NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Oryxslayer]

When will the entrance polls be released?

One can assume @ noon Pacific Time (3pm Eastern) when the voting starts.

Traditionally, entrance polls are a bunch of whack since voters haven't even voted. Since so many people voted early (throwing turnout models for a loop, but that's different) the entrance poll is going to be even more useless.

[Oryxslayer]

I whipped up a composite map of 2012-2016 elections, splitting the state into 15 equally-sized districts based on the average Democratic vote (i.e. each district has approximately 100k potential Democratic voters).

It's important to remember that around 90% of the Democratic vote exists in the denser portions of Clark and Washoe. That one dark green district that covers the vast, vast majority of the state is only 1/15 of the likely Democratic vote - so unless one candidate is just running away with it in these communities, it's not a big deal or indicative of anything.

These rural precincts are important though because they get at least 1 SDE so they can make a difference if one candidate sweeps them.

Interesting map btw.

These caucuses are mini-electoral colleges in that regard, since you cannot go below 1 in a bunch of the rural underpopulated areas. However, it isn't that important except in a close race where the 85%+ of delegates coming from the urban and suburban areas break near evenly, which has happened in the past.

[Oryxslayer]

Morning, y'all!

For comparisons' sake with today's results, I whipped up a quick visual guide showing an overview of the 2016 and 2008 Democratic Caucuses in Nevada:

snip

Fox News was talking to a group of people anecdotally. They seemed to be Republicans. One was a disabled White male vet, another a White woman and another an engineer White man. I think they all knew each other. The engineer said that he thinks Trump will win Nevada because of the economy with stuff being built everywhere. The woman said she wants Trump, but her female friend doesn't want any of the Democrats but still also don't want Trump because of the way he talks, and then the vet said that he wants Trump, and that when he gets people to open up about politics they want Trump.

So this is obviously all anecdotal and doesn't mean a whole lot, but the early voting turnout is low in Nevada so far. Is this all developing a picture that Dems could be headed for trouble in Nevada? Or, another possibility is that Democrats have been so focused on Iowa and NH and then many candidates like Biden were planning on mostly skipping Nevada to go straight to SC so Nevada just hasn't had the time and money pumped into it to get people to the polls. I actually lean towards the latter.

Huh? 75,000 people voted early in Nevada compared to 84,000 people who caucused in 2016. That means that we are already to 89.28% of the total caucus vote of 2016.

If anything, models are going to be broken today since turnout may double 2016, so the electorates composition is up in the air. It reminds me of Michigan, and how pollsters had to model based on the shoddy data from 2008.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT is live.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/22/us/elections/results-nevada-caucus.html

[Oryxslayer]

CNN saying the Biden campaign is hoping for a first/second place position. This is only the most recent failure of expectation setting from the Biden campaign, something that his campaign has failed at consistently. His campaign should do decently, but shooting high won't help if he drops off once again.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder as we get close to the entrance poll period, the entrance poll could be rather far off from the final results depending on whether the early vote was incorporated into it's projections.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1231298902600474625?s=19

So turnout will likely be way up on 2016, but since people preferred to vote early, it won't be a Titanic shift

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder as we get close to the entrance poll period, the entrance poll could be rather far off from the final results depending on whether the early vote was incorporated into it's projections.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder as we get close to the entrance poll period, the entrance poll could be rather far off from the final results depending on whether the early vote was incorporated into it's projections.

I know I'm fighting against a tidal wave here, but seriously,  let's try and put some breaks to on the entrance poll hype train, since we so far have heard nothing about the early vote in regards to the entrance poll.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder as we get close to the entrance poll period, the entrance poll could be rather far off from the final results depending on whether the early vote was incorporated into it's projections.

I know I'm fighting against a title wave here, but seriously,  let's try and put some breaks to on the entrance poll hype train, since we so far have heard nothing about the early vote in regards to the entrance poll.

MSNBC said the entrance poll results they had so far were ONLY early vote.

CNN while talking about the early voting implied the entrance poll data and early voters were separate groups. They cited the 51% number and than said "they heard from early voting it was similarly 50%." So not helping.

[Oryxslayer]

Bernie wins random precinct in a landslide:

https://twitter.com/MayhewMayhem/status/1231303250063675392

Actually important. There were tales last week that Pete and Bernie were the only ones with offices or resources in the 'empty' precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

Quick request, but does anyone remember the website that had New Hampshire results tricking in at a quicker rate than news sites?

DDHQ. However, primaries are different from caucuses. Things only move as fast as people.

[Oryxslayer]

CNN has Bernie winning 66% at (one of) the university precincts in Sparks. Bigger story may be the small size, but Nevada's precincts are more numerous than Iowa.

When do we get early vote results?

They are counted at the same time as day of votes. So they will be reported at the same time as the day of votes. This has to be done because early votes need to be tested for viability just like in person ones.

[Oryxslayer]

CNN's Sparks university precinct has Sanders viable at 47%, warren at 14.7, rest below. Here's a good place to explain the early vote ballot. Voters choices will be pushed upwards like RCV, starting with lowest candidate with votes. So here, all Klobuchar voters will be pushed upwards in their ev, to try and make others viable.

[Oryxslayer]

Considering the caucus RCV math appears to be proceeding smoothly on the news networks, NV at least doesn't appear to be on track to repeat Iowa.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT is also getting precincts now. Looks like the first one was from North Las Vegas.

[Oryxslayer]

It was malpractice that warren team didn’t focus on early vote

More that Warren surged after her debate performance. So there is a gap between the EV and day of vote.

[Oryxslayer]

Does anyone have a reason for the huge dropoff between first and final alignment votes on nyt? Even Bernie loses a ton of votes, and one would hope since he is in first, he holds all his voters. I can only assume it's a bug.

[Oryxslayer]

Okay, I have the answer to the discrepancy between first and final round votes.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1231331562366607364?s=19

[Oryxslayer]

Twitter is just an endless stream of Bernie winning different precincts, so I am going to stop posting them, there are just too many, I can't keep up.

I mean if you are winning 15%, you should be winning almost everything. The bigger question is who is below Bernie in said precincts, and by how much. For example,  I doubt Biden maintains his lead right now when at 1%, the returns are dominated by AA North Las Vegas for instance.

[Oryxslayer]

Before anyone complains why the networks haven't called anything yet, they are using the data they get from the NV Democratic Party and they so far are reporting 0%.

Well, nyt only has 1% of precincts. So if anything it's Atlas overreacting as usual to the earliest, scattered, and limited results. If they don't have anything after nyt hits 5/10%, then we get inquisitive.

[Oryxslayer]

Hey CNN has a buttigieg precinct on TV. I suspect he may sweep/do well in the Henderson area, which will put him over.

Also CNN has <1% now. All From Washoe.

[Oryxslayer]

CNN actually now ahead of nyt, they got their Washoe numbers and the previously known Clark stuff.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking at the Carson City precincts, it looks like steyer may have been the beneficiary of a 'enemy of my enemy' pact against Bernie in a precinct. The only other place steyer is doing well is in the North Las Vegas AA precincts, which have been his target group.

[Oryxslayer]

CNN:

"you look a whole lot better with a whole lot of one's next to your naame."

"Similar to how everyone's a Yankees fan."

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"WHAT?!?"