TX-GOV 2022: If TX GOP loses here, what next?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I could see him having a decent shot at winning unless someone like one of the Castro brothers or Beto runs against him.

HELL YES, WE'RE GONNA TAKE YOUR AR-15 AND DESTROY THE DEMOCRAT'S CHANCES OF WINNING TEXAS!

I don't think he'd have a shot at beating Abbott unless people get really pissed at his COVID handling, but Beto ran an unapologetically progressive campaign in 2018 and he nearly won. He didn't pretend to be moderate

"Unapologetically progressive" != deliberately marketing stances on wedge issues that are electoral anathema. O'Rourke may not be finished, but to be successful in Texas will require a huge change in approach from his presidential bid and a preparation for it to feature in almost every single attack ad.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I could see him having a decent shot at winning unless someone like one of the Castro brothers or Beto runs against him.

HELL YES, WE'RE GONNA TAKE YOUR AR-15 AND DESTROY THE DEMOCRAT'S CHANCES OF WINNING TEXAS!

I don't think he'd have a shot at beating Abbott unless people get really pissed at his COVID handling, but Beto ran an unapologetically progressive campaign in 2018 and he nearly won. He didn't pretend to be moderate

"Unapologetically progressive" != deliberately marketing stances on wedge issues that are electoral anathema. O'Rourke may not be finished, but to be successful in Texas will require a huge change in approach from his presidential bid and a preparation for it to feature in almost every single attack ad.

Yes, his Presidential bid was undeniably disastrous and obviously he would need to rethink his strategy were he to ever run for any office again

[Left Wing]

Could Cuellar run for governor to avoid being primaried?

[Tekken_Guy]

A. Abbott is not losing if he runs again.

B. I am not at all sure Abbott runs again. He seems very interested in a 2024 Presidential bid.

A 2024 bid is all the more reason to run again and thereby remain more politically relevant. The only reason not to run again is if he has a Cabinet position or Cruz is expected to resign the Senate seat in 2024.

Abbott’s getting old and I doubt he wants to run for Senate. If Cruz does not run in 2024 then Crenshaw would probably clear the field quickly for the GOP nomination.

[The Mikado]

Could Cuellar run for governor to avoid being primaried?

No way he makes it through a statewide Dem primary, especially with a midterm primary electorate.

[Skill and Chance]

Could Cuellar run for governor to avoid being primaried?

No way he makes it through a statewide Dem primary, especially with a midterm primary electorate.

It's an open primary.  The more moderate candidate for gov in 2018 got 47% in the runoff, with the Hispanic vote firmly behind the more liberal winner.  If Cuellar can add South Texas to Andrew White's coalition (without losing too much ground in Houston, where White lived), he can most definitely win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how strong of a candidate would Cuellar be in GE?

[Kingpoleon]

Cuellar could definitely win a Democratic primary in Texas. He just beat a well-funded challenger with very minimal backing from the Texas establishment, and I imagine that if he can muster up allies for it, he could win the state primary. He would probably need the Castro’s backing, though.

[Left Wing]

how strong of a candidate would Cuellar be in GE?

definitely better than Lupe Valdez. He would get it within ten points in Biden midterm

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how strong of a candidate would Cuellar be in GE?

definitely better than Lupe Valdez. He would get it within ten points in Biden midterm

Could he viably run up the margins among Latinos?

[Left Wing]

how strong of a candidate would Cuellar be in GE?

definitely better than Lupe Valdez. He would get it within ten points in Biden midterm

Could he viably run up the margins among Latinos?

quite substantially I imagine. He bring in tons of conservative latinos that usually vote republican.

[Hillary Biden]

If Biden wins Democrats won't win anything in Texas until 2026. 30 years shutout of every statewide office. How pathetic.

[Continential]

If Biden wins Democrats won't win anything in Texas until 2026. 30 years shutout of every statewide office. How pathetic.

You do realize that the 1994 Democrats are nothing like Democrats now, as the average congressional Democrat in 1994 in Texas would be a Republican.

