Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[GP270watch]

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

 Republicans tend to "win" election day by party ID. And they also vote earlier in the morning and you see more Democrats later in the day, usually after work.

[GP270watch]

Good news for the Dems in FL is that Panhandle turnout is quite low so far, especially in the most hurricane-damaged counties.

That's a shame. I'm a Democrat and I want everyone to vote, win or lose.

[GP270watch]

Old people in FL are turning out like mad: 72% of 2016 ED votes cast in Sumter County, 69% in Collier---two highest in FL.

They always do.

One of the stories of Florida that doesn't get a lot of buzz, is that some of the fastest growing areas of the state are heavily Republican. They turn out in droves and it eats into the big margins Democrats get out of the South East counties.

[GP270watch]

Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future.

 Until Latinos(besides Cubans) develop a culture of voting this will be the case. The white voting population in Florida replenishes itself with retirees and so even demographic shift to the electorate being younger and more non-white doesn't matter, if they don't vote and the old retirees vote like crazy.

 But Republicans also can't help themselves and I believe that if they win tonight they will makes changes to social safety net programs that will certainly cause a voter backlash even among older whites.

[GP270watch]

It's not just about growth among POC. Young people in FL are very Democratic

 But they have to vote, also they're not so Democratic that they bother to register as Democrats. Democrats are losing the branding of their party with young people. More of them are registering unaffiliated, NPA, or independent around the country. In Florida, Democrats registrations have been slowing as Dixiecrats make the switch to the GOP or die, and as young and Latino voters register NPA.

I believe having people actually join your party is a key part of making them reliable voters. Because they feel more invested and can help to mold the party with the values and candidates they want.

[GP270watch]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Regardless of the reason, Broward County election administration is clearly incompetent.

True, and not news. Brenda Snipes has been messing up elections for 15 years now.

She's always in the news for one screwup or another.

[GP270watch]

There's a hand recount triggered with that small a margin. I expect Nelson will make this thing very close.

[GP270watch]

Scott certainly doesn't sound like someone who is winning.

He was sweating and ranting like a man who's about to be caught.

[GP270watch]

American election laws are a joke.

[GP270watch]

American election laws are a joke.

It's made even worse when politicians who know exactly how the process works pretend like it's all very shocking and unfair, and whipping their supporters into a frenzy over brazen lies.

Part of me wishes that kind of behavior was treated similarly to people yelling FIRE in a crowded space.

 Trump doesn't care that peddling conspiracy theories, outright lying, and stoking partisan division will incite violence by disturbed individuals. We already know that, we've already seen it. Sad excuse for a person, let alone a President.

 Florida GOP isn't much better. In a Democracy you count all the votes. Part of the reason Florida elections are such a mess is because they've tried to make voting as onerous as possible.
 

[GP270watch]

It's all so very pathetic and they should be ashamed of themselves. Just let the process play out instead of whining and delegitimizing our institutions for absolutely nothing.

 It's very shameful, I agree. Sadly you can't shame these people. You can only try and educate the Public to take their civic duties seriously and oppose this nonsense.

 Most reasonable people agree with one person, one vote. Most agree that every vote should be counted. That the voting process should be fair and easy and that elections should be organized and above reproach.