AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[Young Conservative]

Literally nobody outside of rabid partisans on either side will care about this, which is exactly why McSally is doing it: to appease the rapid partisans that will vote in the Republican primary.

I agree. I really don't see this mattering in the general election. People who vote based on immigration reform will vote Sinema no matter what because they hate Trump. This will just help McSally keep the base happy and active.

There are some people who are pro Dreamers and voted Trump. See: AZ-08. Tipinerni was very pro DACA, Lesko was very pro Border Wall.

Trump won by 21, Lesko won by less than 5.

DACA is not why that race was close.

[NOVA Green]

Literally nobody outside of rabid partisans on either side will care about this, which is exactly why McSally is doing it: to appease the rapid partisans that will vote in the Republican primary.

I agree. I really don't see this mattering in the general election. People who vote based on immigration reform will vote Sinema no matter what because they hate Trump. This will just help McSally keep the base happy and active.

There are some people who are pro Dreamers and voted Trump. See: AZ-08. Tipinerni was very pro DACA, Lesko was very pro Border Wall.

Trump won by 21, Lesko won by less than 5.

DACA is not why that race was close.

Agreed.... the politics of immigration likely did play a significant role in the '16 AZ Sheriff Race within the precincts of CD-08 where former police officer Paul Penzone ran against Arpaio's record as County Sheriff, and pledged to run the Maricopa County Sheriff's department in a non-partisan manner.

I don't know to what extent DACA was really directly an issue in that race, as opposed to a waste of taxpayer dollars on Civil Rights lawsuits related to "Sheriff Joe's" extreme methods of dealing with inmates, racial profiling of Latinos, and Sheriff Joe's actions and response that led up to the "contempt of court" charges regarding racial profiling....

Penzone was able to achieve the highest level of support a Democrat had yet received within the Modern boundaries of CD-08, although Tiperneni was able to exceed that in April '18, despite extremely low turnout in the most heavily Latino and Democratic precincts within the Congressional District.

Had Latino turnout within the District been a bit higher, it is entirely plausible that this would have been a "flip district" in April....

November is still a long time away, and we will get a rematch in what will likely be a significantly higher overall turnout level within the district with competitive US Senate and AZ-GOV races on the ballot.

DACA will likely be an issue in CD-08 in November as a Candidate compare/contrast, but quite plausibly will be overshadowed by policies regarding Health Care, Education, and possibly taxation policy in a district where the vast majority of the voters are Seniors and Upper-Middle-Class Anglos....

Still, I do agree with DTC that there are plenty of people that support DACA and the Dreamers but still voted Trump for a wide variety of reasons.

DTC did make a good point by pulling an example from the Southwest, where the politics of immigration tend to run a bit hotter than in many other parts of the Country, especially among the Republican base, but honestly my thought is that Arizona Republicans will be doing themselves a disservice if they flip hard on Dreamers, and in attempt to win a Primary election will be yet another reason for Republican Leaning Indies to vote Democrat in November, not to mention how these types of policy positions might well create exactly the type of turnout levels among Working Class Latinos that are much less likely to vote in off-year elections in Arizona than General Election Years....

We shall see how well this strategy works both in the Republican Primaries and a few months later in the General Election, when these issues will still be fresh in voters minds....

[Dr. Arch]

Literally nobody outside of rabid partisans on either side will care about this, which is exactly why McSally is doing it: to appease the rapid partisans that will vote in the Republican primary.

I agree. I really don't see this mattering in the general election. People who vote based on immigration reform will vote Sinema no matter what because they hate Trump. This will just help McSally keep the base happy and active.

There are some people who are pro Dreamers and voted Trump. See: AZ-08. Tipinerni was very pro DACA, Lesko was very pro Border Wall.

Trump won by 21, Lesko won by less than 5.

DACA is not why that race was close.

No, it's because of that R+6 environment.

 

[Thunder98]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tbh, yeah, the polls will probably narrow, but acting like it's a pure coinflip is a bit too far.

[UncleSam]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

Eh, Sinema may be the favorite but the point of the article is that it is silly to take the poll result at face value this far out, with so many convoluting factors. Bear in mind also that people will believe Arizona is purple when they see it - Arizona has been a solidly red state for all of our lifetimes, and even with increasing Democratic competitiveness there it is hard to see it as fully a toss up state yet.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

Eh, Sinema may be the favorite but the point of the article is that it is silly to take the poll result at face value this far out, with so many convoluting factors. Bear in mind also that people will believe Arizona is purple when they see it - Arizona has been a solidly red state for all of our lifetimes, and even with increasing Democratic competitiveness there it is hard to see it as fully a toss up state yet.

