AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Crazy, thy name is Ward and Arpaio

[Webnicz]

Oh my god, it's like they want to give us a free seat. For those of you claiming that this means the Trump vote will be split and allow McSally to (lmao) win the primary and the general election, 1) No, and 2) Even if McSally squeaks by, she loses the GE. Comfortably. You all can really take my word on that.

This^ Mcsally doesn't have a base, AZ is ground zero for anti establishment thinking on the GOP side.

Also love when my fellow AZ Dems on atlas and I team up to educate the outsiders about AZ politics

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I want some polls!

YES!

[SWE]

Tossup -> Lean D

[Webnicz]

Sounds like trump was leaning towards supporting Ward


https://twitter.com/laurieroberts/status/950796096455897089

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tossup -> Lean D Likely D

[YE]

How much appeal does Arpaio have out of Phoenix (speaking in terms of both the primary and GE)? I mean she probably won't win or even split the vote to allow McSally to win the primary, does Kelli Ward still have a base near Mohave County?

[IceSpear]

Tossup -> Lean D Likely D

Personally I'd say:

McSally -> Toss up
Ward -> Lean D
Arpaio -> Likely D

It's hard to say Dems aren't favored to pick up the seat at this point.

[Devout Centrist]

Arpaio was unseated last year in a landslide, even as Donald Trump won Maricopa County by 3 points. Should Arpaio win the nomination, this race is as good as over.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tossup -> Lean D Likely D

Personally I'd say:

McSally -> Toss up
Ward -> Lean D
Arpaio -> Likely D

It's hard to say Dems aren't favored to pick up the seat at this point.

I'd actually rate it Tilt D for McSally

[MaxQue]

Lock him up.

No felons in Senate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Arpaio and Ward will split the crazy vote, allowing McSally to win the primary by dominating the moderate vote.

The mythical Moderate Hero will not save you now.

Just to clarify, what I wrote above was a prediction, NOT an endorsement. I have not made an endorsement in this race and do not need anyone to save me.

[Cactus Jack]

Oh my god, it's like they want to give us a free seat. For those of you claiming that this means the Trump vote will be split and allow McSally to (lmao) win the primary and the general election, 1) No, and 2) Even if McSally squeaks by, she loses the GE. Comfortably. You all can really take my word on that.

This^ Mcsally doesn't have a base, AZ is ground zero for anti establishment thinking on the GOP side.

Also love when my fellow AZ Dems on atlas and I team up to educate the outsiders about AZ politics

Always happy to do that.

But yeah, McSally has the exact same issue as Flake. She's spent the last few months anti-triangulating like a pro by vacillating on every major Trump-related issue and recently earning the ire of Ducey and his entire wing of the party by openly gunning for McCain's seat before the man has even been declared terminally ill. She has no friends here any more.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Lock him up.

No felons in Senate.

I am totally against him.  But I believe he was convicted of a misdemeanor not a felony.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Oh my god, it's like they want to give us a free seat. For those of you claiming that this means the Trump vote will be split and allow McSally to (lmao) win the primary and the general election, 1) No, and 2) Even if McSally squeaks by, she loses the GE. Comfortably. You all can really take my word on that.

This^ Mcsally doesn't have a base, AZ is ground zero for anti establishment thinking on the GOP side.

Also love when my fellow AZ Dems on atlas and I team up to educate the outsiders about AZ politics

Always happy to do that.

But yeah, McSally has the exact same issue as Flake. She's spent the last few months anti-triangulating like a pro by vacillating on every major Trump-related issue and recently earning the ire of Ducey and his entire wing of the party by openly gunning for McCain's seat before the man has even been declared terminally ill. She has no friends here any more.

She enthusiastically supported AHCA, so I wouldn't say she vacillated on every Trump-related issue.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Oh my god, it's like they want to give us a free seat. For those of you claiming that this means the Trump vote will be split and allow McSally to (lmao) win the primary and the general election, 1) No, and 2) Even if McSally squeaks by, she loses the GE. Comfortably. You all can really take my word on that.

This^ Mcsally doesn't have a base, AZ is ground zero for anti establishment thinking on the GOP side.

Also love when my fellow AZ Dems on atlas and I team up to educate the outsiders about AZ politics

It is McSally with a capital S.  Right.

Doesn’t Arpaio cut Ward off at the knees?

