UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Oryxslayer]

Do we think that the Tories prefer Tamworth to coincide with Mid Beds or not? If it occurs in the same time frame, Labour will prioritize Tamworth,  putting pressure on the Lib-Dems in Bedfordshire to consolidate.  If Mid Bedford is it's own thing though, there remains a possibility of a 3-way spit facilitating a Tory hold.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think it makes much practical difference - Labour are committed to fighting Mid Beds seriously regardless, and probably have enough resources to properly target both.

And of course it means the Tories will have to defend both at the same time too.

[Blair]

Having to run a placeholder when you’re 20% behind in the polls, lost loads of seats in the council election and the resigning member did not speak for a year on account of a case that was so bad it brought down the prime minister?

Have there ever been worse circumstances for a by election? Perhaps they should consider having some sort of oil spill over the town centre

[Oryxslayer]

Having to run a placeholder when you’re 20% behind in the polls, lost loads of seats in the council election and the resigning member did not speak for a year on account of a case that was so bad it brought down the prime minister?

Have there ever been worse circumstances for a by election? Perhaps they should consider having some sort of oil spill over the town centre

I mean anyone who doesn't start Labour as the favorites here would be lying. But it will be interesting to see just how much the incumbent's record hurts the Tories, as these things seemingly always do. You don't have to look that much to find all the weighted swing models that still suggest this seat will stay Blue. Even though we all know Labour will notably outperform polling if the By-Election were tomorrow, and then likely hold the seat now that they are the incumbents if the environment is the same at the 2024 GE.

[Senator Incitatus]

Interesting that the Conservative candidate in Mid Bedfordshire is LDS. Is that at all common in the UK and might it affect the outcome?

[YL]

Interesting that the Conservative candidate in Mid Bedfordshire is LDS. Is that at all common in the UK and might it affect the outcome?

There are two LDS temples in the UK, one in Surrey and one in Chorley, Lancashire, so it's not that unusual, and we have had Mormon MPs; Terry Rooney, Labour MP for Bradford North from 1990 to 2010, was the first.  I don't think it'd be a big deal unless the media pick up on some particularly controversial view related to his religion.

[Senator Incitatus]

Interesting that the Conservative candidate in Mid Bedfordshire is LDS. Is that at all common in the UK and might it affect the outcome?

There are two LDS temples in the UK, one in Surrey and one in Chorley, Lancashire, so it's not that unusual, and we have had Mormon MPs; Terry Rooney, Labour MP for Bradford North from 1990 to 2010, was the first.  I don't think it'd be a big deal unless the media pick up on some particularly controversial view related to his religion.

That's interesting. I'm of course comparing in my mind to the three Romney presidential campaigns, where it was definitely a factor, but there are a number of reasons I can imagine that would explain the difference.

[Torrain]

Interesting that the Conservative candidate in Mid Bedfordshire is LDS. Is that at all common in the UK and might it affect the outcome?

We have had a couple of LDS MPs, but I think David Rutley is the only prominent current example. Cool guy that I am, I watched the MPs re-swear their oath to the new king last year, and Rutley brought his copy of the Book of Mormon, which he held, in addition to a King James Bible during the oath.

The religion of candidates doesn't *tend* to come up in these contests - unless there's a local scandal. The independent MP Martin Bell once mounted an (ultimately unsuccessful, but unexpectedly close) campaign against a Tory MP (Eric Pickles) when he was accused of being in the pocket of a local pentecostal church that was muscling in on the local Conservative Association.

Religious conflicts have occasionally arisen (see Respect-era George Galloway), but it's rare to see Christian sectarianism affect politics outside a few hotspots, like Glasgow (there's a thing with Labour adopting a candidate with a history in the Orange Order a few cycles back that's still got some voters hot under the collar), and of course Northern Ireland itself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The English attitude since the Victorian period (the time of various legal emancipations and so on) has been that it is wrong, or at least uncouth, to make much of a candidate's religion in a negative direction. Once tensions over Disestablishment cooled in Wales, the same became true there. Things took longer in Scotland and, obviously, Offer Excludes Northern Ireland. This is in general an immense positive, though it does come with the minor side effect of there perhaps not being enough attention on a certain very high-profile politician's membership of an actual cult.

[YL]

I don't know how much of the Tory collapse in Hove in 2017 was down to the candidate's religious views and how much down to the fact that of all erstwhile Lab/Con marginals Hove was just about the worst fit for the modern Conservative Party, but the former did get attention at the time.

Said candidate has just been selected for Mid Sussex, which isn't, on new boundaries, as rural as it sounds; it's basically Haywards Heath and Burgess Hill and doesn't actually look that safe.

[Oryxslayer]

Said candidate has just been selected for Mid Sussex, which isn't, on new boundaries, as rural as it sounds; it's basically Haywards Heath and Burgess Hill and doesn't actually look that safe.

Interesting. Since the local election results in those two towns, I have had the seat on my "potential" list for 2024, though mainly for the Lib-Dems. However, some of the models suggest Labour could steal their thunder and be the beneficiary, like whats going on in most of Sussex.