Correct. That's why Ducey and others are rightly favored rn, but this race is different.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

[Nyvin]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

Eh, Sinema may be the favorite but the point of the article is that it is silly to take the poll result at face value this far out, with so many convoluting factors. Bear in mind also that people will believe Arizona is purple when they see it - Arizona has been a solidly red state for all of our lifetimes, and even with increasing Democratic competitiveness there it is hard to see it as fully a toss up state yet.

The same was probably said of Colorado in 2006.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

Eh, Sinema may be the favorite but the point of the article is that it is silly to take the poll result at face value this far out, with so many convoluting factors. Bear in mind also that people will believe Arizona is purple when they see it - Arizona has been a solidly red state for all of our lifetimes, and even with increasing Democratic competitiveness there it is hard to see it as fully a toss up state yet.

AZ is changing fast. Look at what happened in AZ-08. The teacher strikes, and radical immigration policies are absolutely imploding the AZ GOP. All of these polls showing dems doing really well, both in the generic ballot in AZ AND Krysten Sinema are *NOT* an anomaly.

It took me a long time to figure out why AZ-08 shifted so dramatically democratic, but after seeing all of these AZ polls, I finally understand: Suburban & Urban Arizona are changing super fast (and like 85% of AZ's population lives in urban/suburban areas, and many rural Arizonans are native americans who vote D anyways).


"Muh AZ was always republican" would be making the same mistake as dems in West Virginia in 2000... sh!t can change in the blink of an eye.

[Thunder98]

I still think AZ is still lean to likely Sinema.

[Zaybay]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

Eh, Sinema may be the favorite but the point of the article is that it is silly to take the poll result at face value this far out, with so many convoluting factors. Bear in mind also that people will believe Arizona is purple when they see it - Arizona has been a solidly red state for all of our lifetimes, and even with increasing Democratic competitiveness there it is hard to see it as fully a toss up state yet.

AZ is changing fast. Look at what happened in AZ-08. The teacher strikes, and radical immigration policies are absolutely imploding the AZ GOP. All of these polls showing dems doing really well, both in the generic ballot in AZ AND Krysten Sinema are *NOT* an anomaly.

It took me a long time to figure out why AZ-08 shifted so dramatically democratic, but after seeing all of these AZ polls, I finally understand: Suburban & Urban Arizona are changing super fast (and like 85% of AZ's population lives in urban/suburban areas, and many rural Arizonans are native americans who vote D anyways).


"Muh AZ was always republican" would be making the same mistake as dems in West Virginia in 2000... sh!t can change in the blink of an eye.

I think this is whats happening as well. The population in Urban areas such as Phoenix is exploding and the Suburbs around it are bluing, possibly due to the natural expansion of cities or the browning of suburbs or some other reason. People keep putting Arizona as a tossup for senate or likely R for Gov, but I see Arizona as the next sort of VA, barely any noticeable shift, and then BAM. It was suppose to be NC, but Ill take AZ any day.

[DrScholl]

One of Sinema's advantages is being from the population center of the state. In her congressional races her ads would have been seen by most of the state considering how large the Phoenix market is.

[wesmoorenerd]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

Eh, Sinema may be the favorite but the point of the article is that it is silly to take the poll result at face value this far out, with so many convoluting factors. Bear in mind also that people will believe Arizona is purple when they see it - Arizona has been a solidly red state for all of our lifetimes, and even with increasing Democratic competitiveness there it is hard to see it as fully a toss up state yet.

AZ is changing fast. Look at what happened in AZ-08. The teacher strikes, and radical immigration policies are absolutely imploding the AZ GOP. All of these polls showing dems doing really well, both in the generic ballot in AZ AND Krysten Sinema are *NOT* an anomaly.

It took me a long time to figure out why AZ-08 shifted so dramatically democratic, but after seeing all of these AZ polls, I finally understand: Suburban & Urban Arizona are changing super fast (and like 85% of AZ's population lives in urban/suburban areas, and many rural Arizonans are native americans who vote D anyways).


"Muh AZ was always republican" would be making the same mistake as dems in West Virginia in 2000... sh!t can change in the blink of an eye.

I think this is whats happening as well. The population in Urban areas such as Phoenix is exploding and the Suburbs around it are bluing, possibly due to the natural expansion of cities or the browning of suburbs or some other reason. People keep putting Arizona as a tossup for senate or likely R for Gov, but I see Arizona as the next sort of VA, barely any noticeable shift, and then BAM. It was suppose to be NC, but Ill take AZ any day.

I'm suspicious of the whole "NC trend has stalled" narrative. The underlying factors behind NC's D trend haven't changed at all. More people are moving in, Charlotte and the Triangle are growing, etc. Just because the GOP has gotten lucky with a few races there (Presidential 2012, Senate 2014 to name a few) doesn't mean it's not a purple state.