The problem is that I do not think McCain will live through November.   Does McSally not get the appointment if he dies before the beginning of the filing period on April 30. After that date I would suspect she is left to fight off Ward and Arpaio.  Or does that also happen, if he dies before April 30.

If McSally does not get the appointment, who will?

[Arkansas Yankee]

Arpaio and Ward will split the crazy vote, allowing McSally to win the primary by dominating the moderate vote.

Arpaio can beat them both with his name rec + Trump endorsement

Trump is not going to support Arpaio.  Trump and McConnell are tied at the wasit now.

Bet Trump supports McSally.  After today’s Oval Office show that will not hurt her in November.

[The Arizonan]

If I were an AZ Dem I would be hesitant to push Arpaio through the primary and be 100% sure you can beat him in the general. Alabama came through for us in the end, but as far as we know now Arpaio won't be carrying the label "pedophile" into the race. Yes I think the Democratic chances go up in AZ if he is the opponent, but don't underestimate how deplorable the people of Arizona can choose to be.

Whoa, don't lump us all together with the deplorables.

[Nyvin]

Arpaio and Ward will split the crazy vote, allowing McSally to win the primary by dominating the moderate vote.

Arpaio can beat them both with his name rec + Trump endorsement

Trump is not going to support Arpaio.  Trump and McConnell are tied at the wasit now.

Bet Trump supports McSally.  After today’s Oval Office show that will not hurt her in November.

I thought Trump was going to support Ward.  There is this tweet:


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/898136462385979392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Farizona%2F2017%2F08%2F17%2Fpresident-donald-trump-endorse-kelli-ward-tweet-bashing-sen-jeff-flake%2F575649001%2F

[Cactus Jack]

If I were an AZ Dem I would be hesitant to push Arpaio through the primary and be 100% sure you can beat him in the general. Alabama came through for us in the end, but as far as we know now Arpaio won't be carrying the label "pedophile" into the race. Yes I think the Democratic chances go up in AZ if he is the opponent, but don't underestimate how deplorable the people of Arizona can choose to be.

My dude, I don't support pushing him through the primary because I don't like taking chances, but can we please not act like Arizona is even remotely as deplorable as Alabama?

[Roronoa D. Law]

If I were an AZ Dem I would be hesitant to push Arpaio through the primary and be 100% sure you can beat him in the general. Alabama came through for us in the end, but as far as we know now Arpaio won't be carrying the label "pedophile" into the race. Yes I think the Democratic chances go up in AZ if he is the opponent, but don't underestimate how deplorable the people of Arizona can choose to be.

My dude, I don't support pushing him through the primary because I don't like taking chances, but can we please not act like Arizona is even remotely as deplorable as Alabama?

Alabama is a very special state and Roy Moore still lost so I don't see how he could win in any other state. That still doesn't mean that voting for Arpaio is beneath AZ Republican voters. AZ has no run off and he can easily win the nomination unless the Moderate Republican majority I hear so much about saves McSally.

[Webnicz]

If I were an AZ Dem I would be hesitant to push Arpaio through the primary and be 100% sure you can beat him in the general. Alabama came through for us in the end, but as far as we know now Arpaio won't be carrying the label "pedophile" into the race. Yes I think the Democratic chances go up in AZ if he is the opponent, but don't underestimate how deplorable the people of Arizona can choose to be.

My dude, I don't support pushing him through the primary because I don't like taking chances, but can we please not act like Arizona is even remotely as deplorable as Alabama?

Alabama is a very special state and Roy Moore still lost so I don't see how he could win in any other state. That still doesn't mean that voting for Arpaio is beneath AZ Republican voters. AZ has no run off and he can easily win the nomination unless the Moderate Republican majority I hear so much about saves McSally.

anti establisment republicans are like 70% of the part base in AZ, and Arpaio is their god (lets not act like they are going to choose Ward over Arpaio) and "moderate" establishment republicans are about 30%. Hard to see how Mcsally would win in a three way yet alone two way race.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This is going to Roy Moore all over again. I love Sheriff Joe, but he’s ancient.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This is going to Roy Moore all over again. I love Sheriff Joe, but he’s ancient.

Don't let the liberal media elite tell you Joe can't win. Joe is a true American fighter, and would be a wonderful MAGA senator if nominated for AZ-Senator.

[Greedo punched first]

This race is tilt D.