Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just wanted to say I haven't posted here and don't expect to be, but thank everyone for the important updates, and respect to anyone here who's been calling out Putin's thuggish aggression and fighting Russian propaganda in this very thread. I don't have the emotional energy to do the same right now, but I want to make it clear where I stand. I'm in awe at the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people, and ashamed as a European that the EU isn't doing more to stand up to Putin. We should not be buying a single cent worth of Russian gas right now. I'll happily spend the next Winter in the cold if that's what it takes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is happening now in Ukraine is the genocide of the Ukrainian people. If we talk about me, everything is calm in my region, except for the shelling of military units. I have now signed up for territorial defense and am preparing to defend my country

You are a hero and an inspiration to us all. I can only hope I'll have half your courage if my country is ever under attack. Please stay alive, and good hunting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The US appears to give up on negotiating for the transfer of any Soviet jets and further argues that they wouldn’t be particularly useful: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60657155

It would have been much better if the various branches of the US government had communicated with each other before making overtures to Poland that they would consider too dangerous for their own country. If there was any chance of Poland making the transfer without US support, it is likely a lot smaller now that they know the US wouldn’t do it and would possibly abandon Poland in any conflict started over it.

John Kirby also claims the US is open to working with other allies to boost Ukraine’s air defences in other ways. Hopefully, this means medium-to-long range Soviet/Russian SAMs (and possibly Bulgaria’s Tochka ballistic missiles) - but signs of this are scant. The $13.6 billion budget should cover back-fills for the countries that would be giving theirs up.

This is absolutely vile an pathetic.

Of course, the EU is being just as vile and pathetic in refusing to cut off gas and oil imports. Small-minded, short-termist fecklessness all around. They claim to understand the threat, but they won't do what it takes to actually stop it before it reaches us. Just wonderful.

We have to hope and pray that the bravery of the Ukrainian people will make up for our own cowardice. Thankfully, they have that in spades. It's a disgrace that we're not doing our part, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I understand opposition to a no-fly zone. I understand that we don't want to actively initiate war with Russia. I don't necessarily agree with the logic, but I understand it.

What I don't understand is why we aren't doing LITERALLY EVERYTHING short of that to support Ukraine. That's the difference between prudence and cowardice.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I understand opposition to a no-fly zone. I understand that we don't want to actively initiate war with Russia. I don't necessarily agree with the logic, but I understand it.

What I don't understand is why we aren't doing LITERALLY EVERYTHING short of that to support Ukraine. That's the difference between prudence and cowardice.

Make a list of what the US should be doing but isn't.

Help send the f**king fighter jets??? We've been talking about it for the past 24 hours.

Also by "we" I'm also talking about European countries, to be clear.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Talks of open war against Russia are a red herring that plays right into the appeasers' hand, by shifting the conversation away from all the other things the US and Europe could be doing right now to support Ukraine but they don't do, including supplies of more advanced equipment (SAMs, fighter jets) and sanctions on Russian energy exports. Let's please keep the focus squarely on those.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really hope this creates enough momentum for a common European defense policy to be established.

Oh, and a common energy policy so we can wean ourselves off of Russia's oil and gas as fast as possible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It really takes a special kind of craven, hollow cynicism to look at this conflict and have "muh tribes fighting" be your whole takeaway. The best part is that these kinds of people think they are demonstrating a superior intellect and ability to "cut through the bullsh*t" and look at the cold, hard facts, when they're actually doing the opposite: whitewashing a situation that is as morally clear-cut as you can possibly find them in geopolitics with a series of facile platitudes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's also especially rich when people denigrate Ukrainian democracy as a corrupt sham, when their politics are precisely the kinds of politics that contribute to the erosion of democratic legitimacy in their own countries. And frankly, while Ukraine's political class is certainly plenty corrupt, I suspect that the emphasis on their corruption is largely a product of ethnic prejudice ("those Eastern Europeans are all so sleazy amirite?") along with the fact that a lot of the stuff that is called corruption in non-Western countries is legally tolerated or even plainly legal in Western countries (especially the US). The Ukrainian political class throughout these weeks has certainly shown more courage, dignity, and care for their own people than I've ever seen from the majority of Western politicians. Do you seriously expect that if the US was under a credible threat of invasion, many members of Congress would actually pick up a gun and fight?? Ted Cruz couldn't be assed to stay during a f**king snowstorm, there's no doubt he'd high-tail it before any tank has rolled in the vicinity.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Zelenskyy bans the biggest opposition party, will the EU reject UA admission request due to democratic backsliding?

Banning organizations that actively collaborate with a hostile power that's currently invading your country is perfectly consonant with democratic values.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Astounding. On the day of the Russian invasion, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) told Ukrainian ambassador Melnyk that cutting off Russia from SWIFT or providing arms for the defense of Ukraine would be "useless" because "you will only last a few hours", all while smiling politely. Lindner thought it would be necessary to already accept the idea that Ukraine would be ruled by a pro-Russian puppet regime. Melnyk calls it "the worst conversation I've had in my life".