[Skill and Chance]

I will say this.  If Abbott runs and loses, it's an Arkansas 2014 situation and Texas is going to vote 60% for losing Dem presidential candidates soon.  He's the strongest of the statewide GOP by a mile, so I expect him to have a 3rd term if he wants it. 

[Los Angeles Swag Boss]

Wait are we really thinking about Abbott losing???

He has $32M cash on hand at the start of the year and an approval rating of 50%+

If you want to win statewide in Texas for 2022, look to the Lt. Gov race and the AG race, which have real chances of putting a win on the board.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

1 of the Castro Bros will eventually run for Gov in 2022 or Senate in 2024, if TX flips in 2020. Beto said he wont run for Gov, but if it flips, he will recruit a good challenger in either 2022 or 2024

[Lognog]

1 of the Castro Bros will eventually run for Gov in 2022 or Senate in 2024, if TX flips in 2020. Beto said he wont run for Gov, but if it flips, he will recruit a good challenger in either 2022 or 2024

yeah wouldn't be surprised to see julian take on cruz in 2024, unless a house seat opens up for him

[Galeel]

Wait are we really thinking about Abbott losing???

He has $32M cash on hand at the start of the year and an approval rating of 50%+

If you want to win statewide in Texas for 2022, look to the Lt. Gov race and the AG race, which have real chances of putting a win on the board.

It's not like it's impossible that he loses. We're still more than 2 years out. He'll probably win, but stranger things have happened.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Paxton and Patrick are the only beatable ones

[Heebie Jeebie]

2022 Predictions:

Governor:  Sylvester Turner
Lt. Governor:  Ron Nirenberg
Attorney General:  Vicente Gonzalez
Comptroller:  Eric Johnson

[MargieCat]

I think Abbott is most likely to win should he run again.

He might face a primary challenge from a more conservative republican. But it won't end well for the primary challenger.

Speaking of which, the Texas republican party needs to fire Allen West. He is causing lots of intra-party fighting and Abbott is the strongest on their bench. If West succeeds in getting his way and getting more extreme republicans to run, that might end up helping the democrats.

The best bet for democrats would be to run a Castro brother and try to get Beto-like fundraising. Still seems like an uphill battle against Abbott.

I also think that Paxton and Patrick will be more vulnerable than Abbott. But who knows if Paxton can even run again as all his skeletons came to light.

Perhaps MJ Hegar can run against Patrick.

[jimrtex]

I could see him having a decent shot at winning unless someone like one of the Castro brothers or Beto runs against him.

HELL YES, WE'RE GONNA TAKE YOUR AR-15 AND DESTROY THE DEMOCRAT'S CHANCES OF WINNING TEXAS!

The "Hell yes" was to cover that he went to a Virginia prep school, but I wonder if he had consulted with his wife?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I think Abbott is most likely to win should he run again.

He might face a primary challenge from a more conservative republican. But it won't end well for the primary challenger.

Speaking of which, the Texas republican party needs to fire Allen West. He is causing lots of intra-party fighting and Abbott is the strongest on their bench. If West succeeds in getting his way and getting more extreme republicans to run, that might end up helping the democrats.

The best bet for democrats would be to run a Castro brother and try to get Beto-like fundraising. Still seems like an uphill battle against Abbott.

I also think that Paxton and Patrick will be more vulnerable than Abbott. But who knows if Paxton can even run again as all his skeletons came to light.

Perhaps MJ Hegar can run against Patrick.

This, please, Texas, please.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

HEGAR will lose like Valdez did, she lost her Senate race by 10 pts.  The only ones that can win here are Castro's, but they are natl figures and may run for Prez in 2028. Losing in a 2022 Gov race would destroy their chances as being Prez

[EastwoodS]

Well, I think Abbott could have a closer call than expected, he will probably win, but he will be the last Republican governor of Texas for a while.

That’s hilarious. A Hilariously bad take. F.