UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

The interesting thing is that I reckon even before the SNP wars begun this seat might have flipped- iirc even in May 2021 labour almost won a by election in Scotland despite putting absolutely no investment in it.

I can’t recall the seat name perhaps begun with an A?

Airdrie & Shotts.  The 2019 result there was quite similar to that in Rutherglen & Hamilton West and both had been very close in 2017 (though with different winners).  The SNP still won by 8 percentage points and the swing was only 2.5%, about half of what Labour need in R & HW.

[Torrain]

Some UK constituencies get nice line graphs on their wikipedia page. But Rutherglen isn't among them, so here's one I made earlier:



SNP/Labour vote-share (and switchers between the two blocs) will clearly dominate the coverage. But I'll be particuarly curious just how much the Conservative vote is squeezed by.

Since the seat's 2005 creation, they've always maintained their deposit, and benefitted from the party's rise in fortunes since 2016. Holding onto their position requires convincing voters they're the defacto unionist voice. If Thursday is a *good* night for Labour, the central pillar of their appeal will be seriously undermined. 

Conversely, if they hold up, but Labour gains at the SNP's expense, it'll be an interesting data point that could offer a window onto how areas like Ayrshire play next year, where Tories are in a solid second place (see this week's by-election for an anecdotally example of them holding up, relative to the national picture). Conservatives don't have much room to *grow*, but if there's a significant SNP -> Lab switch, they could end up in some weird three-way marginal territory that produces a couple of surprise upsets.

[YL]

Because a lot of Scottish Conservative support seems to be associated with the "Unionist" part of the party's name more than the "Conservative" part, I've been assuming that their vote will fall considerably as voters focussed on Unionism switch to Labour to defeat the SNP.  In the prediction competition in another place, I didn't quite go as far as them losing their deposit, though.

This was my entry, to be taken with a pinch of salt of course:
Lab 49.1
SNP 35.8
Con 6.3
Ind for Scotland 2.9
Green 2.5
Lib Dem 1.1
Family 0.8
SSP 0.5
Volt 0.3
Reform UK 0.3
TUSC 0.1
Daly 0.1
Cooke 0.1
Emperor of India 0.1

[Torrain]

Thought I might also put a graph together for each of the the following week's by-elections. I've included the minor parties for Tamworth, which was created in 1997.


Mid Beds has been around in some form since 1918, so I've only included the big three (and the SDP), because there's about 10 different minor parties, which means about half the graph is just distinguishing the Monster Raving Loony Party from the Liberals and the various eurosceptic parties. Only UKIP saved a deposit in that time (coming third place in 2015), and they're not going to be a factor this time.

I've gone back that far, because I wanted to visualise the Liberal presence in the seat, given their insistence they're the best placed to win.

[Oryxslayer]

Because a lot of Scottish Conservative support seems to be associated with the "Unionist" part of the party's name more than the "Conservative" part, I've been assuming that their vote will fall considerably as voters focussed on Unionism switch to Labour to defeat the SNP.  

Which itself is kinda a big question mark that probably still won't be answered by a by-election with unique circumstances.  IIRC Labour have not led a Scottish poll so far (if I'm wrong, my mistake!) but they have come very close to the SNP.  But unionists locally have shown signs of strong tactical voting,  obviously made easier by the transfer system. 

Basically. If we are to go to a GE, the party that is going to be the primary challenger to the SNP in a particular seat is already locked in.  The Tories have approximately 10ish seats in the rural northeast and borders,  the Lib-Dems have 5ish depending upon their targeting, and Labour has the rest of the urban and suburban seats mostly but not exclusively in the central belt. How strong will the unionist tactical voting be when presented with this divide? How will the SNP defectors stand if the opposition is not Labour, but Labour are still obviously running in the seat? There obviously are still some seats the SNP just can't lose, but the answers to these questions will determine if it I'd a SNP loss, or a blowout.

[YL]

Because a lot of Scottish Conservative support seems to be associated with the "Unionist" part of the party's name more than the "Conservative" part, I've been assuming that their vote will fall considerably as voters focussed on Unionism switch to Labour to defeat the SNP.  

Which itself is kinda a big question mark that probably still won't be answered by a by-election with unique circumstances.  IIRC Labour have not led a Scottish poll so far (if I'm wrong, my mistake!) but they have come very close to the SNP.  But unionists locally have shown signs of strong tactical voting,  obviously made easier by the transfer system. 