Apart from the fact that publicizing this may not improve the bilateral German-Ukrainian relationship... this is not a good look at all for Lindner. And also not for Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD), who was apparently only concerned about her own image on the day of the invasion. Climate Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), however, seemed to genuinely care about the situation in Ukraine, according to Melnyk.

https://twitter.com/norazabel/status/1507775219162918919?s=20&t=DTw4ZWM8CI5L...

Absolutely shameful. If Lindner has any decency, he needs to resign in short order. If he refuses to, Scholz should ditch the FDP and just do another grand coalition (or GC+Greens).

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1509073284175994881

Amazing. With this stupid "pay in rubles" stunt (whose economic benefits would be marginal anyway) Russia might actually have forced Europe's hand into shutting off gas imports as it should have done from day 1.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What I read here makes me angry and sad at the same time. I do not know why you can not understand that the strategy of "not to provoke Russia" does not work. This strategy does not work at all, because it does not need to be provoked. If Putin decides to start a nuclear war, he will start it, regardless of whether you impose a no-fly zone, whether you provide Ukraine with fighters, or whether you provide Ukraine with tanks. In addition, no one is asking about the NFZ or NATO soldiers here. Nobody asks for it. Is it so difficult for you to provide fighter jets to Ukraine? Here's what you need. Is it so hard for you to do that? I am annoyed when some "experts" say that Ukraine does not need fighter jets, but Stinger instead. Ukraine knows better what it needs. Help Ukraine defeat Russia, because if Ukraine does not survive, you will be next. Ukraine is now fighting for the opportunity to exist as such, the opportunity to live freely on their land and a bright future for their children. But in addition, Ukraine is also fighting for values ​​and for your security. This is not just our war.

The West turned a blind eye to Russia's war crimes in Chechnya and continued to trade with it. The West turned a blind eye to the killings of oppositionists in Russia - and continued to trade with it. The West turned a blind eye to Russia's war in Georgia - and continued to trade with it. The West turned a blind eye to Russia's annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbass - and continued to trade with it. Yes, the West has now imposed unprecedented sanctions, but they are not enough. They are not enough to stop Russia - and you continue to trade with it. While Minister Lindner is worried that the "welfare of the people of Germany" will be affected, civilians are being killed in Ukraine.

Do you know that I will never forget? I will not forget the voice of a 5-year-old child who said, "Mom, why am I in so much pain? I behaved well" - and died in her mother's arms. I will never forget the raped girls aged 10-15 who were raped in front of the public. You can talk about it for a long time. And now I do not want to list all the war crimes of the Russian military. I just want to convey that by buying Russian energy, Western countries are financing the genocide of Ukrainians.

You can't imagine how hurt we are when another Western politician says, "We need to keep trading with Russia," or "both sides are to blame." You can't imagine how it hurts us when we are once again denied a certain type of weapon, which we really need. We have always felt part of Europe, we have always wanted to be with Europe. But now, for many Western politicians, Russian money is more expensive than the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians.

And lastly, the argument "Ukraine cannot be supported [in some way], because it will provoke a nuclear war - is absolutely immoral, because you are declaring the right of nuclear-weapon states to destroy other nations, to destroy other countries. There must be a limit to everything."

And as a girl from Mariupol said: "It's scary - it's not when you're afraid of nuclear war, it's scary - it's when you don't know how to explain to your younger brother, who is swollen with hunger, why his mother will never speak again."

P.S. I wrote using Google Translator, because I did not have time to write the text in English. Therefore, there may be errors in the wording of sentences

Really glad to hear from you, Andriy. I can't imagine what you're going through, and I'm dismayed that my country (and all of Europe, and the West, and really all democracies worldwide) aren't doing everything in their power to help. I just hope you know that many of us here know that you're fighting for all of us, and want to support you however we can.

Please take care of yourself, as much as you can.

[Antonio the Sixth]

4. Why the f--- should the US look to increase combat operations when we're already broke?

This is the American version of a Russian devushka crying about the end of Instagram while Ukrainians die.

Yeah, there are valid arguments against direct military involvement, but this is just plain disgusting. Frankly, any person who thinks like this is unworthy of living in a free society.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Keep in mind when ever people always make the point how a regime isnt the Nazis they fail to take into account that the Nazis wouldnt have become the Nazis if they were stopped in the in the late 1930s when the British/French had the ability to stop them.

If this was 1938-1939 I am sure there would be many posters who would say it would be crazy to compare the Nazis to Kaiser's Germany only to realize when it was too late(during the Fall of France) how big of a threat the Nazis really were and how evil they really were.

The lesson we learned from WW2 is that we should not wait for a regime to become the Nazis before taking action.