[wesmoorenerd]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

Eh, Sinema may be the favorite but the point of the article is that it is silly to take the poll result at face value this far out, with so many convoluting factors. Bear in mind also that people will believe Arizona is purple when they see it - Arizona has been a solidly red state for all of our lifetimes, and even with increasing Democratic competitiveness there it is hard to see it as fully a toss up state yet.

AZ is changing fast. Look at what happened in AZ-08. The teacher strikes, and radical immigration policies are absolutely imploding the AZ GOP. All of these polls showing dems doing really well, both in the generic ballot in AZ AND Krysten Sinema are *NOT* an anomaly.

It took me a long time to figure out why AZ-08 shifted so dramatically democratic, but after seeing all of these AZ polls, I finally understand: Suburban & Urban Arizona are changing super fast (and like 85% of AZ's population lives in urban/suburban areas, and many rural Arizonans are native americans who vote D anyways).


"Muh AZ was always republican" would be making the same mistake as dems in West Virginia in 2000... sh!t can change in the blink of an eye.

I think this is whats happening as well. The population in Urban areas such as Phoenix is exploding and the Suburbs around it are bluing, possibly due to the natural expansion of cities or the browning of suburbs or some other reason. People keep putting Arizona as a tossup for senate or likely R for Gov, but I see Arizona as the next sort of VA, barely any noticeable shift, and then BAM. It was suppose to be NC, but Ill take AZ any day.

I'm suspicious of the whole "NC trend has stalled" narrative. The underlying factors behind NC's D trend haven't changed at all. More people are moving in, Charlotte and the Triangle are growing, etc. Just because the GOP has gotten lucky with a few races there (Presidential 2012, Senate 2014 to name a few) doesn't mean it's not a purple state.

Democrats do keep getting burned in NC it seems. Though it often is easy to forget though that despite how bad 2016 was, Dems still gained the Governorship there.

Anyways, I think NC starts at Leans R in the 2020 Presidential race contingent on the D nominee. Tossup for Senate. Arizona is probably going to be in play no matter who Dems run based on the polls coming out there,so I think tossup is justifiable

I've said it before and I'll say it again: NC often comes in clutch for Republicans, but I think people read into that too hard. Sure, Obama lost it in 2012 and Hagan lost in 2014, but it was close on both occasions and Tillis' win was pretty fluky anyway.

I think it's solidly a tossup in both races. It'll be close either way in the Presidential race, but Tillis is a remarkably weak incumbent and the Democrats have a pretty strong bench like Anthony Foxx and Jeff Jackson.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have a hunch Tillis loses to someone like Jackson even if Trump wins NC again. I don’t see any way he overperforms Trump. Like, who the hell would be a PresiDem—Tillis voter? Lol

Tillis might outperform Trump in some suburban areas, allowing him to sneak through with another win. It would be tough, but it's possible.
However, the scenario you outlined is both more likely and likely in its own right. What Tillis needs to do is rebrand himself to be like Burr. It's kind of hard to see that happening.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is everyone talking about North Carolina in a thread about Arizona?

[wesmoorenerd]

I have a hunch Tillis loses to someone like Jackson even if Trump wins NC again. I don’t see any way he overperforms Trump. Like, who the hell would be a PresiDem—Tillis voter? Lol

Tillis might outperform Trump in some suburban areas, allowing him to sneak through with another win. It would be tough, but it's possible.
However, the scenario you outlined is both more likely and likely in its own right. What Tillis needs to do is rebrand himself to be like Burr. It's kind of hard to see that happening.

I mean, I've got family in suburban Charlotte (Pittenger's district) and I know the area pretty well. Those suburban areas tend to dislike Trump, just as they do in the rest of the country. However, Tillis is just not a strong incumbent, period. Contrast that with Burr, who's a good fit for the state. Tillis doesn't have the same kind of brand and his relative strength in the suburbs doesn't make up for his general weaknesses.

[Suburbia]

Joe Arpaio has a damaged legacy.

He is a loser right now, he should drop out. He's 85 years old, and the same people who attack John McCain for being too old, complain about him being old support a old man for Senate.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/02/krysten-sinema-democrats-senate-chuck-schumer-687120

Sinema says she won't support Schumer for party leader

I think she's really going a little bit too far with the whole moderate schtick. I mean, every sign points to her being another Gillibrand, a progressive masquerading as a conservadem during her time in the House before becoming a progressive in the Senate once again. Her past certainly wouldn't suggest her being a conservative Democrat, so why is she going with a move even more radical than what Manchin and Heitkamp are doing? Like, I get why House candidates go after Pelosi, she's been in power forever and is incredibly unpopular, but Schumer's only been party leader for a few years. I just think Sinema is going a little bit too far to get elected (and honestly, she doesn't need to, she's definitely the favorite at this point).

