Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Some more devastating news on the southern front, the Russians have reached Zaporizhzia. Even worse, Mariupol has been completely surrounded and is now sieged from land.

My best guess is that the Russians are attempting to reach Dnipro, but maybe they are going to try and cross the river? No matter what the situation in Southeastern Ukraine has been deteriorating rapidly.

They have two Dnieper crossings already.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1498356649907703809

Putin is about the preside over the biggest economic shamble in decades, I guess. Hopefully this will be enough for the elites to take him out.

[Storr]

There's a good chance this is propaganda, but damn it really pulls at your feelings:
(there's some differences in the two translations, but the gist of the conversation is the same.)

https://twitter.com/VeraMBergen/status/1498334352870150146?s=20&t=yS_bFZmTf1...
https://twitter.com/space_osint/status/1498375018664931329?s=20&t=yDDLtpcVlI...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When Bolsonaro and Maduro are on the same side, then you know it's the wrong side.

[President Johnson]

Boom!

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498377373422657542

[Middle-aged Europe]

Boom!

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498377373422657542

Russia doesn't need Crimea anymore if it can't cross the Bosporus.

[It’s so Joever]

When Bolsonaro and Maduro are on the same side, then you know it's the wrong side.

Wow it's like they want to prove horseshoe theory.

[BlueSwan]

I figured that I would risk losing a few IQ points, so I have been visiting the main Qanon forum again over the last few days. Of course they are 100% behind Putin like the fascists that they are. Infact, criticizing Putin gets you banned. And of course there are a bunch of loony theories going around. One popular one is that there is infact no war. Another is that Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump are working together behind the scenes to take down the cabal.

There was ONE bright spot though and this was that some of them were complaining about how their MAGA friends were "falling for the mainstream media lies about the war". So I guess this means that possibly some Trumpist are having a bit of a wakeup call, even though I am not very optimistic about that.

[Vosem]

I sort of wonder if the Suez crisis felt a little like this in real time. On one hand, the stakes here are obviously higher due to the extreme irrationality of the aggressor power. On the other hand, at least in this case there was already a general sense among sane people that Russia's glory days were behind it, whereas my understanding of the events of 1956 was that many people still thought of Britain as a more or less equal partner to the USA and USSR until it tried to intervene in Egypt and got soundly thrashed by a bunch of pissed-off Arab nationalist boat pilots.

In the Suez Crisis it felt like the notion that Britain and France were yesterday's powers had the aspect of self-fulfilling prophecy to it, in that their military objectives were obtained easily but it was revealed that they could not operate without the backing of the United States, which insanely refused to support them. This time around it seems like plenty of sane observers, both within and without Russia (Samo Burja comes to mind immediately) had a very high opinion of the Russian military, but while it will probably end up winning, belief in its fundamental competency, both at the operational and propaganda levels, has been pretty much shattered.

For this to be similar to the Suez Crisis, Russia would've had to walk over Ukraine and then give them back their independence when China backstabbed them. It doesn't seem like that is what's happening (although any sane observer knows, after this, that inasmuch as a Sino-Russian partnership exists Russia is very much the junior partner, much as Britain was obviously the junior partner in an Anglo-American partnership after 1956).

[BlueSwan]

When Bolsonaro and Maduro are on the same side, then you know it's the wrong side.

Wait, what have they said?

[Person Man]

I sort of wonder if the Suez crisis felt a little like this in real time. On one hand, the stakes here are obviously higher due to the extreme irrationality of the aggressor power. On the other hand, at least in this case there was already a general sense among sane people that Russia's glory days were behind it, whereas my understanding of the events of 1956 was that many people still thought of Britain as a more or less equal partner to the USA and USSR until it tried to intervene in Egypt and got soundly thrashed by a bunch of pissed-off Arab nationalist boat pilots.

In the Suez Crisis it felt like the notion that Britain and France were yesterday's powers had the aspect of self-fulfilling prophecy to it, in that their military objectives were obtained easily but it was revealed that they could not operate without the backing of the United States, which insanely refused to support them. This time around it seems like plenty of sane observers, both within and without Russia (Samo Burja comes to mind immediately) had a very high opinion of the Russian military, but while it will probably end up winning, belief in its fundamental competency, both at the operational and propaganda levels, has been pretty much shattered.

For this to be similar to the Suez Crisis, Russia would've had to walk over Ukraine and then give them back their independence when China backstabbed them. It doesn't seem like that is what's happening (although any sane observer knows, after this, that inasmuch as a Sino-Russian partnership exists Russia is very much the junior partner, much as Britain was obviously the junior partner in an Anglo-American partnership after 1956).