Most of the American intelligentsia (famously including the New York Times) and to a lesser extent the British and French throughout the 30s did in fact think that Nazis might be slightly unsavory characters but that they weren't as bad as their critics made them out to be and probably had some legitimate concerns, and that their critics were hand-wringing and being hyperbolic. Everything that's being said about Putin's Russia now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Comparisons with Nazi Germany are moot because the Russian state does not have the capacity to conquer all of Europe, and, right now, is getting somewhat shockingly clobbered about only a hundred miles from its own borders. In any event, as already noted, there are other historical analogies that are significantly more appropriate. It is a shame that people are not taught about Katyn in most Western education systems, but perhaps they will now.

What annoys me about these arguments is that they basically boil down to saying that you can't compare anyone to Nazis unless they're identical to Nazis in every way. Naturally, since the world has changed considerably in 80 years, there will probably never be any political project that's identical to the Nazis in every way. But that doesn't mean meaningful parallels can't be drawn. The current situation with Ukraine bears striking resemblance with the early phases of Nazi Germany's expansion (Czekoslovakia is the natural comparison, although thankfully it is true that democratic leaders have reacted significantly better this time than they did in 1938), and I think we'd be deliberately obtuse to ignore it. That doesn't mean that we're headed for the same outcome as we were that time, obviously, but it should make us aware of a range of potential long-term implications that this scenario carries - as well as, to put it bluntly, the way history will look down on those who made excuses or preached neutrality.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hungarians today were disgusting in what they overwhelmingly voted for even though they see full well what is happening in Ukraine and it’s clear they are not a legitimate country to be taken seriously ever again. I guess we need a reverse 1956!!!

Many of them actually didn't see it, because they're consuming nothing but Orban propaganda.

But yeah, still. So sad to see a country in the EU prove so blatantly that they don't deserve it, while on the outside we have a country fighting to the death for European values.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Keep in mind when ever people always make the point how a regime isnt the Nazis they fail to take into account that the Nazis wouldnt have become the Nazis if they were stopped in the in the late 1930s when the British/French had the ability to stop them.

If this was 1938-1939 I am sure there would be many posters who would say it would be crazy to compare the Nazis to Kaiser's Germany only to realize when it was too late(during the Fall of France) how big of a threat the Nazis really were and how evil they really were.

The lesson we learned from WW2 is that we should not wait for a regime to become the Nazis before taking action.

Most of the American intelligentsia (famously including the New York Times) and to a lesser extent the British and French throughout the 30s did in fact think that Nazis might be slightly unsavory characters but that they weren't as bad as their critics made them out to be and probably had some legitimate concerns, and that their critics were hand-wringing and being hyperbolic. Everything that's being said about Putin's Russia now.

I think a nice example of how mudance this phenomena was among the intelgientis even those who didn't consider themselves anti-semetic is this absolutely amazing Atlantic article from a collumist discussing their marriage interfaith marriage to a jew and the tension it has caused from 1939.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1939/01/i-married-a-jew/306262/

Of course we eventually come to Hitler, Ben and I. In the eyes of Ben, as in the eyes of all his people, Hitler stands for the Jewish equivalent of the Antichrist—a little, strutting monster whose sole purpose and pleasure in life is to flog, imprison, impoverish, humiliate, and plague Israel. Few history books trace the path of persecutions against the Jews as they have occurred throughout the ages. They have occurred in ancient Rome, Poland, Russia, Spain, England, and France, usually whenever Jewry becomes too numerous and too powerful, whenever it becomes, in the eyes of Gentiles, a threat, potential or actual, to Gentile supremacy. I try to tell Ben that Hitler is merely writing another page in a history that will continue so long as the status quo between Jews and Gentiles remains—a status that only the willing shoulders of both protagonists can remove.

But it is hard for Ben to take the long view. He looks upon Hitler as something malignantly unique, and it is no use trying to tell him that a hundred years hence the world will no more call Hitler a swine for expelling the Jews than it does Edward I of England, who did the same thing in the thirteenth century—an expulsion that remained in strict effect until the time of Cromwell, because a hundred years hence another country will be having its Jewish problem, unless…

Yep. This is who we enlightened Westerners were back then. Of course America also pioneered eugenics and practiced racial discrimination that Hitler viewed as a model to emulate. We're not quite brazen today, but the instinct to excuse the atrocities committed by didtant foreign regimes for the sake of convenience is still alive and well with us.

Gotta say though, good on The Atlantic for making this publicly available as an important historical record. It would be easy to just bury it to preserve their brand.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Hungary does veto the energy sanctions but the other 26 countries are on board, nothing would stop them from unilaterally enacting them on their own, right? I know as a European I'm supposed to know this stuff, but EU treaties are notoriously difficult.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bothsidesing a few rogue Ukrainian soldiers getting a bit too rowdy with POWs to Russia carrying on full-blown, systematized ethnic cleansing on civilian communities sure is... a take.