[Virginiá]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/02/krysten-sinema-democrats-senate-chuck-schumer-687120

Sinema says she won't support Schumer for party leader

I think she's really going a little bit too far with the whole moderate schtick. I mean, every sign points to her being another Gillibrand, a progressive masquerading as a conservadem during her time in the House before becoming a progressive in the Senate once again. Her past certainly wouldn't suggest her being a conservative Democrat, so why is she going with a move even more radical than what Manchin and Heitkamp are doing? Like, I get why House candidates go after Pelosi, she's been in power forever and is incredibly unpopular, but Schumer's only been party leader for a few years. I just think Sinema is going a little bit too far to get elected (and honestly, she doesn't need to, she's definitely the favorite at this point).

That position seems kind of dangerous, doesn't it? What if Democrats flip the Senate with a 51-49 majority? Is she just not going to vote for Schumer and actually force a new majority leader? I don't know who told her that Chuck was so toxic she needed to publicly back away, or if she came up with that herself, but whoever did, they don't seem very smart. The voters on the fence by and large don't give a crap about Chuck Schumer, and that is if they even know who he is in the first place.

[Zaybay]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/02/krysten-sinema-democrats-senate-chuck-schumer-687120

Sinema says she won't support Schumer for party leader

I think she's really going a little bit too far with the whole moderate schtick. I mean, every sign points to her being another Gillibrand, a progressive masquerading as a conservadem during her time in the House before becoming a progressive in the Senate once again. Her past certainly wouldn't suggest her being a conservative Democrat, so why is she going with a move even more radical than what Manchin and Heitkamp are doing? Like, I get why House candidates go after Pelosi, she's been in power forever and is incredibly unpopular, but Schumer's only been party leader for a few years. I just think Sinema is going a little bit too far to get elected (and honestly, she doesn't need to, she's definitely the favorite at this point).

I believe she is a progressive masquerading as a conservadem, but I think Gillibrand is mostly being progressive for opportunism rather than being one at heart. My theory is that she is..."playing 4D Chess"...god, I hate that phrase.

If she goes progressive as a senator, she will likely support a more progressive senator to be leader, such as Elizabeth Warren. So, she is appealing to the conservatives who hate Chuck Schumer for election, but then she can play the "I wasnt specific" card and support a progressive challenger.

 Either that or she really has embraced the Conservadem and wants Joe Manchin to be the Senate Democratic leader. Either or.

[IceSpear]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/02/krysten-sinema-democrats-senate-chuck-schumer-687120

Sinema says she won't support Schumer for party leader

I think she's really going a little bit too far with the whole moderate schtick. I mean, every sign points to her being another Gillibrand, a progressive masquerading as a conservadem during her time in the House before becoming a progressive in the Senate once again. Her past certainly wouldn't suggest her being a conservative Democrat, so why is she going with a move even more radical than what Manchin and Heitkamp are doing? Like, I get why House candidates go after Pelosi, she's been in power forever and is incredibly unpopular, but Schumer's only been party leader for a few years. I just think Sinema is going a little bit too far to get elected (and honestly, she doesn't need to, she's definitely the favorite at this point).

That position seems kind of dangerous, doesn't it? What if Democrats flip the Senate with a 51-49 majority? Is she just not going to vote for Schumer and actually force a new majority leader? I don't know who told her that Chuck was so toxic she needed to publicly back away, or if she came up with that herself, but whoever did, they don't seem very smart. The voters on the fence by and large don't give a crap about Chuck Schumer, and that is if they even know who he is in the first place.

Yeah, Schumer isn't Pelosi, he's mostly anonymous. If anything this calls more attention to the issue than there otherwise would be.

Sinema is overrated. She should be hammering McSally for being the handpicked candidate of the toxic Mitch McConnell, instead she's bashing a random guy that probably has <50% name recognition in Arizona, much of which is from locked in partisans.

[Webnicz]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/02/krysten-sinema-democrats-senate-chuck-schumer-687120

Sinema says she won't support Schumer for party leader

I think she's really going a little bit too far with the whole moderate schtick. I mean, every sign points to her being another Gillibrand, a progressive masquerading as a conservadem during her time in the House before becoming a progressive in the Senate once again. Her past certainly wouldn't suggest her being a conservative Democrat, so why is she going with a move even more radical than what Manchin and Heitkamp are doing? Like, I get why House candidates go after Pelosi, she's been in power forever and is incredibly unpopular, but Schumer's only been party leader for a few years. I just think Sinema is going a little bit too far to get elected (and honestly, she doesn't need to, she's definitely the favorite at this point).

I do not see Sinema going in the direction of Gilibrand, if she is in the senate I expect her to be a maverick of sorts against her own party, shes always been super anti establishment. Some dems who are anti establishment go to the left, but for sinema being anti establishment means going to the right, because national democrats are too liberal and out of touch, something I think a lot can get behind.

something unique about Sinema is that to her "center left" means ditching party elites whereas most center left politicians cozzy up to the establishement. She is known to be a master political calculator, might be interesting.