Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060953282439393280

I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs.

Presumably, the argument would be that it is unconstitutional to change the congressional election process through citizen initiative, because the Constitution gives the power to regulate congressional elections to state legislatures (subject to federal legislation).

This argument was rejected by the Supreme Court in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015.  But the vote was 5-4, with Kennedy breaking the tie to side with the four liberals.  With Kennedy replaced by Kavanaugh, the outcome could be different if the Court heard the same argument today.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Better updates on the situation above here: https://twitter.com/harrisalexc

As much as Republican elected officials are to blame, the media's hard-on for calling races quickly is also to blame. It creates the notion that the race is over (and the media doesn't deal with any of the fallout from that).

Seriously. 2000 should have been a lesson that perception is everything. When something as important as who's running the country is on the line, media should take a step back and say "Okay, let's be patient." The problem, of course, is that election night is essentially sports-level entertainment at this point. If you watched the CNN broadcast, they were making the early returns sound like first down on the opponent's 30.

[Colombia]

I like Katie Porter and Jared Golden,great news.

[Virginiá]

I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs.

That only the legislature can change the rules for federal elections, and so ballot initiative-driven changes are unconstitutional. Coincidentally, a favorable ruling for him would obliterate decades of pro-voter reforms across the country.

The reason I am nervous about that is because John Roberts and his band of partisan conservative justices came within 1 vote of ruling that redistricting commissions enacted by ballot initiatives are unconstitutional, as only the legislature itself can change the rules regarding redistricting. The ruling was that 'legislature' also included the voters where ballot initiatives exist, but Roberts' dissented very strongly and I'm worried he could try to overturn even such a recent precedent now that Kennedy is gone. He only seems to care about the USSC's legitimacy in cases that don't present a threat to Republicans in elections.

It shouldn't be a problem, but Roberts & friends always seem to rule favorably for Republicans when it comes to things that concern their viability in elections

[Pyro]

I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs.

Presumably, the argument would be that it is unconstitutional to change the congressional election process through citizen initiative, because the Constitution gives the power to regulate congressional elections to state legislatures (subject to federal legislation).

This argument was rejected by the Supreme Court in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015.  But the vote was 5-4, with Kennedy breaking the tie to side with the four liberals.  With Kennedy replaced by Kavanaugh, the outcome could be different if the Court heard the same argument today.

If the Supreme Court overturns the vote and hands the seat to a whining Poliquin in defiance of Maine state law, a Democratic challenger is all but guaranteed to win with a majority vote in 2020.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060966178846322688

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well, in that case I guess Maine's new legislature can just pass a law reinstating it.
And if they try to abolish redistricting commissions that will also mean that California, New Jersey and Washington Democrats will also be free to gerrymander their states. 

[fldemfunds]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060966178846322688

Dems, assemble and block votes at all the R locations! Watch republican heads explode!

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060966178846322688

OOF

[J. J.]

Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE.

Brooks Brothers Riot 2

https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters

Not blocking.  Protesting.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060966178846322688

That’s... a lot of counties

[fldemfunds]

Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE.

Brooks Brothers Riot 2

https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters

Not blocking.  Protesting.

They literally used rental trucks to block the entrances.

[Baki]

Sinema's lead dropped by 1300 and now stands at 83xx votes.

[Gass3268]

Sinema's lead dropped by 1300 and now stands at 83xx votes.

Do we know where these votes came from? I know there was more from Pinal.

[CellarDoor]

Sinema's lead dropped by 1300 and now stands at 83xx votes.

Do we know where these votes came from? I know there was more from Pinal.

It looks to me like the most recent votes came from Mohave (~2,000 votes or so).

[Devout Centrist]

Sinema's lead dropped by 1300 and now stands at 83xx votes.

Do we know where these votes came from? I know there was more from Pinal.

It looks to me like the most recent votes came from Mohave (~2,000 votes or so).

Yes, Mohave just updated.

[Politician]

Sinema's lead dropped by 1300 and now stands at 83xx votes.

Do we know where these votes came from? I know there was more from Pinal.

It looks to me like the most recent votes came from Mohave (~2,000 votes or so).

Mohave is the state's most Republican county, for what it's worth.

[GP270watch]

American election laws are a joke.

It's made even worse when politicians who know exactly how the process works pretend like it's all very shocking and unfair, and whipping their supporters into a frenzy over brazen lies.

Part of me wishes that kind of behavior was treated similarly to people yelling FIRE in a crowded space.

 Trump doesn't care that peddling conspiracy theories, outright lying, and stoking partisan division will incite violence by disturbed individuals. We already know that, we've already seen it. Sad excuse for a person, let alone a President.

 Florida GOP isn't much better. In a Democracy you count all the votes. Part of the reason Florida elections are such a mess is because they've tried to make voting as onerous as possible.
 

[Thatkat04]

Mohave and Cochise counties.

Should be noted Cochise's vote drop was McSally +11, which is a pretty good result for Sinema seeing as how the county is 21.4% for McSally.

[RI]

One county is setting out to make Broward look good: https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/update-no-porter-county-election-results-until-at-least-friday/article_91b8db58-8ab4-5cbf-b232-d78cffb812de.html

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE.

Brooks Brothers Riot 2

https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters

Not blocking.  Protesting.

To use a very frequent question from Trump-supporters:

"What are they protesting?"

[Virginiá]

American election laws are a joke.

It's made even worse when politicians who know exactly how the process works pretend like it's all very shocking and unfair, and whipping their supporters into a frenzy over brazen lies.

Part of me wishes that kind of behavior was treated similarly to people yelling FIRE in a crowded space.

 Trump doesn't care that peddling conspiracy theories, outright lying, and stoking partisan division will incite violence by. We already know that, we've already seen it. Sad excuse for a person, let alone a President.

Oh with Trump, I know. I'm just saying, this is pretty common among other Republican politicians too. McCrory was basically accusing thousands of legitimate voters of fraud after his loss, when ti came down to the wire. Now Scott is stirring the pot himself, despite knowing exactly how close elections play out in Florida (blocking BOE entrances? really?). And Arizona is arguably one of the worst of these examples, because they all should know that they count ballots even after election day due to the volume of mail. Yet here we are, people acting !!shocked!! that there are still votes to count.

It's all so very pathetic and they should be ashamed of themselves. Just let the process play out instead of whining and delegitimizing our institutions for absolutely nothing.

[Thatkat04]

So Cochise County dropped 4021 votes. It was McSally +11. They should be comepletly done now.

Mohave county dropped about 2000 votes. Was a McSally +39 batch. They probably have about 6000 votes left to count.

I'm getting all this info from @DrRyanLove on twitter f.y.i.

[Dr. Arch]

Mohave and Cochise counties.

Should be noted Cochise's vote drop was McSally +11, which is a pretty good result for Sinema seeing as how the county is 21.4% for McSally.

Yeah, McSally needed a much bigger margin among Cochise and Mohave. I think after today’s Maricopa update at 7, the networks can go ahead and project Sinema as the Apparent Winner