NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[2016]

Biden really should change his Position on Medicare for All cuz he gets dodged by it EVERY SINGLE STATE.

CNN Entrance Poll also shows 51 % are First-Time Caucus Goers suggesting this could be big for Sanders.

[Gass3268]

Reminder as we get close to the entrance poll period, the entrance poll could be rather far off from the final results depending on whether the early vote was incorporated into it's projections.

I know I'm fighting against a title wave here, but seriously,  let's try and put some breaks to on the entrance poll hype train, since we so far have heard nothing about the early vote in regards to the entrance poll.

MSNBC (Steve Kornacki) said the entrance poll results they had so far were ONLY early vote.

So an exit poll?

[Mr. Morden]

CNN says it's ~50% saying they're first time caucus goers both among early voters and today's voters, implying that their entrance poll includes both.

[YE]

Where if I was still registered here my caucus location would be:

https://twitter.com/michaelnaft/status/1231294911242067968?s=21

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder as we get close to the entrance poll period, the entrance poll could be rather far off from the final results depending on whether the early vote was incorporated into it's projections.

I know I'm fighting against a title wave here, but seriously,  let's try and put some breaks to on the entrance poll hype train, since we so far have heard nothing about the early vote in regards to the entrance poll.

MSNBC said the entrance poll results they had so far were ONLY early vote.

CNN while talking about the early voting implied the entrance poll data and early voters were separate groups. They cited the 51% number and than said "they heard from early voting it was similarly 50%." So not helping.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/kendallkarson/status/1231304966796537857

[Mehmentum]

Reminder as we get close to the entrance poll period, the entrance poll could be rather far off from the final results depending on whether the early vote was incorporated into it's projections.

I know I'm fighting against a title wave here, but seriously,  let's try and put some breaks to on the entrance poll hype train, since we so far have heard nothing about the early vote in regards to the entrance poll.

MSNBC (Steve Kornacki) said the entrance poll results they had so far were ONLY early vote.

CNN says it's ~50% saying they're first time caucus goers both among early voters and today's voters, implying that their entrance poll includes both.

[John Dule]

If that first-time caucusgoer number and the M4A polling are both correct, then Bernie might actually curbstomp here.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/kendallkarson/status/1231304966796537857

Bad for Warren

[Tender Branson]

The more I hear on CNN from Dana Bash, the more concerned I am that the result processing will be a total chaos again ...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Final ranking prediction

1. Sanders (Wins final round by 6-8%)
2  Buttigieg
3. Warren
---Below viability---
4. Biden
5. Klobuchar
6. Steyer

Basically an Iowa repeat in terms of ranking. The percentages may vary wildly

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1231300362570649600

[Tender Branson]

So, if CNN shows results of the entrance poll (Sanders x% etc.) soon, will this be based on early votes only, today’s voters only, or both ?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Bernie wins random precinct in a landslide:

https://twitter.com/MayhewMayhem/status/1231303250063675392

[Walmart_shopper]

51% say they're first time caucus-goers.

It appears that the real Bernie revolution only needed a state not entirely full of Karens to finally get off the ground. Somehow I'm not surprised that Sanders didn't quite go off in states full of middle aged white people.

[Mr. Morden]

From CNN TV entrance poll:

age:
under 30: 18%
30-44: 20%
45-64: 35%
over 65: 27%

[Dr. Arch]

Bernie wins random precinct in a landslide:

https://twitter.com/MayhewMayhem/status/1231303250063675392

That's a 75% of however much that precinct allocates.

[Tender Branson]

From what I understand from David Chalian, the entrance poll results are only TODAYs voters.

Early voters excluded !

[AGA]

Biden really should change his Position on Medicare for All cuz he gets dodged by it EVERY SINGLE STATE.

Biden supporters aren't looking for Sanders 2.0.

[Gass3268]

51% say they're first time caucus-goers.

It appears that the real Bernie revolution only needed a state not entirely full of Karens to finally get off the ground. Somehow I'm not surprised that Sanders didn't quite go off in states full of middle aged white people.

Even though those were literally some of his best demographics in 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

Bernie wins random precinct in a landslide:

https://twitter.com/MayhewMayhem/status/1231303250063675392

Actually important. There were tales last week that Pete and Bernie were the only ones with offices or resources in the 'empty' precincts.

[Mehmentum]

From CNN TV entrance poll:

age:
under 30: 18%
30-44: 20%
45-64: 35%
over 65: 27%

Basically identical to 2016.

Of course we have no idea if this includes EV or caucus day, or how much, and as always these are subject to change, so...

[Gass3268]

From what I understand from David Chalian, the entrance poll results are only TODAYs voters.

Early voters excluded !

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1231306160998879232?s=20

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

66%, very white, itll prolly go down as more hispanic workers come when their jobs end at the day, rn prolly a lot of white office workers on lunch break.

[AGA]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1231300362570649600

Abolish caucuses.