NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Senator Cris]

Entrance poll is about first preferences, no realignment.

[Gass3268]

They are now getting today vote as well.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Kornacki says they are getting updated exit polls NOW with same-day as well as early vote, so they are updating.

Kornacki notes that Bernie is winning moderates.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there a link to only the entrance/exit poll numbers?

[Volrath50]

Claire McCaskill on MSNBC says it doesn't matter that Bernie wins, the real story is who comes in 2nd/3rd/etc.

lol

What is with this media obsession with declaring 2nd/3rd place "the real winner"?

I couldn't get over it when the media declared Marco Rubio the "real winner" of Iowa in 2016 with his 3rd place finish, and they keep doing it, it's bizarre and stupid.

[Skill and Chance]

Increasingly looks like Bernie's base this time is in the Southwest.  We may seriously need to reevaluate what a Bernie GE would look like relative to Generic Dem.  Beto/Sinema numbers in Texas/Arizona seem increasingly plausible.  At the same time, he can't count on doing better than Clinton in the Midwest.  

[We Live in Black and White]

Claire McCaskill on MSNBC says it doesn't matter that Bernie wins, the real story is who comes in 2nd/3rd/etc.

lol

Hard to make that argument when second place might not even get delegates.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1231312331344416771

[Ebsy]

If it is only early vote, that is even worse news for biden

Biden’s campaign specifically focused on Black early vote in this race

Many thanks to the Biden campaign for getting a bunch of Bernie voters to the polls!

[atheist4thecause]

When do we get early vote results?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

CNN reporting on 1st round for a precinct in Sparks NV:

Bernie 65.8%
Warren 23.7%
Biden 10.5%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I know they reported on early voting numbers earlier, but I get the feeling CNN is not up to speed on just how much of a percentage of the electorate got it over with earlier in the week

[AussieB]

Trump will get 70-75% of the white vote if Bernie is the nominee.

We shall see Renly, we shall see

[Diabolical Materialism]

Trump will get 70-75% of the white vote if Bernie is the nominee.

I don't think you understand white people very well.

I don't think you understand suburban America very well.

Why would anyone want to

[SN2903]

Trump will get 70-75% of the white vote if Bernie is the nominee.

Putting you on ignore. You clearly do not have the fundamental understanding of polarization and American politics to be a worthy contributor.

Ok. Yet I predicted the 2016 election. Bernie is doing terrible with whites so far in this primary.

[MillennialModerate]

I would bet a serious amount on the results being this order:

1. Sanders
2. Pete
3. Warren
4. Biden
5. Steyer
6. Amy
7. Gabbard

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Increasingly looks like Bernie's base this time is in the Southwest.  We may seriously need to reevaluate what a Bernie GE would look like relative to Generic Dem.  Beto/Sinema numbers in Texas/Arizona seem increasingly plausible.  At the same time, he can't count on doing better than Clinton in the Midwest.  

I agree, that is also consistent with the poll showing Bernie only down by 2 in TX. Bernie should go for a South-Western strategy in the General.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/nevada-democratic-caucuses/card/1582395516049

Nevada Says Counting Will Be Slower Than Last Time

In hopes of avoiding the sort of embarrassment triggered by a results-reporting debacle following Iowa’s Feb. 3 caucuses, Nevada Democrats held classes this week to train volunteers on a new software tool to calculate totals from midday caucuses in places like schools, community centers and casinos. In 2016, we had a winner shortly after 5 p.m. EST. but this time, results may not come quickly.

“The Nevada Democratic Party’s number one priority is accuracy,” spokeswoman Molly Forgey said in a statement. “While the additional reporting requirements will slow the process from prior caucuses, our plan is to be able to release results on Caucus Day.”

The Nevada State Democratic Party also said it is watching out for the potential spread of false information about the caucus process, and is encouraging anyone who might notice such suspicious activity to report it.

“Our team across the state is working to make sure Nevada Democrats have the correct information they need to participate in the caucus process,” said a post on the state party’s official Twitter account on Saturday. The state party’s post didn’t say that it was responding to any specific issue. Rather, it appeared to be aimed at encouraging general awareness.

Nevada Democrats Say They Have Processed Nearly All Early Ballots

The Nevada State Democratic Party said it had processed all the roughly 75,000 early vote ballots, and data entry was completed ahead of its caucuses Saturday.

State party spokeswoman Molly Forgey, in a statement Saturday morning, said the results from four days of early voting will be included in caucus day results today as planned.

"When Nevadans show up to their precinct today to caucus, their neighbors’ early votes will be counted alongside them," she said. "Massive turnout, particularly on the final day of early voting, has meant lots of time-consuming data entry."

[Matty]

Bernie’s strength with Hispanics blows a hole wide open in the GOP establishment talking point that Hispanics are “naturally conservative”

[BP🌹]

Claire McCaskill on MSNBC says it doesn't matter that Bernie wins, the real story is who comes in 2nd/3rd/etc.

lol

What is with this media obsession with declaring 2nd/3rd place "the real winner"?

It should be obvious why Air Claire only cares about second place.

[W]

1st round Sparks, NV (CNN) P#6202

48 Sanders
15 Warren
12 Buttigieg
11 Steyer
8 Biden
0 Others

[SN2903]

Increasingly looks like Bernie's base this time is in the Southwest.  We may seriously need to reevaluate what a Bernie GE would look like relative to Generic Dem.  Beto/Sinema numbers in Texas/Arizona seem increasingly plausible.  At the same time, he can't count on doing better than Clinton in the Midwest.  

Bernie def worse in the Midwest than Clinton. He is way too liberal.

[Oryxslayer]

CNN has Bernie winning 66% at (one of) the university precincts in Sparks. Bigger story may be the small size, but Nevada's precincts are more numerous than Iowa.

When do we get early vote results?

They are counted at the same time as day of votes. So they will be reported at the same time as the day of votes. This has to be done because early votes need to be tested for viability just like in person ones.

[n1240]

Will the NSDP have a page reporting precinct level results like they did in 2016 and how Iowa did this year? I'm trying to search for it but I'm unable to find anything.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The only candidates viable at a Strip/Casino caucus are Bernie and Biden. Bigger group for Bernie "strongly in favor of Bernie" (on MSNBC). They are trying to get Warren people to come over, Warren was not viable.