Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1504551175747784704?s=20&t=xZU0kT80...
More China stuff. Apparently the line from the censors is to avoid content that is clearly pro or anti Ukraine/Russia and just present the situation. Which matches what Bejing seems to be signaling: neutrality with the aim of exploiting the eventual outcome to its fullest.  

Yeah for all compucomp claiming to be a CCP hack he is being quite weird here. It seems his opinion is more pro Russia than anything. China rn is in a very strong position to just stay out of this and enjoy cheap Russian resources while not taking major relationship hits with the west. Compucomp is instead arguing for aid to Russia when that would cause actual relationship degradation. Now the US may be more hostile to China but China could definetely lose a lot of relation with the EU if they actively support Russia.

I'm aware that the situation is fluid and that China is adjusting its stance moving towards being more accommodating towards the West. Yesterday it was announced that China will work with the SEC to establish standards for Chinese firms to list in the US (disclaimer, I hold MCHI which went up 20% on this news), and while this has nothing to do with the war, this is a signal on China's attitude on it since with China the level of cooperation with the West is tightly correlated on everything. If you read my posts carefully I'm not expressing pro-Russian views but rather views opposing Western hegemony and bullying behavior; unlike the actual Russians here that got banned, I never made any comment on how Ukrainians don't deserve their own country, that they're a bunch of Nazis, defending Russia's conduct in the war, etc.

If our leaders judge that the right thing to do is to beat a retreat, back away from Russia, and repair relations with the West, then I'll suck it up and adjust my views since they know better than me. Sometimes one just has to accept an L. Up until last week or so the official stance of the Foreign Ministry was quite bellicose and anti-Western so I'm not the only one that has to make an adjustment. We'll see how the Biden-Xi call goes, if Biden really wants to encourage Xi down this path then he will retreat a bit on some of his other anti-China stances, or he can push Xi back towards Putin by not doing so.

Pretty sure you specifically argued that China should send aid to Russia. This makes no sense from a Chinese perspective as China is getting great deals from Russia. This is also the first event in a long time which has truly united the West. Seeing Germany go to 2% GDP spending on military spending finally is a huge step.  Meanwhile as it stands the US is generally quite anti China as a whole from either party but the EU is much more mixed. Trying to push the EU back towards the US is utterly idiotic. The only answer for wanting China to send aid to Russia is either to actually help Russia or literally owning the libs where liberal means the collective West as a whole.

After how the West has treated China for generations, you're damn right China wants to stick it to the West. This has even extended to how they have treated China during this war, almost as if it were a belligerent, as compared to India which has received kid gloves, despite the actions of their governments being the same. Of course China wants to support Russia to spite the West. There will be a day when China stands up and challenges the West rather than accommodating them, and honestly I'd rather see that sooner rather than later since it's tough to watch China get pushed around and bullied. Clearly the West is not interested in genuinely dealing with us on equal terms as a partner nation.

Well, the 21st century seems to mostly consist of neoliberals giving China everything it wants so that it's too powerful to stand up to. American Neoliberals seem very good at growing the Chinese economy.

[Frodo]

I knew it was bad, but I didn't realize just how short on manpower Russia really is:

Putin has committed 75 percent of Russia's total military to the Ukraine war, Pentagon estimates

"It's pretty clear that Russian generals are running out of time, ammunition, and manpower," CEPA's Hodges wrote. "There is no suggestion that the Russians have big units lurking in the woods somewhere," and "it's apparent that the notional 900,000 strength of the Russian military is a hollow number. " Russia will call up another 130,000 conscripts on April 1, he added, but while "the Ukrainian diaspora is flocking home to help the fight; Russians are not coming back home — and indeed, many are leaving to avoid Putin's fight."

[Middle-aged Europe]

I knew it was bad, but I didn't realize just how short on manpower Russia really is:

Putin has committed 75 percent of Russia's total military to the Ukraine war, Pentagon estimates

"It's pretty clear that Russian generals are running out of time, ammunition, and manpower," CEPA's Hodges wrote. "There is no suggestion that the Russians have big units lurking in the woods somewhere," and "it's apparent that the notional 900,000 strength of the Russian military is a hollow number. " Russia will call up another 130,000 conscripts on April 1, he added, but while "the Ukrainian diaspora is flocking home to help the fight; Russians are not coming back home — and indeed, many are leaving to avoid Putin's fight."