Basically. If we are to go to a GE, the party that is going to be the primary challenger to the SNP in a particular seat is already locked in.  The Tories have approximately 10ish seats in the rural northeast and borders,  the Lib-Dems have 5ish depending upon their targeting, and Labour has the rest of the urban and suburban seats mostly but not exclusively in the central belt. How strong will the unionist tactical voting be when presented with this divide? How will the SNP defectors stand if the opposition is not Labour, but Labour are still obviously running in the seat? There obviously are still some seats the SNP just can't lose, but the answers to these questions will determine if it I'd a SNP loss, or a blowout.

I would expect tactical voting to be weaker in a General Election than in a by-election, because that's the usual pattern, and while there are various explanations for it I think they will apply here.  So I'd expect the Tories to do worse on Thursday (and Labour better) than they would in a General Election context.

Evidence from local by-elections doesn't actually suggest that the "Unionist" vote behaves that strongly as a bloc.  Tory voters do quite strongly prefer Labour over the SNP, but quite a lot of their votes end up as non-transferable rather than going Labour in the end.  And Labour votes often actually split quite evenly between the Tories and SNP, sometimes even favouring the latter.  So I think the Tory floor will be higher than, say, the Labour floor in Con/LD contests in England, and I'm sceptical that Labour supporters will help the Tories much at all in SNP/Con contests.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well that letter by the SNP Rutherglen candidate to Labour people looks a bit desperate doesn't it.

[Torrain]

Yeah. It's not exactly a show of confidence. Compare that with the victory lap Labour are taking in the Guardian today:

Labour insiders have described the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection this week as the biggest vote since the last election, amid notable confidence they will win the seat from the SNP.

The claim has been made in internal discussions before the vote on Thursday, with Keir Starmer’s most senior advisers regarding it as by far the most important of three byelection campaigns currently under way. There will now be “a deluge” of activists and shadow cabinet ministers visiting the seat before polling day.

Officials are unusually optimistic about securing the seat after seeing a significant movement in the “promise rate” recorded by canvassers – marking the number of voters saying they will vote Labour. Canvassers have reported that previously undecided voters now say they will back Starmer.

Of course, this could be hubris. But it's starting to seem like this thing is locked down. The fact the SNP Chief Whip has been admonishing MSPs for refusing to campaign there is hardly a good sign for them either.

[JimJamUK]

And Labour votes often actually split quite evenly between the Tories and SNP, sometimes even favouring the latter.  So I think the Tory floor will be higher than, say, the Labour floor in Con/LD contests in England, and I'm sceptical that Labour supporters will help the Tories much at all in SNP/Con contests.

And how and when you define ‘Tory voters’ can make a big difference as well. There were a few constituencies that turned out to be SNP/Tory marginals where the Labour vote was static or fell in 2017, but that likely reflected an unwind of Tory voters tactically going Labour in 2015. 2019 looks much clearer, with Labour voters going SNP and not too many to the Tories

[Blair]

On another subject it's very funny that Tamworth, much like Selby, is now basically just assumed as a Labour win.

Even Selbly when the deed was called was seen as a stretch for Labour; it was only during the campaign and the lack of any Conservative fight which made people realise. It seems like Tamworth has been written off already which isn't great considering...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it were just Tamworth town I could see that, but the commuter and rural territory attached to it to make up the numbers is as bovinely Conservative as can be found anywhere in the entire country: Little Aston in particular. Surreal if true.

[Oryxslayer]

If it were just Tamworth town I could see that, but the commuter and rural territory attached to it to make up the numbers is as bovinely Conservative as can be found anywhere in the entire country: Little Aston in particular. Surreal if true.

The circumstances surrounding a resignation impact non-GE contests almost everywhere in the world to some degree. These are much worse for the local Tories here, and has been long simmering to some extent, than in say Uxbridge or Selby.

[Torrain]

It’s been leaked that cuts to Police Scotland in the upcoming Holyrood budget would see all three remaining police stations in Rutherglen and Hamilton West closed.

Apparently the proposals have been in the works for a while, but someone’s gone nuclear at the last possible moment, and sent the details to a certain tabloid.

[YL]

If it were just Tamworth town I could see that, but the commuter and rural territory attached to it to make up the numbers is as bovinely Conservative as can be found anywhere in the entire country: Little Aston in particular. Surreal if true.

Yes, I think Labour are more likely than not to win this but I would be surprised if they are so dominant that the Tories have really written it off already.

One of the Lichfield district wards, Bourne Vale, hasn't had anyone challenge the Tories in local elections since 1999.  That's six consecutive unopposed elections, including the one this year.

[Blair]

Oh yes sorry I was referring to the coverage rather than the parties efforts- the Tories will give it a go, especially as the region has a fair few Tory politicians with nothing to do…

[CumbrianLefty]

It should maybe be recalled that the Tories didn't actually *expect* to hold Uxbridge, and in fact the one credible poll taken there was almost spot-on regarding the Labour score.

