would clear the field, and will probably run at least even with Trump in the district.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I’ll bet he goes for senate but it won’t be more than a toss up if he does - if he loses then he will have a tough time running again so honestly Dems might prefer he goes for Senate so Peters can have a chance to knock him out of the ring.

If he goes for Mi-11 he would be a favorite imo - he has big name recognition, would clear the field, and will probably run at least even with Trump in the district.

He literally lost the current borders of MI-11 against Stabenow, and Stevens ran ahead of Stabenow. He would be the underdog regardless of where he runs. Trump will probably lose MI-11 in 2020 as well.

[UncleSam]

I’ll bet he goes for senate but it won’t be more than a toss up if he does - if he loses then he will have a tough time running again so honestly Dems might prefer he goes for Senate so Peters can have a chance to knock him out of the ring.

If he goes for Mi-11 he would be a favorite imo - he has big name recognition, would clear the field, and will probably run at least even with Trump in the district.

He literally lost the current borders of MI-11 against Stabenow, and Stevens ran ahead of Stabenow. He would be the underdog regardless of where he runs. Trump will probably lose MI-11 in 2020 as well.

In a D+8 wave year against an entrenched incumbent. I know that you seriously believe the Dems will win the presidency by 15 points in 2020 but not all of us live in fantasy land. If you think Trump is within three in Michigan (as I think he will be), James would most certainly win MI-11 and would be roughly a toss up in the senate.

[IceSpear]

I’ll bet he goes for senate but it won’t be more than a toss up if he does - if he loses then he will have a tough time running again so honestly Dems might prefer he goes for Senate so Peters can have a chance to knock him out of the ring.

If he goes for Mi-11 he would be a favorite imo - he has big name recognition, would clear the field, and will probably run at least even with Trump in the district.

He literally lost the current borders of MI-11 against Stabenow, and Stevens ran ahead of Stabenow. He would be the underdog regardless of where he runs. Trump will probably lose MI-11 in 2020 as well.

In a D+8 wave year against an entrenched incumbent. I know that you seriously believe the Dems will win the presidency by 15 points in 2020 but not all of us live in fantasy land. If you think Trump is within three in Michigan (as I think he will be), James would most certainly win MI-11 and would be roughly a toss up in the senate.

Uh, didn't you see his sig? It's 12 points, not 15.

[Brittain33]

I’ll bet he goes for senate but it won’t be more than a toss up if he does - if he loses then he will have a tough time running again so honestly Dems might prefer he goes for Senate so Peters can have a chance to knock him out of the ring.

If he goes for Mi-11 he would be a favorite imo - he has big name recognition, would clear the field, and will probably run at least even with Trump in the district.

He literally lost the current borders of MI-11 against Stabenow, and Stevens ran ahead of Stabenow. He would be the underdog regardless of where he runs. Trump will probably lose MI-11 in 2020 as well.

In a D+8 wave year against an entrenched incumbent. I know that you seriously believe the Dems will win the presidency by 15 points in 2020 but not all of us live in fantasy land. If you think Trump is within three in Michigan (as I think he will be), James would most certainly win MI-11 and would be roughly a toss up in the senate.

If MI swings back to Trump from the 2018 shellacking Republicans took, it won't be in an upscale, highly educated district like MI-11 unless Sanders is the nominee.

[UncleSam]

I’ll bet he goes for senate but it won’t be more than a toss up if he does - if he loses then he will have a tough time running again so honestly Dems might prefer he goes for Senate so Peters can have a chance to knock him out of the ring.

If he goes for Mi-11 he would be a favorite imo - he has big name recognition, would clear the field, and will probably run at least even with Trump in the district.

He literally lost the current borders of MI-11 against Stabenow, and Stevens ran ahead of Stabenow. He would be the underdog regardless of where he runs. Trump will probably lose MI-11 in 2020 as well.

In a D+8 wave year against an entrenched incumbent. I know that you seriously believe the Dems will win the presidency by 15 points in 2020 but not all of us live in fantasy land. If you think Trump is within three in Michigan (as I think he will be), James would most certainly win MI-11 and would be roughly a toss up in the senate.

If MI swings back to Trump from the 2018 shellacking Republicans took, it won't be in an upscale, highly educated district like MI-11 unless Sanders is the nominee.

It’ll be everything lol. Trump winning MI-11 is the most recent presidential baseline in this district. I agree that it probably will be better for Ds than it was in 2016 but there’s a reason I merely said favorite and not strong favorite or anything. If James is the nominee it is hard to argue Mi-11 isn’t tilt R.

[Oryxslayer]

Lets also remember that the courts threw out basically all of Michigans districts not bordering Lake Michigan, so there is an outside chance everyone gets reshuffled. James might end going for a new MI-08 Republican north suburb seat, while Slotkin hops over to what wuld come to occupy Lansing and Stevens gets a much friendlier MI-11. But it is an outside chance.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1127958636150394881

lol

[Gracile]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

Looks like that 2018 Governor number is to the right of the District as a whole.

[Gracile]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

Looks like that 2018 Governor number is to the right of the District as a whole.

Hubbell won IA-01 by 1.3%.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

Looks like that 2018 Governor number is to the right of the District as a whole.

Hubbell won IA-01 by 1.3%.

Oh, for some reason, I thought it was more like 3.5%.
I incorrectly thought Hubbell won IA-01 by about the same margin Trump won IA-01 and IA-03, while Hubbell won IA-02 and IA-03 by about the same margin Trump won IA-02.

[Young Conservative]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

Lean D--> Tossup/Tilt R

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

Tilt D ----> Tilt D

[S019]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

IA-01: Tossup----->Lean R

[Gracile]

TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D) officially in

https://mobile.twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1128255587161182209

She lost to Congressman Will Hurd (R) by 926 votes in 2018.

[UncleSam]

TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D) officially in

https://mobile.twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1128255587161182209

She lost to Congressman Will Hurd (R) by 926 votes in 2018.

Losing in a D+8 wave year doesn’t bode well for her in 2020, even with Trump near-certain to lose this district (and likely by double digits). Dems probably have much better candidates.

[Yang2020]

TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D) officially in

https://mobile.twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1128255587161182209

She lost to Congressman Will Hurd (R) by 926 votes in 2018.

Boy we're getting a lot of possible 2018 rematches here. Why though?

[Gracile]

TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D) officially in

https://mobile.twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1128255587161182209

She lost to Congressman Will Hurd (R) by 926 votes in 2018.

Boy we're getting a lot of possible 2018 rematches here. Why though?

The ones who came pretty close in 2018 and will likely still have a favorable environment in 2020 (Ortiz Jones, Claudia Tenney, those second tier TX races that weren't given serious attention) I can understand. The ones who really underperformed expectations or will not face a favorable environment in 2020 (Young Kim, Nate McMurray, Perry Gershon, etc) are deluding themselves.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1128739057075466241