Keep it going. You're so smart and above the fray.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Green = Yes
Yellow = Abstain
Red = No
Grey = No vote

By my calculation, the red countries account for about 2,246,000,000 people.

Turkey voted Yes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1512202757163335687

Here's what Politico has to say on the matter.

A decision on the matter was initially expected this week. But it’s now in limbo as the Social Democrat chancellor — much to the frustration of his governing coalition partners — argues Germany should first reach a common position with Western allies on the subject before delivering such heavy military equipment, the officials said.

“We’re setting in motion everything that’s right and sensible,” the chancellor told the Bundestag on Wednesday when asked about tank deliveries. Yet Scholz added that it was important for him to coordinate among EU and NATO partners to ensure “that we provide such military support in the same way, and that no one is rushing ahead — including Germany.”

He added: “I believe that this is precisely an issue where it would be a grave mistake for Germany to take a special role and a special path.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/scholz-holds-up-german-tank-delivery-to-ukraine/

Absolutely vile. I hope the German press crucifies him tomorrow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1512202757163335687

Here's what Politico has to say on the matter.

A decision on the matter was initially expected this week. But it’s now in limbo as the Social Democrat chancellor — much to the frustration of his governing coalition partners — argues Germany should first reach a common position with Western allies on the subject before delivering such heavy military equipment, the officials said.

“We’re setting in motion everything that’s right and sensible,” the chancellor told the Bundestag on Wednesday when asked about tank deliveries. Yet Scholz added that it was important for him to coordinate among EU and NATO partners to ensure “that we provide such military support in the same way, and that no one is rushing ahead — including Germany.”

He added: “I believe that this is precisely an issue where it would be a grave mistake for Germany to take a special role and a special path.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/scholz-holds-up-german-tank-delivery-to-ukraine/

Absolutely vile. I hope the German press crucifies him tomorrow.

So far, German media tends to attack the government for the lack of a gas embargo but not so much for a lack of a tank delivery. I saw articles to the effect though that German tanks (due to issues of logistics and training of personnel) wouldn't be operational in the Ukrainian military until next winter anyway. This Politico article here mentions these issues too.

It's true however that being very cautious and taking things slow is often Olaf Scholz' standard mode of operation, not only when it comes to Ukraine but in general.

Correction: A new editorial by major center-left newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung argues in favor of delivering tanks to Ukraine "fast"

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/meinung/ukraine-krieg-panzer-russland-waffenlieferung-wladimir-putin-1.5563234?reduced=true

Good. Even if they will take some time to be operational, there is no excuse for further delays.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ukrainian army's numbers, so worth taking with a grain of salt. But even if there's some overcount, staggering numbers.

Slava Ukraini!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ukraine is using a bit of a ghoulish strategy as part of their asymmetrical IT warfare in an attempt to influence Russian public opinion against the Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine.

Not really sure how I feel about this from a moral perspective when it comes to public display of dead enemy combatants, plus "rules of war", without even going into Clearview as a company with all of their shady history even within the US of A with LEA and Domestic Protest Movements.

Ukrainian officials have run more than 8,600 facial recognition searches on dead or captured Russian soldiers in the 50 days since the war began, using the scans to identify bodies and contact hundreds of their families in what may be one of the most gruesome applications of the technology to date.

The country’s IT Army, a volunteer force of hackers and activists that takes its direction from the Ukrainian government, says it has used those identifications to inform families of the deaths of 582 Russians, including by sending them photos of the abandoned corpses.

The Ukrainians champion the use of face-scanning software from the U.S. tech firm Clearview AI as a brutal but effective way to stir up dissent inside Russia, discourage other fighters and hasten an end to a devastating war.

Clearview AI’s chief executive, Hoan Ton-That, told The Washington Post that more than 340 officials across five Ukrainian government agencies now can use its tool to run facial recognition searches whenever they want, free of charge.

Clearview employees now hold weekly, sometimes daily, training calls over Zoom with new police and military officials looking to gain access. Ton-That recounted several “‘oh, wow’ moments” as the Ukrainians witnessed how much data — including family photos, social media posts and relationship details — they could gather from a single cadaver scan.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/15/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-P53WP7UTMZHAFMXLUVFFE6AN5M

The gloating that is probably going on is grim, but the Russian government tendency to lie or simply not know about the fate of their soldiers means a lot of families are going to be worrying about their men being MIA unless someone else tells them what happened. Personally, I’d rather know.

Frankly, I don't give a sh*t if Ukrainians are being "ghoulish" in their information warfare right now, while Russia is literally attempting ethnic cleansing everywhere it can. Ukraine is justified in doing virtually anything to push them out.

The question of whether this is effective is another matter, but probably not one any of us can answer.