TX-GOV 2022: If TX GOP loses here, what next?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I've been in Brazos county for the last two weeks and spent an earlier weak in Houston. The only republican signs have been for state legislature as well as judgeships. Not a single statewide republican sign even in this fairly red downballot county.

Beto signs are pretty common by comparison, I think I've seen about a dozen in college station.

The Aggie cult is going for Beto lmao

I've honestly have not talked much about politics at all since I got here except with my amily, in fact I think i've discussed french politics with my fellow french exchange students* than I have american politics. My family here moved from pakistan in the 1970's and are pretty conservative republicans except for my aunt who's voted presidentaly blue and downballot red the last 4 election.

*who are weirdly huge Pécresse Fans

[Mr. Smith]

I've been in Brazos county for the last two weeks and spent an earlier weak in Houston. The only republican signs have been for state legislature as well as judgeships. Not a single statewide republican sign even in this fairly red downballot county.

Beto signs are pretty common by comparison, I think I've seen about a dozen in college station.

But the McCaul signs are everywhere!

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I've been in Brazos county for the last two weeks and spent an earlier weak in Houston. The only republican signs have been for state legislature as well as judgeships. Not a single statewide republican sign even in this fairly red downballot county.

Beto signs are pretty common by comparison, I think I've seen about a dozen in college station.

But the McCaul signs are everywhere!

Real weird, the district isn't that competive this year.

[PoliticsWatcher1]

Abbott will win comfortably.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A colleague of mine just moved from SF to Houston and was a little distressed to see a ton of MAGA signs in her neighborhood.  Then she looked more closely and realized they were all for "Mothers Against Greg Abbott".

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Abbott is lucky
A Beto is his opponent
B Biden is President

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott is lucky
A Beto is his opponent
B Biden is President

No D's raised taxes in Reconciliation act it's not popular to raise TAXES

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Abbott is lucky
A Beto is his opponent
B Biden is President

Beto is an above average candidate, if it wasn't for his presidental campagin he would have been a great one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott is lucky
A Beto is his opponent
B Biden is President

Beto is an above average candidate, if it wasn't for his presidental campagin he would have been a great one.

I know I had it Lean D

Crist and Beto will win if D's win the H just watch in 60 days let's see what happens it's good to analyze but we don't know for sure what's gonna happen Rs were supposed to win NY 19

If this was a typical 2010 EDay we can say for sure who's gonna win but it's not the Approvals are debunked from state by state polls otherwise Rs would have won NY 19

MT AL and SD are now in play due to scandal Noem was up 42/34 last time and won 50/46, I know I put it Lean D last time

That's why it's called wave insurance in case D's win not automatic for either party

[windjammer]

If Beto loses, he could run against Ted Cruz!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Beto loses, he could run against Ted Cruz!

Pending the national environment in 24 he'd have a better shot at beating Cruz, so he definitely should.

Cruz isn't losing Rick Scott has a better shot at losing than Cruz

[Mr. Smith]

Abbott is lucky
A Beto is his opponent
B Biden is President

Beto is an above average candidate, if it wasn't for his presidental campagin he would have been a great one.

He's still a great one.

The problem is Biden won 2020. But if he can do more for the downballot and even out the odds in the bigger picture, it's still worth it.

[omar04]

At this point in time would Beto losing by less than 10% be a good performance? That's where the polling is putting him at right now.

[Politics Fan]

At this point in time would Beto losing by less than 10% be a good performance? That's where the polling is putting him at right now.

I think his bench mark is if he can match or beat Biden 2020 performance. If he can then I think the Texas gop should be very concerned.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this point in time would Beto losing by less than 10% be a good performance? That's where the polling is putting him at right now.

I think his bench mark is if he can match or beat Biden 2020 performance. If he can then I think the Texas gop should be very concerned.

I’ve always felt like the GOP has been under reacting to the potential of a longtime R stronghold they can’t win the EC without slipping away from them. If TX were to begin voting to the left of the nation by the end of the decade it’s very hard to find the electoral votes to make up for it. It seems like many on the GOP side very much take Tx for granted and believe favorable shifts in RGV will bail them out (even though that’s nowhere near enough on its own)

Like just imagine if Cali started zooming right and became a single digit state, even if Dems continue to win it they’d be scared as hell.

[omar04]

At this point in time would Beto losing by less than 10% be a good performance? That's where the polling is putting him at right now.

I think his bench mark is if he can match or beat Biden 2020 performance. If he can then I think the Texas gop should be very concerned.

I’ve always felt like the GOP has been under reacting to the potential of a longtime R stronghold they can’t win the EC without slipping away from them. If TX were to begin voting to the left of the nation by the end of the decade it’s very hard to find the electoral votes to make up for it. It seems like many on the GOP side very much take Tx for granted and believe favorable shifts in RGV will bail them out (even though that’s nowhere near enough on its own)

Like just imagine if Cali started zooming right and became a single digit state, even if Dems continue to win it they’d be scared as hell.

they're very dependent on population growth outrunning Democratic trends in exurbs https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1561728549693931522

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this point in time would Beto losing by less than 10% be a good performance? That's where the polling is putting him at right now.

