Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[KingSweden]

This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060251726467469312

So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done.

Yeah if Sinema breaks even or even nets votes from this next batch, she’s won IMO. Anyone know when they’ll be counted?

There’ll be a batch tomorrow

[YE]

What happened to the 30K undervote in Broward?

[Thatkat04]

What happened to the 30K undervote in Broward?

We'll only know about that after they hand recount all the ballots.

[fldemfunds]

What happened to the 30K undervote in Broward?

That will be examined during hand recount

[OneJ]

What are Porter’s chances in CA-45 looking like?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What are Porter’s chances in CA-45 looking like?

She's almost certain to win. Walters's margin is dropping like a rock as the provisionals and absentees come in, and 538 has the race as LEAN D.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What happened to the 30K undervote in Broward?

It's based on a hypothetical but plausible theory of a machine error.  There's another plausible theory that the layout of the ballot may explain most or all of the undervote, i.e. voters overlooked the Senate race.  As I see it:

1. The race is now close enough that it will go to a hand recount.

2. The hand recount will determine if there really was a machine error.

3. If there was no machine error, Scott has it.

4. If there was a machine error, the result is up in the air.

[RI]

The size of the undervote in the whole of Broward is closer to 20K than 30K, btw

[Alabama_Indy10]

1. When will the hand recount begin?

2. If it is proven to be a machine error, how many votes can Nelson expect to net from those 30,000?

[Roronoa D. Law]

The size of the undervote in the whole of Broward is closer to 20K than 30K, btw

I think its 24k

[fldemfunds]

https://twitter.com/paulmitche11/status/1060714915759980544

[Gass3268]

This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060251726467469312

So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done.

Yeah if Sinema breaks even or even nets votes from this next batch, she’s won IMO. Anyone know when they’ll be counted?

There’ll be a batch tomorrow

Plus another large dump from Pima.

[wbrocks67]

Scott certainly doesn't sound like someone who is winning.

[Gass3268]

Tump just made things worse in Florida.

[RI]

The size of the undervote in the whole of Broward is closer to 20K than 30K, btw

I think its 24k

Yes, but between the two major candidates it's only 21k.

[libertpaulian]

I don't give a crap who wins at this point...sick of hearing about Florida.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

1. When will the hand recount begin?

2. If it is proven to be a machine error, how many votes can Nelson expect to net from those 30,000?

The numbers I've seen suggest it is much closer to 20,000.  And some of these will be legitimate undervotes spread randomly across the county (maybe 20%-25%), irrelevant of any "machine error".

But the problem appears to be confined to the portion of the county in the 24th congressional district.  This is the most Democratic district in the state, being almost 50% black and less than 10% white.  It would not be uncommon for a statewide Democratic candidate to win 85% of the vote here.

[wbrocks67]

So even before the undervote, it's possible that there is still enough votes left in the state to get Nelson the 15k? The hand count should be very interesting...

[libertpaulian]

Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming.  I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better.

Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes?

[KingSweden]

Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming.  I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better.

Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes?

Probably just Grand Rapids changing

[Gass3268]

Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming.  I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better.

Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes?

Probably just Grand Rapids changing

MI-03 got moved to Likely-R in a lot of ratings.

[lfromnj]

Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming.  I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better.

Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes?

I mean he won by 12 and trump only won the district by 9.He did fine enough for someone who didn't bother to campaign.

[OneJ]

*One week ago*

 Karen Handel: Whew, that was a close election I squeaked out against Ossof last year. But I'm finally getting into the groove of this whole "Representative" thing. I've just put down a lease on a place here in DC for me and my family to live, I'm making friends and connections and I've found this nice little coffee shop. DC is starting to feel like home! I sure hope nothing happens that forces me to move back to Atlanta - I just forwarded all my subscriptions here!

Pretty much this whole thing, but especially the bolded part screams “elitism” to me, lol!

[RI]

So even before the undervote, it's possible that there is still enough votes left in the state to get Nelson the 15k? The hand count should be very interesting...

Since Broward is essentially done, it's highly unlikely Scott has less than a 10K lead going into the recount. The current margin shouldn't change a whole lot based on what's out. There simply aren't that many provisionals (10K at most) and military/overseas ballots tend to be a wash. There might be a few ballots in Palm Beach left, but not very many.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming.  I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better.

Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes?

Grand rapids is trending/swinging Dem. Other than Oakland County and Ann Arbor (and one other tiny county in northern Michigan) it was the only part of Michigan that swung to Clinton.