AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[henster]

Winning the SOS is huge it means Ducey can't run because he'd be handing the Governorship to Hobbs.

[Cashew]

The fact that Sinema and the Green candidate combined have 52% of the vote...

Republicans should be nervous about this state in 2020.

Who on the Democratic side could run and win then?

They could run Stanton, Gallego, Kelly, etc. There are many good choices!

and the republicans have even better candidates like Kelli Ward and  Debbie Lesko Scweikert and Paul gosar.

Yeah if the SOS race flips dem im moving AZ senate to Tilt D mostly due to candidate quality. Ward now has a very good launching point. MCSALLY Was moderate and lost so maybe a TRUE conservative can win.

Dude Sinema won on the backs of Maricopa County voters and they are not going to turn out in droves for candidates like Gosar and Ward.

That was sarcasm.

[Torrain]

I know it's a low bar, but I'm grateful that McSally is letting the process play out, and not crying conspiracy like her Floridian counterpart. If Ducey appoints her to the other seat, I wouldn't be offended.

It would seem a tad weird, given her rejection by the voters, but she does have a compelling history. I'm pretty sure 2020 race is going to be a tossup regardless of who sits in the seat.

[Snipee356]

If Ducey appoints her to the other seat, I wouldn't be offended.

I don't understand. Didn't he already appoint Kyl?

[Torrain]

If Ducey appoints her to the other seat, I wouldn't be offended.

I don't understand. Didn't he already appoint Kyl?

Kyl's hinted  that he was only committed to serving through to 2019, leaving open the chance that Ducey may appoint a second replacement. The rationale is that if the GOP want to win those races, they'll have a far better chance if the seat is occupied by an incumbent who can run on their record in the Senate.

If Kyl wanted the seat long term, he'd probably have a chance of holding it. But, he'd have to run in 2020, and 2022, and at least one of those years is likely to a banner Democratic year, where Arizona is in play, either in a Democratic-leaning Presidential election, or in Trump's second midterm. Kyl already bowed out once when faced with a competitive election, it's unlikely that he wants to face two more in quick succession

[Snipee356]

If Ducey appoints her to the other seat, I wouldn't be offended.

I don't understand. Didn't he already appoint Kyl?

Kyl's hinted  that he was only committed to serving through to 2019, leaving open the chance that Ducey may appoint a second replacement. The rationale is that if the GOP want to win those races, they'll have a far better chance if the seat is occupied by an incumbent who can run on their record in the Senate.

If Kyl wanted the seat long term, he'd probably have a chance of holding it. But, he'd have to run in 2020, and 2022, and at least one of those years is likely to a banner Democratic year, where Arizona is in play, either in a Democratic-leaning Presidential election, or in Trump's second midterm. Kyl already bowed out once when faced with a competitive election, it's unlikely that he wants to face two more in quick succession

OK. Then it's weird he accepted the seat in the first place.

[Torrain]

If Ducey appoints her to the other seat, I wouldn't be offended.

I don't understand. Didn't he already appoint Kyl?

Kyl's hinted  that he was only committed to serving through to 2019, leaving open the chance that Ducey may appoint a second replacement. The rationale is that if the GOP want to win those races, they'll have a far better chance if the seat is occupied by an incumbent who can run on their record in the Senate.

If Kyl wanted the seat long term, he'd probably have a chance of holding it. But, he'd have to run in 2020, and 2022, and at least one of those years is likely to a banner Democratic year, where Arizona is in play, either in a Democratic-leaning Presidential election, or in Trump's second midterm. Kyl already bowed out once when faced with a competitive election, it's unlikely that he wants to face two more in quick succession

OK. Then it's weird he accepted the seat in the first place.

Yeah, the whole situation's a tad weird. You have to put it in the perspective of the Kavanaugh nomination though. The GOP realized they needed every vote on the table, and Kyl had already been working behind the scenes to push him through the confirmation.

Kyl was a safe Yes vote, and it made little sense to appoint McSally and surrender the Senate race by letting Arpaio or Kelly run instead.

It was too close to the election to replace any of the GOP congressmen or Statewide officeholders on the ballot without risking a potential upset, and there were no other clear candidates for the seat, besides McCain's wife or daughter, neither of which could be relied on to vote Yes on Kavanaugh.

[wbrocks67]

If McSally loses this, it would be a slap in the face to voters if Kyl put her in place. They rejected her. Let that be the end, and if she wants to run again, then let it be. But appointing her after she was rejected by voters would be messed up.

[pppolitics]

If McSally loses this, it would be a slap in the face to voters if Kyl put her in place. They rejected her. Let that be the end, and if she wants to run again, then let it be. But appointing her after she was rejected by voters would be messed up.

