TX-GOV 2022: If TX GOP loses here, what next?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/campaign-report-texas-lost-cause-192606028.html

D's admit Beto has zero chance of beating Abbott, it's a lost cause now, I donated 3.00 to him that's it

[Spectator]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/campaign-report-texas-lost-cause-192606028.html

D's admit Beto has zero chance of beating Abbott, it's a lost cause now, I donated 3.00 to him that's it

O’Rourke was never going to win it, but keeping the race in single digits in a Trump midterm would just be further proof of Texas’s steady leftward trend that doesn’t appear to be slowing down much.

We will probably see a Democrat win a statewide race sometime before the decade is up.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Huge turnout for the beto rally at A&M

[Canis]

Huge turnout for the beto rally at A&M

My friends their right now, I'm glad A&M is a really conservative school! that's a good sign for Beto

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Huge turnout for the beto rally at A&M

My friends their right now, I'm glad A&M is a really conservative school! that's a good sign for Beto

I'm also there. They had to start turning people away cause it's full l.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I think worst case, Beto loses by about 10. My thoughts are that Dems floor in Texas is getting a little higher every cycle as Austin grows and minority voters in the cities are activated.

That however doesn't on it's own make this a competitive race.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/campaign-report-texas-lost-cause-192606028.html

D's admit Beto has zero chance of beating Abbott, it's a lost cause now, I donated 3.00 to him that's it

O’Rourke was never going to win it, but keeping the race in single digits in a Trump midterm would just be further proof of Texas’s steady leftward trend that doesn’t appear to be slowing down much.

We will probably see a Democrat win a statewide race sometime before the decade is up.

In theory that could happen this year with the AG race, though I'm not holding my breath.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/campaign-report-texas-lost-cause-192606028.html

D's admit Beto has zero chance of beating Abbott, it's a lost cause now, I donated 3.00 to him that's it

O’Rourke was never going to win it, but keeping the race in single digits in a Trump midterm would just be further proof of Texas’s steady leftward trend that doesn’t appear to be slowing down much.

We will probably see a Democrat win a statewide race sometime before the decade is up.

In theory that could happen this year with the AG race, though I'm not holding my breath.

It'll be interesting because while at face value Paxton is the most offensive on the GOP slate, Mike Collier, the Dem nominee has picked up several endorsements from people such as Kel Silger who literally represents a Trump + 50 State Senate seat (but is retiring; we haven't seen Garza get those endorsements though.

I would still rate both races at about Lean R, but it's hard for me to see Rs getting even Abbott levels of support in suburbs across the state.

The main issue for Texas Dems is outside some very specific suburbs, it doesn't seem like there are too many ticket splitters and of the ones who do exist, the vast majority split ticket in favor of Rs the lower down the ballot you get. And this sort of makes sense; most of Texas is EXTREMELY polarized and really the only areas that aren't are the suburbs.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Seems there's this unofficial quota where someone has to mention how TX-GOV won't flip on every page of the thread

Even in the other/smaller TX election thread, the quota still holds!

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1576024241191137280?s=46&t=uFtEHLH...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1576046563901595655?s=46&t=uFtEHLH1iYRgUY...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Coincidence, since Hurricane IAN, we have a better chance to win TX than FL

[Mr. Smith]

Huge turnout for the beto rally at A&M

Still more yard signs back in 2018, and conversely Abbot is more common than Cruz.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Huge turnout for the beto rally at A&M

Still more yard signs back in 2018, and conversely Abbot is more common than Cruz.

Haven't seen too many yard signs except at the gas station near campus that's completely decked out in them for local elections but I haven't really left campus much.

Did see one student wearing a Biden 2020 shirt which was rather suprising.

[2016]

Bye, Bye Beto O'Rourke. Abbott nailed Beto on about everything in the Debate.

I expect a Poll Bump for Abbott soon!

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Bye, Bye Beto O'Rourke. Abbott nailed Beto on about everything in the Debate.

I expect a Poll Bump for Abbott soon!

Did you even watch it ?