Bolded part: That's kind of the same problem the former Afghan National Army faced last year, except this time the Russians are the aggressors which makes it even more insane. They went to attack Ukraine with "nothing" and thought (well, at least Putin) that it was a sensible idea.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1504663688665604096

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1504551175747784704?s=20&t=xZU0kT80...
More China stuff. Apparently the line from the censors is to avoid content that is clearly pro or anti Ukraine/Russia and just present the situation. Which matches what Bejing seems to be signaling: neutrality with the aim of exploiting the eventual outcome to its fullest.  

Yeah for all compucomp claiming to be a CCP hack he is being quite weird here. It seems his opinion is more pro Russia than anything. China rn is in a very strong position to just stay out of this and enjoy cheap Russian resources while not taking major relationship hits with the west. Compucomp is instead arguing for aid to Russia when that would cause actual relationship degradation. Now the US may be more hostile to China but China could definetely lose a lot of relation with the EU if they actively support Russia.

I'm aware that the situation is fluid and that China is adjusting its stance moving towards being more accommodating towards the West. Yesterday it was announced that China will work with the SEC to establish standards for Chinese firms to list in the US (disclaimer, I hold MCHI which went up 20% on this news), and while this has nothing to do with the war, this is a signal on China's attitude on it since with China the level of cooperation with the West is tightly correlated on everything. If you read my posts carefully I'm not expressing pro-Russian views but rather views opposing Western hegemony and bullying behavior; unlike the actual Russians here that got banned, I never made any comment on how Ukrainians don't deserve their own country, that they're a bunch of Nazis, defending Russia's conduct in the war, etc.

If our leaders judge that the right thing to do is to beat a retreat, back away from Russia, and repair relations with the West, then I'll suck it up and adjust my views since they know better than me. Sometimes one just has to accept an L. Up until last week or so the official stance of the Foreign Ministry was quite bellicose and anti-Western so I'm not the only one that has to make an adjustment. We'll see how the Biden-Xi call goes, if Biden really wants to encourage Xi down this path then he will retreat a bit on some of his other anti-China stances, or he can push Xi back towards Putin by not doing so.

Pretty sure you specifically argued that China should send aid to Russia. This makes no sense from a Chinese perspective as China is getting great deals from Russia. This is also the first event in a long time which has truly united the West. Seeing Germany go to 2% GDP spending on military spending finally is a huge step.  Meanwhile as it stands the US is generally quite anti China as a whole from either party but the EU is much more mixed. Trying to push the EU back towards the US is utterly idiotic. The only answer for wanting China to send aid to Russia is either to actually help Russia or literally owning the libs where liberal means the collective West as a whole.

After how the West has treated China for generations, you're damn right China wants to stick it to the West. This has even extended to how they have treated China during this war, almost as if it were a belligerent, as compared to India which has received kid gloves, despite the actions of their governments being the same. Of course China wants to support Russia to spite the West. There will be a day when China stands up and challenges the West rather than accommodating them, and honestly I'd rather see that sooner rather than later since it's tough to watch China get pushed around and bullied. Clearly the West is not interested in genuinely dealing with us on equal terms as a partner nation.

Bro, you live in New Jersey.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I'm aware that the situation is fluid and that China is adjusting its stance moving towards being more accommodating towards the West. Yesterday it was announced that China will work with the SEC to establish standards for Chinese firms to list in the US (disclaimer, I hold MCHI which went up 20% on this news), and while this has nothing to do with the war, this is a signal on China's attitude on it since with China the level of cooperation with the West is tightly correlated on everything. If you read my posts carefully I'm not expressing pro-Russian views but rather views opposing Western hegemony and bullying behavior; unlike the actual Russians here that got banned, I never made any comment on how Ukrainians don't deserve their own country, that they're a bunch of Nazis, defending Russia's conduct in the war, etc.