It would be fun to beat her a second time.

An appointed incumbent simply doesn't have a staying power of a elected incumbent.

[Torrain]

If McSally loses this, it would be a slap in the face to voters if Kyl put her in place. They rejected her. Let that be the end, and if she wants to run again, then let it be. But appointing her after she was rejected by voters would be messed up.

It would be fun to beat her a second time.

An appointed incumbent simply doesn't have a staying power of a elected incumbent.

Hence, she's a good appointee for Democrats to run against. She pleases most republicans in the short run, by making up for her loss in the election, and Democrats in the long run by losing to Kelly/Stanton/generic D in 2020 or 2022.

[bagelman]

If McSally loses this, it would be a slap in the face to voters if Kyl put her in place. They rejected her. Let that be the end, and if she wants to run again, then let it be. But appointing her after she was rejected by voters would be messed up.

This would be true if the result was 57-43 D but Ducey would probably be able to justify it on the grounds of how close the result was.

[Pollster]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

[Nyvin]

The fact that Sinema and the Green candidate combined have 52% of the vote...

Republicans should be nervous about this state in 2020.

Who on the Democratic side could run and win then?

They could run Stanton, Gallego, Kelly, etc. There are many good choices!

and the republicans have even better candidates like Kelli Ward and  Debbie Lesko Scweikert and Paul gosar.

Yeah if the SOS race flips dem im moving AZ senate to Tilt D mostly due to candidate quality. Ward now has a very good launching point. MCSALLY Was moderate and lost so maybe a TRUE conservative can win.

If the Republicans run Ward or Gosar for anything statewide in Arizona the race would be Likely D at the very worst for Democrats.

[2016]

Sinema will be a "One-Termer" in the same vain Donnelly, Heitkamp were especially if Trump loses in 2020.

The remaining Ballots will favour Republicans. It might not be enough for McSally to win BUT it will be hell enough to keep the SoS Race in Republican Hands.

[pppolitics]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

[pppolitics]

Sinema will be a "One-Termer" in the same vain Donnelly, Heitkamp were especially if Trump loses in 2020.

The remaining Ballots will favour Republicans. It might not be enough for McSally to win BUT it will be hell enough to keep the SoS Race in Republican Hands.

LOL

Arizona is moving to the left, not right.

Donnelley and Heitkamp were doomed because their state keeps moving to the right and out of their reaches.

[Virginiá]

I wonder if Ward would even run again. I could definitely see it. After all, this is a woman who essentially argued that McCain announcing he was dying was unfair because it may hurt her campaign. Between that and Arpaio, she probably feels cheated somehow.

[Zaybay]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

If 2018 proved anything, its that voters dont care about ideology. The more likely reason for the blowout was Ducey's nuking of the airwaves, and the abandonment of Garcia by the Democrats. It also looks like his rise in approvals from the McCain replacement were also a boon, as he never dropped after that point.

[2016]

Sinema will be a "One-Termer" in the same vain Donnelly, Heitkamp were especially if Trump loses in 2020.

The remaining Ballots will favour Republicans. It might not be enough for McSally to win BUT it will be hell enough to keep the SoS Race in Republican Hands.

LOL

Arizona is moving to the left, not right.

Donnelley and Heitkamp were doomed because their state keeps moving to the right and out of their reaches.

Doesn't matter how AZ moves. Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley will likely be the 2024 GOP Nominee and restore the Republican Party and trim down the influence of "Trump Republicans".

And Democrats will not win 4 Statewide Contests this year.

Gaynor is still favoured in the SoS Race being down only 2,000 Votes and so is Justin Olson in the Corporate Commissioners Race being down only 4,000 Votes or so.

[pppolitics]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

If 2018 proved anything, its that voters dont care about ideology. The more likely reason for the blowout was Ducey's nuking of the airwaves, and the abandonment of Garcia by the Democrats. It also looks like his rise in approvals from the McCain replacement were also a boon, as he never dropped after that point.

From talking to people in Arizona, that's not necessary true.

McSally aligned herself too closely to Trump and that's why she lost.

Arizona's educated whites really dislike Trump.

They found Sinema palatable enough to be able to pull the lever for her.

[Zaybay]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

If 2018 proved anything, its that voters dont care about ideology. The more likely reason for the blowout was Ducey's nuking of the airwaves, and the abandonment of Garcia by the Democrats. It also looks like his rise in approvals from the McCain replacement were also a boon, as he never dropped after that point.

From talking to people in Arizona, that's not necessary true.

McSally aligned herself too closely to Trump and that's why she lost.

Arizona's educated whites really dislike Trump.

They found Sinema palatable enough to be able to pull the lever for her.