[YL]

Tamworth constituencies have an interesting history, including one of the most bizarre naming decisions for a UK constituency and a by-election with which the upcoming one will inevitably be compared.

It was a traditional Parliamentary borough under the old, pre-1832, system, and survived the Great Reform Act with somewhat enlarged boundaries, and was particularly associated with Sir Robert Peel.  But the town was much smaller than it is now, and when small boroughs were abolished in the 1885 reform it was abolished as a borough.  The town is right on the historic boundary between Warwickshire and Staffordshire, which meant that parts of it went into two separate county divisions, one in each county.  The Staffordshire division included the city of Lichfield, and so took that name, and so the name Tamworth became attached to the Warwickshire division, although it only contained part of the town and stretched way to the south beyond Solihull, including a lot of is now east Birmingham.

Between 1885 and the next review in 1918, county boundaries were changed and the Municipal Borough of Tamworth (not to be confused with the old Parliamentary Borough) was united in Staffordshire.  So in that review the formerly Warwickshire parts were also added to the Staffordshire division still called Lichfield, but somehow the Warwickshire division retained the name Tamworth in spite of not containing the actual town of that name.  (It did include some areas which are now part of the town, but they were outside it in 1918, and it did include areas which were in the Tamworth Rural District.)  You can see it on this map; it covered a very large area, including Solihull and Sutton Coldfield.  In 1945 there was a review of over-sized constituencies, and as a result it was broken up and the name "Tamworth" briefly disappeared from the constituency map.

That 1885-1945 "Tamworth" consistently voted Conservative, but although there was some overlap in the east of the town doesn't really have a lot to do with the modern constituency.  Lichfield, on the other hand, voted Labour in 1923 and 1929 before its MP joined Ramsay MacDonald's National Labour faction; when he died in 1938 it voted for Labour again in the by-election.

With the confusing Warwickshire division gone, the Staffordshire constituency which actually contained the town was renamed Lichfield & Tamworth in 1950, and this lasted until 1983.  It voted Labour in the 1950s and 1960s, but then moved towards the Tories, being a Tory gain in 1970 and only won by Labour again in October 1974.  In 1983, Lichfield was transferred to the new Mid Staffordshire constituency (scene of a famous 1990 by-election) and instead of reviving the name Tamworth the rump was renamed South East Staffordshire.

South East Staffordshire voted Tory in all three General Elections under that name, but it was close enough in 1992 that it would have been an easy gain in 1997 (the swing needed was just over 6%) had it still existed.  However it had already been gained, because its MP David Lightbown died in December 1995 and the resulting by-election was (inevitably, for a by-election in a Lab/Con marginal in 1996) a Labour landslide.  So if Labour do not win this by-election or even if they only win it narrowly, expect certain people to compare Tony Blair and Keir Starmer's by-election winning abilities...

In 1997 some more areas close to Lichfield were removed and the constituency was renamed Tamworth.  The by-election winner Brian Jenkins held it for Labour until he was beaten by Chris Pincher in 2010, since when it has swung heavily to the Tories, with their margins in 2015 and 2017 being bigger, and their margin in 2019 much bigger, than the ones they got in South East Staffordshire in 1983 and 1987.  That suggests that this is really a considerably harder gain than it was in 1996.

[JimJamUK]

In 1997 some more areas close to Lichfield were removed and the constituency was renamed Tamworth.  The by-election winner Brian Jenkins held it for Labour until he was beaten by Chris Pincher in 2010, since when it has swung heavily to the Tories, with their margins in 2015 and 2017 being bigger, and their margin in 2019 much bigger, than the ones they got in South East Staffordshire in 1983 and 1987.  That suggests that this is really a considerably harder gain than it was in 1996.

It’s very much emblematic of the traditional Midlands marginal that has zoomed rightwards post-Blair. There was a noticeably above average swing in 2010, the Conservative majority went up 11% in 2015 despite no swing nationally, and there was a further small swing to the Conservatives in 2017 despite them losing their Parliamentary majority.

That said, these sort of seats saw a gradual but by 2023 massive improvement for Labour compared to 2019, and Tamworth was a terrible Conservative performance even by 2023 standards.

[Oryxslayer]

The town is right on the historic boundary between Warwickshire and Staffordshire, which meant that parts of it went into two separate county divisions, one in each county.  

SNIP

And in traditional fashion, the roots of much of this go all the way back to pre-Norman times. Tamworth became a place on the map because it was the center of royal power for the various Mercian kingdoms in what is now the West Midlands. This of course made it a target for various Scandinavian raids and extortions, that eventually diminished the town and kingdom.

 When Wessex established governance over the region, they specifically carved up the Tamworth region between the precursors to Warwickshire and Staffordshire. The was no "Tamworthshire." Historians have theorized a very modern reason for this: gerrymandering away the towns political relevance and transferring that power to other areas in the West. Divided, Tamworth could not utilize it's Mercian legacy to centralize discontent and serve as the core for projects to revive Mercia.

And it worked. The division shifted centers of control to the point Tamworth is not in the Domesday Book.