[Holmes]

Bye, Bye Beto O'Rourke. Abbott nailed Beto on about everything in the Debate.

I expect a Poll Bump for Abbott soon!

He really killed it when he said he'd give rape victims baby supplies.

[2016]

If you look at the Issues driving Texans right now it is the BORDER and Beto has No Plan at all to stop this Migration.

The most important Issue(s) are the Border and Inflation.

Republicans will not lose Texas. Beto had his chance in 2018. This will not be like 2018. Abbott ain't as unpopular as Cruz was.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes but it was clear that Beto won the Debate not Abbott and he didn't have a close EDay in 2018 he won by 9 pts it's closer than that 53/47 R +6 just like DeSantis beat a Socialist Gillum not Gwen Graham they are both favored but they are the prohibited fav like 2018 Abbott ran against Valdez and DeSantis ran against Gillum two bad candidates not naked Beto and Crist

I have it on my map as wave insurance some users don't care if their fav candidate wins and they have it wrong but I do

Like S019 he swears WI is safe R lol 1 pt Michels and 2 pt Johnson lead for crying out loud , it's okay for an R to say it's safe R but he supposed to be a D and supports R nut maps, just like Progressive Moderate has 54 R seats and McConnell concedes D's are gonna have at least 48 seats due to PA and AZ

[2016]

More people will vote on E-Day in 2022 compared to 2020.

Governor Abbotts Job Approval is still close to 50 % and in some Polls even above that. A Governor with over 50 % JA always wins Re-Election.

Name me an Incumbent Governor in recent Election Cycles who had a 50+ JA and lost his Race for Re-Election.

Hint: You won't find one!

More people voted in VA last year on E-Day compared to 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes if DUNLEAVY or Kemp fail to reach 50%, on EDay and get 49.5 they will be forced into a Runoff and Garza and Walker are very close to DUNLEAVY in ranked choice voting runoff and Abrams can certainly win a runoff with Kemp with Warnock beating Walker Warnock has lead in most polls those are two Govs that can lose reelectiom with close to 50% Approvals

DUNLEAVY is polling 43/27 for EDay and in state by state polls he is close to 50% that's why I changed AK to D due to ranked choice voting

[President Johnson]

I watched the first few minutes. Abbott basically just crying "Joe Biden! It's joe Biden's fault!", on everything.

However, I'd be surprised if that changes anything. He'll get reelected and most likely with a somewhat smaller margin than in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have to just watch 5 weeks till EDay, we don't need TX it's wave insurance some users don't know what that means it means we have the Senate but if we win red states it gives us more than 52 Senate seats to protect the Senate in 2024

For example if we win OH, FL, NC Rs won't be able to take over the Senate in 24 because WVA, OH and MT gives them 51 if we win 55 there is no way they can win the Sen so TX is wave insurance in case we won the H, it will just add more TX districts to D Total

But you can't update your R nut map on EDay, Rs don't care but D's make R nut maps too and they can be wrong especially on WI, OH, UT and NC Sen races if they put R victory

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If you look at the Issues driving Texans right now it is the BORDER and Beto has No Plan at all to stop this Migration.

The most important Issue(s) are the Border and Inflation.

Republicans will not lose Texas. Beto had his chance in 2018. This will not be like 2018. Abbott ain't as unpopular as Cruz was.

What has Abbott done to stop it? He's been governor since 2015 and it's only gotten worse?

[2016]

If you look at the Issues driving Texans right now it is the BORDER and Beto has No Plan at all to stop this Migration.

The most important Issue(s) are the Border and Inflation.

Republicans will not lose Texas. Beto had his chance in 2018. This will not be like 2018. Abbott ain't as unpopular as Cruz was.

What has Abbott done to stop it? He's been governor since 2015 and it's only gotten worse?

It's Joe Biden & Kamalas Fault particularly Harris. She was supposed to look at the Border.

O'Rourke wants AMNESTY for everyone crossing the border illegally. That is nuts.

Under O'Rourke no one would be vetted crossing into the border. Texas has a gazillion of cartels, drug dealers bringing harm to border communities.