What neither that poll or most observers (regardless of their politics) foresaw was just how much the right wing vote would unite behind the Tories come polling day. That was due to a single overriding issue, though - it didn't "just happen". If they don't have anything similar to rally people in Tamworth, then its maybe not surprising that they are pessimistic there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The other thing about that by-election is that people forgot that students do actually vote in large numbers at GEs these days, that the constituency includes Brunel and that it was in the Summer.

[Torrain]

Reports that Scott Benton (Blackpool South) is facing a 10 day suspension, with the Standards Committee ruling on his lobbying case in the coming fortnight. Guido and the Mirror are main sources for the story right now, so waiting for confirmation.

Conservative majority of under 4,000 - so probably a cakewalk for Labour if a vacancy is forced.

[Oryxslayer]

Yes, but I'm just talking about circumstances, because special elections are special. I'm not trying to rewrite the narrative, but it was said here in this thread that the past MPs in 2/3 contests - including Boris - didn't come up much at the doorstep. Did this single thing change the course of the by-election? Of course not. Everything about these sort of contests though is that they are special, and can become their own little bubbles.

Boris and Co. de facto resigned for political factionalism. It's easy for the electorate in that context to separate the past MP from the current contest. Lets compare that now to the long history of politicians who had to resign mid-cycle, in both the UK and abroad, for things like: corruption, sexual misconduct, abuse of power, drugs, murder, or just committing general crimes. When these contests come up, the electorate tends to remember that the incumbent was a scumbag and do bring these things up with canvassers. The mood of the electorate starts in favor of the challenger and a flip - or at least a very large backlash if the seat is deemed safe, because off-cycle elections are special. Voters have the opportunity to reassert normal behavior come a GE, if such a seat only fell thanks to scandal.

That's why the Tories are seemingly writing it off early. Cause Pincher had issues, those issues caused him to resign, and now the Tory campaign has to make amends on top of normal attempts at persuasion. The "vibes" or local mood is horrible. And in theory we already knew this in advance. It was remarked by not just one commentator that the scale of the Tory defeat in Tamworth locally, when compared to similar towns nearly that also swung against the Conservatives, was particularly intense. The one point of difference between the compared elections was of course Tamworth had Pincher and his long-simmering high-profile scandals, which had forced him to avoid normal constituent services to stay away from angry voters.

[Blair]

Yes I don’t think anyone is disagreeing that it’s harder to win!

But ofc Labour won in Chester when their own honourable member had resigned for errr personal reasons relating to an investigation- I think most U.K. pol people here would agree that the reasons for resigning make a difference.

Iirc I don’t think an MP dying from natural causes has been replaced by a different party since maybeee 2008?

By elections are weird beasts mostly because turnout is weird and equally people do seem willing to vote tactically.

[Cassius]

Yes I don’t think anyone is disagreeing that it’s harder to win!

But ofc Labour won in Chester when their own honourable member had resigned for errr personal reasons relating to an investigation- I think most U.K. pol people here would agree that the reasons for resigning make a difference.

Iirc I don’t think an MP dying from natural causes has been replaced by a different party since maybeee 2008?

By elections are weird beasts mostly because turnout is weird and equally people do seem willing to vote tactically.

Not quite, the Tories lost Cheryl Gillan’s (who’d died of cancer if I recall correctly) seat to the Lib Dems back in the Summer of 2021.

[CumbrianLefty]

Reports that Scott Benton (Blackpool South) is facing a 10 day suspension, with the Standards Committee ruling on his lobbying case in the coming fortnight. Guido and the Mirror are main sources for the story right now, so waiting for confirmation.

Conservative majority of under 4,000 - so probably a cakewalk for Labour if a vacancy is forced.

Labour only "won" the seat by a fairly modest margin (10%-ish) in this year's local elections - but in a by-election scenario their advantage would likely be augmented significantly.

Still might not be a total Tory meltdown though.

[YL]

Polls have now opened in Rutherglen & Hamilton West.  Here's Andrew Teale's take.

[Torrain]

Rutherglen was called at 1.25am in 2019, so shouldn't be too late declaring, at least compared to some of the rural seats we've had in the past few years!

BBC coverage doesn't start until 23.40 - runs until 2am.

Unlike recent seats, they've picked someone local, rather than one of their national names as the host - BBC Scotland's Martin Geissler. Which is kinda nice.

[Oryxslayer]

Rutherglen was called at 1.25am in 2019, so shouldn't be too late declaring, at least compared to some of the rural seats we've had in the past few years!

The Teale preview made it clear this part of Scotland does things like in Sunderland,  and regularly is the first to declare.  With only a single contest, and all the press watching the ballots stack up, we may know who is going to win very soon.