That doesnt explain the SOS race, the closeness of the AG race, nor the state legislature gains made by the Ds. Neither does it match the results from the rest of the midterm, where all three factions of the Ds preformed relatively similar.

Its most likely the difference between state and federal politics, along with the reasons I listed above.

[henster]

Is there a primary for the Senate special election in 2020, I could see McSally if she were appointed lose to Ward.

[pppolitics]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

If 2018 proved anything, its that voters dont care about ideology. The more likely reason for the blowout was Ducey's nuking of the airwaves, and the abandonment of Garcia by the Democrats. It also looks like his rise in approvals from the McCain replacement were also a boon, as he never dropped after that point.

From talking to people in Arizona, that's not necessary true.

McSally aligned herself too closely to Trump and that's why she lost.

Arizona's educated whites really dislike Trump.

They found Sinema palatable enough to be able to pull the lever for her.

That doesnt explain the SOS race, the closeness of the AG race, nor the state legislature gains made by the Ds. Neither does it match the results from the rest of the midterm, where all three factions of the Ds preformed relatively similar.

Its most likely the difference between state and federal politics, along with the reasons I listed above.

The AG race isn't even close.

Anyway, in a lot of these down-ballot races, the Democrats can keep low profiles and ran inoffensive campaigns.

A full blown liberal would get blown out of the race.

[Zaybay]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

If 2018 proved anything, its that voters dont care about ideology. The more likely reason for the blowout was Ducey's nuking of the airwaves, and the abandonment of Garcia by the Democrats. It also looks like his rise in approvals from the McCain replacement were also a boon, as he never dropped after that point.

From talking to people in Arizona, that's not necessary true.

McSally aligned herself too closely to Trump and that's why she lost.

Arizona's educated whites really dislike Trump.

They found Sinema palatable enough to be able to pull the lever for her.

That doesnt explain the SOS race, the closeness of the AG race, nor the state legislature gains made by the Ds. Neither does it match the results from the rest of the midterm, where all three factions of the Ds preformed relatively similar.

Its most likely the difference between state and federal politics, along with the reasons I listed above.

The AG race isn't even close.

Anyway, in a lot of these down-ballot races, the Democrats can keep low profiles and ran inoffensive campaigns.

A full blown liberal would get blown out of the race.

Last I checked, 52-48 is a rather close margin, one to be proud of against the incumbent attorney general.

Anyway, there is little proof to suggest that Sinema won due to being a blue dog, or a full blown liberal would have been blown out, since, as stated before, there was almost no difference between how a candidate preformed and their ideology, and the downballot of AZ, with many running as progressives, were able to mount large comebacks.

Unless you have proof that Sinema won because of ideology, and not because it was a highly partisan election that, in a state trending D, went to the D thanks to a Blue Wave, then I wont concede.

[pppolitics]

The fact that Sinema and the green candidate are taking a combined comfortable majority only makes the party's abandonment of Garcia look more stupid.

Ducey is currently at 56% of the vote, so I don’t see how it would have made any real difference. The real wonder is how Dems managed to win 3 (and probably 4) statewide races despite the Gov blowout

Garcia ran too far to the left.

He needed support from independents and Republicans to win and he didn't get that.

If 2018 proved anything, its that voters dont care about ideology. The more likely reason for the blowout was Ducey's nuking of the airwaves, and the abandonment of Garcia by the Democrats. It also looks like his rise in approvals from the McCain replacement were also a boon, as he never dropped after that point.

From talking to people in Arizona, that's not necessary true.

McSally aligned herself too closely to Trump and that's why she lost.

Arizona's educated whites really dislike Trump.

They found Sinema palatable enough to be able to pull the lever for her.

That doesnt explain the SOS race, the closeness of the AG race, nor the state legislature gains made by the Ds. Neither does it match the results from the rest of the midterm, where all three factions of the Ds preformed relatively similar.

Its most likely the difference between state and federal politics, along with the reasons I listed above.

The AG race isn't even close.

Anyway, in a lot of these down-ballot races, the Democrats can keep low profiles and ran inoffensive campaigns.

A full blown liberal would get blown out of the race.

Last I checked, 52-48 is a rather close margin, one to be proud of against the incumbent attorney general.

Anyway, there is little proof to suggest that Sinema won due to being a blue dog, or a full blown liberal would have been blown out, since, as stated before, there was almost no difference between how a candidate preformed and their ideology, and the downballot of AZ, with many running as progressives, were able to mount large comebacks.

Unless you have proof that Sinema won because of ideology, and not because it was a highly partisan election that, in a state trending D, went to the D thanks to a Blue Wave, then I wont concede.

This isn't a competition.