GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Adam Griffin]

What is the Republican plan to deal with inflation?

Republicans have a secret plan to fight inflation.

[SCNCmod]

Worth noting that only 40% of the nearly 78,000 non-November voters are white. Walker probably has at least a 25% edge with these new voters, likely even more than that. That 25% margin would be around a 20,000 vote net gain.

You mean Warnock has a 25% edge, right?

Ye you're right. Two W names is tricky lol

Does Warnock have an edge with White voters?  or just non-November White voters?  (I would think Walker has an edge with generic white voters)

[Adam Griffin]

Worth noting that only 40% of the nearly 78,000 non-November voters are white. Walker probably has at least a 25% edge with these new voters, likely even more than that. That 25% margin would be around a 20,000 vote net gain.

You mean Warnock has a 25% edge, right?

Ye you're right. Two W names is tricky lol

Does Warnock have an edge with White voters?  or just non-November White voters?  (I would think Walker has an edge with generic white voters)

As I noted a page or two back, among all EV 2022 primary voters who voted early in November, 57% voted in the GOP primary; 43% in the DEM primary. This was a bit over half of the overall EV, with a 14-point GOP advantage measured by primary participation - yet Warnock won overall EV by 10 points. Hard to imagine those who didn't vote in the primary weren't ~65% Warnock or more.

For the runoff, it's harder to say, but given that non-GE voters are disproportionately going to skew young, it wouldn't surprise me if the white non-GE runoff voters are well north of 40% Warnock. Skeptical Warnock has a net advantage among them, though.

[Spectator]

Worth noting that only 40% of the nearly 78,000 non-November voters are white. Walker probably has at least a 25% edge with these new voters, likely even more than that. That 25% margin would be around a 20,000 vote net gain.

You mean Warnock has a 25% edge, right?

Ye you're right. Two W names is tricky lol

Does Warnock have an edge with White voters?  or just non-November White voters?  (I would think Walker has an edge with generic white voters)

Sorry if there was any confusion. I meant to say Warnock should have at least a 25% advantage among the total pool of that 78k voters. Was only remarking about how the pool stood at only 40% white, which is considerably less than the statewide 55%.

[Spectator]

@Adam: When should we get an update on the number of returned and outstanding mail ballots from today?

[South Dakota Democrat]

What is the Republican plan to deal with inflation?

Republicans have a secret plan to fight inflation.

Hahaha yes, was hoping someone would bring that up.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

* Starts to count the number of pronouns in the quote, gives up *

"Why are certain unspecified people bringing pronouns in the military of this country? Pronouns?! What the heck is a pronoun. Herschel Walker is sick & tired of that pronoun stuff. Aren’t the people in this audience all sick & tired of that pronoun stuff? So why don’t Herschel Walker and the people who agree with him call this senator Former Senator? That’s the aforementioned senator's pronoun."

is what he should have said. Sick of these conservatives who don't practice what they preach.

You left a "him" in there, you woke liberal trash.

Dang. Fixed now.

There's still at least one "who". Relative pronouns are pronouns too, groomer.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JimJournalist/status/1599899128976269312

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1599217568803262464

[It’s so Joever]

I’m usually pessimistic but the early vote likes favorable for Warnock and the runoff turnout dynamics should honestly benefit him. I think this race is going to go for Warnock by around 2%.

[emailking]

That was funny actually. I watch kids movies all the time, just at home

[Adam Griffin]

@Adam: When should we get an update on the number of returned and outstanding mail ballots from today?

Hopefully, the SoS file will update sometime between 10PM and 12AM ET tonight, but almost every day during EV last week, nobody could update until the following morning because SoS didn't, either. Two main sources to check:

https://georgiavotes.com/ - tends to update the following morning now and/or once EV file gets too big and takes later for SoS to update (we're at that point now)

https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/ - generally updates within minutes of SoS *if* SoS file updates prior to midnight ET

The master absentee file - which doesn't have breakdowns easily visible by race/gender/age etc in them - can be found here (select "2022", "statewide" and "12/06/22 election": https://sos.ga.gov/page/voter-absentee-files

[Adam Griffin]

Doubtful this has any of the Monday ABM batch in it - probably the remainder from Sunday that county election boards processed early today - but:

An additional 4,812 votes received were received on Sunday and reported today (in addition to the 407 ABMs both processed and reported yesterday). The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,868,024 votes.

[Adam Griffin]

As of right now, 155,572 of the 224,008 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (69.44%).

I highly expect we'll see another 20-30k ballots counted with today's update, and perhaps another 15-20k tomorrow.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/JimJournalist/status/1599899128976269312

[emailking]

Someone at the restaurant Joy Reid is at said his main voting issue is to represent the vampires lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Someone at the restaurant Joy Reid is at said his main voting issue is to represent the vampires lol.

Chicago had the dead vote.  Georgia has the undead vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MurphyAJC/status/1599928885344636929

[Person Man]

Someone at the restaurant Joy Reid is at said his main voting issue is to represent the vampires lol.

Chicago had the dead vote.  Georgia has the undead vote.

We need someone up there who is compassionate, respects life, and who defend the rights of the undead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not Rs staying home it's white and blk females that voted R in red states including for Kemp that's voting for WARNOCK, the same moderate Rep females that put Katie Hobbs and Laura Kelly back into office

[KaiserDave]

Walker going out with all the glory and power of an elbow-fart.

[gf20202]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1599217568803262464

It's a decent closing message I guess.

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/MurphyAJC/status/1599928885344636929

Think of the numbers a Trump rally would have brought in! But this guy, Walker, was very ungrateful and asked him not to come. Sad!

[America Needs R'hllor]

I want Republicans in control of the house / Senate so we can at least have a chance of dealing with inflation, but without R’s holding the Senate, there is no point in voting for Walker. Trump contributed a decent amount to our current inflation (Biden more so, but I’m not giving Trump a pass) so I don’t trust him at all.

I sincerely hope you do not actually believe that and are just looking for an excuse to vote Republicans. If you think Republican economics (tax cuts) will solve inflation...

[GALeftist]

OK, officially election day, I'm going on the record. Walker could win, especially in such a polarized state, but it's hard to see a convincing path imo. Walker is a bad candidate as November showed. Runoffs probably benefit Democrats at this point. Little to no incentive for Rs who don't like Walker to hold their noses for him with Senate control decided. Black turnout has been strong relative to white turnout. Polls are generally pretty good in Georgia, they were good in November (if anything they overestimated Walker), and they almost uniformly show a Warnock edge. Clear Lean D imo.