If our leaders judge that the right thing to do is to beat a retreat, back away from Russia, and repair relations with the West, then I'll suck it up and adjust my views since they know better than me. Sometimes one just has to accept an L. Up until last week or so the official stance of the Foreign Ministry was quite bellicose and anti-Western so I'm not the only one that has to make an adjustment. We'll see how the Biden-Xi call goes, if Biden really wants to encourage Xi down this path then he will retreat a bit on some of his other anti-China stances, or he can push Xi back towards Putin by not doing so.

Are you capable of having a single original thought? Are you incapable of admitting any disagreement with the CCP? This is insanity.

[Storr]

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1504618717396836358?s=20&t=amp8f0pf...

[Yoda]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

Ahnold was a bad governor, is a bad person, and is a mixed bag as an actor, but he's consistently nailed foundational issues of democratic self-rule and its discontents.

I think it's incredibly unfair to say he's a bad person. What prompted you to say that? I've never heard anything but positive stories/anecdotes about him.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

Ahnold was a bad governor, is a bad person, and is a mixed bag as an actor, but he's consistently nailed foundational issues of democratic self-rule and its discontents.

I think it's incredibly unfair to say he's a bad person. What prompted you to say that? I've never heard anything but positive stories/anecdotes about him.

Back when "grab them by the pussy" was cool.

[Lord Halifax]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

Ahnold was a bad governor, is a bad person, and is a mixed bag as an actor, but he's consistently nailed foundational issues of democratic self-rule and its discontents.

I think it's incredibly unfair to say he's a bad person. What prompted you to say that? I've never heard anything but positive stories/anecdotes about him.

sexual harassment incl. some women claiming him and his bodybuilder friends intimidated them into having sex back in the 70s

[Yoda]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

Ahnold was a bad governor, is a bad person, and is a mixed bag as an actor, but he's consistently nailed foundational issues of democratic self-rule and its discontents.

I think it's incredibly unfair to say he's a bad person. What prompted you to say that? I've never heard anything but positive stories/anecdotes about him.

sexual harassment incl. some women claiming him and his bodybuilder friends intimidated them into having sex back in the 70s

I'll take it with a giant grain of salt. I kinda doubt 70's Arnold had to intimidate a woman into having sex with him. We're talking about someone who had the physique of Zeus here, not a bloated orange bag of loose skin with a skinned rodent on his head like donald trump.

[It’s so Joever]

They bombed Lviv, guess they seriously do want the entire country…

[Lord Halifax]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

Ahnold was a bad governor, is a bad person, and is a mixed bag as an actor, but he's consistently nailed foundational issues of democratic self-rule and its discontents.

I think it's incredibly unfair to say he's a bad person. What prompted you to say that? I've never heard anything but positive stories/anecdotes about him.

sexual harassment incl. some women claiming him and his bodybuilder friends intimidated them into having sex back in the 70s

I'll take it with a giant grain of salt. I kinda doubt 70's Arnold had to intimidate a woman into having sex with him. We're talking about someone who had the physique of Zeus here, not a bloated orange bag of loose skin with a skinned rodent on his head like donald trump.

lots of powerful, attractive, high status men rape and coerce women, not because they cant' get laid otherwise, but because they feel entitled to sex

[emailking]

They bombed Lviv, guess they seriously do want the entire country…

Just now? Or the strike on the base a few days ago.

[Badger]

The Case Of Russia's Apparently Back From The Dead Black Sea Warship

Tl;dr the rocket barrage against the Vasily Bykov mentioned a few days ago most likely didn't work. Ukraine was right to request anti-ship missiles.

The real takeaway from this article is that many Ukrainian reports of casualties, battlefield victories, etc, are exaggerated or outright fake news.

That  is not the point of the article at all.  It explicitly was limited was limited to saying that the reported sinking of a Russian vessel, which was reported as "probably" sunk, apparently was only damaged. There's nothing whatsoever in there about all the other reports of large amounts of Russian troop and equipment losses being over-reported.

