AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[Nyvin]

WHOOO HOO!!!

GO ARPAIO!!

[Nyvin]

There was a poll in Arizona showing only 21% of people there approved Trump's pardon of Arpaio. 

If he's the GOP nominee they lose the seat, end of story.

[Nyvin]

Arpaio and Ward will split the crazy vote, allowing McSally to win the primary by dominating the moderate vote.

Arpaio can beat them both with his name rec + Trump endorsement

Trump is not going to support Arpaio.  Trump and McConnell are tied at the wasit now.

Bet Trump supports McSally.  After today’s Oval Office show that will not hurt her in November.

I thought Trump was going to support Ward.  There is this tweet:


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/898136462385979392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Farizona%2F2017%2F08%2F17%2Fpresident-donald-trump-endorse-kelli-ward-tweet-bashing-sen-jeff-flake%2F575649001%2F

[Nyvin]

Vote for me because behind closed doors I'm as racist as Trump.

https://twitter.com/sppeoples/status/951860966358044672

Asked whether Trump's "sh**t hole" comments were racist, Arizona Rep. Martha McSally had this to say after she announced her Senate campaign in Tucson: "I speak a little salty behind closed doors at times as well, so I'm not going to throw the first stone on using any language."

I'm sure all the latinos in the state are going to love this....

[Nyvin]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

Eh, Sinema may be the favorite but the point of the article is that it is silly to take the poll result at face value this far out, with so many convoluting factors. Bear in mind also that people will believe Arizona is purple when they see it - Arizona has been a solidly red state for all of our lifetimes, and even with increasing Democratic competitiveness there it is hard to see it as fully a toss up state yet.

The same was probably said of Colorado in 2006.

[Nyvin]

McSally is not a good candidate, she's just not a terrible one like Ward.

[Nyvin]

The fact that Sinema and the Green candidate combined have 52% of the vote...

Republicans should be nervous about this state in 2020.

Who on the Democratic side could run and win then?

They could run Stanton, Gallego, Kelly, etc. There are many good choices!

and the republicans have even better candidates like Kelli Ward and  Debbie Lesko Scweikert and Paul gosar.

Yeah if the SOS race flips dem im moving AZ senate to Tilt D mostly due to candidate quality. Ward now has a very good launching point. MCSALLY Was moderate and lost so maybe a TRUE conservative can win.

If the Republicans run Ward or Gosar for anything statewide in Arizona the race would be Likely D at the very worst for Democrats.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RepresentMeAZ/status/1062153054454075393

Lol, ok guys I feel a little bad now, just leave them be heh.

Didn't McSally and friends run an incredibly nasty campaign?

I mean, I appreciate her not going scorched earth when the votes were being counted, but is that really something we should be giving credit for now? Shouldn't that just be expected of all politicians, or is the bar that low now?

On a personal level I kind of see McSally and Sinema both as being very nice people behind all the scenes and political talk.   I imagine that's what kept the campaigns so civil this whole time.