2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[JerryArkansas]

AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

R 1,025,991 (+42,204)
D   983,787
O   711,727

I think Trump takes Florida and Arizona tonight. I am a little worried about the rust belt and North Carolina but it will be a lot closer then the rats think.

Tell that to Martha McSally who lost in 2018 with better numbers for her than that in Arizona.

[JerryArkansas]

Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

Jesus Christ either that or they are weighing the damn early vote so much that any strange results i.e. Selzer it gets amplified substantially. 

[JerryArkansas]

Also the AP has their own exit and finds the exact opposite that the Eddison one is finding. 

[JerryArkansas]

Biden winning Anderson? That has to be an error, right?

It has to be early vote

[JerryArkansas]

Isn't Indiana just election day?  When do they count the early vote?

[JerryArkansas]

Miami isn't reporting too many mail-ins.  It may not be as bad as it seems.

[JerryArkansas]

Once Again, MIAMI is ONLY IN-PERSON EARLY.  Stop freaking out until we get the damn mail in ballots.

[JerryArkansas]

Ohio's being fun right now. 

[JerryArkansas]

Biden will lose AZ, TX, and GA because he can't keep up with minorities.

Dude we know nothing like that yet, so shut up until that is actually happening, ok.

[JerryArkansas]

I am sorry Atlas. The bubble has burst.

What bubble?

[JerryArkansas]

VA is looking strange.

Trump might also win AZ and NV.

NM is going to be close.

Early vote isn't counted in Virginia. 

[JerryArkansas]

What is going on in Michigan.
Are numbers from the big cities not in yet?

Doesn’t Michigan count election day votes before early votes?

This.  This is the red mirage that was talked about.  Unless you all think Trump is going to win Wayne.

[JerryArkansas]

Why did New York Times call all of NE electoral votes for Trump?  NE-2 shouldn't be bad at all.

[JerryArkansas]

Moden, whats the CO exit poll say?

[JerryArkansas]

Oakland is now a tie at around 50% in.  Its getting better, but this is going to be a long fu cking week or two.

[JerryArkansas]

Biden can win without Michigan if he wins Arizona, remember that!

Jesus Christ, Michigan is far from over.  We have no early vote in yet, and as more comes in counties are getting closer and closer. 

[JerryArkansas]

Looking at PA, I'm feel ok about it because the red areas seem to have more in than the blue areas, along with the lack of early vote counting.

[JerryArkansas]

What is going on in NE-01? The NE Secretary of State website says Biden is up 5??

He is destroying it in Lincoln right now.

[JerryArkansas]

Doomers are pretty right so far.

You're pretty annoying so far.

This is the problem with Biden sycophants. Every time someone's proven right about their God-Emperor's deficiences, they're ignored and told to shut up.

Don’t see Biden losing this race with AZ called and MI/WI looking good. Or do I miss something?

Trump leads significantly in Pennsylvania and Michigan and with a smaller lead in Wisconsin.

Also Iowa looks confirmed for Trump, as does NC and Iowa.

How do you come to the conclusion that MI and WI look good?

Is it because they haven't counted mail in votes yet?

YES!! For the love of god has no one been paying attention to the past 5 months and how much mail ballots were going to be a difference maker this year

If you're relying on that to save Wisconsin, you've already lost.

Trump is leading by only 3% with only 50% in with most of Milwaukee and Madison out. How is that lost?!

Gee, I don't know, maybe the fact that this was the single biggest polling error in history?

Just say you're making it up to make yourself seem smarter and move on.

Also as an aside, fu ck the needle. 

[JerryArkansas]

Trump almost won Starr County, TX. The swing there is incredible. Dems in the Rio Grande congressional districts are up like 5% in districts they won by 20+ before.

Looking at the raw votes, its not that Dems lost any.  In some counties, in fact, they are up.  Its just a bunch of new voters came in that where way misjudged by everyone.

[JerryArkansas]

Biden is only up a little under 10k in Wisconsin. We'll see what happens.

Thats not counting the absentees out of Kenosha, which Biden won by 9 thousand.

[JerryArkansas]

I’m sorry but what are you guys seeing that gives Wisconsin to Biden?! 9k is not holding up

The remaining vote is basically all absentee votes which will either go slightly to Biden or heavily to Biden.

Even the Green Bay ones?

The city voted for Hillary in 2016.

So are the next big numbers gonna come out of Michigan?

Right now the Margin is Under a 100 Thousand, so any big county with a big drop could send it over the edge.  I'd expect either Wayne or Oakland will update later this morning.

[JerryArkansas]

Kenosha actually finished mail a while ago

https://twitter.com/CassidyWtv/status/1323916855556349954?s=19

I don’t think DDHQ has posted them yet, although correct me if I’m wrong.

They are posted, thats why he's up 19 thousand on their site.

[JerryArkansas]

I think there is also some confusion on what is counted vs what is reported.  Votes may be counted, but not yet reported into the system, waiting for a large amount to dump at once.

[JerryArkansas]

Wasserman is right.  There's definitely more than 130k outstanding from Philly.  Maybe that's the current number but some votes that have already been "counted" haven't been released or something.

It's implausible that every other county in PA had higher turnout except Philly, the Democratic base, which would have been heavily targeted by Dems.  Also, it's unlikely the vote would be stagnant from 2016 numbers when Philadelphia, unlike some of the other cities like Detroit, is actually growing in population and has a lot more voters now.

Even if Philadelphia is stagnant from 2016, Biden should net at least another 120-150k votes from there, right? Or am I being unrealistic?

If there is only 120k left, which I don't think it is that low,  he should net at worst 80k.