[Coldstream]

Interesting that the Conservative candidate in Mid Bedfordshire is LDS. Is that at all common in the UK and might it affect the outcome?

There are two LDS temples in the UK, one in Surrey and one in Chorley, Lancashire, so it's not that unusual, and we have had Mormon MPs; Terry Rooney, Labour MP for Bradford North from 1990 to 2010, was the first.  I don't think it'd be a big deal unless the media pick up on some particularly controversial view related to his religion.

Do temples have a specific meaning beyond simply a religious house of worship in LDS? I ask because I know for a fact there are more than 2 LDS church’s in the UK - I’ve been to at least 2 that have been polling stations.

Agree with the above though, no one would care - and few would even notice - that the candidate is a Mormon in of itself.

[xelas81]

Is green belt reform debate an issue in Tamworth?

[Bacon King]

Do temples have a specific meaning beyond simply a religious house of worship in LDS? I ask because I know for a fact there are more than 2 LDS church’s in the UK - I’ve been to at least 2 that have been polling stations

Yeah they are a special thing - and can't be polling stations because non-Mormen are barred from entry

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_(LDS_Church)

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't know how much of the Tory collapse in Hove in 2017 was down to the candidate's religious views and how much down to the fact that of all erstwhile Lab/Con marginals Hove was just about the worst fit for the modern Conservative Party, but the former did get attention at the time.

Anecdotal evidence is that it was a significant factor, but the total Tory failure to recover in 2019 also stands out (or maybe that just shows she caused longer term damage, plus Peter Kyle does appear to be genuinely popular locally by all accounts)

A reminder - Kristy Adams believes that gay people can be "cured".

And she stood in HOVE

[Torrain]

The Scotsman: Sex pest MP Patrick Grady is welcome to campaign in Rutherglen and Hamilton West ahead of by-election, says SNP candidate

I get why Katy Loudon would say Sturgeon was welcome to campaign, despite her difficulties - as she did last week. She is after all, still a grandee, and uncharged. But Patrick Grady?

A Labour or Tory candidate would hardly endorse campaigning with Chris Pincher or Claudia Webbe.

And sure, she tried to hedge. But she still ended up at a straightforward yes.

[YL]

The Scotsman: Sex pest MP Patrick Grady is welcome to campaign in Rutherglen and Hamilton West ahead of by-election, says SNP candidate

I get why Katy Loudon would say Sturgeon was welcome to campaign, despite her difficulties - as she did last week. She is after all, still a grandee, and uncharged. But Patrick Grady?

A Labour or Tory candidate would hardly endorse campaigning with Chris Pincher or Claudia Webbe.

And sure, she tried to hedge. But she still ended up at a straightforward yes.

I guess the difference between Grady's case and Pincher's or Webbe's is that the latter two have been disowned by their parties, whereas Grady's suspension was lifted and he is again an SNP MP. I'm not sure how well this reflects on the SNP, but in that sense he is back in the fold, so it's not that surprising that they'd be happy to have him campaign.

I understand, though, that the SNP have used Glasgow going from seven to six seats in the boundary review to squeeze him out for the next Parliament.

[Blair]

What do people think the chances are of a genuine three way split in Mid Beds?

[somerandomth]

That's interesting. I'm of course comparing in my mind to the three Romney presidential campaigns, where it was definitely a factor, but there are a number of reasons I can imagine that would explain the difference.

Religion seems to play a far more understated role in British politics compared to America, it's often far less explicit and it's quite rare for a candidate's religion to have a large direct impact on votes (even if it may have indirect impacts through a candidate's views towards certain issues, e.g. Tim Farron)

[Coldstream]

What do people think the chances are of a genuine three way split in Mid Beds?

I’m still not convinced the Lib Dem vote will be anywhere near high enough for them to make it a genuine three way contest - they don’t seem to be having much cut through so far.

[YL]

What do people think the chances are of a genuine three way split in Mid Beds?

It's only likely if there is significant confusion in the area as to who the "tactical" choice to beat the Tories is. Both Labour and Lib Dems are claiming that they are, of course, but that doesn't mean very much. I have not been on the ground so can't really comment; perhaps Coldstream has been?

If the Lib Dems can't persuade people that they are the tactical choice I don't think they'll be anywhere near making it a three way split. They are still the bookies' favourites, but their odds have been lengthening.

[Coldstream]

What do people think the chances are of a genuine three way split in Mid Beds?

It's only likely if there is significant confusion in the area as to who the "tactical" choice to beat the Tories is. Both Labour and Lib Dems are claiming that they are, of course, but that doesn't mean very much. I have not been on the ground so can't really comment; perhaps Coldstream has been?

If the Lib Dems can't persuade people that they are the tactical choice I don't think they'll be anywhere near making it a three way split. They are still the bookies' favourites, but their odds have been lengthening.

Nah I’m in Rutherglen - but I know people I’ve spoken to aren’t concerned about them. There’s a bit of posturing on twitter to make sure the vote is as degraded as possible - but no one seems to be concerned.