Texas megathread

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If you look at the Issues driving Texans right now it is the BORDER and Beto has No Plan at all to stop this Migration.

The most important Issue(s) are the Border and Inflation.

Republicans will not lose Texas. Beto had his chance in 2018. This will not be like 2018. Abbott ain't as unpopular as Cruz was.

What has Abbott done to stop it? He's been governor since 2015 and it's only gotten worse?

It's Joe Biden & Kamalas Fault particularly Harris. She was supposed to look at the Border.

O'Rourke wants AMNESTY for everyone crossing the border illegally. That is nuts.

Under O'Rourke no one would be vetted crossing into the border. Texas has a gazillion of cartels, drug dealers bringing harm to border communities.

So if it's the President's fault, what does the governor's race have to do with it?

[dw93]

Abbott is still on track to win, but this will likely end up being the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely be toast.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott is still on track to win, but this will likely end up being the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely be toast.

It doesn't matter if it's a Trump midterm it's still a 303 map it's gonna take a long time for MI, PA and WI to go R again and it will be difficult for TX to go D

The difference between 2010/14 and Today is Walker, Corbett and Synder won and Ds Evers, Shapiro and Whitmer are favorites

But upsets do happen AK and NY 19 went D with Biden JA low ratings so anything can happen on Eday

I even thought we were gonna lose both of them, but our superior VBM exceeds Rs

[Real Texan Politics]

Abbott is still on track to win, but this will likely end up being the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely be toast.

Abbott would still win even if Trump was re-elected, but maybe by a margin of like 6% rather than 10-15.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Data 4 Progress has it 50/45 Abbott not 60/40 Abbott is not winning by 20 pts, I am still watching TX and FL Ds are still are I know Rs thinks it's over and I blame Biden for having a broken border policy but it's still 5 weeks till Eday it's not over yet, even if we lose TX and FL, UT, NC, OH and WI are all very close and so is NV and we're gonna win PA, AZ and GA anyways Cook and Sabato have them D

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1582009390445473795

This is the grimmest thing I've seen in a while...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott and DeSantis and DeWine are safe

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Abbott is still on track to win, but this will likely end up being the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely be toast.

Abbott would still win even if Trump was re-elected, but maybe by a margin of like 6% rather than 10-15.

What? 2022 would be an absolute Democratic tsunami if Trump won.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Abbott is still on track to win, but this will likely end up being the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely be toast.

Abbott would still win even if Trump was re-elected, but maybe by a margin of like 6% rather than 10-15.

There's a lot of unjustified Dem hopium around Beto. Given the way the national environment is moving very rapidly towards Rs, I don't really think anything less than a 10 point Abbott win is in the cards the way things stand at this moment. I'm sticking with my 12 point prediction though it could easily get slightly better or worse for Beto in the next 20 days.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Abbott is still on track to win, but this will likely end up being the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely be toast.

Abbott would still win even if Trump was re-elected, but maybe by a margin of like 6% rather than 10-15.

There's a lot of unjustified Dem hopium around Beto. Given the way the national environment is moving very rapidly towards Rs, I don't really think anything less than a 10 point Abbott win is in the cards the way things stand at this moment. I'm sticking with my 12 point prediction though it could easily get slightly better or worse for Beto in the next 20 days.

You wouldn't know it reading the Texas 2022 threads on here. 95% of those (and this one) are just folks going on ad nauseum about how Beto is going to lose.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1582009390445473795

This is the grimmest thing I've seen in a while...

Is this really the smartest thing to send to parents right before an election?

https://twitter.com/iamofdaniel/status/1582404936502870019?s=20&t=hJE5GqpWWJ...

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Beto somehow pulls the upset, that will be the reason why. 

[bagelman]

I'm sticking with my metaphorical guns regarding a mid single digit win for Abbott. I'm not convinced that the Trends will come to a screeching halt to allow Abbott a 2018 or 2014 style win. Beto is unlikely to actually win of course, but Texas is not Arkansas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's bad politics for Abbott to pass a law undermining Second Amendment rights (in the eyes of his base at least) through the legislature. He at least understands what his base wants.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX and FL flips if Ds won the H that's the probability, there is no way TX and FL flips if Ds fail in Winnipeg the H but anything is possible

[PoliticsWatcher1]

Abbott will win comfortably.

My eyes are scorching from this hot take

I wasn’t wrong though.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Bumping this for the lean Abbott discourse.