Around a week ago this thread breathlessly celebrated as they accepted without question the Ukrainian report of supposed ambush that destroyed the Vasily Bykov. Turns out that report was fake news. Given the obvious interest the Ukrainian government and media has in putting out favorable reports regardless of veracity, and now multiple documented cases where these reports have proven to be fake, how can any thinking person trust the reports coming out of Ukrainian sources? If you tell me one lie, then everything else you say is questionable too, that's how society has always worked. Clearly people in this thread are more interested in cheerleading for Ukraine than getting at the truth, which is their right, but they are bound to be disappointed if/when the two stray far from each other.

You claimed the article broadly attacked stories of heavy Russian troop and equipment losses as likely Ukrainian propaganda. It did not.  It solely discussed an early report of the VB being sunk as opposed to damaged as having been over optimistic. You made up out of whole cloth the supposed indictment of all the other many many reports of Russian losses as being "exaggerated or outright fake news." This was simply false.

As someone recently said:

  If you tell me one lie, then everything else you say is questionable too, that's how society has always worked.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1504553418890756107

A veritable who's who of $hitbags.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

Ahnold was a bad governor, is a bad person, and is a mixed bag as an actor, but he's consistently nailed foundational issues of democratic self-rule and its discontents.

I think it's incredibly unfair to say he's a bad person. What prompted you to say that? I've never heard anything but positive stories/anecdotes about him.

Definitely cheated on his wife and had a kid with the mistress. That’s not that great. As a Californian, I’d agree that he was a bad governor, not a great person, idk about his acting, but as said, he is at least using his pulpit to support democracy, which is more than a lot of Republicans can say and should be lauded.

[GoTfan]

Seems like things have stalemated slightly. Am I reading that wrong?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Seems like things have stalemated slightly. Am I reading that wrong?

Yes - the British MoD is painting too rosy a picture of this. Russia captured Rubizhne and Izium yesterday. The former means the Ukrainian-controlled countryside east of Sjieverodonetsk are almost encircled. The latter also seems to be an encircling move (although one that is further from completion) threatening everything east of Sloviansk, which is much more significant.

These moves will lower the morale of Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. If the advances continue, those remaining will have to decide if they want their areas to become Mariupol-but-not-on-the-sea or if they want to pull out and give Russia a series of quick wins involving gain of materiel, less damage to the area and less alienation of the local populace. In the later years of the Syrian war, rebel and IS groups often faced these kinds of decisions - places unlucky enough to become “pockets” of resistance saw much worse destruction that was usually ended (after weeks, months or years) with the remaining defenders taking Syrian-sanctioned bus rides to other rebel and IS territory.

Russia has stalled outside of northeastern Ukraine and may be losing ground between Mykolaiv and Kherson, but a slow (net) advance is still an advance.

[afleitch]

The caveat being that a slow disorganised advance can be pushed back equally as easy if the resources are there.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The caveat being that a slow disorganised advance can be pushed back equally as easy if the resources are there.

If small gains are reversed quickly, this is true. Larger-scale campaigns against cities or areas where defenders have had time to fortify tend to require massing the kind of firepower that Ukraine is not being resupplied with. The Pentagon and British MoD claim that Russia doesn’t have air superiority, but this is because the Ukrainian Air Force has been using clever, evasive tactics that limited its sorties to 5-10 hours per day. They would probably need to be flying more to support a major offensive.

The Western focus on “defensive weaponry” to avoid escalation doesn’t help here, although the captured Russian materiel does.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/rbsw/status/1504731496044716048


https://mobile.twitter.com/rbsw/status/1504732269642145818


https://mobile.twitter.com/rbsw/status/1504732969168166967

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really hope this creates enough momentum for a common European defense policy to be established.

Oh, and a common energy policy so we can wean ourselves off of Russia's oil and gas as fast as possible.

[CumbrianLefty]

They bombed Lviv, guess they seriously do want the entire country…

Not necessarily, but they do want to intimidate the entire country.

They hit Ivano-Frankovsk about a week ago, so attacking Western Ukraine is nothing new.

[Blue3]

Putin’s “time to go after Scum and Traitors here in Russia” speech is definitely alarming.

But it does also show the consequences against Russia are working in the sense of Putin feeling very much like he might lose it all. Far from his “it’s impossible to hurt us, we laugh at your attempts, we will be fine” earlier speeches.