Is that good or bad that Russia is falling into the orbit of China instead of vice versa?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When Bolsonaro and Maduro are on the same side, then you know it's the wrong side.

Wait, what have they said?

Bolsonaro refuses to implement any sanctions or condemn Russia. Maduro is obviously the same and says "NATO imperialism" forced Russia to invade.

[jaichind]

In an interview with Bloomberg, PM's Jamie Dimon said there are ways around sanctions involving the SWIFT messaging system.

“There are a lot of workarounds for SWIFT, so there are different tools we use for different reasons, the banks are talking with the government so everyone understands the issues, not because they’re for or against any particular thing.”

"The SWIFT sanctions mean companies can’t use the messaging system to do business with the Russian entities affected, but they can still do business with them"

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1498367473028112388

RUB is back down to around 109 from 100 earlier in the day.  No trading on Moscow Stock exchange just means the various Russian ETFs are proxies.  They have fallen some since this morning but still in roughly in the same area (a bit lower than March 2020 during COVID-19 and around the same as 2016).  All things equal sentiment is more negative now that the talks earlier today did not reach a deal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro is not on Russia's side. He just refuses to take Ukraine's side.
Maduro on the other hand...

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Ukrainian Samurai
Bottom text

https://mobile.twitter.com/ToughCookie222/status/1498390603687682051

[Mike88]

Bolsonaro is not on Russia's side. He just refuses to take Ukraine's side.
Maduro on the other hand...

Well, he basically criticized Ukraine for trusting the nation into the hands, his words, of a comedian. Bolsonaro should look at a mirror and see who's the "real comedian".

[AndyHogan14]

We, the Presidents of the EU member states: the Republic of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, the Republic of Estonia, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Poland, the Slovak Republic, and the Republic of Slovenia strongly believe that Ukraine deserves receiving an immediate EU accession perspective.

Therefore, we call on the EU Member States to consolidate highest political support to Ukraine and enable the EU institutions to conduct steps to immediately grant Ukraine a EU candidate country status and open the process of negotiations.

In this critical moment, we reiterate our full solidarity with Ukraine and its People.

Link: https://www.hrad.cz/en/for-media/press-releases/open-letter-by-presidents-in-support-of-ukraines-swift-candidacy-to-the-european-union-16316

Interesting, even if it is extremely unlikely to happen.

[Hash]

Ukrainian Samurai
Bottom text

https://mobile.twitter.com/ToughCookie222/status/1498390603687682051

That's the Ukrainian ambassador in Japan.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Bolsonaro is not on Russia's side. He just refuses to take Ukraine's side.
Maduro on the other hand...

‘Neutral’ and ‘On Russia’s side’ is quite a fine distinction these days.

[Middle-aged Europe]

We, the Presidents of the EU member states: the Republic of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, the Republic of Estonia, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Poland, the Slovak Republic, and the Republic of Slovenia strongly believe that Ukraine deserves receiving an immediate EU accession perspective.

Therefore, we call on the EU Member States to consolidate highest political support to Ukraine and enable the EU institutions to conduct steps to immediately grant Ukraine a EU candidate country status and open the process of negotiations.

In this critical moment, we reiterate our full solidarity with Ukraine and its People.

Link: https://www.hrad.cz/en/for-media/press-releases/open-letter-by-presidents-in-support-of-ukraines-swift-candidacy-to-the-european-union-16316

Interesting, even if it is extremely unlikely to happen.

Of course you can grant EU candidate status to Ukraine as these countries are calling for, although it would be a largely symbolic status for the time being. Turkey has had EU candidate status since 1999.

[KaiserDave]

-snip-

Heartbreaking
Putin's war is evil, and irredeemable.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SmokeSinseLoud/status/1498392086760017923

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro is not on Russia's side. He just refuses to take Ukraine's side.
Maduro on the other hand...

Well, he basically criticized Ukraine for trusting the nation into the hands, his words, of a comedian. Bolsonaro should look at a mirror and see who's the "real comedian".

Zelensky may be a real comedian, but he's also a real leader. Bolsonaro (or, as I like to nickname him, Bozonaro) is neither.

[jaichind]

https://www.wired.com/story/ukraine-chip-shortage-neon/

Russia’s War in Ukraine Could Spur Another Global Chip Shortage

ROC media are also indicating some concerns from the ROC chip industry.  The idea is Odessa has a large percentage of neon gas exports and a lot of the rest are actually in Russia.  If Russians capture Odessa they will be in a position to do a lot of damage to the world chip industry.