I think his bench mark is if he can match or beat Biden 2020 performance. If he can then I think the Texas gop should be very concerned.

I’ve always felt like the GOP has been under reacting to the potential of a longtime R stronghold they can’t win the EC without slipping away from them. If TX were to begin voting to the left of the nation by the end of the decade it’s very hard to find the electoral votes to make up for it. It seems like many on the GOP side very much take Tx for granted and believe favorable shifts in RGV will bail them out (even though that’s nowhere near enough on its own)

Like just imagine if Cali started zooming right and became a single digit state, even if Dems continue to win it they’d be scared as hell.

they're very dependent on population growth outrunning Democratic trends in exurbs https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1561728549693931522

That doesn't seem like a good bet when many of the parts of the state's where Dems have net insane nubmers of votes are also growing very fast, specifically in Austin. Also a reminder that the only areas of the state that are shrinking are hyper Republican rural communities in the Pandhandle and stuff. The immediate inner-city parts of Dallas and Houston may not be growing as fast as their surrounding suburbs and exurbs but they're still in the positive.

[omar04]

At this point in time would Beto losing by less than 10% be a good performance? That's where the polling is putting him at right now.

I think his bench mark is if he can match or beat Biden 2020 performance. If he can then I think the Texas gop should be very concerned.

I’ve always felt like the GOP has been under reacting to the potential of a longtime R stronghold they can’t win the EC without slipping away from them. If TX were to begin voting to the left of the nation by the end of the decade it’s very hard to find the electoral votes to make up for it. It seems like many on the GOP side very much take Tx for granted and believe favorable shifts in RGV will bail them out (even though that’s nowhere near enough on its own)

Like just imagine if Cali started zooming right and became a single digit state, even if Dems continue to win it they’d be scared as hell.

they're very dependent on population growth outrunning Democratic trends in exurbs https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1561728549693931522

That doesn't seem like a good bet when many of the parts of the state's where Dems have net insane nubmers of votes are also growing very fast, specifically in Austin. Also a reminder that the only areas of the state that are shrinking are hyper Republican rural communities in the Pandhandle and stuff. The immediate inner-city parts of Dallas and Houston may not be growing as fast as their surrounding suburbs and exurbs but they're still in the positive.

yeah, the Democrats are in a very good place. I would be surprised if they didn't control the state house at least by the end of the decade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this point in time would Beto losing by less than 10% be a good performance? That's where the polling is putting him at right now.

I think his bench mark is if he can match or beat Biden 2020 performance. If he can then I think the Texas gop should be very concerned.

I’ve always felt like the GOP has been under reacting to the potential of a longtime R stronghold they can’t win the EC without slipping away from them. If TX were to begin voting to the left of the nation by the end of the decade it’s very hard to find the electoral votes to make up for it. It seems like many on the GOP side very much take Tx for granted and believe favorable shifts in RGV will bail them out (even though that’s nowhere near enough on its own)

Like just imagine if Cali started zooming right and became a single digit state, even if Dems continue to win it they’d be scared as hell.

they're very dependent on population growth outrunning Democratic trends in exurbs https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1561728549693931522

That doesn't seem like a good bet when many of the parts of the state's where Dems have net insane nubmers of votes are also growing very fast, specifically in Austin. Also a reminder that the only areas of the state that are shrinking are hyper Republican rural communities in the Pandhandle and stuff. The immediate inner-city parts of Dallas and Houston may not be growing as fast as their surrounding suburbs and exurbs but they're still in the positive.

yeah, the Democrats are in a very good place. I would be surprised if they didn't control the state house at least by the end of the decade.

Kudos to Dems for having such an effective distribution of voters. The median seat despite the gerrymander is still only like Trump + 7 and almost all of them are left shifting suburban districts getting more diverse by the day.

The main exception (which is very possible) is if the GOP is able to begin to outright win a lot of the seats in the greater McAllen area, which are all currently around Biden + 10-20

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Abbott will win comfortably.

My eyes are scorching from this hot take

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Given the National environment is pretty even, is there any reason to think this race is going to be less competitive than Beto's 2018 race was ? Abbots approval rating isn't that great and the trends driving Texas blue haven't exactly stopped. Not to mention it's a flash point regarding abortion which is driving democratic turnout

[MargieCat]

I've been in Brazos county for the last two weeks and spent an earlier weak in Houston. The only republican signs have been for state legislature as well as judgeships. Not a single statewide republican sign even in this fairly red downballot county.

Beto signs are pretty common by comparison, I think I've seen about a dozen in college station.

The Aggie cult is going for Beto lmao

Abbott did go to TU...

You mean t.u.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/jenmercieca/status/1574822760953663490

[wbrocks67]

New poll specifically on Latino voters (we need more of these!) has Beto +23. He beat Cruz by 27% in 2018.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1574817882365624321

[Calthrina950]

New poll specifically on Latino voters (we need more of these!) has Beto +23. He beat Cruz by 27% in 2018.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1574817882365624321

I'm curious to see how O'Rourke will perform in the RGV. I suspect he will do worse there than he did against Cruz, but better than Biden did in 2020. A performance similar to that of Hegar against Cornyn wouldn't surprise me.