Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1385435777400807426
VAGOP moment

Just about the dumbest state GOP in the country.

Is this meme I just made any good?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'd rate it Likely D. Closer to Safe D than Lean D.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

Iowa’s gubernatorial election WAS competitive in 2018.

This.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Well, but so called "Fake Virginia" makes up a larger share of the population. And that's how elections are won.

Republicans like SirWoodbury don't actually believe in democracy.

Then why do you guys always vote in people that want to subjugate the rest of the state, why do you always have to impose crap that nobody outside of your places want, and always infringe on other people's rights. If you came to Virginia to work that's fine, but why do you guys always have to look down on the state's natives and force your views upon them?

do you seriously believe this or do you not understand how an election works? They are won by who gets the most votes not who wins the most land area.

Land doesn't vote, people do.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will McAuliffe lose any counties in the primary?

Probably.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is he trying to lose?

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1433187809368723456

Does Trumpkin know that Virginia is an extremely pro-choice state? Why would he think this is a winning message, abortion rights are an extremely important issue to many Virginians.

This is not a message designed to appeal to hardcore Democratic partisans on an obscure election forum or single-issue pro-choice voters who favor zero restrictions on abortion whatsoever. If anyone sees the message he’s pushing and comes to the conclusion that it’s typical of a candidate who is "trying to lose," they have no idea what they’re talking about and are forcing their bias on us. The editorializing of the "news" in this thread is tiresome — believe it or not, not everything is actually good news for your party.

Youngkin is clearly trying to pivot away from abortion, towards things he is likelier to be seen as 'strong' in. Him saying his opponent is "fearmongering" on abortion is a dead giveaway of this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamYoungkin/status/1451684385498009601

A literal shrug of the shoulders

A literal shrug of the shoulders would be the best response to questions about someone else's offensive Halloween costume from 40 years ago.

This.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?

You're right, but I think it's just a matter of creating more D intensity. If Ds get a "win" this weekend, there's more enthusiasm from the base to go and vote on Tuesday. Otherwise, some may feel deflated.

There also may be a few independents who see the gridlock in Washington as a reason to vote R, but may come home to Ds if they actually see sh**t getting done.

Not that intensity isn't good, but ultimately, wouldn't the people who turned out due to a successful package being passed already be quite likely to vote to begin with? (or even already voted)
Fair point on Independents though. Every vote matters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?

In a close race the margins can make all the difference and this also could pointaly boost dem enthusiasm heading into the election

Worth noting that a bunch of Democrats have already early voted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?

In a close race the margins can make all the difference and this also could pointaly boost dem enthusiasm heading into the election

Worth noting that a bunch of Democrats have already early voted.

True, but some Dems and even some dem leaning independent voters have still not voted yet.

The Dems actually gets something done could sway at lest some of them to come off the fence and go vote

The vast majority of such Dems/Dem-leaning Indies probably aren't "on the fence" in any real way and plan on voting on Election Day or whatnot.
They weren't about to not vote because Ds couldn't pass the bill in time. There are state-level issues and this is a state-level election. And Youngkin seems to generate a very negative reaction from Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

People are writing McAuliffe's obituary way too early.
He still has a sizable chance to win still. And he has a bunch of votes banked in with early voting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

People are writing McAuliffe's obituary way too early.
He still has a sizable chance to win still. And he has a bunch of votes banked in with early voting.

Im not wriiting McAuliffe's obituary at all

especially not based on 1 outlier poll that does not even match up with a poll that literally came out yesterday showing McAuliffe ahead by 1

The fact is, no other poll is showing results even close to this and again, not even the Trafalgar group has put out a poll like this

Even if the poll was accurate somehow - that might still not make it Safe Youngkin. People don't necessarily understand this, but early voting alters the dynamics of how decisive late polling swings can be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well it looks like one of my predictions will definitely be right.  This thread will get to 100 pages before Election Day.

If there's one thing Atlas loves, it's talking about one of the two Virginias.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw, I stated before that I believe this race is a Tossup, I stand by that. But I still see McAuliffe as likelier to win, and by a margin of 4 points. Feels a bit high, but whatevs.
NonSwingVoter has worded it better than I could:

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then.  

There's still only minimal reason to believe that the early vote in Northern Virginia won't be hugely helpful for Democrats, and that is a lot of votes banked in for McAuliffe. Youngkin has to do get very good turnout in the Election Day vote in the rest of Virginia for him to win. I am unsure what to expect here, but make no mistake, this is still McAuliffe-favored.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw, I stated before that I believe this race is a Tossup, I stand by that. But I still see McAuliffe as likelier to win, and by a margin of 4 points. Feels a bit high, but whatevs.
NonSwingVoter has worded it better than I could:

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then. 

There's still only minimal reason to believe that the early vote in Northern Virginia won't be hugely helpful for Democrats, and that is a lot of votes banked in for McAuliffe. Youngkin has to do get very good turnout in the Election Day vote in the rest of Virginia for him to win. I am unsure what to expect here, but make no mistake, this is still McAuliffe-favored.

The people who vote early are rarely swing voters, which is why in every past election extrapolating from early vote totals has been essentially meaningless. If McAuliffe has a decisive margin in NOVA it will happen regardless of banked early votes.

A significant portion of the votes Youngkin needs to win (he needs to cut into the D base to some extent) are already locked in for McAuliffe, that's not at all good for Youngkin.
Remember this is a state Biden won by 10.
Youngkin needs very good turnout elsewhere to make up for that shortfall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has this even been picked up on by the local news media?

No, because literally no-one cares except BigSerg and he doesn't live in any of the local media markets (or Virginia at all).

Hard to see it have much impact on the race if it won't even be picked up by local media.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This was reported on NBC29, a local news. Again, it appears that Non Swing Voter is blatantly lying.

If we're taking your word for it - NOW it's getting local news coverage.
Have any proof NSV was lying at the time he was posting?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We have reached 100 pages.

My new goal is now 120.

It took us 20 hours to go through 5 pages.
If we continued at this rate, we'd be reaching page 120 in 80 hours, which is around the time polls will close on November 2.
Remarkable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

wtf is happening

Atlas being Atlas, its usual self.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We have reached 100 pages.

My new goal is now 120.

It took us 20 hours to go through 5 pages.
If we continued at this rate, we'd be reaching page 120 in 80 hours, which is around the time polls will close on November 2.
Remarkable.

Much like early voting it will go at a faster pace the closer we get to the election.

Einstein's Fourth Law of Gravitation says that the posting rates get higher the sooner you get to polls closing on Election Day.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The plot thickens, LOL.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just saw a VA delegate ad.... why....

I see tons of delegate ads for candidates not even in my district.  They are just all deep in money right now.  This is the problem with being one of only 2 states with major elections this year.  The whole f'ing country is pumping money into all the local channels. 

Was watching tv earlier and the entire commercial segment, at least 5 or 6 ads were political ads, 2 of them from Youngkin in the same commercial break.

Yep had the same last night

The virtue of being in the DC media market.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mods please lock

This is the top ten best moments on Atlas since 2015. The show must go on.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If we don't police ourselves the mods might end up doing it for us.