[Nyvin]

Texas Republicans are proposing a state constitutional amendment that would make statewide elections determined by which candidate wins a majority of Texas counties -

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/05/25/texas-republican-party-convention-platform/

Perhaps the most consequential plank calls for a constitutional amendment to require that candidates for statewide office carry a majority of Texas’ 254 counties to win an election, a model similar to the U.S. electoral college.

Seems incredibly unconstitutional and also a very blatant VRA violation, also the Democrats can block it in both chambers (amendments require two-thirds vote in favor in Senate and House to get on the ballot).  

Still though, it shows Republicans aren't confident they'll be winning statewide much longer and the lengths they'll go to end democracy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Texas Republicans are proposing a state constitutional amendment that would make statewide elections determined by which candidate wins a majority of Texas counties -

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/05/25/texas-republican-party-convention-platform/

Perhaps the most consequential plank calls for a constitutional amendment to require that candidates for statewide office carry a majority of Texas’ 254 counties to win an election, a model similar to the U.S. electoral college.

Seems incredibly unconstitutional and also a very blatant VRA violation, also the Democrats can block it in both chambers (amendments require two-thirds vote in favor in Senate and House to get on the ballot).  

Still though, it shows Republicans aren't confident they'll be winning statewide much longer and the lengths they'll go to end democracy.

Texas Republicans really are something else.

Texas Dems are so lucky they have such favorable geography - even a pretty extreme GOP State House gerrymander barely pushes the median seat to the right of the state. They really, *really*, should try to invest in flipping the State House by the end of the decade. In 2024 they should target seats like HD-108 and HD-112 which Biden probably carries in 2024.

I also feel like Democrats should message on just how extreme Texas Rs are considering how relatively close the state is in partisanship these days.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Texas Republicans are proposing a state constitutional amendment that would make statewide elections determined by which candidate wins a majority of Texas counties -

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/05/25/texas-republican-party-convention-platform/

Perhaps the most consequential plank calls for a constitutional amendment to require that candidates for statewide office carry a majority of Texas’ 254 counties to win an election, a model similar to the U.S. electoral college.

Seems incredibly unconstitutional and also a very blatant VRA violation, also the Democrats can block it in both chambers (amendments require two-thirds vote in favor in Senate and House to get on the ballot).  

Still though, it shows Republicans aren't confident they'll be winning statewide much longer and the lengths they'll go to end democracy.

Wouldn’t be the first time. A lot of states, especially in the south, have had system like that. Mississippi had it be a majority of state house seats. Talk about stacking the deck. It was in place till 2019.

Georgia had an even weird system which took down their first women representative elected in her won right

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad state Rep Thierry went down in her ultra safe D Houston area district. She got a lot of media for breaking with Dems to side with Rs on some culture war stuff around book bans and gender affirming care. Looking at her recent Twitter activity she genuinely seems like a possible plant type who could pull a Tricia Cotham, so I think we dodged a bullet.

[MargieCat]

Glad state Rep Thierry went down in her ultra safe D Houston area district. She got a lot of media for breaking with Dems to side with Rs on some culture war stuff around book bans and gender affirming care. Looking at her recent Twitter activity she genuinely seems like a possible plant type who could pull a Tricia Cotham, so I think we dodged a bullet.

Oddly enough, Shawn Theirry is following Georgia State Rep Mesha Mainor on X (and vice versa), who switched parties in a blue part of Atlanta. Mainor only got press after she switched parties. What are the odds that they knew each other before?

I truly believe Shawn Thierry was planning to switch parties. She may even do it before she leaves office.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad state Rep Thierry went down in her ultra safe D Houston area district. She got a lot of media for breaking with Dems to side with Rs on some culture war stuff around book bans and gender affirming care. Looking at her recent Twitter activity she genuinely seems like a possible plant type who could pull a Tricia Cotham, so I think we dodged a bullet.

Oddly enough, Shawn Theirry is following Georgia State Rep Mesha Mainor on X (and vice versa), who switched parties in a blue part of Atlanta. Mainor only got press after she switched parties. What are the odds that they knew each other before?

I truly believe Shawn Thierry was planning to switch parties. She may even do it before she leaves office.

Part of what I don’t understand is why were seemingly normal Texas Democrats kept endorsing and campaigning with her until the end  (I.e. Nicole Collier). Did literally no one from TX Dems check her Twitter or did they check and just not care? Makes me a little angry for State Dems because it should seem obvious she’s a liability interacting with all these right wing accounts.

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/HoustonChron/status/1796353678443487696